East of England – Post Mortem [Part I]

You'd think the East of England region wouldn't have been too interesting, and in many ways you'd be right. The area does not have dozens of key marginals like the Midlands or Yorkshire as the Conservatives held most of the seats anyway. But there is still a little bit to talk about, especially as the Labour vote collapsed to leave the Liberal Democrats in second place in the region. This post will focus on the few close LAB/CON marginals and over the coming days I'll be looking at how some Conservative MP's expenses' affected their vote and the crazy seats in Norwich, Luton and Watford.

From the notional figures the Conservatives held 42 of the 58 seats in Essex and they easily increased this to 52 by gaining 10 seats off Labour. With a national swing of 5% and a regional swing of 7% Labour didn't stand much of chance holding on to seats like Harlow (Tory Target Seat #5), Thurrock East & Basildon South (#17). I'm sure expenses were an issue in Great Yarmouth (#66) and Stevenage (#72) where the Tories enjoyed swings of over 8% from Labour to take them with room to spare. Anthony D Wright may feel slightly aggrieved as he felt his conduct was fine but he lost his seat on a swing (8.7%) almost twice the national average. Barbra Follett did not contest Stevenage following the controversy surrounding her security patrols but this was not enough to save the seat for Labour. Patrick Hall was dubbed a saint and this could be why he only suffered a 5.7% swing against him. But as he could only cope with a swing of less than 4.1% he lost his Bedford (#71) seat to the new Conservative MP Richard Fuller.

If you're keeping count that's 5 of the 10 gains accounted for. The Tories also won Watford, which was a three way marginal, and 'gained' Norwich North again after a by-election victory but I'll look at these later this week. It's the other three, which the Conservatives needed over 6% swings to take, that I'll discuss in more detail now.

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction	Result	Swing Achieved
Waveney	Bob Blizzard	5,950	6%	4/7	CON Gain	CON Gain	6.8%
Ipswich	Chris Mole	5,235	6%	4/7	CON Gain	CON Gain	8.1%
Thurrock	Andrew MacKinlay	5,358	6.6%	1/2	LAB Hold	CON Gain	6.6%

Waveney was the Conservative Target Seat #116, or as it was known on election night – The Holy Grain. If the Tories had taken every seat up to and including Waveney David Cameron would have secured an overall majority. Unless you've been under a rock for the last week it won't be news to you that he didn't; despite gaining this seat, and two others requiring greater swings in this region alone. I've already offered some initial thoughts on why the Conservatives didn't win some of the seats they, according to the numbers, should have won but for now I'll offer some explanations as to how they won these when they apparently shouldn't have.

Despite a majority of almost 6,000 Bob Blizzard was not the favourite to retain his Waveney seat. This has to be taken with a pinch of salt as the betting markets predicted a seat haul of around 320 for the Conservatives. In this case there are a few factors why a larger than average swing should have been expected. Blizzard was called on his expenses but I'm unsure whether this seeped into the local press. What's more likely to have cost Labour in Suffolk is the fact the have hardly any Councillors. Their vote collapsed in the 2009 Council election and they now have only four County Councillors. The General Election showed this loss of support was not just a one off protest. In the Waveney District Council elections in 2008 they faired slightly better holding 15 of the 48 seats but the Tories easily remained in control with 30 Councillors. So with the national picture it's not surprising the Conservatives were able to take a seat like Waveney.

The situation in Ipswich is quite similar. Although Chris Mole didn't do a lot wrong, again, his Councillor base wasn't that great. They are the largest group on the Ipswich Council but they only have a couple more Councillors than the Tories. And with nothing to defend in the surrounding area the Tories could bus activists in for this seat. They chose a solid candidate in Ben Gummer, son of a former Conservative minister John Gummer, and so it was clear they quite fancied taking this. I think the 8.1% swing is a reflection of the effort the local Conservatives put into this, rather than anything Mole did or didn't do.

