Another set of poor by-election results for the Tories as Labour and Lib Dems pick up seats

Despite the polling trends, it's the Conservatives who seem to be struggling in post-coalition by-elections and not the Liberal Democrats. Given that the Tories appear to have risen 6 points since the election, and the Lib Dems have lost almost half their support, both parties could be forgiven for being a little bemused about their differing fortunes when voters are actually heading to polling stations. In this week's two top-tier elections Labour trounced the Conservatives in Wolverhampton and the Lib Dems won a Bath and North East Somerset (BANES) ward in which they didn't even field a candidate when the whole Council was elected in 2007. In the one District Council election in Mid Sussex the Tories held the seat, but there was a big swing towards the Liberal Democrats.

We'll start in BANES, where there was a by-election for the Radstock Ward following the death of Independent Councillor Alan Hall. As I noted on Wednesday, the 2007 vote for this ward was quite unusual in that a number of Independent candidates received a majority of the votes, yet only Hall was elected. Last night's result would rest on where these voters would end up, and it would seem a great deal of them headed to the Liberal Democrats. Cllr. Simon Allan came from no-where to win the seat by almost 150 votes. The extra seat for the Lib Dems takes them within four of the Conservatives, who are currently running the Council as a minority administration. The local Tories must be at least slightly worried about next year's full Council election after last night.

Bath & North East Somerset Council
CON		LD		LAB		IND
31	-	27	+1	5	-	2	-1
Candidate				Votes		Vote %
Simon Allen (E)				542		40.1%
Lesely Mansell				386		28.5%
Keith Pate				370		27.3%
Deirdre Horstmann				55		4.4%

In Wolverhampton, the Conservatives were always going to struggle to hold Bilston North against Labour. The by-election was trigged due to the death of Cllr. Gill Fellows and it left the Council on a knife edge. The Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition, which formed after May's elections for a third of the Council, held 31 seats out of 60 with Follows. Labour held the other 29, including the other two seats in Bilston North. It is therefore unsurprising that Cllr. Linda Leach managed to win last night, leaving Labour with same amount of Councillors as the coalition. Currently, the Liberal Democrat Mayor has the deciding vote, but with another third of the Council due for re-election next May Wolverhampton is in a state of political flux.

Wolverhampton City Council
LAB		CON				LD
30	+1	25		-1		5	-
Candidate			Votes		Vote %		+/-%
Linda Leach (E)			1292		64.9%		+23.5
Marlene Berry			460		23.1%		-21.5
Stewart Gardner			131		6.6%		+6.6
Barry Hodgson			55		2.7%		+2.7
Darren Friel			52		2.6%		-4.7
N/C (GRN)			-		-		-6.6

In the only District by-election last night Conservatives suffered a 13% swing to the Liberal Democrats in Haywards Heath – Franklands, Mid Sussex DC. The good news for the blues is that they still held the seat and that most of the increase in the Lib Dem vote came from Labour and an Independent. The Tory vote stood still and the hold means they still enjoy a comfortable majority.

In the Town and Parish elections the Liberal Democrats were the big winners, gaining a seat off the Conservatives on the Crewkerne Town Council (Somerset) and Franklin on the Haywards Heath Town Council (West Sussex). They also gained Keynsham South on the Keynsham Town Council (Somerset) from Labour and the South Ward on the Redruth Town Council (Cornwall) from an Independent. Finally, the Tories gained Bolslowick on the Falmouth Town Council (Cornwall) from an Independent and an Independent was elected unopposed on the St Agnes Parish Council (Cornwall).

By-Election Preview (29th July)

After a couple of busy weeks there are only two top-tier by-elections and one District poll taking place tomorrow. But sometimes quality is better than quantity, and the two top tier elections are both interesting contests. Despite the lack of election activity in principle authority Councils this week, there are still 5 Town and Parish vacancies to be filled.

We'll start in Wolverhampton where the death of Conservative Cllr. Gill Fellows has left the City Council on a knife edge. The 2010 election left the Conservatives needing a little help from the Liberal Democrats to stay in control of the Council. Although Labour won 29 of the 60 seats the other two parties combined to run the Council on a wafer thin majority of two. With that in mind the last thing the Coalition needed was a vacancy in a Ward they will find very difficult to hold. In 2008, Fellows won her seat in Bilston North by only 92 votes but in May this year Labour comfortably carried this ward. The third seat in the multi-member ward is also held by Labour, and so things don't look to good for the Tories. They might have been helped by the Lib Dems standing aside, but their coalition partners decided against this and they are fielding a candidate for the by-election. It's debatable whether this would have saved the seat for the Conservatives anyway as their 2010 vote combined with the Lib Dems' total was still less than Labour's. It seems probable that Labour will gain Bilston North tomorrow leaving Council split 30/30. The Liberal Democrat Mayor would then possess the casting vote.

