By-Election Preview (30th September)

We have another fairly busy week for by-elections with five top-tier vacancies and one District to be filled today. The closest contest on paper is taking place in Battle Hill, North Tyneside. Labour Councillor Mary Glindon was elected as the new MP for North Tyneside in May and she has since resigned from her Council seat. This has left a competitive ward open and Labour will be wary of the threat from the Liberal Democrats. Glindon won the ward in 2007 by just 11 votes and although Labour carried Battle Hill in May by a greater margin the Lib Dems won here in 2006 and 2008. Although the political climate at the time was a lot more favourable for the yellows they still have a good chance of gaining this seat today. Their candidate, Dorothy Bradley, lost her seat in 2010 but considering the advantage Labour enjoys with General Election turnouts she wasn't too far off. Bradley is likely to have a personal vote to draw on and so with a low turnout almost guaranteed Labour will have to work hard to prevent a loss during the week of their conference.

The vacancy in Tameside (Greater Manchester) is another seat where Labour will have to be wary. The by-election in the Longdendale has been trigged following the death of Cllr. Roy Oldham, who led the Council until May this year. Oldham was Labour's leader on the Council for thirty years and had been a Councillor for almost half a century, which makes his relatively small margin of victory this year seem fairly odd. As Labour hold the other two seats in this multi-member ward the loss of Oldham's personal vote shouldn't be too much of a problem but the Conservatives may feel they have an outside chance here. Labour enjoy a very large majority on Tameside Council so the political balance won't be affected whatever the result.

Moving to Wales now where voters in Gwynedd will be heading to the polling stations for the second time since the General Election. In July, Llais Gwynedd (The Voice of Gwynedd) successfully defended a seat on the Council despite the vacancy arising because the sitting Councillor resigned in disgrace. A week after that by-election victory Dafydd Lloyd Hughes resigned for undisclosed 'personal reasons' resulting in today's by-election in the Bowydd & Rhiw Ward. In a similar situation to the last by-election this will be a straight fight between Llais Gwynedd and Plaid Cymru in a ward where another party put up a candidate in the last full Council elections. The local party managed just managed to hold off Plaid earlier in the summer, and they almost secured 50% of the vote in this ward in 2007, so they look very capable of hanging on here. Incidentally, there will be yet another by-election in Gwynedd next week following the death of an Independent Councillor. Plaid run the Council as a minority but if they won gained both seats they would hold 37 of the 75 seats. This is certainly the most important by-election today in terms of local impact.

Elsewhere, Labour are defending the Brandon ward on the Durham County Council. This is taking place following the death of Cllr. Ronnie Rodgers and it's another Council with a second by-election taking place in the near future. Labour will be defending another seat in Durham in two weeks time and as they currently hold a slim majority on the Council they could do with a couple of holds. Back over to the North West again and the Conservatives are defending the Alderley ward on the Cheshire East Unitary Authority. This by-election is taking place following the death of Cllr. Liz Gilliland. The Tories have a large majority on the Council and a safe margin in the ward.

Finally, the District by-election in Sedgemoor (Somerset) could be a close battle between Labour and the Conservatives. The Tories were only 18 votes away from a gain in 2007 and they'll be looking to add to their already comfortable majority on the Council. However, Labour have been getting the better of the Conservatives in recent contests across the country so a it will be a tough ask. As usual, a run down of all the results will be up at the end of the week.

Battle Hill (North Tyneside)				Longdendale (Tameside)
Candidate	2007	2010		Candidate	2010
Lesley Spillard (LAB)	46%	46.8%		Janet Cooper (LAB)	43.7%
Dorothy Bradley (LD)	45.6%	41.4%		Rob Adlard (CON)	38%
N/C (BNP)	8.4%	-		Kevin Misell (UKIP)	9.3%
Wendy Morton (CON)	-	11.8%		Melanie Roberts (GRN)	8.9%
Dan Ellis (IND)	-	-		Anthony Jones (BNP)	-
Bowydd & Rhiw (Gwynedd)				Brandon (Durham)
Candidate	2008			Candidate	2008
Donna Morgan (LG)	48.4%			John Turnbull (LAB)	50.8%
Paul Thomas (PC)	35%			Maureen Smith (LD)	32.2%
N/C (GRN)	16.6%			Marc Krajewski (CON)	8.8%
				N/C (BNP)	8.2%
Alderley (Cheshire E)
Candidate	2008
Matthew Lloyd (CON)	51.1%
Oliver Romain (LD)	23.6%
N/C (IND)	15%
N/C (LAB)	10.4%

By-Election Watch (27/09/10)

Here's this weeks changes to the by-election list. The main page has been updated. This week's preview will hopefully be up on Wednesday. Tom's away for a few days though so it might end up being Thursday morning.