Finally, Thurrock was very close. Although the odds were slightly shorter than the other two seats I felt Labour had a good chance of holding this. I guess I can claim to be half right considering the margin of victory! The Conservative candidate Jackie Doyle-Price beat the Labour candidate Carl Morris by less than 100 votes. But it seems my prediction that the minor parties would have a big say in the outcome didn't happen. I argued that would hold this because the BNP campaign seemed to be falling apart which would help Morris but UKIP polled almost as much as the BNP so they probably cancelled each other out. In the end I think the seat was lost purely because the popular incumbent Andrew MacKinlay wasn't on the ballot. I think if he'd run then Labour would have just held on.

A Welcome Break

After a week of soaking in the incredible political news, and taking a little break from writing about the election, Britain-Votes.co.uk is looking to the future. We still have Thirsk and Malton to elect their MP to complete this year's General Election and, of course, the race to replace Brown as the leader of the Labour Party. In the coming weeks we'll be running articles on both as well as continuing the post mortem on our predictions. When all that's wrapped up we'll begin to look at next year's Scottish and Welsh elections as well as analysing this year's Council election results. Labour secretly gained over 400 seats if you hadn't realised! And, sadly, there will always be Parliamentary and Council by-elections to cover. But on a brighter note we've been promised a Referendum on a new voting system, so that will be something to talk about even if it results in a No vote. If the British people do wish to switch to the Alternative Vote then this blog will be on hand to look at how this will affect the next General Election. Finally, there's always potential for a Government, especially a coalition Government, to fall; which would probably give us more material than we could handle right now! So, despite a quiet week, Britain-Votes.co.uk is for life, not just the 2010 General Election. Our meandering thoughts will here for all to see, and disagree with, until we are subjected to a dictatorship…!

A Look @: Wales- the Post-Mortem!

So the election is finally over, although the future government still remains to be resolved. So I guess it's time to reflect on some of our prediction and find out where we went wrong, and indeed, where we were correct, against the odds. I took the task of predicting Wales, in large part due to the fact I am Welsh, although I moved when I was young. Sadly this still made me more qualified to address this than the other Britain-Votes guys. Despite the tenacity of this I did manage to predict 37 correctly, getting just three wrong. I had already flagged my three incorrect predictions as 'One's to Watch' as I felt that the outcomes were either uncertain or could surprise.

Vale of Clwyd

Chris Ruane

4,629

7.1%

8/13

LAB Hold

I'll start with one I got right. As Adina pointed out in a comment on Britain-Votes, the Vale of Clywd constituency was seen by many as a real bench-mark for the Conservatives. The swing was right on the requirement for Cameron to win enough seats to govern. Obviously, as we all saw, on the night the results for the target seats around the 7% figure were actually all over the place. They failed to gain some seats which they had all but presumed theirs and yet won some well outside of the figure. To be quite honest, I never really considered this a seat for the Tories taking. Ruane seemed a perfectly decent MP for the constituency, he hadn't done anything wrong and it was essentially a contest between Labour and Conservative. I didn't expect that in the event Labour voters were dissatisfied with Ruane they would necessarily switch their vote to the Conservatives instead. What did indeed seem to happen here is that their vote share stayed the same as last time, until an extra 3,000 voters turned out, most of which were for the Tory candidate Matt Wright. Ruane suffered a decreased majority but still received 2,509 more votes than Wright. Evidently not the night that the Tories had hoped for, but at least it meant that I got this one right.

Ynys Môns

Albert Owen

1,242

1.8%

1/3

PC Gain

Ynys Môns, or Anglesey, was also a case of Labour seemingly unexpectedly holding on to a seat. My prediction was in line with the odds although I had my reservations at the time. I thought that maybe Owen's work on securing the nuclear power plant was positively received; however I assumed that perhaps something as divisive as nuclear power might also have its critics. Realistically I think I overestimated this and that the creation of jobs in light of the old plant closing was widely well received. In hindsight I should have thought this since the Plaid Cymru candidate Dylan Rees hadn't highlighted this in his campaign. However I didn't base my prediction on this alone, I also thought that with the other two seats in Gwynedd being Plaid seats they would make a real effort to claim Anglesey too. When I saw Ieuan Wyn Jones on the television saying that he was expecting a poor night I thought that this seat might not go Plaid's way after all. Having looked at the results here, Owen did lose a few votes so if Plaid were to build on their previous results they would only have needed 455 more votes to win here. Instead they lost 2,007 seats meaning that Owen increased his majority! I was banking on Owen losing some but Plaid gaining enough for a small majority, alas I was wrong.

