There are half a dozen vacant seats up for grabs on Thursday, although two of them are in the same ward in Liverpool. There is another by-election in a Metropolitan Borough as well as a couple in Wales and one District vacancy.
The main event on Thursday is the election for the Croxteth ward in Liverpool. Both Labour AND the Liberal Democrats are defending a seat each in this ward, so the people of Croxteth will have the pleasure of choosing two from fourteen candidates. The Labour Councillor Rose Bailey died in July and then a fortnight later the Lib Dem Councillor Phil Moffatt caused the second vacancy by resigning to move to Northern Ireland. The Lib Dems are most at risk here as the ward has swung quite decisively towards Labour since Moffatt's narrow 10 vote victory in 2007. Bailey's win in 2008 represented an 8.25% swing from the Liberal Democrats to Labour and a further 5.75% swing in May, which was possibly aided by the General Election turnout, leaves Labour favourites to win both seats on Thursday. Still, this is another urban seat where the Lib Dems have been competitive in recent years and so keen observers will be interested to see how well their vote share holds up. Labour control the Council, but as they currently hold 48 of the 90 seats they could do with a couple more.
On a side note, the Greens only have one candidate for this by election because 'a classic cock-up'. Don't take my word for it; that is how one of the Green Councillors in Liverpool described the situation! The Greens had a second candidate with a proposer, a seconder and eight assenters so everything seemed in order. Only one of the assenters was under-18 and as they'd left it until the last minute to hand in the nomination forms there was no time to find another. Still, as they only polled 1.3% in May missing a candidate isn't going to make much difference to the overall result. And they're in good company too as the Lib Dems and Labour have messed up nominations forms for by-elections in recent weeks, possibly costing the latter a seat.
The other top-tier election in England is for the Wednesbury North ward on the Sandwell Metropolitan Borough Council. The vacancy has arisen following the resignation of the Conservative Cllr. Bill Archer. Archer was 83 so retirement is probably a better description. This is ordinarily a safe Conservative ward but Labour were very close to a surprise gain in May on the back of the General Election turnout. Peter Hughes missed out by just 51 votes (1%) in May and he's standing again as the Labour candidate for this by-election. If they do manage an impressive gain tomorrow they will just be adding to their already huge majority in Sandwell.
In Wales, the Conwy County Council is holding their second by-election since the General Election. The by-election in the Eglysbach ward will take place following the resignation of Plaid Cymru Councillor Angharad Booth-Taylor, who has moved to Pembrokeshire. She won her seat with 88% of the vote in 2008 so Plaid shouldn't have any problem holding this. They lead the anti-Tory coalition on the Council so would enjoy a big win over the Conservatives in this by-election.
The other Welsh by-election is in Anglesey and the result is likely to be equally one-sided. However, the political situation is slightly more complicated. The Rhosneigr ward is vacant following the resignation of the 'Original' Independent Phil Fowlie due to ill health. The use of the term 'Original' is a small insight into the strange politics on the Isle of Anglesey. The Council is currently controlled by an Alliance between four groups; Plaid Cymru, Labour, Llais i Fôn (Voice of Anglesey) and the Menai group (a local independent group). The current Council leader left the ruling 'Original' Independents in the summer to form this Alliance on what is a politically fractured Council. As the table below shows there are six groups (AF = Anglesey First), all a long way short of the 21 required for a majority, and a further four unaffiliated members. This by-election will be contested by just two candidates; an Independent and a Conservative. It is not clear which group the Independent would align him with, if any, should he win as expected. As The Alliance currently hold half the seats so all eyes will be on Richard Dew, who lost by just 32 votes in 2008, to see who he sits with.
Isle of Anglesey County Council | ||||||
IND | PC | LAB | LF | MEN | AF | OTH |
13 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Finally, there is a vacancy for the Baxenden ward on the Hyndburn Borough Council (Lancashire). It is in a safe Conservative ward so they should hold it comfortably.
Croxteth (Liverpool) | Wednesbury N (Sandwell) | |||||||
Candidate | 2007 | 2008 | 2010 | Candidate | 2008 | 2010 | ||
Martin Cummins (LAB) | 45.2% | 51.7% | 57.1% | Mike Warner (CON) | 79.3% | 39.2% | ||
Stephanie Till (LAB) | Peter Hughes (LAB) | 20.7% | 38.2% | |||||
Mark Coughlin (LD) | 45.6% | 35.6% | 29.5% | N/C (BNP) | - | 12.1% | ||
John Marner (LD) | Mary Wilson (LD) | - | 10.5% | |||||
Brenda Coppell (CON) | 3.3% | 2.5% | 4.7% | Ade Woodhouse (NF) | - | - | ||
Norman Coppell (CON) | Colin Bye (GRN) | - | - | |||||
Kai Andersen (SLP) | - | - | 4.2% | |||||
Barbara Bryan (SLP) | ||||||||
N/C (LIB) | 1.4% | 0.0% | 3.1% | |||||
Eleanor Pontin (GRN) | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | |||||
N/C (IND) | - | 4.9% | - | |||||
Peter Tierney (BNP) | - | 3.1% | - | |||||
Michael Lane (UKIP) | - | - | - | |||||
Michael Marner (UKIP) | ||||||||
Steven McEllenborough (ED) | - | - | - | |||||
Paul Rimmer (ED) | ||||||||
Eglysbach (Conwy) | Rhosneigr (Anglesey) | |||||||
Candidate | 2008 | Candidate | 2008 | |||||
Mike Rayner (PC) | 88.1% | N/C (IND) | 54.1% | |||||
David Williams (CON) | 11.9% | Richard Dew (IND) | 45.9% | |||||
Martin Peet (CON) | - | |||||||
i see that there was also a by-election in Camborne North
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