By-Election Watch (29/11/10)

Here is this week's change to the by-election page.

Council	Type	Ward	Party	Reason	Date
Windsor & Maidenhead	Unitary	Park	Conservative	Resigned	6th Jan

I haven't seen any new by-elections called in top-tier Councils, and only one previously known by-election has had a date set. This week we have four by-elections, but they are spread between two days. Tomorrow night we'll be looking out for the Ceredigion result, previewed earlier, and on Thursday there is a by-election for Rugby District Council as well as the St Helens and Poole elections featured our page.

By-Election Preview (30th November)

By-elections on a Tuesday are uncommon, but not unheard of. The by-election for the Ciliau Aeron ward, Ceredigion is only the second election since the General Election to take place on a Tuesday; the first being the deferred election for a Camden ward in May.

This vacancy in Central Wales is an interesting one. On paper this is an easy Plaid Cymru hold but the reason for the by-election leaves the possibility of an upset. I has been called following the disqualification of Cllr. Moelfryn Maskell for misconduct. Maskell has been barred from standing in Local Government elections for 18 months after he was found guilty of misusing his position. He had failed to declare his interest in planning discussions relating to road improvements in an area where he owned land. Furthermore, another Plaid Councillor is awaiting tribunal, so it will be hard for the party to dismiss Maskell's behaviour as a one off. However, in 2008 Plaid won the seat with a 67% of the vote, which should be enough of a cushion to prevent the Liberal Democrats from gaining the seat. The Council is currently controlled by an anti-Plaid Cymru coalition and they could do with an extra seat. Plaid are the largest party on the Council with 20 of the 42 seats, but the other 22 Councillors (12 Independents, 9 Lib Dems and 1 Labour) enjoy a tiny majority at the moment.

Ciliau Aeron (Ceredigion)
Candidate	2008
John Lumley (PC)	67%
Sonia Williams (LD)	18.6%
N/C (IND)	14.4%
Luke Evetts (CON)	0.0%

A very c-Hold day

As snow swept across the UK yesterday, voters in the four by-elections taking place around the country stuck with defending party. In fact, as far as swings in Council by-elections go there was very little movement in the wards contested this week when compared to the recent elections in them. For different reasons the Conservative defences in Bradford (West Yorkshire) and Chichester (West Sussex) were the most likely to produce any surprise gains, but the Tories held them both easily. They also held a seat in Worcestershire and the Liberal Democrats successfully defending a seat in Blaby (Leicestershire).

The vacancy in Bradford was for the Worth Valley ward. The by-election was called following the resignation of Conservative Councillor Kris Hopkins, who was elected as the MP for Keighley in May. The ward has been comfortably won by the Tories in recent years, especially when Hopkins himself was elected in 2008. The only reason Labour were given a chance was because of the impressive swings they have managed against the Conservatives in recent West Midland by-elections. Labour were unable to produce a similar performance in Yorkshire as the Conservative candidate Russell Brown was elected with a very similar majority the one achieved earlier in the year. The nominal swing from the Conservatives to Labour was 0.1% from the 2010 election, which will surely disappoint the reds. More importantly, the swing from the 2007 election was just 1.5%, which is unlikely to be enough to secure a majority in Bradford next May.

City of Bradford Metropolitan District Council
LAB		CON		LD		GRN			BNP			IND
39	-	31	-	14	-	3	-		2	-		1	-
Candidate					Votes			Vote %			+/-
Russell Brown (E)					1020			47.8%			+2.4
Mark Curtis					697			32.7%			+2.2
Robert Swindells					235			11%			+11
Sharon Purvis					180			8.4%			-9.7

In Chichester, the main reason the Conservatives were at risk of losing the Plaistow ward was the sheer number of times the electorate have had to head to the polls in recent years. This was the third by-election here since the full Council elections in 2007, and if you include the European and General Elections it's the fifth time the residents of Plaistow have voted in 18 months. They also have the full council elections to look forward to next May so the fact the Tory Councillor resigned close to the 6 month cut off could have worked against his party. As it was the result represented a 3.3% swing to the Liberal Democrats from the February 2010 by-election. A more positive figure for the Liberal Democrats is that the swing is almost 20% on the 2007 result, and this figure has been fairly consistent in the three by-elections. However, the Tories have a large majority in Chichester so the Lib Dems will need a very strong performance across the District in May to take control of the Council.

