Labour win both by-elections.

Labour enjoyed victories in both of this week's by-elections, with a particularly good result in North Ayrshire to easily hold off the Scottish Nationalists. The other win was in Bolsover where they regained a ward they had lost to an Independent in recent years.

Bucking the recent trend, this week's Scottish by-election produced a Labour hold on a greatly increased vote share on 2007.  They didn't quite manage to make the quota of 1,965 in the first round, winning 49.2% of the first preferences, but after the four rounds of elimination they reached the quota with a very comfortable majority.

Saltcoats & Stevenston
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Jim Montomerie (E)	1914	48.7%	+13.9%
Nan Wallace	1306	33.2%	+1.3%
Chris Barr	284	7.2%	-0.4%
Jimmy Miller	211	5.4%	+5.4%
Gerard Pollock	114	2.9%	+2.9%
Gordon Bain	56	1.4%	+1.4%
Louise McDaid	43	1.1%	+1.1%

It is not certain why the SNP failed to make a big increase in their vote here.  The Holyrood constituency containing this ward, Cunninghame North, has been SNP since 2007 and in May saw a 10% swing from Labour to the SNP.  Although there may have been a local issue I've overlooked, I have a feeling what may have happened here is that the Independent candidate from 2007 who polled very well has taken his votes overwhelmingly from normal Labour voters.  With that candidate not standing, the first preferences he took in 2007 have returned to Labour, seemingly boosting their vote by a substantial margin.

Amongst the also-rans the Liberal Democrat result is notably bad, coming in 6th place behind the Pensioners Party and an Independent, and only narrowly beating the Socialist Labour Party into last place.  Socialist Labour's transfers unsurprisingly favoured Labour, while the Lib Dems' favoured the SNP and then the Tories.  Historically, Lib Dem transfers around Greater Glasgow have been good for Labour, which is strongly suggestive of left-leaning former Lib Dem voters deserting the party.

The Pensioners Party managed a very reasonable share of the vote for a minor party in a ward they've never contested before, coming fairly close to the Tories for third place, and it was their transfers that finally pushed Labour over the quota. KK

		Stage
By-Election Candidate	1stP	1	2			3			4			5
Jim Montomerie	49.3%	1914	13	30%	1927	9	16%	1936	27	22%	1963	76	32%	2039
Nan Wallace	33.6%	1306	5	12%	1311	15	26%	1326	37	30%	1363	62	26%	1425
Chris Barr	7.3%	284	2	5%	286	11	19%	297	11	9%	308	23	10%	331
Jimmy Miller (Pen)	5.4%	211	6	14%	217	5	9%	222	18	15%	240	-240
Gerard Pollock (Ind)	2.9%	114	3	7%	117	6	11%	123	-123
Gordon Bain	1.4%	56	1	2%	57	-57
Louise McDaid	1.1%	43	-43
Non-transferable			13	30%	13	11	19%	24	30	24%	54	79	33%	133

With Labour safely holding their seat, their minority administration will be safe to continue through to the end of the current term next May.  The potential confusion around the role of the 2007 Independent in these results though makes it hard to extrapolate any prediction for what the results will be like then.

North Ayrshire Council
Lab		SNP		Ind		Con		LD
12	-	8	-	5	-	3	-	2	-

Labour also managed a win in the other by-election taking place on Thursday, which had looked a lot more expected than their triumph in North Ayrshire. The by-election in Shirebrook South West, Bolsover DC was taking place following the death of Independent Councillor Alan Waring. He had gained the seat in 2007 but before that Labour were not challenged in this ward. With no Independent candidate standing in this by-election the seat was expected to switch back to Labour and Sandra Peake enjoyed a comfortable victory. She received almost half the votes cast and had a margin of almost 100 votes over the Greens, who had a strong showing in second place taking 25% of the vote in a ward they hadn't stood in before. Labour have a huge majority in Bolsover with the next full Council elections due in 2013. TH

Shirebrook South West
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %
Sandra Peake (E)	200	47.4%
Ian Musgrove	103	24.4%
Bob Newholm	76	18.0%
Tom Key	43	10.2%