With just 24 hours to go before polling stations open in Oldham East & Saddleworth we'll take a final look at the race before the votes are cast. It's been an intriguing by-election due to the cause of the vacancy and as a result could yet go against the national picture. Although Labour and the Liberal Democrat's poll ratings have polarised since the General Election a combination of tactical voting and the rejection of Phil Woolas' campaign have meant Elwyn Watkins could still end up victorious on Thursday. However, although local issues can help produce surprise results the constituency polling from the weekend would suggest that Labour are likely to hold the seat.
As is typical for our by-election coverage here are the last few results from the seat for reference.
Candidate | 2010 | 2005 | 2001 |
Debbie Abrahams (LAB) | 31.9% | 41.4% | 38.6% |
Elwyn Watkins (LD) | 31.6% | 33.2% | 32.6% |
Kashif Ali (CON) | 26.4% | 18.2% | 16.1% |
Derek Adams (BNP) | 5.7% | 4.9% | 11.2% |
Paul Nuttal (UKIP) | 3.9% | 2% | 1.5% |
N/C (Christian Party) | 0.5% | - | - |
N/C (Independent) | - | 0.3% | - |
Peter Allen (GRN) | - | - | - |
David Bishop (Bus-Pass Elvis P.) | - | - | - |
The Flying Brick (OMRL) | - | - | - |
Loz Kaye (Pirate P.) | - | - | - |
Stephen Morris (ED) | - | - | - |
Phil Woolas has thus far been the only MP for Oldham East & Saddleworth since its creation in 1997. However, the Littleborough & Saddleworth seat which preceded the constituency was quite erratic during the mid-nineties. The Conservative MP Geoffrey Dickens had represented the area from 1979 until his death in 1995. The subsequent by-election was won by the Liberal Democrat candidate Chris Davies as the Conservatives were pushed to third place by Labour. Phil Woolas was the Labour candidate at the by-election and in 1997 he won the new constituency on a swing of 5.25%. Although the seat has settled down since then the 2001 election was of some significance. At the end of May that year race riots broke out in Oldham barely a week before the delayed General Election. The BNP performed strongly on the back of this and the hangover from this episode goes some way to explaining the nature of the 2010 campaign.
Fast forward to the present and the British
National Party are again hitting the headlines in Oldham. On Sunday a hustings took place in the constituency for which five candidates had been invited. As well as the three main parties UKIP and the Greens were offered a seat, but not the BNP. Despite this Derek Adams turned up and took a seat on the stage and refused to leave. He was eventually escorted from the premises by the Police. The episode has given the party a good deal of local media exposure, and I'd suggest a much bigger electoral boost than if Adams been allowed to participate. As this follows shortly after Jack Straw's comments on grooming at the weekend the extremist party may well enjoy a stronger performance than many had initially expected.
As for the actual hustings I get the impression from the articles that the advantage the Liberal Democrats have with their well known candidate is not as strong as it could be. With the luxury of opposition the Labour candidate Debbie Abrahams has positioned herself on the populist side of a local school building debate. Also, Elwyn Watkins has admitted he would have voted for the tuition fees rise for the sake of the party despite signing the NUS pledge. It's an odd kind of honesty that I doubt will play well at the ballot box.
Britain-Votes.co.uk don't do predictions any more but at this late stage hard to see past Labour. Although Nick Clegg is claiming the race is still 'really close' the reds seem to have the edge. I'm not sure Labour will secure the kind of majority shown in the weekend polls but I'd be surprised if the Lib Dems managed to pull off a victory.
I would like to correct any impression that the BNP were in any way hard done by or censored at the Delph hustings. As a candidate myself for Pirate Party UK, I had enquired before hand whether I could speak. The organisers made it very clear what the parameters were. Which they are entitled to do, after all we were all guests of the Millgate Arts Centre and the people of Delph.
ReplyDeleteI was perfectly happy to abide by these arrangements. The BNP activists were aggresive and threatening, which has no place in our democracy. Since their parting shot to the hall was to shout 'You're all pathetic' I can't imagine this will help their prospects any.
Loz Kaye
Pirate Party UK
I would think the BNP feel short-changed since they have been 4th since 2001 yet when the organisers of the hustings choose 5 candidates to speak, as the BNP candidate should be a bit frustrated coz they have done better than UKIP and the Greens in the past 3 elections. I understand their anger but to take it to that extreme is unacceptable.
ReplyDeleteThis could be a game-changer for Miliband. His personal ratings aren't great [although it really should be said that Cameron's were dire in early 2007].
ReplyDeleteA convincing win in Oldham would help change the narrative somewhat - and the media's attacks on him will have to be more overtly political, rather than merely potraying him as an IDS-type character. More politically-focussed attacks really won't go down well in an increasingly anti-Coalition atmosphere.
I think there are only two results which will make this by-election significant.
ReplyDeleteFirstly, a big Labour win, obviously with the gap increasing from the election. Or secondly, the Liberal Democrats being pushed down into 3rd or lower.
If it's close again, then I don't think many people will really take much of a look at the result and move on.
But still, even if the result was to be close then Ed Miliband will be relieved and pleased at getting that first win as leader.
@ Loz
ReplyDeleteNo impression was intended!