The Liberal Democrats managed to gain a seat in Thursday's Council by-elections despite the fact their vote share dropped in all four contests. They held onto their seat in Solihull (West Midlands) and gained one from the Conservatives in Conwy (North Wales). Elsewhere the Tories comfortably held a ward in Kent, and Labour received 70% of the vote to hold their seat in Manchester.
I'll start in Solihull where the Liberal Democrats came very close to losing a seat in the Olton ward. The vacancy arose following the death of Cllr. Honor Cox, who won the seat in 2008 with just over half the vote. The Conservatives required a swing of 8.5% from May to take the seat and they fell agonisingly short. After two recounts Claire O'Kane held the seat for the Lib Dems by just 9 votes. In recent by-elections the Liberal Democrats have generally lost votes to Labour but in this instance the Tories directly benefited, along with a Residents Association candidate. Labour's vote share stood still which could be as a result of the Lib/Lab coalition in control of Solihull. The reds would have been unable to attract any local protest votes. The narrow victory for the Lib Dems should allow the Council coalition to limp on until May, when the Tories are posed to take control on this evidence.
Solihul Metropolitan Borough Council | ||||||||||||||||
CON | LD | LAB | ILD | GRN | IND | VAC | ||||||||||
23 | - | 16 | - | 8 | - | 1 | - | 1 | - | 1 | - | 1 | - | |||
Olton | ||||||||||||||||
By-Election Candidate | Votes | Vote % | +/- | |||||||||||||
Claire O'Kane (E) | 1188 | 39.7% | -11.0% | |||||||||||||
David Price | 1179 | 39.4% | +5.7% | |||||||||||||
Andrew Mullinex | 280 | 9.4% | +1.8% | |||||||||||||
Hayley Watts (RA) | 228 | 7.6% | +6.3% | |||||||||||||
Ian Jamieson | 115 | 3.8% | +1.5% | |||||||||||||
In Conwy there was a bizarre situation whereby the Liberal Democrats had a chance to gain a seat in the Marl ward even if their vote share dropped from the last election. The by-election had been called following the resignation of Conservative Councillor Linda Hurr due to heath reasons. Hurr was the runner up in the 2008 by-election behind the solitary Liberal Democrat candidate, so the Conservatives required a 14.1% swing just to hold the seat! Although the Tories did manage narrow the gap the Liberal Democrat candidate Susan Shotter won the vote fairly comfortably. The Lib Dems' vote share dropped by 10% but it was Labour, not the Tories, who benefited. The result gives the rainbow coalition in charge of Conwy an extra seat over the Conservative opposition group.
Conwy County Council | ||||||||||||
CON | PC | IND | LAB | LD | ||||||||
19 | -1 | 14 | - | 14 | - | 7 | - | 5 | +1 | |||
Marl | ||||||||||||
By-Election Candidate | Votes | Vote % | +/- | |||||||||
Susan Shotter (E) | 389 | 40.4% | -10.1% | |||||||||
Julie Fallon | 270 | 28.1% | +5.7% | |||||||||
Mike Pritchard | 216 | 22.5% | +14.2% | |||||||||
Jason Landy | 87 | 9.0% | -9.7% | |||||||||
The other two by-elections that took place on Thursday were notable for the collapse in the Liberal Democrat vote. The polls in Kent and Manchester both saw the Lib Dems' vote share drop significantly in wards they were runners-up at the last election. In Kent, the Tonbridge ward was vacant following the death of Cllr. Godfrey Horne, who topped the vote in 2009. There were no surprises this week as Alice Hohler easily held the seat for the Conservatives as their vote share rose by almost 10%. Eighteen months ago the Lib Dems won a tight battle for second place as Labour came fifth. However, on Thursday the reds saw their vote share increase by 12% to position themselves as the main challengers to the Tories here.
Tonbridge (Kent) | |||
By-Election Candidate | Votes | Vote % | +/- |
Alice Hohler (E) | 3229 | 57.2% | +9.9% |
Emily Williams | 1216 | 21.5% | +12.2% |
Garry Bridge | 501 | 8.9% | -6.8% |
Hazel Dawe | 366 | 6.5% | -3.8% |
David Waller | 337 | 6.0% | -6.7% |
If the Liberal Democrats were disappointed with third place in Kent then the Manchester result will not make good reading. The vacancy in the Baguley ward arose following the death of Cllr. Eddie McCulley. Labour were expected to hold the seat but they will be delighted that Tracy Rawlins was able to attract over 70% of the votes as she cruised to victory. Unsurprising for a North West by-election the bulk of Labour's increase was at the expense of the Lib Dems, whose vote share dropped by over 20% to just 3.7%. Although their May result in this ward was strong compared to recent years it's hard to spin this collapse. The Lib Dem vote share was less than half their 2007 result and they could only manage joint fourth with the BNP, and behind UKIP. In fact, they were only two votes away from slipping to sixth place behind the Greens. Although the yellows finished a Councillor up on Thursday night there is no escaping the scale of their defeat in Manchester. As things stand the Lib Dems are set to lose a lot of seats in the North West Metropolitan elections come May.
Baguley (Manchester) | |||
By-Election Candidate | Votes | Vote % | +/- |
Tracy Rawlins (E) | 996 | 70.8% | +23.8% |
Ralph Ellerton | 160 | 11.4% | -4.8% |
Christopher Cassidy | 76 | 5.4% | -1.4% |
Yvonne Donaghey | 52 | 3.7% | -20.8% |
Bernard Todd | 52 | 3.7% | +3.7% |
Mike Dagley | 51 | 3.6% | +0.8% |
Honor Donnelly | 19 | 1.4% | +1.4% |
0 comments:
Post a Comment