Wednesday 31 August 2011

August 2011 Local By-election Summary


Votes Cast
% Votes Cast
Seats Won
Change
Labour
4,536
30.91%
4
+1
Conservatives
3,022
20.59%
0
-2
Lib Dems
2,345
15.98%
2
+2
SNP
2,103
14.33%
1
Unchanged
Independents
1,286
8.76%
1
-1
Green Party
966
6.58%
0
Unchanged
Other Parties
254
1.73%
0
Unchanged
UKIP
121
0.82%
0
Unchanged
BNP
43
0.29%
0
Unchanged

GAINS and LOSSES
Labour GAINS: Shirebrook South West on Bolsover (from Ind)
Liberal Democrat GAINS: South Petherton on Somerset (from Con), Eton and Castle on Windsor and Maidenhead (from Con)


Scotland since the Parliamentary elections has been virtually a one party state of late. Whilst the Liberal Democrats have chosen the former MP Willie Rennie as their new leader with only 5 MSP’s out of 129 they are not in a position to influence policy and with both Conservative and Labour still yet to finalise a leadership election timetable it is perhaps no surprise that the SNP held their Edinburgh City Centre ward and were second to Labour in Saltcoats.

Now, I hope that Kris doesn’t mind me standing on his toes slightly, but I thought it would be interested to see what has been happening with regard to the SNP since the Westminster election. In 2010, it is fair to say that the SNP were hoping for a lot more. Ochil (0.75% swing from Lab), Dundee West (7.28% swing from Lab) and Kilmarnock (9.81% swing from Lab) all swung to Lab and in the seats they were defending there was a headline swing of 1% to the Conservatives.

Since then there have been 14 Scottish by-elections with the SNP winning five of them (making a net gain of one) which follows their polling trends very nicely

Ward
Date
Con
Lab
Lib Dem
SNP
Others
Liberton
Sept 2010
+1%
+12%
-4%
-5%
-7%
E Kil W
Oct 2010
+6%
0%
-4%
-2%
+3%
Kilpatrick
Mar 2011
-1%
+4%
0%
0%
-3%
Paisley S
Mar 2011
-7%
+12%
-9%
+8%
-19%
Dyce
May 2011
+1%
-2%
-15%
+15%
+2%
Bo’ness
June 2011
-5%
0%
0%
+11%
-6%
City C
Aug 2011
+4%
+2%
-13%
+3%
+3%
Saltcoats
Aug 2011
-1%
+14%
+1%
+1%
-23%
Average

0%
+5%
-6%
+4%
-6%

All of which confirms the Lib Dem disaster that they have been suffering from since the formation of the coalition and with 166 councillors defending their seats in next year’s election, if I were a Scottish Lib Dem (even under STV) I would have serious thoughts about either standing down or standing as an Independent.

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