The final Conservative hold was in Bowbrook, Worcestershire. The by-election was triggered by the death of Cllr. Ted Sheldon at the age of 83. Sheldon had won 60% of the vote in 2009 so his party were expected to hold the seat and Tony Miller duly delivered as the Tories won with ease. There was a 4.2% swing towards the Liberal Democrats, but this was mainly due to a 7% increase in their vote rather than a poor Tory performance. The large Conservative majority in the County is safe until 2013.

Worcestershire County Council
CON		LD		LAB		ICHC		LIB			IND		RA			VAC
40	-	8	-	3	-	2	-	1	-		1	-	1		-	1	-
Candidate						Votes				Vote %				+/-
Tony Miller (E)						1088				59.2%				-1.2%
Margaret Rowley						536				29.2%				7.2%
Chris Barton						213				11.6%				4.6%

Finally, the Liberal Democrats held on to Blaby South, Blaby District Council. This result was quite similar to another recent by-election for the Council where a Labour candidate was fielded in what has been a straight LibDem/Tory contest in recent years. Labour polled a strong 18% from nowhere, which seemed disadvantaged the Lib Dems the most as their vote dropped by over 20%. However, as the Conservative vote also dropped they managed barely half the 15% swing required to gain the seat. The Tories have a big majority on this District Council too and it doesn't appear to be in danger next May.

The Scottish Conservative Problem

While the Conservatives won 307 seats in May only one of those was one of Scotland’s fifty-nine seats. In fact, excluding Scotland the Conservatives won a majority. A conservative-supporting friend of mine suggested, the day after Election Day, making Scotland independent on this very basis. The party gained just 0.9%, and Labour actually gained 2.5% of the vote north of the border, meaning that in actual fact there was a 0.8% swing AWAY from the Conservatives, towards Labour. The party’s vote was still 0.8% below 1997 and 9% below 1992.

Party	Scottish Vote Share	Seats won	Second places	Third places	Fourth places	Fifth places
Labour	42%	41	10	8	1	-
SNP	19.9%	6	28	12	13	-
Lib Dems	18.9%	11	6	23	18	-
Conservatives	16.7%	1	15	15	27	1

While the Conservative party came fourth on the vote share it was only actually 3.2% behind the second placed SNP. It also had the second highest number of second places. While the party had the highest number of fourth places (and one constituency where it was pushed into an embarrassing fifth by an independent) they are rarely below 10% and below 5% on maybe one or two occasions. The Conservative problem is vote spread – which is their problem in much of the UK. In a first past the post electoral system all that matters is you win the seat, it does not matter if you win a seat by 10 votes or 10,000, if you have won it then that is that. Therefore there is a certain pattern of vote spread which can be advantage – win small, lose big.

Let’s take a hypothetical situation. Let’s say there are three seats each with 100 voters. Now both Labour and the Conservatives win 150 votes each, but in those three seats what happens is that Labour wins 55 votes in two seats and the Tories win 45 and in the final seat the Tories get 60 votes and Labour 40 votes. Both parties have the exact same number of voters, but Labour has won an additional seat by virtue of concentrating its voters in a useful manner, winning by small margins and losing by big ones. As any vote over the winning line is ‘wasted’ an even spread of votes is to a party’s advantage. This pattern largely replicates itself across the UK, with the Conservatives winning big and losing small in much of the country. It is particularly evident in Scotland however. In the Scottish Parliament, where an element of proportional representation is used, the Conservatives have a larger representation.

It wasn’t always like this. Once upon a time the Tories were actually dominant north of the border or to be more precise the Unionist Party was. The Unionist Party was officially a separate political party though it, in most respects, acted as the Scottish wing of the Conservatives. The Unionist Party however, had a unique Scottish identity and branding. It was orientated towards working class Protestantism, and is the only party to have ever won a majority of the Scottish vote (50.1% in 1955). The breakdown of Imperial unity however dismantled the party’s main ideological plank and it began to lose seats rapidly. It was merged into the Conservative Party as a result, with Labour able to soak up support from the working classes, the SNP able to connect to those desiring a Scottish identity to their politics and the Liberals expanding slightly beyond their traditional Celtic fringe. Nonetheless even in 1992 the Scottish Conservatives were still able to muster 25.6% of the Scottish vote and eleven seats.