Blaenau Gwent

Dai Davies

9,121

13%

8/11

LAB Gain

On the plus side Blaneau Gwent came in for me. This was my 'reputation' seat mainly because I'd gone against the odds and it came up when we were discussing our predictions. Some people felt that Davies' was quite popular and unlikely to lose this, especially given his majority here. I wasn't so convinced though. Dai Davies didn't win the 2006 by-election by a great stretch which suggested, to me, a decline of support for this 'People's Choice' movement. Nick Smith was running a good campaign and he had a good manifesto. I'm not sure Blaenau really truly abandoned Labour, Peter Law was popular and his success was in large part a protest against the women's only shortlist and he obviously was Labour. I just think that Blaenau had moved on from the shortlist debacle and so didn't feel the need to vote against a good candidate. In fact I feel that Davies' campaigning against Labour policies when he was Labour probably wouldn't take too well in this region.

Swansea West

Alan William

4,269

11.0%

4/5

LD Gain

I knew I was sticking my neck on the line for this one. Swansea West's Alan Williams had held the seat since 1964. I felt that Peter May was a good candidate for the Liberal Democrats, he seemed to be very active in this constituency and was being well received, he had a good campaign and was getting it out there. I felt that if ever there was a time for May to win this seat now. I'm not saying that Williams didn't deserve to be MP here as such, but it was unlikely to change hands whilst he was standing, he was pretty much part of the furniture. I didn't feel that his successor, Geraint Davies, was a poor candidate, he had experience even having been MP in Croydon, but he wasn't local. Whilst I don't feel that local MP's are essential, the Welsh are quite a patriotic bunch and they had a perfectly decent local candidate. The LibDems were also quite big news when I predicted this, although I never felt that their perceived successes would transfer into actual success and so I just thought that this would provide May with a little more support, I certainly wouldn't have predicted this result purely on Cleggmania (unlike the boys!). Nonetheless Labour still won here, but not by a lot, there were only 504 seats in it (Labours majority was 4,269 last time) and so though my prediction was wrong I can't help but feel ok about it.

Ceredigion

Mark Williams

218

0.4%

5/6

LD Hold

This result surprised even me. It looked like a really tight seat so when it came down to it I gave it to Mark Williams on the basis that he was doing a good job, campaigning well and seemed popular. I felt that Plaids candidate seemed good and was campaigning well but didn't feel that Williams had given voters much of a reason to look elsewhere. This said Plaid have done well here in the past and so I thought that maybe they could pull a result out of the bag, especially since the odds favoured them and the swing needed was so low. In the end I gave it to Williams. On the night Plaid's majority was reduced by 2,096 whilst voter turnout increased by 2,311. In the end Williams increased his majority by 8,324, not only more than I'd envisaged, but also making my prediction right!

Montgomeryshire

Lembit Öpik

7,048

11.5%

2/5

LD Hold

Unlike Williams, voter turnout had a more negative effect on Lembit Opik's future. Now I'm aware that my write-up of Opik was quite over-the-top, but I was hoping for some attention as Wales has few controversial characters so I thought I'd exploit the one I had! Despite this, I still thought he'd win. I felt that he was certain to lose votes, his exploits are quite widely publicised and they were unlikely to go down well with some people. For many a serious MP wouldn't behave like this. However 7,048 is a lot of votes to lose and I felt that anyone who had voted for a very liberal Lib Dem wouldn't switch their vote to the Tories, surely it would go elsewhere. With this in mind I thought that Opik would hold this seat, however, since the Tories had selected such a strong candidate in Glyn Davies, it would be with a much reduced majority. Opik lost 2,627 votes on his previous majority, this added on to the previous Tory vote would have left them short on 10,873 and so Opik would have retained his seat. Sadly for Opik 3,716 more people voted here than in the last general election, most of whom voted against Opik and so in the end Davies won with a majority of 1,184.