Council	Type	Ward	Party	Reason	Date
Camden	London	Kentish Town	Labour	Death	28th Oct
South Lanarkshire	Scotland	East Kilbride West	Labour	MP	28th Oct
Manchester	Metro.	Hulme	Labour	Arrested	4th Nov
Conwy	Wales	Eglysbach	Plaid Cymru	Resigned	TBA
Isle of Wight	Unitary	Chale, Niton & Whitwell	Conservative	Work	TBA
Swindon	Unitary	Moredon	Conservative	Resigned	TBA

*New* Page: Labour Leadership Result

We've got a new page on the top bar with the Labour Leadership result. Our Labour Leadership Correspondent (Chris!) has been quite busy recently but he'll be providing some analysis on Ed Miliband's victory during this week. This is quite useful as Tom is on holiday for the next few days, and so he'll be looking after the site. Looking further forward we'll be having a look at the UKIP Leadership election, which finishes on 5^th November (I don't envisage fireworks!), and we've begun our work for next year's devolved assembly elections. Of course, the by-election coverage will continue as usual, although Tom's break means that this week's are already scheduled.

Tories and Lib Dems swap seats as Labour continue to rise

Yesterday's by-elections produced a cosy seat swap for the two national coalition parties. The Liberal Democrats gained a seat in Teignbridge from the Conservatives but lost one in North East Derbyshire. As for the two Gateshead vacancies I previewed, Labour easily held both seats with a swing towards them.

The manner in which Labour cruised to victory in Gateshead (Tyne & Wear) is one we are becoming used to seeing since the General Election. Since May they have been capitalising on the fact they are the only main political party not in Government. Their terrible performance in the last few rounds of local elections has also helped as the party recovers ground on the other parties. Last night they were on the defensive in the North East following the election of Cllr. Ian Mears to Parliament and the death of Cllr. Frank Donovan. This had left the wards of Saltwell and Lobley Hill & Bensham vacant, with the latter the most at risk of the two. In the end there was no need to worry as Labour safely held both seats, with swings towards them and away from both the Tories and the Lib Dems. The balance of power on Gateshead Council was not under threat in these elections as Labour enjoy a large majority. But as Chris Mead of The Independent notes, these results will not make comfortable reading for Liberal Democrats in Newcastle ahead of their defence of the City Council next May.

Gateshead Borough Council
LAB		LD				LIB
45	-	20		-		1		-
Lobley Hill & Bensham
Candidate			Votes		Vote %		+/-%
Eileen McMaster (E)			1120		69.3%		+15.2
Michael Ruddy			298		18.4%		-5
Derrick Robson			101		6.25%		-0.7
Val Bond			97		6%		-6.5
Saltwell
Candidate			Votes		Vote %		+/-%
Denise Robson (E)			793		68.8%		+10.4
Laura Turner			196		17%		-5.2
Alan Bond			86		7.5%		-5.9
Janet Robson			77		6.7%		+0.7

Although it was business as usual the two top-tier by-elections the District battles threw up some interesting results. The Wellington ward on the Rushmoor (Hampshire) was on paper the most likely to change hands. The Conservatives were defending the seat but both the Liberal Democrats and Labour have challenged them in recent years. Last night's result was a hold for the Tories but the vote totals make interesting reading. The Conservatives vote dropped by over 6% which seemed to transfer to UKIP, who didn't stand earlier this year. But the Liberal Democrats failed to take advantage as they lost support to Labour. It will be interesting to see if this becomes a frequent occurrence, and so a pattern of Labour voters becoming less inclined to tactically vote for the Lib Dems can be established.

The Liberal Democrats also suffered badly in Gosforth Valley, North East Derbyshire District Council where they were pushed to third in a seat they were defending. The Conservatives gained the seat and Labour pipped the Lib Dems into second with a 13% increase in their vote share. Of course, the low turnout makes this result seem more extreme than it actually was. Labour's vote increased by just 27 votes on their top candidate in 2007 and the Tories had 100 actual votes less than when the came second three years ago. The big movement was in the Lib Dem vote total as they were only able to persuade a third of their 2007 voters to back them again. Quite an enthusiasm gap… [I know, I'm watching too much mid-term coverage!]

Last night wasn't all bad news for the Liberal Democrats as they managed a gain on Teignbridge District Council (Devon). They currently run the Council, with help from some Independents, and this gain from the Tories has left them as the largest party going into next years full Council elections. It this case it seems the personal vote for the previous Councillor was quite large and so the absence of his name on the ballot has cost them the seat. In the final by-election last night the Tories comfortably held Heathfield North & Central on the Wealden District Council (East Sussex).

