A remarkably unremarkable night of by-elections

I have to confess that when I previewed this week's by-elections I wasn't expecting them to be an interesting bunch. Of all the weeks I could have been working on a Thursday night it certainly wasn't the worst. All three elections resulted in holds for the defending parties, and contrary to popular reports, the underlying vote shares were quite stable for Council by-elections.

I'll start in Kentish Town, Camden where the result was so popular the ward actually trended on twitter! This was the third election to take place in Camden since the General Election, with the previous two resulting in wins for the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives. This week it was Labour's turn to score a victory in the London Borough as the comfortably held this seat. The vacancy in Kentish Town had arisen due to the death of Cllr. David Horan who was elected in May as Labour gained all three seats in the ward from the Lib Dems. Nick Russell was one of the defeated Liberal Democrats and he was fighting his third Kentish Town election in two years. Russell won a by-election in 2008 and served two years as a Camden Councillor. This could be part of the reason the Lib Dem vote only dropped by 3.6% from May, a fall which doesn't warrant the term crushed. Labour's very impressive result was mostly down to their ability to pick off votes from all the parties as they seem to have recovered well in urban seats since the General Election. The Conservatives and the Greens were the main victims of Labour's 17.7% increase as Jenny Headlam-Wells cruised to a resounding victory. Her campaign was certainly aided by one of the best election leaflets delivered all year!

Camden Borough Council
LAB		LD		CON				GRN
30	-	13	-	10		-		1		-
Kentish Town (Camden)
Candidate					Votes		Vote %		+/-
Jenny Headlam-Wells (E)					1411		53%		17.7%
Nick Rusell					715		26.9%		-3.6%
Naomi Aptowitzer					349		13.1%		-4.7%
Will Blair					186		7%		-5.1%

The other top-tier by-election on Thursday was in the Scottish Council of South Lanarkshire. There was a vacancy in the East Kilbride West ward as the sitting Labour Councillor, Michael McCann, was elected as the new MP for East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagam in May. As there will be a referendum on whether Britain will adopt the Alternative Vote voting system for Westminster by-elections in Scotland are viewed with heightened interest. They use the Single Transferable Vote system for local council elections, which essentially becomes AV when there is only one seat up for grabs. Sadly for election geeks these vacancies keep arising in pretty solid Labour wards. Alan Scott comfortably held the seat for Labour, although he did need all stages to officially see off his challengers. The result wasn't too bad for the Scottish National Party either as, although they didn't come near to winning, recent Holyrood Voting Intention polls have shown them miles behind Labour. The SNP will be aiming to gain a seat on the Moray Council in a couple of weeks, so their performance in that will give further indication of how they will perform next May. Plus, it should be a better example of AV at work!

South Lanarkshire Council
LAB		SNP		CON				LD			IND
32	-	23	-	8		-		2	-		2	-
E Kilbride W (S Lanarks)
Candidate					Votes		Vote %			+/-
Alan Scott (E)					847		41.4%			0.8%
Pat McGuire					571		27.9%			-2.4%
Ian Harrow					403		19.7%			5.7%
Raymond Burke					82		4.0%			0.2%
Brian Jones					71		3.5%			-0.7%
Gordon Smith					70		3.4%			-3.7%

		Stage [Quota 1023]
Candidate	1stP%	1	2	3	4	5	6
Alan Scott (LAB)	41.4%	847	863	873	892	973	1297
Pat McGuire (SNP)	27.9%	571	587	606	641	761
Ian Harrow (CON)	19.7%	403	427	442	455
Raymond Burke (GRN)	4.0%	82	85	100
Brian Jones (EKA)	3.5%	71	76
Gordon Smith (LD)	3.4%	70
No-Transfer		6	17	33	254	437	747

Finally, the Liberal Democrats held a seat on the Cheltenham Borough Council. The comfortably defended the Springbank ward despite the inclusion of a Labour and a Green candidate in what is usually a straight fight between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems. The Tories came off worse as their vote dropped by 13.4%. Although the Lib Dems' vote share was also slightly down they still secured almost two thirds of the vote.

Quick By-Election Round-Up (28th October)

My shifts haven't fallen well this week. Not only did we miss last night's live tweeting, I'm not going to be able to provide a full round up until tomorrow at the absolute earliest. So for now you'll have to make do with just the results!