The ‘Weird’ Election: Initial Thoughts

Weird was a term used a few times on Thursday night, usually in relation to the un-uniform swing. Now, we've been saying for months that the swing wouldn't be uniform hence some our predictions. In one respect the electorate acted normally. LAB>CON swing was consistently LAB>CON; it just varied in degree. I'll discuss this in another post. The really 'weird' results were almost exclusively involving the Liberal Democrats.

Now, when we tallied up our predictions my immediate reactions was we'd over estimated the Lib Dems. This formed the basis of this post where I tried to show where the Conservatives were likely to out do our projection and snatch a tiny majority at the expense of the Lib Dems. Of course, what actually happened was Labour completely out did our projection at the expense of the Lib Dems! It's hard to be too embarrassed about this as it's a general assumption that Labour under performed in their last poll rating. And we weren't alone in our shock at the Lib Dem level in the exit poll!

But the surprisingly resilient Labour vote, and the non-existent Lib Dem surge, would not be considered weird if it was uniform; and on the whole it was. The weird came in CON/LD marginals. And my explanation? It's the expenses stupid! Because there were no big surprises with MPs heavily caught up in the expenses scandal it has been assumed to have played little to no role in this election. But the worst offenders quit. These are your Douglas Hoggs, your Peter Viggers and your Anthony Steens. The latter's seat, Totnes, was comfortably held by the new candidate, Sarah Wollaston, despite being quite a tight marginal on paper. As predicted, Steen standing down saved the seat for his party. Other's that stayed on survived because they were in such safe seats. I'm talking about MPs like Nadine Dorries, Bernard Jenkin and Hazel Blears. Seats like these reacted differently, but in the sense that the swing was exaggerated or limited depending on the party of the MP. So the real expenses story can be found in the LD/CON marginals in the South.

I'll concentrate on the following seats where uniform national swing(LD>CON 1.3%) or regional swing (LD>CON 1% and LD>CON 2%) flew out of the window, much to the confusion of the pundits.

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction	Actual	Swing
Camb. & Red.	Julia Goldsworthy	2,733	5.2%	2/7	LD Hold	CON Gain	5.2%
Newton Abbot	Richard Younger-Ross	4,573	4.75%	1/3	LD Hold	CON Gain	5.8%
Romsey & So'ton N	Sandra Gidley	204	0.25%	1/3	LD Hold	CON Gain	4.5%
Wells	David Heathcoat-Amory	3,040	2.9%	4/6	LD Gain	LD Gain	3.6%
Eastbourne	Nigel Waterson	672	0.8%	8/11	LD Gain	LD Gain	4%

If we hadn't believed that Cleggmania would have lasted we'd have looked like genius's! As you can see here and here our pre-debate predictions foretold the demise of Gidley and Younger-Ross but we switched our predictions because of the phantom Lib Dem bounce. Regardless of our failings, it's clear the swing is all over the place but lets' have a quick look at why.

Starting with Goldsworthy, who we always thought would survive, I feel her expenses problems could well have contributed to her downfall. As our write-up suggests the notional majority, and the unpopularity of the Lib Dem's locally, could also have attributed to her defeat but the rocking chair should take a share of the blame. This seat acted more like an open Lib Dem seat than one in which they have an incumbent. If we just look in Cornwall they had 3 incumbents and 3 open seats that they 'held' but two MP's had expenses issues. In fact, Andrew George in St Ives was worse hit by the scandal and just survived a 10.4% against him. But Dan Rogerson kept the Tories at bay enduring only a 0.3% swing. Then in the open seats the swings were: 5.1%, 4.8% and 9.1%. The last figure was in South East Cornwall where the popular Colin Breed had stood down and the other two were newly established seats. The expenses scandal took away the Lib Dem's traditional incumbency advantage that the party heavily relies on in the current voting system.

Younger-Ross and Gidley were the two MPs criticised for their conduct with regards to the Dolphin House payments. Again, they lost their incumbency advantage. You can compare Younger-Ross's (Newton Abbot) 5.8% swing to their other Devon MPs: Andrew Sanders (Torbay) – 1.1% swing; Nick Harvey – 0.3% swing. Then in Hampshire compare Sandra Gidley [4.5% swing] to Chris Huhne – 3% to the Lib Dems and the open seat in Winchester – 9.1%. Of course, Winchester was Mark Oaten's seat so that could have exaggerated the swing there!