Some commentators like to suggest that Scotland is intrinsically left-wing. While perhaps it is one of the more left-leaning regions of the, Scotland has plenty of white, middle class, rural people who should, on paper, vote Conservative (and some of whom already do), it also stereotypes Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP as all being ‘centre-left’, as if they therefore have nothing to offer centre-right voters. While the centre-left label can be reasonably applied in all three cases all three parties are capable of reaching across the spectrum to centre-right voters. Indeed the SNP, are sometimes nicknamed the ‘Tartan Tories’ for this very fact, but perhaps the biggest issue is that none of the other three parties is seen as being as English as the Conservatives. Indeed Labour’s last leader was a Scot, and the Lib Dems two leaders prior to Clegg were Scottish as well. Meanwhile the Conservatives are perceived, in Scottish folk memory, as having adopted anti-Scottish policies during the Thatcher years, and then rejected devolution; policies for the redistribution of regional budgets, and ‘English votes for English laws’, are not helpful either.

The solution suggested by some Conservatives, particularly notably Tim Montgomerie of ConservativeHome is to separate out the Scottish section of the party and essentially recreate the Unionist Party of old. Montgomerie points particularly approvingly to the Christian Social Union (CSU) in Bavaria (Germany) which is a separate party which acts as the larger CDU’s Bavarian wing. The CSU is an extremely successful party (two thirds of Bavarian votes is not uncommon) but one can’t help but think that its independence is possible only because of its success. As it wins big and often it can draw in money and talent. This is the Scottish Conservatives long-term problem. Talented Scottish Tories head south of the border. There are in fact two prominent Scottish Tories in the cabinet: Defence Minister Dr. Liam Fox and Education Secretary Michael Gove. Fox’s constituency is in Somerset, Gove’s is in Surrey. Similarly former Conservative foreign minister Sir Malcolm Rifkind, lost his seat in Edinburgh and then moved to Kensington. A rebuilt Unionist Party will have trouble offering the “distinctive centre-right pitch” that Montgomerie dreams of if it continues to have trouble with talent, or if it is dependent upon the mother party for money. Instead it will be seen, rightfully, as a section of the Conservative Party in all but name.

Yet hopes should remain for the party. Coalition may be just the ticket to bring back Scottish voters. If the Conservatives can demonstrate that Scots have nothing to fear from a Conservative government, they may begin to rise. They may also be well placed to take advantage of a Lib Dem slump particularly in Edinburgh and in seats like Argyll and Bute where they are in second place. Winning seats in Scotland remains the Conservative Party’s best home of winning a majority in 2015, it must become a priority for the party.

By-Election Preview (25th November)

After a few busy weeks on the by-election front we've dropped to just four this week and they should all be held by the defending parties'. There will be one Metropolitan, one County and two District vacancies filled on Thursday with the Conservatives defending three and the Liberal Democrats one. After some strong performances recently Labour only have a realistic chance of winning one this week.

I'll start in Bradford (West Yorkshire) where there is a by-election in the Worth Valley ward. The vacancy has arisen because the sitting Conservative Kris Hopkins gained the Keighley Westminster seat for his party in May, and has subsequently resigned from his Council duties. Hopkins easily won his seat in 2008, but the Conservatives' vote share dropped by 15% in May, with roughly 10% heading to the Liberal Democrats and 5% to Labour. Although this can be mostly attributed to General Election, Labour have managed impressive swings against the Tories this year in seats contested in the spring. The figure they require this week is 7.5% and in the last two CON/LAB by-elections for top-tier Councils the reds have managed swings of 16.4% (Sandwell, West Midlands) and 7.5% (Walsall, West Midlands). Although the Conservatives should hold on, Labour have selected the same candidate as May and they are certainly capable of producing a surprise. Labour currently run the Council as a minority so an extra seat would come in handy.

Worth Valley (Bradford)
Candidate	2007	2008	2010
Russell Brown (CON)	43.2%	60%	45.4%
Mark Curtis (LAB)	31%	24.9%	30.5%
Sharon Purvis (LD)	8.6%	7.6%	18.1%
N/C (IND)	-	-	5.9%
Robert Swindells (GRN)	-	7.5%	-
N/C (BNP)	17.2%	-	-

The Conservatives will have an easier task defending the Bowbrook ward, Worcestershire County Council. The by-election will be held following the death of Cllr. Ted Sheldon at the age of 83. In 2009 Sheldon easily won his seat with 60% of the vote with the Liberal Democrats quite a way back in second. Although the Lib Dems have been doing much better in rural by-elections against the Conservatives than in urban by-elections against Labour a 20% swing if probably beyond their reach. Besides, the Tories have a solid grip on the County. They will hold 41 of the 57 if they hold this and the vacant Alvechurch ward, which will be contested in three weeks time.