Labour comfortably held both the seats they were defending last night. In Kentish Town, Camden they enjoyed a 10.6% swing towards them from the Liberal Democrats. However, the Lib Dems only lost 3.6% themselves, so the result wasn't as terrible as it looks. In fact, the Conservatives and the Greens both lost around 5% to Labour indicating that this was a good result for the reds rather than a bad one for the yellows. In East Kilbride West, South Lanarkshire Labour required all the rounds to secure victory in this AV election. The full transfers weren't up at the time of writing (3am) but the first preference share was remarkably unchanged from the 2007 election. There was a slight SNP>LAB swing but Labour still only received just over 40%. This will be quite pleasing for the Scottish Nationalists who were trailing Labour by a 10 point margin in the last Holyrood poll.

The other by-election last night was for Springbank, Cheltenham BC and the Liberal Democrats easily held the seat. There was a 5.2% swing towards them from the Conservatives, but this is slightly distorted because of the additional candidates standing for this vacancy. The Lib Dems vote share dropped slightly, although it was the Tories who seemed to suffer most from the inclusion of a Labour candidate in the race.

By-Election Preview (28th October)

After a few busy weeks we have a quiet night on the by-election front tomorrow. There are only two top-tier vacancies to be filled this week, along with one District Council by-election. I'll be honest, they aren't that exciting!

The London Borough of Camden is holding its third election since May. The first was deferred from the full council elections following the death of a candidate, which the Liberal Democrats won handily, and the second was an easy hold for the Tories in a safe ward. This by-election is for another LAB/LD marginal, Kentish Town, which Labour are defending following the death of Cllr. David Horan. Labour gained all three seats in this multi-member ward from the Lib Dems early this year, and given their strong performances in by-elections they are favourites to hold this. But this isn't a forgone conclusion. The Labour victory in May wasn't large and they would have been helped by the General Election turnout. The Liberal Democrats won all 3 seats in 2006 and they only require a 2.5% swing to make a gain tomorrow. They also won two by-elections in this ward during the 2006-10 Council term, one of which was courtesy of their candidate for this election. Nick Russell was 196 votes shy of holding his seat in May and his two years as a Councillor will only aid his campaign. Labour are in a much better polling position nationally than they were in 2008, and even 2010, so it'll be tough for Russell to win another Kentish Town by-election.

Kentish Town (Camden)
Candidate	2010
Jenny Headlam-Wells (LAB)	35.4%
Nick Rusell (LD)	30.5%
Naomi Aptowitzer (GRN)	17.8%
Will Blair (CON)	12.1%
N/C (BNP)	2.7%
N/C (SOC)	1.7%

We have our second post General Election in by-election in Scotland, which gives us another chance to see the Alternate Vote in action. Unfortunately, it's in a ward where Labour received 40% of the vote in 2007. The East Kilbride West (yes, the West side of East Kilbride!) ward on the South Lanarkshire is vacant as the sitting Labour Councillor, Michael McCann, was elected as the new MP for East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagam in May. In 2007 the Scottish National Party candidate topped the vote, but the combined first preferences of the two Labour candidates show they are favourites to win this by-election. Labour are in a much stronger position north of the border than they were in 2007 so it's likely they'll increase, their vote rather than suffer a swing against them. Labour are probably unlikely to win the 50% of the vote required to win this on first preferences alone, but the expected swing towards them should get them close enough to win with ease.

E Kilbrude W (S Lanarks)
Candidate	2007
Alan Scott (LAB)	40.6%
Pat McGuire (SNP)	30.3%
Ian Harrow (CON)	14.0%
Gordon Smith	7.1%
Brian Jones (EKA)	4.2%
Raymond Burke (GRN)	3.8%

Finally, the Liberal Democrats are defending Springbank, Cheltenham BC against the Conservatives. This is usually a straight fight between the Lib Dems and the Tories in full council elections, but Labour and the Greens are fielding candidates for this vacancy which could shake things up. The Lib Dems took 70% of the vote here earlier in the year though so it looks like an easy hold.