There is also a by-election in Scarborough which took place today. I'll just update this post when the result is known.

By-Election Preview (23rd/24th September)

There are only two top tier by-elections taking place this week but there are a four District Council vacancies to be filled on Thursday and a further one on Friday (yep…that's not a misprint!). Unfortunately not many appear to be competitive but there's nothing like a Council by-election to produce a big swing. Both top tier elections are taking place in the Metropolitan Borough of Gateshead (Tyne & Wear) and we'll begin with them.

The two wards up for grabs in Gateshead are both held by Labour. Saltwell has been vacated by Ian Mears as he was elected as the new MP for Gateshead in May. He comfortably won this ward seat in 2008, and Labour holds all three seats, so it's unlikely they'll fail to win on Thursday. The other in Lobley Hill & Bensham is a lot more competitive. The vacancy in this ward has arisen due to the death of Cllr. Frank Donovan. He narrowly won in 2007, fighting off a strong challenge from the Liberal Democrats. In fact, although Labour hold all three seats in this ward, the Lib Dems were very close in 2006 and 2008 as well. Only this May did the General Election turnout give Labour a comfortably victory, but they won't have that advantage this week. Of course, the political climate is a little different now from the last few elections, evidenced by the defection of Cllr. Yvonne McNicol from LD to LAB yesterday. Labour are likely to hold this but they can't afford to be complacent. Either way, the Council is comfortably controlled by Labour and a loss would barely dent their majority.

Gateshead
Lobley Hill & Bensham				Saltwell
Candidate	2007	2010		Candidate	2008	2010
Eileen McMaster (LAB)	44.1%	54.1%		Denise Robson (LAB)	62.3%	58.4%
Michael Ruddy (LD)	42.2%	23.4%		Laura Turner (LD)	14.4%	22.2%
Derrick Robson (BNP)	9.4%	7%		Alan Bond (CON)	12.8%	13.4%
Val Bond (CON)	4.4%	12.5%		Janet Robson (BNP)	10.5%	6%
N/C (GRN)	-	2.9%

Elsewhere the Conservatives are defending the closest of the District by-election contests. Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats have come fairly close to defeating the Conservatives in the Wellington ward of Rushmoor Borough Council (Hampshire). The Tories may well benefit from this split in the opposition vote. Their majority on the Rushmoor Council is large enough to withstand a loss anyway. The Liberal Democrats are defending Gosforth Valley, North East Derbyshire DC on Thursday and Eastfield, Scarborough BC (North Yorkshire) on Friday. They should hold on to both seats. Equally, the two other District seats the Conservatives are defending are also in safe wards. They are in Ipplepen, Teignbridge DC (Devon) and Heathfield North and Central, Wealden DC (East Sussex). In both cases their only opposition is provided by the Lib Dems.

By-Election Watch (20/09/10)

Here's this weeks changes to the by-election list. The main page has been updated. They'll be preview of the two vacancies in Gateshead on Wednesday, as well as a look at a few of the District by-elections taking place on Thursday (and Friday!?).

Council	Type	Ward	Party	Reason	Date
Neath Port Talbot	Wales	Neath North	Labour	Death	14th Oct
York	Unitary	Hull Road	Labour	Illness	14th Oct
Hampshire	County	Andover South	Conservative	Death	21st Oct
Medway	Unitary	River	Conservative	Resigned	21st Oct
Swansea	Wales	Newton	Lib Dem	Personal	21st Oct
Manchester	Metro.	Hulme	Labour	Arrested	TBA
Moray	Scotland	Forres	Conservative	Health	TBA
Poole	Unitary	Poole Town	Conservative	Death	TBA

Labour Shade a Mixed Night

his week's by-elections produced some intriguing results. Although Labour failed to gain what appeared to be their easiest target in Hackney, they produced a shock in Nottinghamshire to take a County and a District seat off the Conservatives. The Tories also lost a seat to the Liberal Democrats on the Kensington & Chelsea Council in the wake of a scandal. However, the Lib Dems did not have a great night overall as they saw their vote collapse in wards in which they were not competitive.

I'll start in Hackney where the New River ward was up for election following the death of Conservative Cllr. Maureen Middleton. In May this ward elected two Labour Councillors ahead of Middleton and so the Conservative looked like they would struggle to hold here. As it was their candidate Benzion Papier easily won the seat, with a big swing towards the Tories. Labour's vote stood still as the Liberal Democrats and the Greens collapsed. Without any local knowledge this all seems a bit strange. However, the Labour blogger Luke Akehurst also happens to be the election agent for their campaign. He explains that the ward is "polarised between the mainly Labour-voting Woodberry Down Estate (near Manor House tube) and Tory voting Chassidic Jewish areas of Stamford Hill." Given the difference in turnout between the General Election and a September by-election then it seems getting their vote out was the key to the Conservative's success. Labour still dominate the Council with 50 of the 57 seats though.

