…18% in October 2009 to 18% in October 2010, according to ICM. That sentence doesn't quite fit together. Yet, the headline contains the sentiment pushed by certain sections of the media, and many Labour activists. Of course, the daily online polling by YouGov is consistently showing less favourable figures for Nick Clegg's party. Arguments between activists are sparked daily by the News International polls, and clearly the ICM and YouGov figures can't both be right. So, who to believe? Are the Liberal Democrats fine or are they heading for electoral disaster? Well, no-one will really know until we have another General Election, but I think there are a few reasons for Lib Dems to keep the faith for the time being. I'll begin by comparing last year and this year's ICM monthly polls from June to October.
| 2009 | 2010 |
June | 18% | 21% |
July | 20% | 19% |
August | 19% | 18% |
September | 19% | 18% |
October | 18% | 18% |
As you can see there is very little difference, and from a base of 18% last October the Lib Dems climbed to 24% in the only poll that matters. Now, ICM is widely considered the best pollster for UK voting intention. They were second in the 2010 General Election league table for polling companies, only beaten by RNB India – who mysteriously appeared on the UK polling scene during the campaign and have since left again. YouGov scored a disappointing eighth. ICM have also been consistently accurate at General Elections for a number of years, especially with regards to the Liberal Democrats' vote share. But to just use one pollster to advance the argument that the Lib Dems will be alright on the night is no better than simply taking the daily News International figure, tweeting the seat distribution of a hypothetical parliament on Universal Swing and then chortling! (You know who you are!)
The league table shows that the difference between the established phone pollsters -ICM, Populus and IPSOS Mori - is negligible. All three were easily within the Margin of Error of the final result. The league table also shows that every polling company overestimated the level of the Liberal Democrats support. As a result of this they have all tweaked their past vote weighting (apart from Mori, who don't past vote weight) to the new 2010 figures. The last two polls for Populus and Mori were conducted at they same time at the start of September, and gave Liberal Democrat figures of 14% and 15% respectively. This is interesting as last year, and throughout the summer, these two companies were fairly consistent with the ICM figures. Although lower than ICM, these figures are still a couple of points higher than YouGov are showing. The next polls from these two will be quite intriguing to see if there is a genuine split between the polling companies.
Whatever the true figure, one trick the Liberal Democrats have up their sleeve is that they often enjoy campaign boosts. The table below shows the last ICM poll before the official campaign starts and the actual result in all the elections since the formation of the 'Liberal Democrats'.
| Pre-Campaign | Result |
1992 | 16% | 18% |
1997 | 17% | 17% |
2001 | 14% | 19% |
2005 | 20% | 23% |
2010 | 20% | 24% |
In all bar one case they have increased their vote share from the pre-campaign vote share. In 1997, despite the apparent lack of a campaign boost, the party more than doubled their seat total. Hardly a failure! But we are now in an era of 'New Politics'. Can we still assume that the Lib Dems will enjoy this campaign increase at the next General Election? I'll venture a qualified yes. In many respects they are still struggling to get publicity, and when they do it's often negative. If the next General Election does indeed take place in 2015 then there is a strong possibility that the Lib Dems will be able to champion policies they have implemented, and they will gain almost equal media coverage if, as assumed, the televised debates will become a regular feature of British campaigns.
Of course it's quite clear anecdotally that a few of those who vote Lib Dem in 2010 will not do so again because of their decision to enter into a coalition Government with the Conservatives. In fact, ICM have consistently shown around 17% of Lib Dem voters have switched to Labour since the General Election. That accounts for roughly two thirds of their 6% 'loss' in the last six months. My gut feeling is that a significant percentage of those voters were the undecideds who broke for Clegg in the Spring. They prehaps viewed the party as Labour-lite, and are to be found in seats were Labour were uncompetitive. There is some evidence of this in Kavanagh & Cowley's British General Election of 2010, which Mike Smithson has helpfully republished. The Liberal Democrats vote increased most in seats the Conservatives won in 2005 with Labour in second. Clearly, Labour were unlikely to win so the 'progressives' didn't have to worry about tactical voting. Losing tactical votes in CON/LD marginals is more of a threat, but it's debateable how much that helped the Lib Dems in May.
Without delving too far into party political analysis (that's Chris' job!) Liberals are Liberals. There are distinct differences between Liberal Democrats and Labour; if they weren't, they'd all be Labour! In fact, I'd go as far as saying Labour would struggle to exist if it didn't have an illiberal streak. The party needs act a certain way on issues such as Immigration and Crime to keep its core vote. As a result I find it hard to imagine many long standing Liberal voters having made the switch out of anything more than anti-Tory sentiment. If any of these voters happen to live in the 16 seats which the Liberal Democrats hold from Labour I suspect they'll stay at home at a General Election.
So, how optimistic should the Lib Dems be? Well, I think they have, once again, missed their chance in a generation to usurp Labour as the second party in the UK. At points in the this years campaign this looked possible, but the result and subsequent coalition agreement have probably ensured that the 2010 result will be Labour's low water mark. However, if this Government is a success I wouldn't rule out a Hague style failure for Miliband in 2015. In addition, if the AV referendum is passed then I think the two-and-a-half will be locked in for a while, preventing both a collapse in the number of Lib Dem MPs but also any large gains. Considering that this time last year most Liberal Democrats would have jumped at the chance of only losing a handful of seats in May, treading water for the time being should be a positive.
Their performance in 2015 is going to depend a lot on the balance of Liberal Democrat policies implemented against policies Lib Dems campaigned against getting implemented. If they manage to win the PR battle on that front then I see no reason for their polling rating to decline any further. Surely anyone who is anti-coalition has already deserted. Their biggest problem is voters who support the party on issues they oppose. This means the current battle of tuition fees is an extremely important one for the future of party.
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