The Week in Polls (11-18 March)

This is the first of a weekly series on the state of the polls. As much as we are committed to looking at the election at a local level, the national picture can not be disregarded. And as the usual arguments against polling begin to surface, they are by far the best gauge of nationwide opinion and they are also, rightly or wrongly, heavily reported on in the MSM. The plan is to bring you the polls published during the last week with a bit of analysis on the way this election is panning out. The 'swing' column relates to the LAB>CON swing and can be compared to our constituency analysis in LAB/CON marginals and is based on rounded 2005 figures of CON - 33%, LAB - 36% and LD - 23%.

Fieldwork	Company	CON	LAB	LD	Swing
16-17 Mar	YouGov	36	32	20	3.5%
15-16 Mar	Angus Reid	39	26	21	8%
15-16 Mar	YouGov	37	32	19	4%
14-15 Mar	YouGov	37	32	21	4%
12-15 Mar	Opinium	39	28	16	7%
12-14 Mar	ICM	40	31	20	6%
12-13 Mar	YouGov	37	33	17	3.5%
10-11 Mar	YouGov	37	34	17	3%
10-11 Mar	ICM	38	31	21	5%
9-10 Mar	Angus Reid	39	26	18	8%
4-10 Mar	RNB	39	31	20	5.5%

With the election seven weeks away there is still al long way to go but the polling well underway. The number of companies surveying this election is already in double figures and the fact the Indian based RNB published their first poll this week shows that there is still time for more to enter the fray. The most striking trend in the numbers at the moment is the disparity between some of the pollsters. YouGov didn't report a Conservative lead larger than 5 points this week yet another internet panel pollster, Angus Reid, published two polls with a 13% margin for the Tories. Both can't be right and if this trend continues then it won't just be the candidates in marginals with squeaky bums on election night.

ICM has generally been considered the most consistently accurate company in recent years. Their two polls this week have shown a 7 and 9 point lead for the Conservatives, which puts their forecast in the middle of the two internet pollsters. As such, it's probably safe to conclude ICM are more likely to be in the 'right' area when it comes to the headline figures.

As for how all this looks for the three main parties, I suspect the Lib Dems are the happiest followed by Labour. Although Labour seemed to have hit a glass ceiling in the low thirties this is a lot better than their figures at the end of last year. If they do in fact keep the swing lower than 6%, as YouGov seems to suggest, I imagine they'll be pretty pleased. The BA Strike hit the news at the end of last week but despite the constant coverage this hasn't really corresponded in a significant shift towards the Conservatives. In fact they appear to have lost support and any gains that Cameron may have made from yesterday's PMQs performance look set to be wiped out by fresh Ashcroft allegations dominating the news cycle today. The Lib Dems, on the other hand, have enjoyed a good start to this week which is likely to be due to their spring conference at the weekend. They appear to have finally broken through the 20% barrier they've been stuck under for most of the year and it goes to show that when the third party receive some media attention they get a bounce in the polls. This will defiantly please the party in the run up to the campaign, especially as they now have the Chancellors' debate to show off their prize asset, Vince Cable, to the nation.

At the moment an average of the figures would put the Conservatives in the high thirties, Labour in the low thirties and the Liberal Democrats around twenty. I think the Lib Dems will rise slightly from this when the campaign gets fully into swing but the two main parties seem to be near their limitations. Labour will surely lose at least 10% of its vote from 2005 and this would leave them hovering just above the 30 mark. As for the Conservatives, it has been a while since they've been consistently above 40%. As the RNB poll shows, 39/31 is only a 5.5% swing which would leave them a couple dozen seats short of a majority on a universal swing. What would be nice is to see some more marginal polls, like this one from Populus, to see how the main parties are fairing in the key seats. Last week it seemed the Tories were heading for a small majority but a week is a long time in politics! Perhaps the next seven days will bring more marginal polls and we’ll be able to see the state of play where this election will be won and lost.