Friday 12 November 2010

Independents’ Day

I billed last night's by-elections as an unpredictable bunch and, although the results weren't released until this morning, they didn't disappoint. An Independent held off the Scottish Nationalists to gain a seat from the Conservatives in Scotland. The Tories were again beaten by an Independent in East Hertfordshire and only just held off an Independent challenge in Suffolk. Elsewhere, the Conservatives were almost embarrassed by Labour in Walsall but they easily held a ward on the Isle of Wight.

I'll start in Forres, Moray where, at the third time of asking (since the General Election), we had a close election under AV. The vacancy had arisen following the resignation of the Conservative Councillor Iain Young for health reasons and it seemed the main competition for the Tories would be the Scottish Nationalists. However, although the SNP and the Tories were comfortably first and second in 2007 the combined first preferences from the four Independent candidates would put them ahead of the two political parties. As there was only one seat up for grabs last night it seemed possible a strong Independent candidate could prevail if they could secure the second preferences from the other Independents. This is almost exactly what happened. The SNP candidate Aaron McLean was 211 votes ahead of the Independent Lorna Creswell on first preferences but that lead soon whittled away. Cresswell attracted more preferences than MacLean from each eliminated candidate and she eventually won by 345 votes. The Conservatives, who were defending the seat, performed badly as their share of first preferences dropped by 14.4%. Things didn't improved when the transfers were allocated as the Tory candidate was overtaken by another Independent, essentially finishing fourth. The SNP will be disappointed to lose a lead that large but they do tend to struggle to pick up preferences from other candidates. Marmite comes to mind!

  

Stage [Quota 1606]

Candidate

1stP%

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Aaron McLean (SNP)

24.1%

773

774

3%

789

11%

800

5%

837

18%

899

14%

950

10%

1045

11%

Lorna Creswell (IND)

17.5%

562

576

47%

615

29%

686

35%

726

20%

878

33%

999

24%

1399

47%

Paul McBain (CON)

14.4%

463

464

3%

476

9%

486

5%

491

2%

511

4%

  

  

  

  

Anne Skene (IND)

14.4%

463

464

3%

491

20%

541

25%

572

15%

695

27%

860

32%

  

  

Fabio Villani (GRN)

12.5%

401

405

13%

419

10%

433

7%

459

13%

  

  

  

  

  

  

Mark Cascarino (LAB)

6.1%

195

195

0%

201

4%

205

2%

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

Janet Kennedy (IND)

6.0%

192

194

7%

201

5%

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

Andy Anderson (SSC)

4.1%

132

135

10%

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

Jane Cotton (IND)

0.9%

30

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

No-Transfer

0

4

13%

19

11%

60

20%

126

32%

228

22%

402

34%

767

42%

NB. Italics are the share of preferences from the last eliminated candidate

In the sole District Council election yesterday an Independent held a seat against a Conservative challenge in East Hertfordshire. The Tories managed a 1.9% swing towards them but it was nowhere near enough as the Independent triumphed with almost 60% of the vote.

The final Independent challenge came in Suffolk where the Conservatives were defending the Tower ward. The by-election took place following the resignation of Paul Farmer for health reasons. It was a close result in 2009 with the top three candidates coming within 200 votes of each other so we were expecting a tight contest. David Nettleton was the unfortunate Independent who came third in this two member ward last time and he stood again for this vacancy. The Greens came second at the last election but their vote dropped considerably with most of it seeming to go to the Labour candidate. This left the Tories and Nettleton to fight it out for the seat and the Independent was narrowly defeated again. The Conservative candidate Stefan Oliver won by 55 votes as the percentage shares for the top two remained almost unchanged from 18 months ago. The Tories stood still as Nettleton increased his share by 1.2%. All this leaves the Conservatives majority on the council unchanged.

A more traditional by-election result could be found in Walsall, although there was a notable absence of a Liberal Democrat candidate. The vacancy in the Rushall-Shelfield ward arose following the death of Conservative Counillor Albert Griffiths. Labour finished second here in 2010 and required a 10% swing to take the seat so when it emerged the Lib Dems weren't fielding a candidate there were rumours they were trying to help their national coalition partner. However, the local association denied this, insisting a candidate had been selected but "due to a combination of illness and a clerical error" the nomination papers were late. It is debatable whether the Lib Dem absence helped the Conservatives anyway as most of their vote share appeared to go to Labour. It was not quite enough to produce a shock gain though as the Conservatives clung on with a 28 vote majority. This means their small majority on Walsall Council remains unchanged, but the local Tories must be worrying about next May's election after this result.

Finally, the by-election for the Chale, Niton & Whitwell ward on the Isle of Wight was the only one this week to have all three major parties standing. The vacancy arose following the resignation of Conservative Councillor William Myatt-Willington for work related reasons. It looked like a safe hold and it turned out that way. There was a 3.7% swing from the Tories to the Liberal Democrats but this is a little flattering to the yellows. Their vote share remained virtually unchanged from 18 months ago as Labour polled 8% from nowhere.

Moray Council

 

Suffolk County Council

IND

SNP

CON

LAB

 

CON

LD

LAB

GRN

IND

UKIP

12

+1

10

-

2

-1

2

-

 

55

-

11

-

4

-

2

-

2

-

1

-

Candidate

1stP

Vote %

+/-

 

Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-

Aaron McLean

773

24.1%

-5.8%

 

Stefan Oliver (E)

1005

28.8%

0.0%

Lorna Creswell (E)

562

17.5%

N/A

 

David Nettleton

950

27.2%

1.2%

Paul McBain

463

14.4%

-14.4%

 

Kevin Hind

759

21.7%

12.6%

Anne Skene

463

14.4%

N/A

 

Pippa Judd

479

13.7%

-13.4%

Fabio Villani

401

12.5%

12.5%

 

David Chappell

300

8.6%

-0.4%

Mark Cascarino

195

6.1%

6.1%

     

Janet Kennedy

192

6.0%

N/A

     

Andy Anderson

132

4.1%

-4.0%

     

Jane Cotton

30

0.9%

N/A

     


 

Walsall Metropolitan Borough Council

 

Isle of Wight Council

CON

LAB

LD

IND

DLP

 

CON

IND

LD

LAB

OTH

33

-

18

-

6

-

2

-

1

-

 

24

-

10

-

4

-

1

-

1

-

Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-

 

Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-

Lorna Rattigan (E)

639

42.0%

-1.8%

 

Dave Stewart (E)

510

53.6%

-7.7%

Richard Worrall

611

40.1%

13.1%

 

Malcolm Groves

365

38.4%

-0.3%

Bill Vaughan

141

9.3%

9.3%

 

Josh Cooper

76

8.0%

8.0%

Tim Melville

90

5.9%

-2.3%

     

Mark Beech

42

2.8%

2.8%

     

N/C (LD)

0

0.0%

-17.8%

     

N/C (GRN)

0

0.0%

-3.2%

     

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