A Look @: Devon (Part I)

Devon is split into 12 seats for the 2010 election, one more than in 2005, of which 5 are held by the Conservatives, 3 by the Liberal Democrats and 3 by Labour. This post is looking at the constituencies not hugely affected by the new Devon Central seat. Rural Devon is CON/LD battleground but one in which the Tories have the upper hand. They’ll be hoping to take a couple of seats from the Liberal Democrats this year to help them get that coveted majority. In the 2009 County Council results the Conservatives made sweeping gains at the expense of the Lib Dems taking control of the council with 41 of the 62 seats. The Tories will hope to repeat this success in May.

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed		Favourite	Prediction
Totnes	Anthony Steen	2,693	2.9%		1/3	CON Hold
Torbay	Adrian Sanders	2,727	3.1%		2/5	CON Gain
Devon North	Nick Harvey	5,276	5.4%		4/6	LD Hold
Devon W & Torridge	Geoffrey Cox	2,732	2.7%		1/16	CON Hold
Devon South West	Gary Streeter	9,442	10.1%	10.3%	1/500	CON Hold

Totnes has been left open by Anthony Steen (CON) after revelations about his expenses forced him to stand down. This shouldn’t affect Tory PPC, GP Sarah Wollaston, as it will be difficult for her opponents to paint her with the same brush. Besides, attacking the Conservative Party over expenses in this area of the country could cause the Lib Dems problems in neighbouring constituencies where their MPs have had problems of their own. Wollaston is clearly a different candidate to Steen; and is unlikely to hire a tree surgeon anytime soon! Although Steen has represented this corner of Devon since 1983, his recent majorities have been consistently small. There is definite potential for local councillor Julian Brazil to pick up Totnes for the Lib Dems the safe prediction is a Tory Hold. UKIP and the Greens, who have a county councillor elected from Totnes, could be strong here too so there is potential for an upset but the safe prediction is a Tory Hold.

Adrian Sanders (LD) won Torbay in 1997 from the Conservative incumbent. However, Sanders has been unable to solidify this gain for the Lib Dems and with a small majority he is facing a tough fight. The Lib Dems vote dropped 10% here in 2005 although none of this when to the Conservative candidate Marcus Wood who is standing again in May. Sanders himself has come off fairly well in the expenses row relative to other MPs in Devon but he still endured some scrutiny and had to pay back over £600. This is sure to be another closely fought contest with a lot riding on whether Labour hold on to their 5% increase from the last election. I think the majority either way is going to be small but if pushed I’d say Wood will take this for the Conservatives.

Liberal Democrat MP Nick Harvey is in a much stronger position than Sanders. He won his Devon North the seat from the Conservatives in 1992 and has enjoyed consistently strong majorities since. Harvey was not bothered by Sir Thomas Legg and has fairly comfortable majority to defend. The Conservative PPC here is businessman Philip Milton and he’ll do well to take this seat for the Tories; LD Hold.

Geoffrey Cox (CON) took Torridge and West Devon from the Lib Dems in 2005 after John Burnett stood down. He’s defending a small majority in a seat that neither the Lib Dems nor the Tories have made their own in recent years. Torridge Councillor Adam Symons has some hope of winning the seat back for the Liberal Democrats however Cox has very little on him regarding expenses. I don’t think there will be a significant LD>CON swing in the South West but the reverse is also unlikely to happen. Although UKIP may prove to be a nuisance for the Conservatives here, I predict a Tory hold.

Although Gary Streeter paid back over £3,000 over his mortgage it’s very likely he’ll be returned in Devon South West. He has held the seat since it was created in 1997 and had represented Plymouth Sutton in the previous Parliament. The opposition vote is evenly split between the Lib Dems and Labour which has helped Streeter consistently increase his majority. Conservative Hold.

The Pig, the Coup and the Reality TV Show

Labour has won the last week’s bad PR competition at a time they appeared to be pulling back in the polls. Gordon Brown’s chat with Piers on Sunday has been sufficiently diluted by an old friend announcing he’s standing down and a couple of instances of poor judgement. Geoff Hoon’s decision to stand down is not surprising but wasn’t a particularly welcome reminder of the party’s recent infighting. As for David Wright and Austin Mitchell…well, I guess I expect elected representatives to give a little thought to the situations they willingly put themselves in. Here’s the state of play in their respective constituencies.

Region	Constituency	Incumbent	Majority*	Swing Needed	Prediction
North West	Telford	David Wright	5,516	7.4%	Too Close
East Midlands	Ashfield	Geoff Hoon	10,242	12.2%	LAB Hold
Yorkshire	Great Grimsby	Austin Mitchell	7,654	11.6%	LAB Hold

Before David Wright, a Government whip, tweeted “"you can put lipstick on a scum-sucking pig but it is still a scum-sucking pig" he was hardly guaranteed a seat in the next parliament. This remark appears even more foolish when you consider the fallout in America when Obama made the comment Wright was “echoing”. Telford (and previously The Wrekin) has been held by Labour since 1987 and a 7.4% swing is slightly higher than the Conservatives have been polling recently. But this mishap has left Wright fighting for his political life. Eleven weeks is very a long time in politics so it would be jumping the gun to put this down as a Tory gain today. In order of likeliness; Wright may quit, his account may have actually been hacked or the whole debacle may turn out to be a storm in a tea cup. But the chances of Conservative PCC, Tom Biggins, being elected are significantly higher now than they were last week. Biggins has stood for Parliament twice in the Welsh constituency of Clwyd South. Although he couldn’t increase the Conservative vote total there the local councillor is appears well set to make it third time lucky.

Geoff Hoon is unlikely to win many popularity contests at the moment so his decision to stand down may actually help Labour win Ashfield. The Ashfield CLP had tabled a motion of no confidence against the ex-minister which probably helped him make his decision. They are defending a large majority so providing they find a solid candidate they should hold the seat. Labour has won Ashfield at each General Election since the seat was created in 1955. The Tories briefly took the seat in the 1977 by-election but normality was resumed two years later. The opposition parties have strong candidates in experienced councillor Garry Hickton (CON) and Ashfield Council leader Jason Zadronzy (LD). But this could play into Labour’s hands by splitting the opposition vote. This will be a Labour hold unless one challenger emerges as the clear alternative and ex-Labour councillor Edward Holmes takes votes off Labour for the BNP.

Lastly, Austin Mitchell has been a bit miffed about how he was treated on Channel 4’s reality TV show Tower Block of Commons. But he candidly alluded to his fundamental error when he said "I should have turned them down. All the smarter Labour MPs did". Hindsight is a wonderful thing! Mitchell should have been safe as houses. He won the seat in 1977 in a by-election and Grimsby has not failed to return a Labour MP since World War II. But on top of this PR mishap, Mitchell has also been implicated in the expenses row; his odd claims included biscuits, whisky and a sofa cover. It’ll be a very bad night for Labour if they start losing seats like this but Mitchell needs to be on the ball for the next couple of months to prevent that. Conservative PPC Victoria Ayling probably has a bit too much to do but she could run this one close.