But of course, more confusion for the pundits as the Lib Dems actually picked up seats from the Tories is seemingly strange circumstances. Wells is a personal victory for me as when I predicted Heathcoat-Armory's defeat in March I received this comment:

"What a ridiculous analysis that you make based on absolutely nothing whatever. On the ground the Lib Dems are going to be very lucky if they hold on to any seats in this area."

So when the Lib Dems held all three of their seats in this area and took Wells I smiled…a bit! Clearly Heathcoat-Armory's expenses played a part in his demise but it's worth having a quick look at the three swings against Lib Dem incumbents here to continue to prove this point. The were: 1.8% to Lib Dems in Taunton Deane (Jeremy Browne), 2.7% to Lib Dems in Yeovil (David Laws) and 0.9% to Lib Dems in Somerton & Frome. The fact these three MP's were expenses saints resulted in a 'normal' result for Lib Dem incumbents.

Finally Nigel Waterson in Eastbourne was another naughty boy. Not expenses this time but his conduct clearly adversely affected him and probably lost him the seat. The Lib Dem MP next door in Lewes experienced only a 0.8% swing from him to the Tories.

So although expenses didn't cause the massive surprises some were expecting there is enough evidence to suggest in certain instances they reason for some of the weird results. My academic work is on this issue and so you can look forward to more detailed analysis of the expenses scandal throughout the summer! I expect to find smaller LAB>CON swings against good MPs (eg. Gisela Stuart – Birmingham Edgbaston) and larger ones against those caught up in the scandal (eg. Roger Berry - Kingswood) and I'll put up a post about that later on in the week.

And so it is done. What next?

Well, with the exception of 1 seat, which is having its election on the 27th of May, its done. The election is over. The seat in question is a Tory safe seat so I think we can safely project a final result of:

Con: 307 Lab: 258 LD: 57 Others: 29.

A fascinating result, and a hung parliament. I'll leave Tom to discuss our prediction, but first some discussion of what next. Firstly what happened to the Lib Dem bounce? We have little data at the moment, but my educated guess is that the opinion polls reflected a lot of people who don't normally vote saying that they were supporting the Lib Dems, who then didn't vote...

Firstly Brown. Brown is attempting to patch together a deal with the Lib Dems. This will inevitably fail. Firstly a Labour-Lib Dem alliance does not have a majority. Labour are talking to the SNP and Plaid, and with the SDLP (a Northern Irish party that takes the Labour whip) and the Alliance Party (a Northern Irish party whose first MP I expect will do the same with the Lib Dems) and the Green (who prefer Labour by default) we get 328 seats, where 326 is a majority... This is laughable. Such a government cannot last. It will also not be able to pass proportional representation (certain to be a Lib Dem demand) because Labour MP's like Tom Harris will not accept proportional representation and will definitely rebel against it and defeat the bill. Clegg knows this. Brown is done. All talks of Labour heading any sort of government are not going to happen. This is WITHOUT noting that the Tories swept England, and it is impossible to imagine a government forming policy on English matters on the basis of winning OUTSIDE England. Its just not morally legitimate, and will be unacceptable to the English.

Cameron has stated that he wishes to form a coalition with the Lib Dems (Lib Dems would be in cabinet. Policy made jointly). The ideal situation for a new government is a solid majority, so that rebels have less effect and less negotiation is necessary. Once a coalition is formed the process of creating new legislation and passing budgets should theoretically not be that dissimilar from a normal government (negotiation between politicians still happens in British politics, it just happens within parties). This would be the stablest option, and provide a solid majority. There are some areas of agreement between Lib Dems and Tories. Nonetheless there is a fair amount of disagreement between Lib Dems and Conservatives. Particular areas are defense, crime, immigration, Europe and the electoral system. Europe I don't think is a huge issue. We are not going to enter the Euro anytime soon (the LDs are pro-Euro but as a 'long-term aspiration', it can be ruled out in this parliament), there are no treaties on the horizon, and the Tory plan to renegotiate Britain's place in the EU is largely unfeasible anyway. Defense... my feeling is that the Lib Dems would be willing to give in on Trident. Crime and immigration is tricky territory but doable, but electoral reform is a dealbreaker. Cameron has offered an all-party committee on electoral reform. Its not enough at all, however it may be a start and Cameron has not ruled out a referendum on electoral reform. However the Conservative Party is solidly against electoral reform and the Lib Dems will need to give up a lot and the Tories would no doubt campaign against it, if they did manage to get it, I suspect it is a bridge too far for the Tories (a new electoral system may mean the end of the very concept of a majority Conservative government). A coalition also risks alienating centre-left voters, and angering a large section of the Lib Dem membership, or even MPs. Coalition is unlikely.

