By-Election Preview (20th January)

This week we're back to the regular Council by-elections, but don't let that put you off. There are some interesting wards up for grabs and they could be better indicators of the Liberal Democrats' support than last week's Parliamentary by-election. The Lib Dems are defending a seat in Solihull (West Midlands) and they also have a good chance of gaining one from the Conservatives in North Wales. In turn, the Tories will be trying to hold a safe seat in Kent and Labour are defending an equally safe ward in Manchester.

I'll start in Solihull where the Liberal Democrats will be desperate to hold onto the Olton ward. The vacancy has arisen due to the death of Cllr. Honor Cox. She won the seat in 2008 with just over half the vote, ahead of Conservatives on 33%. This victory was in line with other recent results as the Lib Dems have consistently beaten the Tories by around 1000 votes here. Under normal circumstances this would be an easy hold for the Lib Dems, but these aren't normal circumstances...

The Liberal Democrats' decision to form a coalition with the Conservatives at national level has really begun to hurt them in Council elections, even when the Tories are the main challengers. Their support has stayed at home, or headed to Labour, allowing the Tories to gain a few seats from them recently. To make matters more complicated, Solihull Council is run by a Liberal Democrat led coalition with Labour as the junior partners. The Council Coalition's slim majority has disappeared as a result of this vacancy and a couple of defections ("IDL" below = Independent Liberal Democrat). The Lib/Lab administration currently holds 23 of the 49 seats on the Council so hanging on to this one is very important. After the controversy over the alleged light campaigning by the Conservatives in Oldham will Labour be taking this one easy to help their local coalition partners?! Even if the Conservatives miss out here tomorrow they look set to regain control of Solihull in May.

Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council
CON	LD	LAB	ILD		GRN		IND		VAC
23	15	8	1		1		1		2
Olton
By-Election Candidate				2010		2008		2007
Claire O'Kane (LD)				50.7%		53.8%		60.2%
David Price (CON)				33.7%		33.3%		31.0%
Andrew Mullinex (LAB)				7.6%		4.7%		4.6%
N/C (BNP)				4.3%		-		-
Ian Jamieson (GRN)				2.4%		3.2%		4.1%
Hayley Watts (RA)				1.4%		-		-
N/C (UKIP)				-		5.0%		-

In North Wales there is another interesting contest where the Liberal Democrats could well gain a seat on the Conwy Council from the Conservatives. The by-election has been called following the resignation of Cllr. Linda Hurr due to heath reasons. Hurr was elected in 2008 when she finished second to claim a seat in this two member ward. The intriguing aspect of this result was that the one Liberal Democrat easily finished first, receiving more than twice as many votes as the second placed Hurr. This begs the obvious question – why didn't they run two candidates?!

Perhaps more bizarrely is that the previous election (in 2004) was contested by just three candidates. The (same) solitary Liberal Democrat won the vote with two Labour candidates fighting it out for second place. However, in 2008 Labour only fielded one candidate, and they finished last behind the two Conservatives and two Independents on the ballot. I guess it's safe to say this seat will be a difficult to predict! The Council is run by an anti-Tory rainbow coalition which enjoys a handsome majority.

Conwy County Council
CON	PC	IND	LAB	LD	VAC
19	14	14	7	4	1
Marl
By-Election Candidate				2008
Susan Shotter (LD)				50.6%
Julie Fallon (CON)				22.4%
Jason Landy (IND)				18.8%
Mike Pritchard (LAB)				8.3%

The other two by-elections this week are relatively straight forward. The Conservatives are defending Tonbridge, Kent County Council following the death of Cllr. Godfrey Horne. In 2009 Horne topped the vote for this two member ward. The Liberal Democrats, UKIP, the Greens and Labour all received over 9% of the vote at the last election so this split opposition should help the Tories' defence.

Finally, Labour are defending Baguley, Manchester City Council following the death of Cllr. Eddie McCulley. He comfortably won the seat last May with the Liberal Democrats quite a way back in second. However, traditionally the Conservatives have been Labour's nearest challengers in this ward and given the Lib Dems' recent by-election performances I suspect they'll drop back from their May result. In 2008 the Liberal Democrats received 10% of the vote, and finished fourth behind a Socialist Alternative candidate. A Labour hold is almost certain.

Tonbridge (Kent)			Baguley (Manchester)
By-Election Candidate	2009		By-Election Candidate	2010	2008	2007
Alice Hohler (CON)	47.3%		Tracy Rawlins (LAB)	47.1%	46.7%	52.6%
Garry Bridge (LD)	15.7%		Yvonne Donaghey (LD)	24.5%	10.1%	9.7%
David Waller (UKIP)	12.7%		Ralph Ellerton (CON)	16.2%	23.5%	20.0%
Hazel Dawe (GRN)	10.2%		Christopher Cassidy (UKIP)	6.8%	-	-
Emily Williams (LAB)	9.4%		Mike Dagley (GRN)	2.8%	7.4%	7.3%
N/C (ED)	4.7%		N/C (SOC)	2.7%	12.3%	10.4%
			Honor Donnelly (IND)	-	-	-
			Bernard Todd (BNP)	-	-	-