Bilston North (Wolves)
Candidate	2008	2010
Marlene Berry (CON)	44.6%	29.6%
Linda Leach (LAB)	41.4%	45.3%
Darren Friel (LD)	7.3%	13.3%
N/C (GRN)	6.6%	-
Stewart Gardner (BNP)	-	11.8%
Barry Hodgson (UKIP)	-	-

The Bath and North East Somerset (BANES) Council is also very tight, but in this instance it is run by a minority Conservative administration. They currently hold 31 of the 64 seats on the Council but they are unlikely to gain the Radstock Ward up for grabs tomorrow. The by-election is taking place following the death of Independent Councillor Alan Hall. In 2007 Labour won the most votes in this multi-member ward, however they only fielded one candidate. Second place was a close battle between five Independents, in which Hall came out on top, and the Conservatives were quite a way behind. The vote percentages given below are of each party's* best candidates total, however the combined votes breakdown very differently: LAB 20.6%, IND 65.6%, CON 13.9%. It will be interesting to see where the votes from the Independent candidates go tomorrow, especially as a Liberal Democrat is standing this time around.

Radstock (BANES)
Candidate	2007
Lesely Mansell (LAB)	46.7%
Keith Pate (IND)	37%
Deirdre Horstmann (CON)	16.3%
Simon Allen (LD)	-

The sole District Council by-election this week is for the Haywards Heath – Franklands Ward on the Mid Sussex Council. The Conservatives run the Council with a majority of seven. They are also the defending party in this tomorrow, but it's a ward they easily won in 2007 so I doubt they'll be unduly worried.

The five Town and Parish by-elections are all taking place in the South West: Keynsham South, Keynsham Town Council (Somerset); Mount Hawke, St Agnes Parish Council (Cornwall); Bolslowick, Falmouth Town Council (Cornwall); South, Redruth Town Council (Cornwall); Crewkerne Town Council (Somerset).

* Independents counted as one 'party'

To ConDem(n) the Welsh Referendum?

A new government in the UK, the Conservative - Lib Dem coalition, brought forward an agenda of respect in regards to their relations with all the devolved governments, be they in Cardiff Bay, Hollyrood or Stormont. It would be hard, not to mention premature to assess its success now, less than three months since the government came into power, but the events of next spring (the referenda, both on AV and devolution, local and regional elections) may force an early assessment. More importantly, given the rather ... historic nature of the Welsh referendum, it is crucial to see how relations between Westminster and Cardiff may influence its outcome.

Firstly, the new secretary of state, Cheryl Gillan, was widely criticised after the first Welsh leaders' debate for arguing Rhodri Morgan was still First minister and who, apparently, once stated that she was extremely happy to have 'got out' of Wales. Going beyond her abilities or her previous position as Shadow Welsh Secretary, the main problem with this choice of Minister is the fact that she doesn't represent a Welsh constituency. Peter Hain was quoted as saying this wasn't really a 'sensible' choice, while Plaid Cymru called it a return to the 1990s. Thus, given that the coalition have, in-between them, 11 MPs in Wales, it would not have been that hard to pick one; moreover, in stark comparison, the clearly left-leaning electorate in Wales (29/40 MPs without the Lib Dems, 31 with) got a Conservative Secretary of State, whereas Scotland got two Lib Dems within the space of a fortnight (I doubt anyone has already forgotten the David Laws episode, which saw, as a domino effect, the Secretary of State for Scotland job being passed from Danny Alexander to Michael Moore, both Liberal Democrats).

One thing must be said at this point: My purpose here is not to evaluate her competence, merely to point out how her actions are perceived and their consequences from this point of view. And it's not looking very good. First, the whole squabble over the date, the question and the procedure for the devolution referendum, though maybe not her fault entirely, but of the previous administration, followed by arguments and contradictory statements with the opposition and the Labour-Plaid government in Cardiff Bay. Then, the Prime Minister, in PMQs, announced that the referendum was to be held next year at a time when the idea was still debated and then hinted at his 'not eligible to vote' status in Wales when asked whether he would vote YES or NO in it. This gave the Westminster opposition (or the Welsh government, depends how you look at it, party-wise) the best punch line against Gillan's actions. Lastly, the Welsh Grand Committee met at the end of June. And it was a proper circus. First, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury gave evidence of the Budget, but it seems that only he and the Welsh Secretary knew about it before hand. Consequently, his speech wasn't made available to the members of the committee, the agenda had to be changed at the last minute and, though this apparently isn't against the rules of procedure, it is frowned upon. Then, the rules of procedure apparently seemed to take a whole life of their own, as the chair, Conservative MP Graham Brady lost all control over the meeting and started making rules as he went, while everything, as a Labour MP pointed out, turned into a 'farce' (proceedings here). So much for the Respect agenda ...