It is possible that the Lib Dems could support a minority Conservative government on budgets and confidence votes (Queen speeches) in exchange for some key demands. This would keep a Conservative government going, and then their legislation would have to be passed on a bill by bill basis. An alternative would be to not vote on rather than actively vote for Conservative confidence and budget bills, but in this case its much the same effect.

The Lib Dems could refuse to work with the Conservatives altogether. The Conservatives could potentially still have a minority government by getting support from the nationalists, and from the Unionists in Northern Ireland. The problem with this is that those MPs will want extra money for their regions, which is the OPPOSITE of what Cameron wants, and will mean he has to cut deeper in England, which would exceedingly dangerous for his position.

Another thing the Tories could do is govern as if they have a majority anyway, and bank on at least one or two opposition parties being nervous enough about the consequences to pass confidence bills. This has been the norm in Canada for some time and they have a system that shockingly resembles our own. This, however, runs the risk of unstable governance, and the other parties have to be aware that if the Conservatives poll well they may well be convinced they can secure a majority and take the country into a fresh election at will. It also runs the risk that if the Tories poll terribly the opposition will take them down to secure victory.

The Lib Dems however must attempt to make a multi-party government work, for two reasons. Firstly, if this parliament collapses and there is a new election then Cameron can legitimately say 'Hung parliaments are unstable. Look at the last one. Vote for me and a solid Conservative majority to actually get things done. Not a mess.' This line will work a lot more effectively than in this campaign, as the immediate evidence will be there. The Lib Dems also need to prove to the British public that multi-party government CAN work in 21st century Britain. This may well be vital if the general public are to accept the central Lib Dem policy - proportional representation. If a new election is called then it will feed into the conception that political parties cannot work together and that only single-party governance can provide stability. Unfortunately for the Lib Dems Cameron is not stupid. He is aware of this, and may be able to stop the Lib Dems short of PR. However giving up PR will wrack the party to its bones. It would be giving up its holy grail, and its best shot at that holy grail in 90 years. That said, there is nothing to stop the Lib Dems supporting the Conservatives AND attempting to pass a bill forcing a referendum on AV (which Labour has in its manifesto) with Labour. AV is NOT proportional, but it would help the Lib Dems, and some see it as a first step to a proportional system. That said, it is unclear whether Labour would still accede to this, manifesto or no manifesto, or whether the necessary other seats will be found and cutting deals with both parties at the same time will not go down well.

Whatever happens, the next few days are going to be fascinating, and event-filled. The various permutations are incredible, and what happens next will be truly historical.

GE2010: South West

Here is a summary of our South West predictions. If you'd like to find out more about the 'Look @' format follow this link. If you'd like to see how we arrived at any predictions then click on the 'County' link and it will take you to the post discussing that constituency.