Unfortunately, my shifts haven't fallen well this week and the usual by-election service doesn't seem possible. Midnight is the earliest I'm likely to be online and any results that have come in by then will be tweeted.

Guest Post @WhoRulesWhere Mk. II

Following in Chris' footsteps I've written a guest post on the US mid-terms for Fred Carver's WhoRulesWhere blog. It's focussed on the US Congressional races, and I'm handing over another post on the Gubernatorial and State Legislature elections later in the week. The post is designed to give an overview for anyone who is interested in US Politics but hasn't really been following the current campaign too closely. However, if you have been keeping up to date then feel free to head over and disagree with my analysis! Finally, a quick warning; it's pretty epic. I'd recommend settling down with a nice cup of tea before you start!

A Coalition electoral pact would mean the end of the Liberal Democrats

Every now and again, some bright spark in the Conservative Party suggests an electoral pact with the Liberal Democrats, or that the coalition may survive after the next election in 2015. Most recent is Francis Maude who apparently believes that the Coalition should continue after 2015 even if the Conservative Party has a majority! The benefits for the Cameron clan are obvious. Firstly there is the fear that pro-government votes could split between the two coalition partners, and secondly Cameron appears to be rather enjoying coalition government. Much comment has been made of Cameron’s supposed use of Liberal Democrats as ‘human shields’ but less commented upon is the way in which the Liberal Democrats allow Cameron to jettison unpopular or unlikely policies in his manifesto beloved by the Conservative right and truly govern from the centre: no Inheritance Tax cut, no extremely difficult negotiations with the EU over attempted repatriation of powers and a much more liberal prisons and crime policy. One occasionally suspects that in some areas Cameron and Clegg find themselves more in agreement than with some of their own party’s. So for Cameron such a deal would be very much A Good Thing, and for the Liberal Democrats it may look superficially look, a guarantee of a return of Lib Dem MPs, and a likely place in government despite poll ratings that are less than encouraging.

Yet it is my view that to do so would be for the party to risk its own existence. The big problem with coalition for the party is that the party is finding it extremely difficult to keep its identity separate from that of the government as a whole. This is always a problem for junior parties in coalitions; inevitably most policy comes from the senior party. In this case to the big issue is economics policy and the essential tenor of Coalition economic policy is by far and away slanted towards the Conservative Party – the Coalition deal essentially being a deal where certain Liberal Democrat policies were exchanged for support for the Conservative cuts programme. This problem is exacerbated by the fact that in reality the majority of Britons only know a handful of Lib Dem policies – support for PR and abolition of tuition fees being the most important. Often times coalition policy is proposed and the public may well like it, but they do not realise it is Liberal Democrat policy as is likely to happen with this week’s announcement of a universal ‘citizens pension’ which is very similar to prior Lib Dem policy.

A united Coalition election deal would only serve to increase this identity crisis. The party would essentially become an annex of the Conservative Party like Liberals of day past like the Liberal Unionist Party or the National Liberals. It is worth remembering that there are a lot of MPs in the Lib Dems who view themselves as left-wing and hate the Conservative Party, as well as a lot of activists and such a deal risks inviting an ideological split between the party’s internal left and right. It is also worth remembering that even those on the right of the party still generally hold pro-European values, liberal views on crime and immigration and a radical view of constitutional change in Britain, there is a reason why they joined the Liberal Democrats and not the Conservatives. Finally it is worth remembering that there is a section of the Conservative Party which has no love for the Lib Dems either. Nadine Dorries MP is a bit of an oddball but she was not just speaking for herself when she said that the Lib Dems were “more opposite to my beliefs than Labour” and that she would “rather die” than form an electoral pact with them.

It may well be that as the Liberal Democrats enter the 2015 election the national picture looks bleak for them. Five years of Coalition will have undoubtedly had its strains as the party’s identity is squeezed. It is hard to imagine them scoring many gains in 2015, but even the party is wrecked by Coalition it should stand by itself. At least then it can guarantee the survival of the party, and from there it can rebuild. There is a place for the party in the party system, and its voters are not simply disaffected Conservatives or Labour supporters, but while I solemnly believe the party can survive a term in Coalition, campaigning as a Coalition and then a second term can only mean the end of the party, whether it means a merge into the Tories, or a more likely split into two.