Lastly, there's the impact of the government's measures on Wales, which will to a great extent influence opinion and votes in spring 2011 and the dreaded government cuts will be first in the minds of all voters. Yet, the emergency budget has clearly ring-fenced health and protected education, thus protecting the devolved budgets from the worst cuts, while also bringing most cuts in the area of social security which in the devolved regions is the responsibility of the central government (see Devolution Matters for a comprehensive analysis). These measures together with the fact that the regional governments have been allowed to postpone them until next year, thus just enabling them to ensure few cuts are delivered until the spring elections/referenda, have basically ensured that any strong feelings against the measures will be directed at Westminster politicians and not at the regional ones (further enhanced by the fact that both in Scotland and Wales, the parties in power are the opposition in Westminster).

Hence going back to Wales, a contestation of the new Secretary of State for Wales followed by the debatable success of her activities (the Welsh Office has been called 'the laughing stock of Whitehall') together with the blame for the drastic economic measures going to Westminster, will see an increase in Welshness across the principality and in trust in the government in Cardiff Bay, as opposed to the one in London. This will, then, ensure that the high numbers of those going for a YES vote in the referendum (55% in favour, YouGov/ITV Poll - June 2010) have the potential to increase even further. Who would have thought that Cheryl Gillan together with the Westminster Conservatives (who aren't 'really' for the YES vote on this) would actually be some of its greatest 'advocates'...

By-Election Watch (26/07/10)

Here's our current list of forthcoming by-elections. After a busy couple of Thursdays there are only two top-tier polls this week. As a result, I'll cover the by-election for the Haywards Heath Franklands Ward on the Mid Sussex District Council in more detail than I would have done.

Council	Type	Ward	Party	Reason	Date
Wolverhampton	Metro.	Bilston North	Conservative	Death	29th Jul
Bath & North East Somerset	Unitary	Radstock	Independent	Death	29th Jul
Rotherham	Metro.	Sitwell	Conservative	Death	5th Aug
Medway	Unitary	River	Labour	MP	12th Aug
Redcar & Cleveland	Unitary	Brotton	Labour	Resigned	26th Aug
Sheffield	Metro.	Woodhouse	Labour	Death	26th Aug
Edinburgh	Scotland	Liberton/Gilmerton	Labour	MP	9th Sep
Exeter	District	All Wards		Ineligible	9th Sep
Norwich	District	All Wards		Ineligible	9th Sep
Kensington & Chelsea	London	Cremone	Conservative	Misconduct	16th Sep
Kensington & Chelsea	London	Earls Court	Conservative	Misconduct	16th Sep
Tower Hamlets	London	Mayor		Created	21st Oct
Cheshire East	Unitary	Alderley	Conservative	Death	TBA
Cumbria	County	Aspatria & Wharrels	Conservative	Death	TBA
Durham	County	Brandon	Labour	Death	TBA
Gateshead	Metro.	Lobley Hill & Benshaw	Labour	Death	TBA
Gwynedd	Wales	Bowydd & Rhiw	Llais Gwynedd	Resigned	TBA
Gwynedd	Wales	Seiont	Independent	Death	TBA
Herefordshire	County	St Nicholas	Independent	Death	TBA
Knowsley	Metro.	Park	Labour	Personal	TBA
Liverpool	Metro.	Croxteth	Labour	Death	TBA
Middlesbrough	Unitary	Ayresome	Labour	Resigned	TBA
Nottinghamshire	County	Worksop West	Conservative	Death	TBA
St Helens	Metro.	Billinge & Seneley Green	Labour	Death	TBA
Tameside	Metro.	Longdendale	Labour	Death	TBA
West Sussex	County	Maidenbower	Conservative	MP	TBA

A good night for the Lib Dems as their by-election fortunes improve

With a string of poor by-election results, and their polling figures dropping as low as 13%, the Liberal Democrats must have been apprehensive about defending five seats last night. But the party did very well, holding all their seats and taking another off the Conservatives in Torbay. The Tories were the big losers of the night losing half of the six seats they were defending. In Torbay they also failed to defend a Town Council seat against an Independent, and Labour took a seat off them on the Babergh District Council (Suffolk).

