Wednesday, 31 August 2011

August 2011 Local By-election Summary


Votes Cast
% Votes Cast
Seats Won
Change
Labour
4,536
30.91%
4
+1
Conservatives
3,022
20.59%
0
-2
Lib Dems
2,345
15.98%
2
+2
SNP
2,103
14.33%
1
Unchanged
Independents
1,286
8.76%
1
-1
Green Party
966
6.58%
0
Unchanged
Other Parties
254
1.73%
0
Unchanged
UKIP
121
0.82%
0
Unchanged
BNP
43
0.29%
0
Unchanged

GAINS and LOSSES
Labour GAINS: Shirebrook South West on Bolsover (from Ind)
Liberal Democrat GAINS: South Petherton on Somerset (from Con), Eton and Castle on Windsor and Maidenhead (from Con)


Scotland since the Parliamentary elections has been virtually a one party state of late. Whilst the Liberal Democrats have chosen the former MP Willie Rennie as their new leader with only 5 MSP’s out of 129 they are not in a position to influence policy and with both Conservative and Labour still yet to finalise a leadership election timetable it is perhaps no surprise that the SNP held their Edinburgh City Centre ward and were second to Labour in Saltcoats.

Now, I hope that Kris doesn’t mind me standing on his toes slightly, but I thought it would be interested to see what has been happening with regard to the SNP since the Westminster election. In 2010, it is fair to say that the SNP were hoping for a lot more. Ochil (0.75% swing from Lab), Dundee West (7.28% swing from Lab) and Kilmarnock (9.81% swing from Lab) all swung to Lab and in the seats they were defending there was a headline swing of 1% to the Conservatives.

Since then there have been 14 Scottish by-elections with the SNP winning five of them (making a net gain of one) which follows their polling trends very nicely

Ward
Date
Con
Lab
Lib Dem
SNP
Others
Liberton
Sept 2010
+1%
+12%
-4%
-5%
-7%
E Kil W
Oct 2010
+6%
0%
-4%
-2%
+3%
Kilpatrick
Mar 2011
-1%
+4%
0%
0%
-3%
Paisley S
Mar 2011
-7%
+12%
-9%
+8%
-19%
Dyce
May 2011
+1%
-2%
-15%
+15%
+2%
Bo’ness
June 2011
-5%
0%
0%
+11%
-6%
City C
Aug 2011
+4%
+2%
-13%
+3%
+3%
Saltcoats
Aug 2011
-1%
+14%
+1%
+1%
-23%
Average

0%
+5%
-6%
+4%
-6%

All of which confirms the Lib Dem disaster that they have been suffering from since the formation of the coalition and with 166 councillors defending their seats in next year’s election, if I were a Scottish Lib Dem (even under STV) I would have serious thoughts about either standing down or standing as an Independent.

By-Election Preview (1st September)

It's a quiet start to a busy month this week with just one by-election taking place tomorrow, but at least it is an interesting one. The vacancy is in the Keswick ward on the Allerdale Borough Council (Cumbria); the very north west of North West England! The by-election is being held following the resignation of Independent Councillor David Robinson for health reasons.

It is customary to have a look at the previous result to help work out what might happen in a by-election but unfortunately there hasn't been a contested election for this District Council ward since 2003. Way back then the Liberal Democrats topped the poll for the three member ward with Conservative and Labour candidates edging out an Independent. Robinson was then the Lib Dem candidate in 2007 and he, along with a Labour and Conservative candidate, was returned unopposed. At some point during that term Robinson left the Liberal Democrats, who in turn did not run a candidate against him in this May's uncontested election.

As if all that wasn't odd enough there is yet more intrigue to be found in a handy by-election that took place this May. It was for the Keswick & Derwent division on Cumbria County Council and as the Keswick District ward accounts for over three quarters of the County division's electorate the result is very useful:

Keswick & Derwent

May Candidates

2011

Ronald Munby (Con)

32.3%

David Robinson (Ind)

25.4%

Martin Pugmire (LD)

24.2%

Brian Cope (Lab)

18.1%

The Conservatives won the County by-election thanks largely to what I think is fair to assume is a split Liberal Democrat vote given Robinson's previous allegiance. Not only is it interesting that Robinson quit for health reasons less than two months after he had attempted to serve on yet another Council (he was also Mayor of Keswick before his resignation) but the Tories are not standing in this District by-election. Granted, the Tories emphatic victory in the Derwent District ward would indicate they aren't as strong in Keswick, but their absence from the ballot seems a little suspicious.

All of this surely leaves Martin Pugmire as the favourite given the area seems to lean Liberal Democrat and the fact he fought an election here just a few months ago. However, Labour have extra incentive to win this contest as victory would give them a one seat majority on the Council. Suddenly the lack of a Tory candidate is less of a surprise…?

Allerdale Borough Council

Lab

Con

Ind

NA

Vac

28

12

11

4

1

Keswick

By-Election Candidate

Flic Crowley (Grn)

Tony Lywood (Lab)

Martin Pugmire (LD)


 

Tom Harris

Monday, 29 August 2011

By-Election Watch (29/08/11)

Here are this week's changes to the by-election page:

Council

Type

Ward

Defending Party

Reason

Date

Cherwell

District

Bicester North

Conservative

Death

29th Sep

Watford

District

Nascott

Lib Dem

Resigned

29th Sep

Coventry

Metro.