Bowbrook (Worc'shire)
Candidate	2009
Tony Miller (CON)	60.4%
Margaret Rowley (LD)	22%
N/C (GRN)	10.6%
Chris Barton (LAB)	7%

The final seat the Conservatives are defending on Thursday is for the Chichester District Council (West Sussex). For the third time since the full Council elections in 2007 the good folk who reside in the Plaistow ward will head to their polling stations to elect their District Councillor. The two Conservatives who were elected three and a half years ago have both since resigned. The winner of the first by-election in 2009, Cllr. John Andrews, has kept up the ward's tradition by vacating his seat just weeks before the six month cut off, and less than 18 months since his victory. As the Conservatives easily won the first two contests, albeit with slightly reduced majorities compared to their 2007 result, they are likely to hang on again. The Tories also enjoy a handsome majority in Chichester so they could cope with a shock loss.

The final by-election this week is for the Blaby South ward on the Blaby District Council (Leicestershire). The Liberal Democrats are the defending party following the resignation of Cllr. David Pollard. The Lib Dems managed roughly two thirds of the vote in 2007 with the Conservatives as their sole challengers, so they should hold the seat. However, Labour and the BNP are fielding candidates this time which could complicate matters. A couple of months ago there was a similar by-election in Balby where Labour polled 18% from nowhere. The Conservatives were a lot further behind in that ward so the Liberal Democrats still held the seat comfortably. If Labour manage to repeat their performance then it might be a little closer than the Lib Dems would like.

There is some pleasing news with regards to the weekly by-election live tweeting. I have moved extraordinarily low paid jobs from one involving unpredictable shift work to a solid 10-5. So there isn't any foreseeable reason why I will miss any Thursday nights! Also, next week there is a rare Tuesday by-election taking place in Wales. I'll post a preview on Sunday but put the result in with Friday's round up. I'll also be around Tuesday night to spot the result, but I doubt it'll be the most interesting night of the year for by-election watchers!

By-Election Watch (22/11/10)

Here are this week's changes to the by-election page.

Council	Type	Ward	Party	Reason	Date
Wiltshire	County	Bromham, Rowde & Potterne	Conservative	Arrested	21st Dec
Angus	Scotland	Carnoustie & District	SNP	Health	3rd Feb
Kent	County	Tonebridge	Conservative	Death	TBA

We are within 6 months of the next round of Council Elections and so we won't see many Metropolitan and District vacancies arising. In a few months they will peter out and there won't too many by-elections to write about! Fear not though because by then our coverage of the devolved assembly elections and the two referendums will be in full swing. This Thursday we have four by-elections and the usual service will be provided.

Yet another excellent night for Labour sets them up nicely for next May

Another Friday, another post detailing Labour's excellent by-election results from the night before... They have even managed to outdo themselves this week with a swing large enough to win almost any seat in the country! Their win in Sandwell wasn't a surprise, but the margin of victory certainly was. Labour also gained a seat off the Liberal Democrats in a double by-election in Liverpool and managed a large swing against the Tories in Hyndburn (Lancashire). The Conservatives were also soundly beaten in a couple of contests in Wales by Plaid Cymru and an Independent, although to be fair they weren't likely to be competitive.

I'll start in Sandwell where Labour cruised to victory in the Wednesbury North by-election. The vacancy had arisen following the resignation of the Conservative Cllr. Bill Archer, who essentially retired at the age of 83. Archer held his seat in 2008 with 80% of the vote, so Labour's win last night with twice as many votes as the Tories was quite astonishing. The ward was a lot more competitive in May as the Labour candidate Peter Hughes came within 51 votes of a surprise gain. Hughes stood again in this by-election and he received 62% of the vote to gain the seat. The victory represented a 16.4% swing from May, and an incredible 45% swing from Archer's victory two and a half years ago.

