A Look @: Surrey

Surrey is a conservative county. Represented in parliament by eleven Tory members, six of the eleven are defending majorities of over ten thousand votes. The council is dominated by Tories, 56 of the 80 seats are Conservative. The Lib Dems sit 13, Res Assoc & Independents 10, Labour 1. A number of the Tories' Shadow cabinet sit for constituencies in Surrey. Therefore, I hope I may be forgiven for the brief nature in which I explain my predictions here. Clearly there are more interesting counties in the UK which I should be dedicating my time to. So here they are.

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction
Epsom & Ewell	Chris Grayling	16,342	16.8%	1/500	Con Hold
Esher & Walton	Ian Taylor	7,727	8.1%	1/200	Con Hold
Guilford	Anne Milton	89	0.1%	1/4	Con Hold
Mole Valley	Paul Bereford	11,997	12.1%	1/500	Con Hold
Reigate	Crispin Blunt	11,093	12.7%	1/500	Con Hold
R'mede & W'bridge	Philip Hammond	12,349	14.2%	1/500	Con Hold
Spelthorne	David Wilshire	9,936	11.6%	1/500	Con Hold
Surrey East	Peter Ainsworth	15,921	16.2%	1/500	Con Hold
Surrey Heath	Michael Gove	10,845	11.3%	1/500	Con Hold
Surrey SW	Jeremy Hunt	5,969	5.6%	1/50	Con Hold
Woking	Humfrey Malins	6,612	7.7%	1/40	Con Hold

Epsom & Ewell will be held by Chris Grayling in May. He's the current Shadow Home Secretary. The small 2.5% boundary change estimated by R&T hasn't affected his 33.5% majority. Con Hold.

No boundary change for Esher & Walton, and Tory MP Ian Taylor will not be contesting the seat at the election because of rows over his expenses. So his replacement, Tory PPC Dominic Raab, is clear favourite to take the seat. Con Hold.

Anne Milton is Shadow Minister for Tourism. She won Guilford
back for the Tories in 2005 after Lib Dem Sue Doughty pinched it off them in 2001. Doughty is back, and she reckons that she may have support from more than the Lib Dem voters this year. However, I've looked fairly hard, and I can't see much evidence on the ground of Labour encouraging voters to go for Doughty in May. I'm not able to take this one too seriously at the moment. However, if the claim turns out to be true, I may change my prediction here. It would be interesting to hear from PPC Tim Shand, on Labour's strategy for Guilford. Otherwise, I'll have to assume that Doughty won't be able to muster enough support, despite the boundary commission's alterations 4.4% (according to R&T) alteration putting her within a 0.1% swing to victory. Unless turnout is abnormally high this year, Milton will increase her majority. Con Hold.

Sir Paul Beresford will still sit for Mole Valley after the election, despite his dodgy dentistry dealings. It would be difficult to throw away a twelve thousand-vote majority. No boundary change here. Con Hold.

Crispin Blunt will defend Reigate in May, even though he was told to stop claiming his Commons allowance by the authorities. Blunt sits in a safe seat. However, you may be interested to know that he still managed to swindle a load of public 'swag'; namely the £485,000 house. The BBC have labeled Blunt part of a group of MP's who have breached rules surrounding the declaration of overseas trips paid for by other countries taxpayers! I'm sure the people of Reigate and Qatar think he's worth it. I would love to be wrong but it's a Con Hold.

Runnymede & Weybridge is represented by Tory MP and millionaire, Philip Hammond. There were no boundary alterations here and he'll happily defend a 28.4% majority despite his second home claims. Con Hold.

David Wilshire is standing down at the next election because he feels that the exposing of MP's expenses will "undermine democracy". So it will be up to Kwasi Kwateng to defend Spelthorne for the Conservatives. Luckily Wiltshire built up around a ten thousand-vote majority, so Kwateng will have a huge advantage over Labour PPC Adam Tyler-Moore. Con Hold.

Peter Ainsworth was the 125^th MP to declare that they we're standing down at the next election. Surrey East is a Conservative safe seat and Ainsworth wants to pursue 'Arts and Values' outside parliament. Oh, and he tried to claim £957 for a radiator cover. No boundary change and over a fifteen thousand-vote majority, so its up to Tory PPC Sam Gyimah to walk this home in May. Con Hold.

Surrey Heath sits the Shadow Secretary of State for Children & Schools, Michael Gove. He had a cameo role in the 'expenses soap-opera', but has almost an eleven thousand-vote majority and won't have any problems being re-elected in May. Con Hold.

The Shadow Culture Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, represents Surrey South West. He has a large majority and put in a polished performance on the BBC's HARDtalk early in March. He will build on his 2005 gains. Con Hold.

Humfrey Malins is leaving in May. His London accommodation was said to have cost the taxpayer £240 a night. No boundary change, so Tory PPC Jonathan Lord will replace him at the election. Yet another Con Hold.

 

Michael Turner