We'll start in Torbay where the death of Conservative Cllr. Stuart John had left vacancies on the Torbay Unitary Authority and Brixham Town Council. The Lib Dems needed a swing of 5.8% to win the seat but given their recent results it seemed like a difficult task. Not for newly elected Cllr. Andrew Baldrey though, who produced a brilliant result for his party by winning the seat on a 20.2% swing. And as mentioned, an Independent gained John's Town Council seat to round off a poor night for the Conservatives in South Devon.

In West Berkshire, where the roles were reversed, the Lib Dems held Thatcham South & Crookham in a straight fight against the Conservatives. Needing a swing of just 2.7% the Tories actually lost ground to the Lib Dems as Cllr. Robert Morgan increased his party's vote by 1.6%. The Lib Dems also held the same ward on the Thatcham Town Council.

In London, there were two more contests between the Tories and the Lib Dems which the former won with ease. The Liberal Democrats are usually less competitive in the capital and last night was no exception. In Camden, Cllr. Gio Spinella easily defended a big majority in the Frognal and Fitzjohns ward, increasing his party's vote by almost 10%. In Kensington & Chelsea, the Conservatives did even better against their national coalition partners. Cllr. Rock Feilding-Mellen secured 75% of the vote, an increase of almost 20%, in spite of a recent scandal in involving two Conservative Councillors.

In Wales, Labour continued their string of good results by holding the Cymmer ward on the Rhondda Cynon Taf Council. Plaid Cymru needed only a 1.9% to take the seat off Labour but the Welsh nationalists lost votes to the three new candidates who did not stand in 2008. Cllr. Chris Williams held his Labour's vote at just over 50% as Plaid Cymru's vote dropped by almost 15%. Labour also easily held a seat on the Pontypridd Town Council, in Rhondda Cynon Taf.

In other results, Labour gained Great Cornard North on the Babergh District Council from the Conservatives. Only the Conservatives and Labour stood in 2007 and it was the Tories who lost votes to the Liberal Democrat and UKIP candidates standing this time. As well as their top-tier results, the Lib Dems held Nethermayne on the Basildon District Council (Essex), Kidlington North on the Cherwell District Council (Oxfordshire) and Bridge on the Lewes Town Council (East Sussex). Finally, the Conservatives held Warwick South on the Warwick District Council and an Independent beat an Independent in a by-election for the St Germans Parish Council (Cornwall).

Torbay Borough Council												West Berkshire District Council
CON		LD			IG			IND				Conservatives		Lib Dems
23	-1	10	+1		2	-		1		-		36	-	16		-
Candidate				Votes			Vote %		+/-%			Candidate		Votes	Vote %		+/-%
Andrew Baldrey (E)				801			52.7%		+16.4			Robert Morgan (E)		936	54.3%		+1.6
Nicholas Henderson				365			24%		-23.9			Dominic Boeck		787	45.7%		-1.6
Rosemary Clarke				195			12.8%		+12.8
Jen Walsh				159			10.5%		+10.5
N/C (BNP)				-			-		-15.8

 

Camden Borough Council													Kensington & Chelsea Borough Council
LAB		LD		CON				GRN					CON		LAB		LD			VAC
30	-	13	-	10	-			1			-		41	-	9	-	2	-		2		-
Candidate				Votes			Vote %			+/-%			Candidate				Votes		Vote %		+/-%
Gio Spinella (E)				1061			62.6%			+9.5			Rock Feilding-Mellen (E)				649		75%		+19.3
David Bouchier				329			19.4%			-2.3			Martin Wilson				146		16.9%		-3.1
Jack Smith				235			13.9%			-3.9			Jack Bovill				70		8.1%		+8.1
Charles Harris				71			4.2%			-3.2			N/C (LAB)				-		-		-13.8
													N/C (GRN)				-		-		-10.5

 

Rhondda Cynon Taff County Borough Council
LAB		PC		IND		LD		CON
45	-	20	-	6	-	3	-	1	-
Candidate				Votes		Vote %		+/-%
Chris Williams (E)				740		52.3%		+0.4
Nicole Griffiths				470		33.2%		-14.9
Paul Wasley				142		10%		+10
Steven Rogers				41		2.9%		+2.9
Kevin Jakeway				23		1.6%		+1.6