Now, although local factors can't completely account for Labour's excellent victory they certainly contributed to the magnitude. For starters, Archer was a popular Councillor across all parties in Sandwell, having not missed a meeting for over thirty years. In addition, Sandwell was at the centre of Michael Gove's bungled cut to the Building Schools for the Future fund. In response to the saga Conservative Cllr. Elaine Costigan defected to Labour. Costigan was not just any Tory in Sandwell; she represents the Wednesbury North ward and is Bill Archer's daughter. There have been suggestions that Archer had similar feelings to his daughter on the issue, but resigned instead of defecting after such a long time in the party. I imagine Labour's campaign leaflets wrote themselves! So Labour aren't likely to manage swings this large too often, but combined with other recent results in the region suggests they look set to make sweeping gains across the Midlands next May.

In the double by-election in Croxteth Labour managed to hold one seat and gain another from the Liberal Democrats. The first by-election was triggered by the death of Labour Councillor Rose Bailey in July and then a fortnight later the Lib Dem Councillor Phil Moffatt casued the second vacancy by resigning to move to Northern Ireland. The trend in Croxteth has clearly been towards Labour in recent years and they were expected to win both seats last night. Of more interest was how well the Lib Dem held up in an urban ward they have recently been competitive in. The good news for the Lib Dems was that they only lost 6.5% since May, which is less that current polls are suggesting. The bad news is their vote has halved in Croxteth since 2007 and these are the seats up for grabs next May. This result represents a 19% swing since Moffatt's win three and a half years ago and if the current political landscape remains Labour are likely to pick up a lot of urban seats from the Lib Dems in next year's Council elections.

The only other election in England yesterday took place for the Baxenden ward on the Hyndburn Borough Council (Lancashire). It was a safe Conservative ward and they held it comfortably. However, they won't be too comfortable with the 12% swing from them to Labour in the ward. On this performance the reds should gain literally hundreds of seats next May as they recover from what was a low water mark in 2007.

There was also a couple of by-election in Wales last night, with the Conservatives coming second out of two in both. The Eglysbach ward on the Conwy County Council was up for grabs following the resignation of Plaid Cymru Councillor Angharad Booth-Taylor, who has moved to Pembrokeshire. Mike Rayner easily held the seat for Plaid with 72% of the vote, but the Tories did manage a 16% swing from the 2008 result.

Finally, the Independent Richard Dew won the by-election for the Rhosneigr ward on the Isle of Anglesey Council. He narrowly lost to 'Original' Independent Phil Fowlie in 2008 but the Councillor has resigned due to ill health. Dew secured 84.6% of the vote against his Tory challenger to comfortably win his seat. I briefly summarised the odd political makeup of Anglesey Council on Wednesday and it is unclear which of the many groups of Independents Dew will sit with. When I do I'll comment on here and send out a tweet. Incidentally, although the Tories didn't do too well in last night's elections they were the only party who managed to put up a candidate in all the contests.

Sandwell Metropolitan Borough Council															Liverpool City Council
LAB		CON			LD				IND						LAB		LD		LIB			GRN
58	+1	9	-1		4			-	1			-			50	+1	35	-1	3	-		2		-
Candidate				Votes			Vote %				+/-				Candidate				Votes		Vote %		+/-
Peter Hughes (E)				1320			62.1%				+23.9				Martin Cummins (E)				1447		60.8%		+3.7
Mike Warner				643			30.2%				-8.9				Stephanie Till (E)				1424
Ade Woodhouse				76			3.6%				+3.6				Mark Coughlin				611		23.1%		-6.5
Mary Wilson				45			2.1%				-8.4				Michael Marner				479
Colin Bye				42			2.0%				+2				Peter Tierney				117		5.0%		+5
															Kai Andersen				135		4.3%		+0.1
															Barbara Bryan				70
															Eleanor Pontin				63		2.7%		+1.3
															Tony Hammond				50		1.5%		+1.5
															Michael Lane				19
															Paul Rimmer				35		1.4%		+1.4
															Steven McEllenborough				33
															Norman Coppell				31		1.3%		-3.4
															Brenda Coppell				29

 

Conwy County Council											Isle of Anglesey County Council*
CON		PC		IND		LAB		LD			IND	PC	LAB	LF		MEN	AF		OTH
22	-	13	-	13	-	7	-	4	-		12	8	5	4		3	3		4
Candidate				Votes		Vote %		+/-			Candidate				Votes			Vote %
Mike Rayner (E)				368		71.7%		-16.3			Richard Dew (E)				319			84.6%
David Williams				145		28.3%		+16.3			Martin Peet				58			15.4%

*Dew is omitted from the Council make-up as it has not been confirmed which group he will sit with. Rumour is he will join the 'Original' Independents (IND).