Friday, 5 March 2010

University of Plymouth Debate

Tonight Britain-Votes.co.uk will be attending a debate between Parliamentary Candidates at the University of Plymouth. It is a chance for students at the university to hear what the Plymouth Sutton and Devonport candidates have to offer and it should be a very interesting evening. It has been arranged by the Politics and International Affairs Society which Chris and Tom helped found when they were undergraduates. We have to confess that whilst we were on the committee we failed to organise anything as impressive and exciting as this so congratulations to Sarah and her team for setting this up!

We have contacted some of the Plymouth S + D candidates to answer a few questions and a post on the UKIP candidate Andrew Leigh will be published at 1500 this afternoon. We are excited at the prospect of hearing what the other candidates have to say perhaps they'll convince us to change our
initial prediction of a Conservative gain! Regardless, they will certainly be many votes up for grabs tonight (ours included!) and we'll bring you our reaction to the event over the weekend.

Thursday, 4 March 2010

A Tribute to Michael Foot - A Timely Reminder To The Generation He Leaves

Yesterday was tarnished by the sad loss of Michael Foot who died aged 96. He will be remembered primarily as the former leader of the Labour Party who led them into the most divisive and polarised election in modern history, the 1983 election - just as Thatcher’s Britain was beginning to unravel and divide the opinions of the country. Similarly he will be remembered as an anti-establishment figure, particularly as the pioneer of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament movement. But what he represented in British politics was much more remarkable. As the campaign trail intensifies heading towards the May 2010 election, his legacy can best be understood and appreciated against its backdrop.

Firstly, Michael Foot was by many perceptions a considered intellectual. He was a voracious reader, an Oxford graduate, and a well respected thinker, writer and essayist - the type of man who throughout history would have been leading his movement from behind a desk with his ideas, than from the front. The crossover of intellectuals into politics has always been a difficult path to breach. At the fall of the USSR, when Solzhenitsyn returned from his exile in America, a field worker asked him if he was running for office in the new Russia. He smiled and explained that he was a writer, and considered the petty backstabbing and squabbling of politics as beneath his capabilities. In this respect, Donald MacIntyre of the BBC is still asking “was Michael Foot an intellectual who should have never soiled his hands with political office”? But unlike many talented artists and writers, Michael Foot harboured a deep passion to change politics. He lacked the pomposity of many artists, writers and intellectuals in his character, one which sees most maintain a strict separation from the establishment. Contrarily, Foot found himself ‘at home’ speaking in Parliament fighting hard for the changes he wanted to see.

This was no doubt exemplified in the 1983 election. His electoral manifesto considered “the longest suicide note in history”, contained amongst other things, a widespread platform to nationalise Britain’s heavy industries. Margaret Thatcher was only a year prior polled as the most unpopular Prime Minister in British history, battling widespread unemployment, repeated unworkable policies and an unpopular raising of taxes in economic recession. Whilst the Falklands conflict without doubt rebranded Thatcher as a capable war leader, it was seen as Labour’s greatest chance to moderate itself and seize power. But rather than compensate on his ideals, and even those further on the radical left, Foot stayed strong to his own values and convictions ultimately at the expense of political power. A sobering thought, in an age where opposition parties offer three soft electoral policies a year, and leaders start the day wishing to not offend the ‘middle voter’ and maintain the centre ground at all costs.

Another thing which set Michael Foot apart was his sheer dedication to politics. In total, Foot was active as MP for 42 years, during which time he worked as editor of several publications (including the London Evening Standard), continued his penchant for essaying, led his parliamentary party and started several campaigns to change policy (most notably CND). Again, this career of political dedication to beliefs is almost unheard of in the contemporary era; we could quite conceivably see Obama and Cameron leading the next decade, both of whom came on to their respective scenes with less than five years political experience, both emphasising the drastic need for change (and often without providing the key details). The days of Michael Foot and real passion for ideals and debate, over hollow rhetoric and political opportunism, seem to have bowed out with his political career.

