Reporting on four holds would usually be a fairly boring affair but the rare poor night for Labour is noteworthy in itself. In Warrington they failed to gain a seat from the Liberal Democrats in ward they won less than three months ago. Labour also struggled to make up any ground in two London wards the Conservatives were defending as well as one in Lancashire.
I'll start in Warrington where Labour looked likely to win a seat in Poulton North from the Liberal Democrats following the resignation of Liberal Democrat Councillor Sharon Wilson due to work commitments. Wilson won her seat in 2008 with a huge majority but Labour were victorious here in 2010 and 2011 so it wasn't unreasonable to expect the Lib Dems to lose their final seat here in this by-election. As it was Colin Oliver, who was the Lib Dem Councillor for this ward until this May, won by 211 votes which represented an 8.5% swing from this year's election.
It's hard to tell if this is the start of a revival for the Liberal Democrats after a disastrous year for them in local elections. Labour had selected a candidate with a two week holiday to Spain booked during July and his absence from the campaign trail will have surely contributed to his loss. There were also controversial circumstances surrounding the Lib Dems' other recent by-election victory in a ward last contested this spring and so whether the party has really started to recover from rock bottom remains to be seen. This week's by-election for Somerset CC might give us a better idea as the two District Councils wards that make up the vacant division were contested this May and there are no obvious reasons for a shock result.
Although Labour are sure to be disappointed with their failure to win this seat they still enjoy a healthy majority in Warrington with the next round of elections due to take place next May.
Poulton North (Warrington) | |||
By-Election Candidate | Votes | Vote % | +/-* |
Colin Oliver (E) | 1106 | 48.3% | +9.1% |
Ashley Pemberton | 895 | 39.1% | -7.8% |
Mark Chapmen | 190 | 8.3% | -5.6% |
James Ashington | 97 | 4.2% | +4.2% |
* Change from 2011
The two by-elections in London were both comfortably held by the Conservatives and, somewhat surprisingly, Labour made little to no ground up in either contest. The Bush Hill Park ward, Enfield was vacant following the resignation of Tory Councillor Eleftherios Savva, who is moving to Cyprus for family reasons. Labour were unlikely to achieve the 7% swing required to gain the seat but the 2.1% swing away from them to the Conservatives was a little unexpected. There was a similar result in Harrow where a seat in the Stanmore Park ward was up for grabs following the resignation of Mark Versallion, who lives in Central Bedfordshire and won a seat on the Council there in May. Despite the presence of an ex-Tory Councillor on the ballot paper the Conservatives' vote share held steady and the swing to Labour was a nominal 0.58%.
Labour's performance in the capital a last year's General Election was relatively strong and has generally led to smaller swings in London by-elections since then compared to elsewhere in the country. Labour won a majority of seats in London last year so to be holding their vote share in by-elections in fairly safe Conservatives wards is hardly a complete disaster. In sharp contrast to the Warrington result the Liberal Democrat vote share fell by around 10% in both London by-elections, in keeping with their usual performance in uncompetitive wards last contested in 2010.
Labour control both Harrow and Enfield and they are likely to do so until the next all out elections in 2014
Bush Hill Park (Enfield) | |||
By-Election Candidate | Votes | Vote % | +/-* |
Lee Chamberlain (E) | 1108 | 44.5% | +6.1% |
Ivor Wiggett | 668 | 26.8% | +2.0% |
Tony Kingsnorth (Ind) | 230 | 9.2% | +9.2% |
Paul Smith | 177 | 7.1% | -12.3% |
Douglas Coker | 100 | 4.0% | -6.5% |
Gwyneth Rolph | 70 | 2.8% | -4.1% |
Stephen Squire | 61 | 2.5% | +2.5% |
Clive Morrison (CP) | 45 | 1.8% | +1.8% |
Ben Weald | 29 | 1.2% | +1.2% |
* Change based on highest vote from 2010
Stanmore Park (Harrow) | |||
By-Election Candidate | Votes | Vote % | +/-* |
Marilyn Ashton (E) | 1395 | 58.1% | -0.4% |
Niraj Dattani | 509 | 21.2% | +0.7% |
Eric Silver | 299 | 12.4% | +12.4% |
Sylvia Warshaw | 98 | 4.1% | -9.4% |
Linda Robinson | 53 | 2.2% | -5.3% |
Herbert Crossman | 48 | 2.0% | +2.0% |
* Change based on highest vote from 2010
Finally, the Conservatives held a safe ward on the Blackburn with Darwen Unitary Authority. The Beardwood with Lammack ward was vacant following the resignation of Conservative Councillor Sheila Williams due to ill health. The Tories have won this ward for the past two years with just over 60% of the vote and Thursday's result fitted in nicely with that pattern. The slight swing towards the Conservatives came at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. Labour currently control the Council with a comfortable majority with partial elections due to take place next May.
Beardwood w/ Lammack (Blackburn w/ Darwen) | |||
By-Election Candidate | Votes | Vote % | +/-* |
Julie Daley (E) | 1097 | 63.8% | +3.4% |
Ashley Whalley | 572 | 33.3% | +0.1% |
Salim Lorgat | 51 | 3.0% | -3.5% |
* Change from 2011
Tom Harris