Party	BV	Actual
CON	29	36
LAB	6	4
LD	20	15

 

Constituency	County/Council	Current MP		Prediction	Actual
Bristol East	Bristol	Kerry McCarthy		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Bristol North West	Bristol	Doug Naysmith		CON Gain	CON Gain
Bristol South	Bristol	Dawn Primarolo		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Bristol West	Bristol	Stephen Williams		LD Hold	LD Hold
Cambourne & Redruth	Cornwall	Julia Goldsworthy		LD Hold	CON Gain
Cornwall North	Cornwall	Dan Rogerson		LD Hold	LD Hold
Cornwall South East	Cornwall	Colin Breed		LD Hold	CON Gain
St Austell & Newquay	Cornwall			LD Hold	LD Hold
St Ives	Cornwall	Andrew George		LD Hold	LD Hold
Truro & Falmouth	Cornwall	Matthew Taylor		LD Hold	CON Gain
Devon Central	Devon			LD Gain	CON Hold
Devon East	Devon	Hugo Swire		CON Hold	CON Hold
Devon North	Devon	Nick Harvey		LD Hold	LD Hold
Devon South West	Devon	Gary Streeter		CON Hold	CON Hold
Devon West & Torridge	Devon	Geoffrey Cox		CON Hold	CON Hold
Exeter	Devon	Ben Bradshaw		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Newton Abbott	Devon	Richard Younger-Ross		LD Hold	CON Gain
Plymouth Moor View	Devon	Alison Seabeck		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport	Devon	Linda Gilroy		LAB Hold	CON Gain
Tiverton & Honiton	Devon	Angela Browning		CON Hold	CON Hold
Torbay	Devon	Adrian Sanders		LD Hold	LD Hold
Totnes	Devon	Anthony Steen		CON Hold	CON Hold
Christchurch	Dorset	Christopher Chope		CON Hold	CON Hold
Dorset North	Dorset	Robert Walter		CON Hold	CON Hold
Dorset South	Dorset	Jim Knight		CON Gain	CON Gain
Dorset West	Dorset	Oliver Letwin		CON Hold	CON Hold
Dorset Mid & Poole North	Dorset and Poole	Annette Brooke		LD Hold	LD Hold
Poole	Poole	Robert Syms		CON Hold	CON Hold
Bournemouth West	B'mouth and Poole	Sir John Butterfill		CON Hold	CON Hold
Bournemouth East	Bournemouth	Tobias Ellwood		CON Hold	CON Hold
Cheltenham	Gloucestershire	Martin Horwood		LD Hold	LD Hold
Cotswolds	Gloucestershire	Geoffrey Clifton-Brown		CON Hold	CON Hold
Forest of Dean	Gloucestershire	Mark Harper		CON Hold	CON Hold
Gloucester	Gloucestershire	Parmjit Dhanda		LAB Hold	CON Gain
Stroud	Gloucestershire	David Drew		CON Gain	CON Gain
Tewkesbury	Gloucestershire	Laurence Robertson		CON Hold	CON Hold
Filton & Bradley Stoke	Gloucestershire , South			CON Hold	CON Hold
Kingswood	Gloucestershire , South	Roger Berry		CON Gain	CON Gain
Thornbury & Yate	Gloucestershire , South	Steve Webb		LD Hold	LD Hold
Bath	Bath & North East Somerset	Don Foster		LD Hold	LD Hold
Somerset North East	Bath & North East Somerset	Dan Norris		CON Hold	CON Hold
Somerset North	North Somerset	Dr Liam Fox		CON Hold	CON Hold
Weston-Super-Mare	North Somerset	John Penrose		CON Hold	CON Hold
Somerset West & Bridgwater	Somerset	Ian Liddell-Grainger		CON Hold	CON Hold
Somerton & Frome	Somerset	David Heath		LD Hold	LD Hold
Taunton Deane	Somerset	Jeremy Browne		LD Hold	LD Hold
Wells	Somerset	David Heathcoat-Amory		LD Gain	LD Gain
Yeovil	Somerset	David Laws		LD Hold	LD Hold
Swindon North	Swindon	Michael Wills		CON Gain	CON Gain
Swindon South	Swindon	Anne Snelgrove		CON Gain	CON Gain
Chippenham	Wiltshire			LD Hold	LD Hold
Devizes	Wiltshire	Michael Ancram		CON Hold	CON Hold
Salisbury	Wiltshire	Robert Key		CON Hold	CON Hold
Wiltshire North	Wiltshire	James Gray		CON Hold	CON Hold
Wiltshire South West	Wiltshire	Andrew Murrison		CON Hold	CON Hold

 

Nb. In Somerset North East the boundary changes have switched the notional 2005 winner from Labour to the Conservatives.