A comment on the blog of my former politics lecturer simply reads; “Back in the 80s when he was leader of the Labour party, I got on a doubledecker bus in London and saw this white-haired oldish man sat in front of me in a duffle coat. Further on, he got up to get off, it was only then that I realised that it was Michael Foot on his own”. What are the chances of that happening in the modern age? A politician using public transport, not suffocated by political aides advising him to smile, pick up and cuddle the nearest baby. Riding on a bus to get somewhere, without contacting the media beforehand or organising a press circus to meet him as he got off. In the era when John Prescott, as Transport Minister, had two Jaguars and a chauffeur to get him about. In the era when Boris Johnson will ride a bike to work to be seen as eco friendly (and have a car and civil servants carry his work). This was a principled politician of deep integrity, so far removed from the spin and hollowness of politics; it is almost hard to remember how honest and straight-forward a leading party figure could be.

It is not surprising then that Michael Foot’s passing away has attracted such warm tributes from politicians from all over the political spectrum. Least not his arch-nemeses Margaret Thatcher and Enoch Powell, who have praised his integrity and commitment to his ideals, his making of politics about debating the issues. It is perhaps fitting that its timing; in the run up to the 2010 election, comes at a time when politicians are happier to avoid debating the issues, keen to stay as central and inoffensive as possible, more preoccupied with managing the press and carefully constructing their media images than committing to change the country for their vision of ‘the better’. So rest in peace Michael Foot; a man and leader everyone involved in the upcoming election could learn from.

Wednesday, 3 March 2010

Political Banter or Slander?

It was reported in the Cornish Guardian, in the Evening Herald… In fact, it even made the Daily Mail. Not the redrawing of Cornwall’s constituencies and definitely none of the serious politics stuff usually discussed on this blog. Cornwall’s Councillors Tweeting about their boss during a meeting. Surprisingly perhaps, they weren’t making fun of her policies or even anything political. Just her lack of technological ability and the rules she’d imposed for the meeting; keeping phones switched off.


We’ve all heard about individuals getting fired following their Facebook antics. But what about politicians tweeting half way through a meeting or from the floor of Parliament? Fortunately, for the Councillors, Pat Harvey, the Council leader took the comments with good humour, with just the media making a song and dance of the situation. However, with Twitter also being used to attack the opposition, how long is it before it can constitute slander or even libel?


It reminds me of a recent story from Parliament. A Government whip from the Labour party; MP David Wright tweeted that the Conservative party were a bunch of, “Scum-sucking pigs.” Of course, his opponents jumped on this action and one Tory blogger has even started an Internet campaign to help the party’s candidate in Telford, Tom Biggins, to overturn Mr Wright’s 5,500 majority at the General Election. Wright immediately apologized for his choice of words but said that the content was acceptable.


Again, no prosecution arose. However, with fewer people using traditional news sources; Twitter and similar Web 2.0 applications are bound to be one of the election’s battlegrounds, so it will be interesting to see the legal and political repercussions of the next few months.

Tuesday, 2 March 2010

A Look @: Bournemouth & Poole

Bournemouth and Poole have had their own unitary authorities since 1997. Both hold elections for the entire council every four years with the last taking place in 2007. Bournemouth boasts the larger of the two authorities with 54 elected councillors. At the last election the Conservatives scored a big victory, wresting control of the council from the Liberal Democrats. 23 seats orange seats turned blue and this has been attributed to, amongst other things, the Lib Dems support for a town centre casino. The Tories also control Poole council but they lost one seat in 2007 to the Liberal Democrats, who are the only other party represented. This is good news for the only Lib Dem MP in Dorset, Annette Brooke, as a significant chunk of her constituency lies within the Poole Council boundary.


