A very c-Hold day

As snow swept across the UK yesterday, voters in the four by-elections taking place around the country stuck with defending party. In fact, as far as swings in Council by-elections go there was very little movement in the wards contested this week when compared to the recent elections in them. For different reasons the Conservative defences in Bradford (West Yorkshire) and Chichester (West Sussex) were the most likely to produce any surprise gains, but the Tories held them both easily. They also held a seat in Worcestershire and the Liberal Democrats successfully defending a seat in Blaby (Leicestershire).

The vacancy in Bradford was for the Worth Valley ward. The by-election was called following the resignation of Conservative Councillor Kris Hopkins, who was elected as the MP for Keighley in May. The ward has been comfortably won by the Tories in recent years, especially when Hopkins himself was elected in 2008. The only reason Labour were given a chance was because of the impressive swings they have managed against the Conservatives in recent West Midland by-elections. Labour were unable to produce a similar performance in Yorkshire as the Conservative candidate Russell Brown was elected with a very similar majority the one achieved earlier in the year. The nominal swing from the Conservatives to Labour was 0.1% from the 2010 election, which will surely disappoint the reds. More importantly, the swing from the 2007 election was just 1.5%, which is unlikely to be enough to secure a majority in Bradford next May.

City of Bradford Metropolitan District Council
LAB		CON		LD		GRN			BNP			IND
39	-	31	-	14	-	3	-		2	-		1	-
Candidate					Votes			Vote %			+/-
Russell Brown (E)					1020			47.8%			+2.4
Mark Curtis					697			32.7%			+2.2
Robert Swindells					235			11%			+11
Sharon Purvis					180			8.4%			-9.7

In Chichester, the main reason the Conservatives were at risk of losing the Plaistow ward was the sheer number of times the electorate have had to head to the polls in recent years. This was the third by-election here since the full Council elections in 2007, and if you include the European and General Elections it's the fifth time the residents of Plaistow have voted in 18 months. They also have the full council elections to look forward to next May so the fact the Tory Councillor resigned close to the 6 month cut off could have worked against his party. As it was the result represented a 3.3% swing to the Liberal Democrats from the February 2010 by-election. A more positive figure for the Liberal Democrats is that the swing is almost 20% on the 2007 result, and this figure has been fairly consistent in the three by-elections. However, the Tories have a large majority in Chichester so the Lib Dems will need a very strong performance across the District in May to take control of the Council.

The final Conservative hold was in Bowbrook, Worcestershire. The by-election was triggered by the death of Cllr. Ted Sheldon at the age of 83. Sheldon had won 60% of the vote in 2009 so his party were expected to hold the seat and Tony Miller duly delivered as the Tories won with ease. There was a 4.2% swing towards the Liberal Democrats, but this was mainly due to a 7% increase in their vote rather than a poor Tory performance. The large Conservative majority in the County is safe until 2013.

Worcestershire County Council
CON		LD		LAB		ICHC		LIB			IND		RA			VAC
40	-	8	-	3	-	2	-	1	-		1	-	1		-	1	-
Candidate						Votes				Vote %				+/-
Tony Miller (E)						1088				59.2%				-1.2%
Margaret Rowley						536				29.2%				7.2%
Chris Barton						213				11.6%				4.6%

Finally, the Liberal Democrats held on to Blaby South, Blaby District Council. This result was quite similar to another recent by-election for the Council where a Labour candidate was fielded in what has been a straight LibDem/Tory contest in recent years. Labour polled a strong 18% from nowhere, which seemed disadvantaged the Lib Dems the most as their vote dropped by over 20%. However, as the Conservative vote also dropped they managed barely half the 15% swing required to gain the seat. The Tories have a big majority on this District Council too and it doesn't appear to be in danger next May.