A Look @: Oxfordshire

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed		Favourite	Prediction
Banbury	Tony Baldry	10,090	9.4%		1/500	CON Hold
Henley	John Howell	13,366	13.6%		1/500	CON Hold
Oxford East	Andrew Smith	332	0.4%		8/11	LD Gain
Oxford W & Abingdon	Evan Harris	6,816	6.7%		8/11	LD Hold
Wantage	Edward Vaizey	8,039	7.7%		1/100	CON Hold
Witney	David Cameron	13,874	13.4%	13.4%	1/750	CON Hold

Since 1922 Banbury has only elected conservative members to Westminster. There have been four in the last 88 years. R&T put the boundary change at 4.5%. It changes nothing. Tony Baldry will hold on to this seat as long as he likes. Con Hold.

After Boris Johnson was elected London Mayor in 2008, Henley 'ceremonially' elected John Howell to replace him. Like Banbury, Wantage and Witney this seat is conservative to the core, and has been for a century. A 5.8% boundary change from R&T won't make a dent. The Tories will have to get a pool going for 'guess the majority' to keep things interesting. Con Hold.

Unlike Banbury and Henley, Oxford East is interesting. R&T set the boundary alteration at around 10%, the effect of which has reduced Andrew Smith's 2.3% majority to a wafer thin 332 (0.4%). Oxford City Council may have no overall control, but Labour hold 23 of its 48 wards. The Lib Dems hold 16, Greens 7, IWCA 2. The Tories don't have a platform here, but Lib Dem PPC Steve Goddard, who contested Oxford East in 2001 and 2005, is knocking at the door. Although Smith has held Oxford East for twenty-three years, Smith's support currently isn't strong enough to overturn the effects of consistently poor national press for the Labour party. On the other hand, Lib Dem support has been consistently growing at the expense of Labour over the last ten years. It seems that third time will be lucky for Goddard. Lib Gain.

Oxford West & Abingdon has had a 14% boundary change according to R&T. Unfortunately for Lib Dem MP Evan Harris the boundary change has reduced his majority by just shy of one thousand votes. It will take a 6.7% swing from the Lib Dems to the Tories to elect Conservative PPC Nicola Blackwood in May. But there is sure to be a Lab-Lib shift that may prop Harris up just enough. I think Evans can stick this out. Lib Hold.

Edward Vaizey won't have any trouble defending Wantage in May. Elected in 2005, the 41 year-old is a member of a group of young conservatives sometimes referred to as the 'Notting Hill Set'. He's more than likely spent his first term solidifying his already more than adequate majority. He'll more than likely increase his majority. Con Hold.

Witney could be the constituency of the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Tory leader David Cameron. Lets not get silly about this. Con Hold.

 

Michael Turner