Constituency

Incumbent

Notional Majority

Swing Needed

Favourite

Prediction

Dorset Mid & Poole N

Annette Brooke

5,931

6.6%

4/6

LD Hold

Bournemouth West

Sir John Butterfill

2,766

3.8%

1/6

CON Hold

Bournemouth East

Tobias Ellwood

5,874

7.1%

1/200

CON Hold

Poole

Robert Syms

6,035

7.2%

1/200

CON Hold


Annette Brooke has a tough fight on her hands to hold onto her seat. But being the only Lib Dem in the county does have its advantages. With the party on the defensive against the Conservatives in rural areas Brooke can expect a lot of support to hold Dorset Mid & Poole North. The down side of this is that the Lib Dems are going to struggle make gains locally but given the strength of the Tories this year holding on for dear life is probably the best option. Brooke has held her seat since it was created in 1997 and has been relatively unscathed in the expenses row. On the political side a 5,000 majority is certainly defendable against the Tories, who are running businessman Nick King. Expect a reduced majority, but a concerted effort should return Brooke to Parliament.

Bournemouth West has been left open by Sir John Butterfield. It was created in 1950 and has always returned a Conservative MP. Former Times correspondent Alasdair Murray is hoping to cause an upset for Liberal Democrats but I'd be surprised if the Tories lose this. They have selected Connor Burns as their candidate and he'll be optimistic his third run for Parliament will be the lucky one. He has contested Chris Huhne's Eastleigh constituency in the last two elections and ran the Lib Dem Home Affairs Spokesman very close in 2005. I suspect he'll go one better this year and hold the seat for the Tories.

As for the other two seats, they are likely to stay with the Conservatives. Bournemouth East's MP, Tobias Ellwood, got into a spot of bother with his expenses but like Robert Syms in Poole his 6,000 vote majority should prove too much to overturn.


A Look @: Dorset

Dorset is fairly straight forward when it comes to the General Election. It is the definition of a Conservative heartland and the Tories go into this election holding 6 of the 8 seats in the County. They also control the County Council, which excludes the Bournemouth and Poole metropolitan areas, with 28 of the 45 seats. Given the current political climate the Conservatives will expect to hold all their current seats and have to potential to turn the entire county blue.


Constituency

Incumbent

Notional Majority

Swing Needed

Favourite

Prediction

Dorset South

Jim Knight

1,812

1.9%

1/6

CON Gain

Dorset West

Oliver Letwin

2,461

2.4%

1/14

CON Hold

Dorset North

Robert Walter

4,200

4.3%

1/20

CON Hold

Christchurch

Christopher Chope

14,640

15.7%

1/200

CON Hold


In 2005, Jim Knight holding Dorset South for Labour was one of the shocks of the night. Knight managed to increase his wafer thin majority against the swing, but he'll be lucky to survive this time round. Knight has been in a bit of a pickle with his expenses claims, which still haven't been paid back in full, but it's the political tide that the Employment Minister should be most worried about. Labour lost their four remaining county councillors in the 2009 election, all of whom held their seats in Knight's constituency. The Conservative Candidate, journalist Richard Drax, could be forgiven for acting like the next MP for Dorset South, but Labour won't go without a fight. Knight has already produced one shock result and a recent by-election gain by Labour will have given him a glimmer of hope. The Tories should take this though.

The other three seats in the rural areas of Dorset all look set to stay with the Conservatives. Oliver Letwin held Dorset West in 2005 despite being targeted by the Liberal Democrats interestingly named decapitation strategy. This time he is up against Berkshire Councillor Dr. Sue Farrant, and is likely to win a fourth term. Robert Walter is defending a majority of 4,000 in Dorset North against Emily Gasson; the wife of Lib Dem Campaign Chief Ed Davey. Walter should also cruise to victory in a seat the Tories have held since 1950. Finally, Christopher Chope is one of the fortunate MPs to enjoy the support of over 50% of his constituents. He'll do well to lose his Christchurch seat, which he has held since 1997.