A Look @: Portsmouth

The other major metropolitan area in Hampshire does not look so good for Labour. They currently hold only one of the two seats in Portsmouth, and by a very small margin at that. Labour can't even draw any hope from the latest council election in 2008 as they lost one of their three seats in the city. Since the election the Lib Dems have gained control of the council following four defections. They currently hold the other Parliamentary seat in Portsmouth and will be hoping this helps them hold onto it.

 

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority		Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction
Portsmouth N	Sarah McCarthy-Fry	315		0.4%	1/12	CON Gain
Portsmouth S	Mike Hancock	2,955		4%	1/2	LD Hold

 

 

Sarah McCarthy-Fry is up against it in her Portsmouth North constituency. Labour have held the seat since 1997 but look unlikely to do so this year. McCarthy-Fry has seen her 1,139 majority reduced to virtually nothing by the boundary changes and it would have been difficult for her secure a second term with the original lead. McCarthy-Fry was the subject of one of the more bizarre expenses revelations when it was revealed she had a claim for hair straighteners rejected. Few would bet against the Conservative candidate, Penny Mordaunt, succeeding in her second run for Portsmouth North and I am not one of them; Tory Gain.

Mike Hancock's involvement in the Portsmouth Political scene is stretching into its fifth decade. First elected as a councillor in 1970, Hancock also held Portsmouth South for three years in the mid-eighties as an SDP MP before he was returned to Parliament in 1997 for the Liberal Democrats. Hancock has a large personal vote here and he'll be very difficult to shift. The Conservative PCC Flick Drummound, who contesting Southampton Itchen in 2005, has a much harder task than the size of her deficit suggests. Hancock is likely to hold this for the Lib Dems.