A Look @: Somerset (Part II)

Yesterday we looked at North Somerset which was dominated by the Conservatives. However, the neither of the two seats contained within the Bath and North East Somerset (BANES) unitary authority are currently held by the Tories. This is a situation they'd like to change! The council elections in 2007 didn't go as well as those in the adjacent North Somerset council but the Conservatives do hold the majority of seats. They over took the Liberal Democrats as the largest party but their haul of 31 seats is not enough to control the 65 seat council. Labour and the Lib Dems share the two Parliamentary seats within the BANES boundary and the Conservatives will be looking to take both off their opponents' hands.

 

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction
Somerset NE	Dan Norris	-212	0.25%	1/5	CON Gain
Bath	Don Foster	5,624	6.8%	8/11	LD Hold

 

Dan Norris won his, what was then called, Wandsyke seat in the Labour landslide of 1997 and has enjoyed comfortable and then not so comfortable re-election campaigns since. Sitting on a 1,839 cushion would have been difficult to defend but Norris has suffered at the hands of a boundary change that has completely wiped out his majority. Norris is also appealing against his expenses repayments, demanded as a result of the retrospective limits on cleaning allowances. Although this can't be helping his re-election chances his Conservative opponent, Jacob Rees-Mogg, is lending Norris a hand. The son of former Times Editor William Rees-Mogg has been somewhat of a gaffe machine, with the latest error of judgement occurring over Christmas. The Tory candidate was pictured with one of his employees posing as a constituent for a campaign leaflet. The local party are behind him for now but any more cock-ups and he'll be in serious trouble of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. As it stands this should be a Conservative gain, but it's one to keep an eye on!

Don Foster (LD) should have a much easier job of holding on to his Bath seat. Foster won the seat off Chris Patten in 1992 and has been relatively safe ever since. Foster has been asked to pay back over £4,000 over his mortgage claims and this is a big boost to his Conservative opponent, Fabian Richter. Richer is a former advisor of Shadow Universities minister David Willetts, and certainly has a chance of taking the seat for the Tories. But the Lib Dems should rally round their incumbents, at the expense of gains, and with a comfortable majority Foster should hand on.