Lib Dems have the local advantage in OldE & Sad

It may seem a little odd to some that despite national opinion polls showing the Liberal Democrats have lost almost half their support they still have an outside chance of winning the Oldham & Saddleworth East by-election. Although constituency polls from last night indicate they are a fair way behind Labour it seems they will at worst finish a clear second ahead of the Conservatives. As Jay Blanc at UK Election Trend shows, if we apply a swing based on national polling the Liberal Democrats would drop to a poor third place as the Tories' vote holds up. But the local issues relevant to this by-election essentially reverse the two coalition partner's positions.

There are a number of reasons for this, not least the high profile of the Lib Dem candidate Elwyn Watkins following his successful litigation against Phil Woolas. The Lord Ashcroft/Populus poll also suggests that Conservatives voters are tactically switching to Watkins, a phenomenon I expect to continue following the publication of last nights surveys. But there is a third, and largely overlooked, reason for the Tories uncompetitiveness in this by-election and that is their lack of support at a local level. Although Kashif Ali managed 26% of the vote here in May his party did not hold any Council seats in the constituency throughout the last Parliament.

It's an established truth that you can't predict Parliamentary seats on the basis of Council seats and votes. The turnout for local elections is invariably a lot lower than at General Elections and so getting your supporters to the polling booth is as big an issue as finding new ones. Even when there are Council elections taking place the same day as a General Election, as in 2010, split ticket voting occurs in varying degrees all over the country. But it is always going to be difficult for a party to win a Westminster seat in a constituency in which it has no history of running succesful campaigns.

The table below shows the results for wards that make up Oldham East & Saddleworth during the last Parliament along with the cumulative vote shares across the constituency. The ICM poll before each local election is given for reference.

	2006			2007			2008			2010
Alexandra	44%	30%	12%	44%	37%	12%	29%	34%	31%	34%	21%	24%
Crompton	12%	54%	26%	17%	56%	22%	12%	59%	29%	20%	45%	26%
Saddleworth North	13%	56%	25%	20%	56%	24%	18%	54%	28%	15%	34%	22%
Saddleworth South	7%	53%	34%	7%	55%	32%	8%	49%	43%	12%	47%	41%
Saddleworth West & Lees	21%	42%	25%	19%	55%	26%	18%	56%	27%	26%	49%	25%
St James'	23%	37%	10%	30%	53%	-	22%	45%	18%	33%	39%	17%
St Mary's	20%	27%	8%	52%	48%	-	37%	56%	7%	49%	41%	10%
Shaw	14%	41%	10%	13%	56%	13%	12%	57%	16%	22%	48%	31%
Waterhead	31%	49%	11%	26%	62%	-	22%	57%	14%	35%	39%	15%
Total	19%	43%	18%	25%	53%	15%	20%	52%	24%	27%	41%	24%
Councillors	1	7	0	2	7	0	0	9	0	2	7	0
ICM	32%	24%	34%	30%	21%	37%	34%	19%	39%	28%	26%	36%

It's quite clear that the Liberal Democrats are the strongest party within Oldham East & Saddleworth, although the constituency is an eloquent example of their failure to win the Westminster seat despite their Council strength. The party received over 18000 votes in the local elections in May but Elywn Watkins received just 14000. Half of the missing 4000 went to Labour as they climbed from 12000 Council votes to pip the Lib Dems to the Parliamentary seat. In some respects this is a testament to the success of Phil Woolas' that ultimately disqualified him as an MP.

The other striking feature is the consistent lack of competitiveness from the Conservatives. Saddleworth South is the only ward they appear have any realistic chance of winning and they lag way behind the Liberal Democrats in total votes in the constituency. Not only do the Tories not have any Councillors elected from this constituency they only hold 5 of the 60 seats in Oldham, where they are the junior members in a Lib Dem led coalition.

Of course, this is a by-election and so activists from all over the country have been descending on this constituency to drum up support for their parties' candidate. The Tories do control one Council in the Greater Manchester Metropolitan Area (Trafford) and they have strongholds in Lancashire and, to a lesser extent, West Yorkshire to draw on. However, the Liberal Democrats control the nearby Stockport and Burnley Councils so they themselves have local reinforcements to call upon.

The Council make-up of the constituency is by no means the most decisive factor in this contest. The advantages gained from being the strongest party is enviably diluted in a by-election campaign. But the Tories' local weakness in relation to the Liberal Democrats is a key reason why they have such a small chance of winning this seat. The 2010 election shows that just because the Liberal Democrats hold 23 of the 27 Council seats in Oldham East & Saddleworth does not equate to a victory in the Parliamentary seat. The fact the Conservatives do not hold any goes a long way to explaining why they are the party getting squeezed in this by-election.