There was much better news for Labour in the East Midlands though as they gained two seats from the Conservative in Worksop. Both by-elections were taking place following the death of Conservative Cllr. Michael Bennett, who held Worksop West on the Nottinghamshire County Council and Worksop South on the Bassetlaw District Council. They were both won on impressive swings and it leaves the two Councils extremely tight. On the County Council the Conservatives now have a majority of just three but in Bassetlaw this loss has left the Council virtually hung. The Tories hold 24 of the 48 seats with one vacancy in a safe Labour ward.

The Conservatives were also hit hard in Kensington and Chelsea but this is much more likely to be the result of local factors. The by-elections for the Cremone and Earls Court wards were taking place because two Conservative Councillors, Barry Phelps and Mark Daley, resigned in disgrace. They were engulfed in a scandal involving suspect images being send over the Council's email system and it would seem the voters in this London Borough were not impressed. Labour came within 19 votes of a sensational gain in Cremone whilst Linda Wade went one better for the Liberal Democrats and took Earls Court. The Tories still enjoy a big majority on the Council, and the Earls Court result means the Lib Dems now have three Councillors here.

Elsewhere the Liberal Democrats managed to hold East Chesterton on the Cambridgeshire County Council. The vacancy arose because the sitting Cllr. Siep Wijsenbeek moved to France and Ian Manning is the new Lib Dem Councillor for this ward. In Knowsley (Merseyside) Labour dished out the expected hammering in the Park ward, which was vacant due to the resignation of Cllr. Margaret Dobbie for personal reasons. Tony Brennan managed 86% of the vote to maintain his party's huge majority.

Elsewhere the Conservatives held Stanwix Urban on the Carlisle City Council and the Liberal Democrats held Cadley on the Preston City Council. The Lib Dems also held Northcourt on the Abingdon Town Council and Pinewood on the Whitehill Town Council.

Hackney Borough Council										Nottinghamshire County Council
LAB		CON				LD				CON		LAB		LD		MIF		IND			UKIP			SAI
50	-	4		-		3		-		35	-1	15	+1	9	-	4	-	2		-	1	-		1	-
Candidate			Votes		Vote %		+/-%			Candidate						Votes			Vote %				+/-%
Benzion Papier (E)			1567		57.2%		+23.6			Kevin Greaves (E)						1457			61.5%				+28.6
Jonathan Burke			1007		36.8%		-0.7			Alec Thorpe						755			31.9%				-18.9
Stuart Coggins			77		2.8%		-10.4			Leon Duveen						88			3.7%				-12.6
Benjamin Mathis			61		2.2%		-13.5			Ron Dawes						56			2.4%				+2.4
Darren Fraser			26		0.9%		0.9			Terry Coleman						13			0.5%				+0.5

 

Kensington & Chelsea Borough Council												Cambridgeshire County Council
CON		LAB					LD					CON			LD			LAB			GRN					UKIP
42	-1	9		-			3			+1		42		-	23		-	2		-	1		-			1		-
Cremone													Candidate						Votes			Vote %					+/-%
Candidate			Votes			Vote %			+/-%				Ian Manning (E)						832			40.9%					+5.1
Gerard Hargreaves (E)			602			41.2%			-9				Gerri Bird						663			32.6%					+17.6
Mabel McKeown			583			39.9%			+16.8				Matthew Bradney						334			16.4%					-8.4
Peter Kosta			180			12.3%			-9.6				Peter Pope						117			5.7%					-9
Julia Stephenson			51			3.5%			+3.5				Anna Gordon						53			2.6%					+2.6
David Coburn			46			3.1%			-1.8				Peter Burkinshaw						37			1.8%					-7.9
Earls Court													Knowsley Borough Council
Candidate			Votes			Vote %			+/-%				LAB							LD
Linda Wade (E)			703			44.8%			+24.3				55			-				8					-
Malcolm Spalding			594			37.8%			-7.1				Candidate						Votes			Vote %					+/-%
Joel Bishop			151			9.6%			-9.2				Tony Brennan (E)						650			86%					+6.1
Elizabeth Arbuthnot			49			3.1%			-0.8				John White						70			9.3%					-10.8
Jack Bovill			29			1.8%							Gary Robertson						36			4.8%					+4.8
Michael Enright			26			1.7%			-8.3
Antony Little			18			1.1%			+1.1