A Look @: Nottinghamshire

Votes recorded for the 2009 European Parliamentary Election at the Nottingham City Council local counting area put Labour on 14,931 votes, Conservatives 12,351, UKIP 6,566, Liberal Democrats 6,412, Greens 4,599 and the BNP 4,469. These results reflect slightly higher support for Labour in Nottingham than the East Midlands Region in which it sits.

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction
Ashfield	Geoff Hoon	10,370	12.1%	8/15	LAB Hold
Bassetlaw	John Mann	8,256	9%	1/2	CON Gain
Broxtowe	Nick Palmer	2,139	2.2%	2/9	CON Gain
Gedling	Vernon Coaker	4,335	4.8%	2/5	CON Gain
Mansfield	Alan Meale	13,776	15.6%	1/33	LAB Hold
Newark	Patrick Mercer	10,077	11.1%	1/500	CON Hold
Nottingham E	John Hoppell	7,083	12.1%	1/5	LAB Hold
Nottingham N	Graham Allen	12,870	20.5%	1/500	LAB Hold
Nottingham S	Alan Simpson	6,665	9.6%	2/5	CON Gain
Rushcliffe	Kenneth Clarke	9,932	10.3%	1/500	CON Hold
Sherwood	Paddy Tipping	6,869	8%	8/11	CON Gain

The real Geoff Hoon will not be contesting Ashfield parliamentary constituency because of this. So Gloria De Piero (Ex-GMTV political correspondent turned Lab PPC) has the unenviable job of defending a large but weak Labour notional majority. I'm sure she'll put forward more than the two big reasons Ashfield residents should vote for her, while she's on the doorstep. Tory PPC Garry Hickton will make real headway but the expenses scandal is likely to have a smaller effect than he would hope. LAB Hold.

John Mann should be able to hold onto Bassetlaw if he manages to deal with Keith Girling. The problem is that R&T estimate that the electoral commission have shaved a third off his notional majority by adding Tory voters from Patrick Mercer's Newark constituency. The bookies have Mann favourite, but should David Dobbie (Lib Dem PPC) eat into the Labour vote at all, Mercer will take this. From current ward, European, parliamentary and opinion poll data, the Lib Dem's are likely to make gains at the expense of both Labour and the Tories, but more so from the former. CON Gain.

Labour MP Nick Palmer, who holds the smallest notional majority in Nottinghamshire, at just over two thousand-votes, sits for Broxtowe. You don't need UNS to see why he'll be gone after May 6^th, and besides the Tory PPC is Anna Soubry, 'the one from off the telly'! She'll take it. CON Gain.

Tory target seat number 90 sits Labour MP Vernon Coaker. He'll be trying to defend Gedling from Bruce Laughton. There's a real
tussle going on here. The Schools Minister seems to be struggling to overturn Labours unpopularity in the region. The battle rages on but the Tories may have too much here. CON Gain.

Alan Meale is the Labour incumbent for Mansfield. He has a large notional majority of almost fourteen thousand-votes and this should see him through the election. LAB Hold.

The boundary changes have increased Tory support in Newark. Almost half the constituency has been changed, but it's still firmly Conservative. CON Hold.

John Heppell will not be contesting Nottingham East. So Chris Leslie (parachuted in from Labour HQ) will hold off Ewan Lamont (Tory PPC). Sam Boote (LIB PPC) is the only threat here as there are signs of a LAB-LIB swing being highly conductive in pockets of the UK. If the third debate goes well for Clegg and bad for Brown, Boote could seize on Leslie's vulnerable local credentials to prove the bookies and pundits wrong. If a few anti-Leslie articles pop up in the Nottingham media and Lib Dems hold above 30points in the polls, this might be a last minute alteration for ME! However, till then. LAB Hold.

Nottingham North sits Labour MP Graham Allen. He was part of the failed Brown-Coup in 2009 stating at the time that "there is only one reason to have an election for Labour Party leader: to increase our chances of winning the next election". In hindsight, these are wise words. Brown will inevitably be the reason why many Labour MP's lose their jobs on May 6^th. However, Allen is just short of a thirteen thousand-vote notional majority and isn't going anywhere this year. LAB Hold.

Alan Simpson shouldn't be tarred with the same brush as other MP's standing down this year. He decided that he would not contest his Nottingham South constituency in 2007, for a 'greater calling'. Like Nottingham East & North, turnout here has been poor in the past and likely to improve this year, which leaves a lot of unknown quantities. Both Rowena Holland (Tory PPC) and Tony Sutton (LIB PPC) are in a position to mount a successful ousting of Labour in this constituency, but Tory support is slightly stronger and less flakey than the 'Cleggmania' running through the polls at the moment. More difficult to tell if its landed on Nottingham South than elsewhere. Lilian Greenwood will have strong union support, but there's a lot of Ashcroft cash being pumped into Nottingham South. CON Gain.

The shadow Business Secretary Kenneth Clarke holds Rushcliffe. He's a very interesting and popular member of parliament. No matter what your political disposition, this video is worth a watch. CON Hold.

Paddy Tipping is another Labour MP standing down this year. So Emilie Oldknow (Labour PPC), will be battling against Mark Spencer and Lord Ashcroft to hold this for Labour. If 'Cleggmania' continues to breakdown the Labour vote, the implications for seats such as Sherwood will be catastrophic for the Government. Sherwood is target seat number 159 for the Tories, way above the 116 needed to win a majority. It seems that Sherwood's historically popular policy of 'taxing from the rich to spend on the poor' may be increasingly overlooked as the Tories throw everything at this seat*. But on a serious note, this is an indicator of the conditions where UNS breaks down. The Tories are polling far less than previous but are somehow better able to take a handful of Labour seats with larger notional majorities than others. This seat will be a close race, but Kevin Moore (LIB PPC) may the final straw that ruins Oldknow's defence. CON Gain.

*Please excuse the terrible pun intended! I was so well behaved all the way through this Nottinghamshire post ;-)

 

Michael Turner