I billed last night's by-elections as an unpredictable bunch and, although the results weren't released until this morning, they didn't disappoint. An Independent held off the Scottish Nationalists to gain a seat from the Conservatives in Scotland. The Tories were again beaten by an Independent in East Hertfordshire and only just held off an Independent challenge in Suffolk. Elsewhere, the Conservatives were almost embarrassed by Labour in Walsall but they easily held a ward on the Isle of Wight.
I'll start in Forres, Moray where, at the third time of asking (since the General Election), we had a close election under AV. The vacancy had arisen following the resignation of the Conservative Councillor Iain Young for health reasons and it seemed the main competition for the Tories would be the Scottish Nationalists. However, although the SNP and the Tories were comfortably first and second in 2007 the combined first preferences from the four Independent candidates would put them ahead of the two political parties. As there was only one seat up for grabs last night it seemed possible a strong Independent candidate could prevail if they could secure the second preferences from the other Independents. This is almost exactly what happened. The SNP candidate Aaron McLean was 211 votes ahead of the Independent Lorna Creswell on first preferences but that lead soon whittled away. Cresswell attracted more preferences than MacLean from each eliminated candidate and she eventually won by 345 votes. The Conservatives, who were defending the seat, performed badly as their share of first preferences dropped by 14.4%. Things didn't improved when the transfers were allocated as the Tory candidate was overtaken by another Independent, essentially finishing fourth. The SNP will be disappointed to lose a lead that large but they do tend to struggle to pick up preferences from other candidates. Marmite comes to mind! Stage [Quota 1606] Candidate 1stP% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Aaron McLean (SNP) 24.1% 773 774 3% 789 11% 800 5% 837 18% 899 14% 950 10% 1045 11% Lorna Creswell (IND) 17.5% 562 576 47% 615 29% 686 35% 726 20% 878 33% 999 24% 1399 47% Paul McBain (CON) 14.4% 463 464 3% 476 9% 486 5% 491 2% 511 4% Anne Skene (IND) 14.4% 463 464 3% 491 20% 541 25% 572 15% 695 27% 860 32% Fabio Villani (GRN) 12.5% 401 405 13% 419 10% 433 7% 459 13% Mark Cascarino (LAB) 6.1% 195 195 0% 201 4% 205 2% Janet Kennedy (IND) 6.0% 192 194 7% 201 5% Andy Anderson (SSC) 4.1% 132 135 10% Jane Cotton (IND) 0.9% 30 No-Transfer 0 4 13% 19 11% 60 20% 126 32% 228 22% 402 34% 767 42% NB. Italics are the share of preferences from the last eliminated candidate In the sole District Council election yesterday an Independent held a seat against a Conservative challenge in East Hertfordshire. The Tories managed a 1.9% swing towards them but it was nowhere near enough as the Independent triumphed with almost 60% of the vote. The final Independent challenge came in Suffolk where the Conservatives were defending the Tower ward. The by-election took place following the resignation of Paul Farmer for health reasons. It was a close result in 2009 with the top three candidates coming within 200 votes of each other so we were expecting a tight contest. David Nettleton was the unfortunate Independent who came third in this two member ward last time and he stood again for this vacancy. The Greens came second at the last election but their vote dropped considerably with most of it seeming to go to the Labour candidate. This left the Tories and Nettleton to fight it out for the seat and the Independent was narrowly defeated again. The Conservative candidate Stefan Oliver won by 55 votes as the percentage shares for the top two remained almost unchanged from 18 months ago. The Tories stood still as Nettleton increased his share by 1.2%. All this leaves the Conservatives majority on the council unchanged. A more traditional by-election result could be found in Walsall, although there was a notable absence of a Liberal Democrat candidate. The vacancy in the Rushall-Shelfield ward arose following the death of Conservative Counillor Albert Griffiths. Labour finished second here in 2010 and required a 10% swing to take the seat so when it emerged the Lib Dems weren't fielding a candidate there were rumours they were trying to help their national coalition partner. However, the local association denied this, insisting a candidate had been selected but "due to a combination of illness and a clerical error" the nomination papers were late. It is debatable whether the Lib Dem absence helped the Conservatives anyway as most of their vote share appeared to go to Labour. It was not quite enough to produce a shock gain though as the Conservatives clung on with a 28 vote majority. This means their small majority on Walsall Council remains unchanged, but the local Tories must be worrying about next May's election after this result. Finally, the by-election for the Chale, Niton & Whitwell ward on the Isle of Wight was the only one this week to have all three major parties standing. The vacancy arose following the resignation of Conservative Councillor William Myatt-Willington for work related reasons. It looked like a safe hold and it turned out that way. There was a 3.7% swing from the Tories to the Liberal Democrats but this is a little flattering to the yellows. Their vote share remained virtually unchanged from 18 months ago as Labour polled 8% from nowhere. Moray Council Suffolk County Council IND SNP CON LAB CON LD LAB GRN IND UKIP 12 +1 10 - 2 -1 2 - 55 - 11 - 4 - 2 - 2 - 1 - Candidate 1stP Vote % +/- Candidate Votes Vote % +/- Aaron McLean 773 24.1% -5.8% Stefan Oliver (E) 1005 28.8% 0.0% Lorna Creswell (E) 562 17.5% N/A David Nettleton 950 27.2% 1.2% Paul McBain 463 14.4% -14.4% Kevin Hind 759 21.7% 12.6% Anne Skene 463 14.4% N/A Pippa Judd 479 13.7% -13.4% Fabio Villani 401 12.5% 12.5% David Chappell 300 8.6% -0.4% Mark Cascarino 195 6.1% 6.1% Janet Kennedy 192 6.0% N/A Andy Anderson 132 4.1% -4.0% Jane Cotton 30 0.9% N/A Walsall Metropolitan Borough Council Isle of Wight Council CON LAB LD IND DLP CON IND LD LAB OTH 33 - 18 - 6 - 2 - 1 - 24 - 10 - 4 - 1 - 1 - Candidate Votes Vote % +/- Candidate Votes Vote % +/- Lorna Rattigan (E) 639 42.0% -1.8% Dave Stewart (E) 510 53.6% -7.7% Richard Worrall 611 40.1% 13.1% Malcolm Groves 365 38.4% -0.3% Bill Vaughan 141 9.3% 9.3% Josh Cooper 76 8.0% 8.0% Tim Melville 90 5.9% -2.3% Mark Beech 42 2.8% 2.8% N/C (LD) 0 0.0% -17.8% N/C (GRN) 0 0.0% -3.2%
0 comments:
Post a Comment