By-Election Watch (25/10/10)

Here are this week's changes to the by-election page. Not too many new ones, which may be because almost within 6 months of the next elections in many local councils. A few Councillors thinking of retiring may be holding fire until then, which will result in the by-election getting deferred until next May.

Council	Type	Ward	Party	Reason	Date
Conwy	Wales	Eglysbach	Plaid Cymru	Resigned	18th Nov
Bradford	Metro.	Worth Valley	Conservative	Resigned	25th Nov
Gloucestershire	County	Rodborough	Conservative	Death	TBA

A topsy-turvy night ends with a big defeat for Labour

The big news last night was Labour's sensational defeat in the Tower Hamlets Mayoral election. Up until then Labour had been enjoying some good results in local council by-elections, although rumours were abound that they'd lost the contest early in the night. They did manage to gain seats from the Conservatives in Medway and from the Liberal Democrats in Oxford, as well as managing 75% of the vote in defence of a ward in Sheffield. The Tories themselves scored an impressive gain from the Liberal Democrats in Swansea, whose vote dropped by large amounts in wards they were previously strong. However, the Lib Dems performed a lot better in the rural, English by-elections as they gain a seat from the Conservatives in Mole Valley (Surrey), and ran them close in Mendip (Somerset) and Chiltern (Buckinghamshire).

We'll start with the top story (where else!). It wasn't just that Labour lost the Mayoral election in Tower Hamlets that was surprising, but the sheer scale. The ex-Tower Hamlets Council Leader, and original official Labour Party candidate for this election, Lutfur Rahman secured twice as many votes as his successor, in both roles, Helal Uddin Abbas. Rahman's victory was so great there was no need for second preferences (the Supplementary Vote system was used) to be counted as the Independent received almost 52% of the vote. I highly doubt this will be the end of a sorry chapter for Labour, summarised here, as Rahman's victory was almost certainly aided by the appearance of Ken Livingstone on the campaign trail with him. Many within the Labour Party are upset at Ken's intervention, including NEC member Luke Akehurst and my namesake; The Rt. Hon. Member of Parliament for Glasgow South. Tom Harris has received a bit of heat for suggesting Labour members shouldn't campaign for second preferences, but in many ways this completely misses the point. There was less than no chance that Rahman and Abbas wouldn't finish in the top two on first preferences, and so the second preferences of their supporters were irrelevant. In my mind it's pretty clear what Ken was up to, and so it will be interesting to see what, if any, action is taken.

Returning to the nitty gritty business of local council by-elections, and these went much better for Labour. The by-election for River, Medway was the second since the General Election after the winner of the last one resigned less than a fortnight after his victory. The gain was an significant one for the Conservatives as it was their first from Labour since the General Election, but their new Councillor was told he was unable to remain as a Special Constable if he served as a Councillor. There were suggestions that the Tories should have sorted this out before the election, and this may have filtered into their loss. In their defence they managed 14 more votes than in August, but it wasn't enough to prevent John Jones, who was the defeated candidate in the previous by-election, taking the seat back for Labour.

Labour also easily held the two seats they were defending last night. In Sheffield they were defending the Manor Castle ward following the death of Cllr. Jan Wilson. They held the seat with an impressive 75% of the vote, which represented a 17.5% swing to Labour from the Liberal Democrats. This doesn't bode well for the minority Liberal Democrat administration as they look set to lose control of the Sheffield next May, if not sooner. In Bassetlaw, Labour managed an even greater victory as they received 82% of the vote in the Harwoth ward.

In Oxford the Liberal Democrats were again on the receiving end of a strong Labour performance as they lost a seat in the Barton & Sandhills ward for the second time this year. The Lib Dems held both seats in this multi-member ward earlier this year but having lost one in May the other slipped from their control last night. To rub salt in the wounds Labour enjoyed an unnecessary 10% swing towards them from their May victory, as the Lib Dem vote share dropped to just 23%.