Lower Stoke

Labour

Death

6th Oct

  

  

  

  

  

  

Great Yarmouth

District

Bradwell South & Hopton

Conservative

Death

TBA

Leicestershire

County

Syston Ridgeway

Conservative

Death

TBA

Newcastle-under-Lyme

District

Newchapel

Conservative

Resigned

TBA

North Lanarkshire

Scotland

Coatbridge North

Labour

Death

TBA

Watford

District

Vicarage

Labour

Resigned

TBA

There is just the one by-election this week but we'll still have a LiveBlog going on Thursday night. There are currently 17 vacancies without a date set so this autumn is set to be quite busy!

Saturday, 27 August 2011

Labour win both by-elections.

Labour enjoyed victories in both of this week's by-elections, with a particularly good result in North Ayrshire to easily hold off the Scottish Nationalists. The other win was in Bolsover where they regained a ward they had lost to an Independent in recent years.

Bucking the recent trend, this week's Scottish by-election produced a Labour hold on a greatly increased vote share on 2007.  They didn't quite manage to make the quota of 1,965 in the first round, winning 49.2% of the first preferences, but after the four rounds of elimination they reached the quota with a very comfortable majority.

Saltcoats & Stevenston

By-Election Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-

Jim Montomerie (E)

1914

48.7%

+13.9%

Nan Wallace

1306

33.2%

+1.3%

Chris Barr

284

7.2%

-0.4%

Jimmy Miller

211

5.4%

+5.4%

Gerard Pollock

114

2.9%

+2.9%

Gordon Bain

56

1.4%

+1.4%

Louise McDaid

43

1.1%

+1.1%

It is not certain why the SNP failed to make a big increase in their vote here.  The Holyrood constituency containing this ward, Cunninghame North, has been SNP since 2007 and in May saw a 10% swing from Labour to the SNP.  Although there may have been a local issue I've overlooked, I have a feeling what may have happened here is that the Independent candidate from 2007 who polled very well has taken his votes overwhelmingly from normal Labour voters.  With that candidate not standing, the first preferences he took in 2007 have returned to Labour, seemingly boosting their vote by a substantial margin.

Amongst the also-rans the Liberal Democrat result is notably bad, coming in 6th place behind the Pensioners Party and an Independent, and only narrowly beating the Socialist Labour Party into last place.  Socialist Labour's transfers unsurprisingly favoured Labour, while the Lib Dems' favoured the SNP and then the Tories.  Historically, Lib Dem transfers around Greater Glasgow have been good for Labour, which is strongly suggestive of left-leaning former Lib Dem voters deserting the party.

The Pensioners Party managed a very reasonable share of the vote for a minor party in a ward they've never contested before, coming fairly close to the Tories for third place, and it was their transfers that finally pushed Labour over the quota. KK

  

 

Stage

By-Election Candidate

1stP

1

2

3

4

5

Jim Montomerie

49.3%

1914

13

30%

1927

9

16%

1936

27

22%

1963

76

32%

2039

Nan Wallace

33.6%

1306

5

12%

1311

15

26%

1326

37

30%

1363

62

26%

1425

Chris Barr

7.3%

284

2

5%

286

11

19%

297

11

9%

308

23

10%

331

Jimmy Miller (Pen)

5.4%

211

6

14%

217

5

9%

222

18

15%

240

-240

  

  

Gerard Pollock (Ind)

2.9%

114

3

7%

117

6

11%

123

-123

  

  

  

  

  

Gordon Bain

1.4%

56

1

2%

57

-57

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

Louise McDaid

1.1%

43

-43

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

Non-transferable

  

  

13

30%

13

11

19%

24

30

24%

54

79

33%

133

With Labour safely holding their seat, their minority administration will be safe to continue through to the end of the current term next May.  The potential confusion around the role of the 2007 Independent in these results though makes it hard to extrapolate any prediction for what the results will be like then.

North Ayrshire Council

Lab

SNP

Ind

Con

LD

12

-

8

-

5

-

3

-

2

-

Labour also managed a win in the other by-election taking place on Thursday, which had looked a lot more expected than their triumph in North Ayrshire. The by-election in Shirebrook South West, Bolsover DC was taking place following the death of Independent Councillor Alan Waring. He had gained the seat in 2007 but before that Labour were not challenged in this ward. With no Independent candidate standing in this by-election the seat was expected to switch back to Labour and Sandra Peake enjoyed a comfortable victory. She received almost half the votes cast and had a margin of almost 100 votes over the Greens, who had a strong showing in second place taking 25% of the vote in a ward they hadn't stood in before. Labour have a huge majority in Bolsover with the next full Council elections due in 2013. TH

Shirebrook South West

By-Election Candidate

Votes

Vote %

Sandra Peake (E)

200

47.4%

Ian Musgrove

103

24.4%

Bob Newholm

76

18.0%

Tom Key

43

10.2%