Things didn't get any better for the yellows in Newton, Swansea. The vacancy arose following the resignation of Liberal Democrat Cllr. Susan Waller-Thomas, who won her seat in 2008 with a 200 vote majority from the Conservatives. However, in 2008 Plaid Cymru and Labour did not stand, and their inclusion on the ballot this time seems to have harmed the Lib Dems. Labour polled 16% from nowhere last night, although it would be a harsh to take too much away from the Tories, who increased their vote by over 9%. This all contributed to a very poor result for the Lib Dems as the Tory candidate Mike Thomas gained the seat on a 18.8% swing.

In the final top-tier battle the Liberal Democrats made the Conservatives work hard for their victory in Andover South, Hampshire CC. The by-election was held following the death of Tory Cllr. David Kirk, and this is another ward which appeared a fairly safe for the defending party. However, the Lib Dems managed a 12% swing towards them to fall just short of a surprise gain. David Drew narrowly held for the Tories by 72 votes which, due to a relatively high turnout, represented a winning margin of just 2.6%.

In addition to their performance in Hampshire the Liberal Democrats did well in a few of the District Council vacancies the Conservatives were defending. In Mole Valley (Surrey) they gained the Capel, Leigh & Newdigate ward on a 5.4% swing, which may have been aided by the circumstances surrounding the vacancy. The Tory incumbent had resigned just four months after his election claiming being a Councillor "requires enormous commitment and frankly having got into it, I can't do it." So it was hardly surprising the voters turned to the Liberal Democrat who held the ward between 2006 and 2010. I expect he knows what he's getting into!

The Liberal Democrats produced a couple more surprise performances against the Conservatives, running them close in Ashwick, Chilcompton & Stratton, Mendip DC (Somerset) and Great Missenden, Chiltern DC (Buckinghamshire). The Tories survived swings of 13.1% and 19.6% respectively to secure victories a lot tighter than they'd envisaged. The Ashley Green, Latimer & Chenies ward was also up for grabs in Chiltern and the Conservatives comfortably held it. They also enjoyed an easy hold in Abbey, East Staffordshire DC – securing a whopping 88% of the vote.

Finally, the Tories were involved in a couple of battles with Independents on the Elmbridge Borough Council (Surrey) in which they would have liked to have done better. The St. Georges Hill Independents are pretty strong in the St. Georges Hill ward and they managed to easily fend of the Conservative challenge. The Tories gained a seat of the local Independents in May but normal service was resumed last night. The other vacancy in Elmbridge was for the Hersham North ward and the Tories held this seemingly safe ward by just 10 votes from an Independent. It's quite intriguing to see Independents more than hold their own in recent weeks, despite the resources (activists) the main parties can commit to these by-elections.

Tower Hamlets Mayor
Candidate	Votes	Vote %
Lutfur Rahman (E)	23283	51.8%
Helal Uddin Abbas	11254	25%
Neil King	5348	11.9%
John Griffiths	2800	6.2%
Alan Duffell	2300	5.1%

 

Medway Council											Sheffield City Council
CON		LAB		LD		IG		IND			LD		LAB			GRN				IND
33	-1	10	+1	7	-	4	-	1	-		41	-	40	-		2			-	1			-
Candidate				Votes		Vote %		+/-			Candidate				Votes			Vote %				+/-
John Jones (E)				695		45.5%		+5.4			Terry Fox (E)				2092			75.8%				+20.4
Andrew Mackness				631		41.3%		+2.3			Robbie Cowbury				303			11%				-14.5
Garry Harrison				92		6%		-2.1			Graham Wroe				224			8.1%				+3.8
Martin Cook				42		2.8%		-3.9			Christina Stark				142			5.1%				-2.1
Steven Keevil				36		2.4%		+2.4
Ron Sands				31		2%		+2

 

City & County of Swansea													Hampshire County Council
LAB		LD		IND		CON		CoS		PC			CON		LD			LAB				IND
27	-	23	-1	13	-	5	+1	3	-	1	-		51	-	25	-		1			-	1			-
Candidate						Votes			Vote %				Candidate				Votes			Vote %				+/-
Miles Thomas (E)						545			46.6%				David Drew (E)				1183			42.7%				-6.4
Simon Arthur						299			25.6%				Len Gates				1111			40.1%				+17.6
Pam Erasmus						187			16%				John Newland				245			8.8%				+1.8
Peter Birch						108			9.2%				Anthony McCabe				233			8.4%				-13
Rob Lowe						31			2.6%