Why with a Labour leadership contest of course! An election is an election, even if it isn't technically for a parliamentary position! Yet, who the next leader of the Labour Party is will affect politics and life in Britain far more than any by-election. The next Labour leader has a pretty good chance of being this country's next Prime Minister, but how will the new leader be elected?
There are two stages. Firstly a candidate needs to be nominated to the ballot. The nominations of 12.5% of MPs (33) are required to be nominated. This threshold is considered rather high in parts, and it is likely that of the six current candidates Diane Abbott and John McDonnell may not make it, whereas Andy Burnham will probably pass the hurdle but currently does not have the MPs. The Labour website handily details the various candidates and who has nominated them. There are several reasons why one may nominate a candidate, firstly one may support them for leader (obviously). Secondly a MP may not support a candidate but want to see them on the ballot. This is the case of right-wing Labour MP Frank Field (who is now serving as Cameron's 'poverty czar') who has nominated 'Old Labour' candidate John McDonnell. Field's nomination is said to be to have the widest possible list of candidates rather than actual support. Another may be career related – backing the eventual winner early on will make you look loyal to the new leader, which may aid promotion. There are currently 90 MPs (35.02% of the party) who have not declared. My own hope (and what will probably be best for the Labour Party) is that these 90 MPs break in such a way as to guarantee the largest field of candidates possible.
Once the final nominees have been decided, the actual election will go forward. The election uses the Alternative Vote method and is composed of an 'electoral college' of three equally weighted parts – the MPs and MEPs, Labour party members, and trade union and 'affiliated society' members. You CAN have multiple votes in each category. Let's say you're a MP who is a member of the UNITE trade union, the Labour Party itself and the Fabian Society, an affiliated think tank organisation. Then you get 1 vote in the MP and Labour Party membership colleges and two in the trade union and affiliates college. Despite the 'equal' weighting of the three groups, it is worth remembering that there are 271 MPs and MEPs, maybe a couple of hundred thousand Labour Party members, and millions of trade unionists. The system is essentially a compromise, it gives a voice to Labour's trade unionist base and its membership base but it avoids a situation where more left-wing members and trade unionists might thrust a leader onto MPs who they view as unelectable, (also the reasoning behind the high nominations threshold), unless they are capable of winning overwhelming support amongst those groups.
Perhaps the best way of seeing how a Labour leadership election works out in practice is to look at one, but as the last Labour leadership election was in 1994, and was won overwhelmingly by Tony Blair, with slight rule changes since then a better overview is perhaps provided by the 2007 deputy leadership contest, which operates under the most similar rules. Here is round 1.
Candidate | Members of Affliated Organisations (%) | Members of Labour Party (%) | MPs and MEPs (%) | Percentage of Electoral College |
Jon Cruddas | 27.27% | 17.01% | 13.89% | 19.39% |
Harriet Harman | 13.05% | 24.12% | 19.62% | 18.93% |
Alan Johnson | 13.65% | 16.59% | 24.24% | 18.16% |
Hilary Benn | 14.79% | 21.63% | 12.81% | 16.4% |
Peter Hain | 19.92% | 11.61% | 14.43% | 15.32% |
Hazel Blears | 11.31% | 9% | 14.97% | 11.77% |
Left-wing candidate Jon Cruddas started out ahead, due to overwhelming popularity amongst trade union and affliated societies. Among Labour Party members he is also popular, but less so, coming third. Among MPs he is second from last, winning the 'Old Labour' MPs, but few of the 'New Labour' ones. Hazel Blears came last so she was eliminated (as this is an Alternative Vote election) and the preferences of her voters were redistributed. Onto round 2!
Candidate | Members of Affliated Organisations (%) | Members of Labour Party (%) | MPs and MEPs (%) | Percentage of Electoral College |
Alan Johnson | 17.73% | 19.05% | 34.41% | 23.74% |
Harriet Harman | 15.45% | 26.4% | 21.87% | 21.23% |
Jon Cruddas | 28.92% | 18.03% | 14.22% | 20.39% |
Hilary Benn | 16.68% | 23.79% | 14.22% | 18.22% |
Peter Hain | 21.24% | 12.72% | 15.3% | 16.42% |
The votes of Arch-Blairite Hazel Blears were re-distributed. Unsurprisingly the bulk of her support went to another Blairite – Alan Johnson, who, with more than a third of MPs and MEPs now behind him, shifts from third to first. Jon Cruddas is too left-wing for the supporters of Blears so he was knocked down from first to third, all in all, he only gained a single percentage point. Peter Hain was second amongst affliated societies, but was still eliminated due to a particularly weak showing amongst Labour Party members. Rounds 3 and 4 were fairly boring, everyone remained where they were and Peter Hain and Hilary Benn were eliminated in order, so let's fasttrack to the penultimate round of Round 5.
Candidate | Members of Affliated Organisations (%) | Members of Labour Party (%) | MPs and MEPs (%) | Percentage of Electoral College |
Alan Johnson | 30.75% | 32.1% | 46.17% | 36.35% |
Harriet Harman | 28.38% | 41.46% | 30.78% | 33.58% |
Jon Cruddas | 40.83% | 26.43% | 22.95% | 30.06% |
The contest is down to three candidates – Alan Johnson, Harriet Harman and Jon Cruddas. Each had their obvious power base. Bookies favourite Johnson was popular amongst MPs and MEPs, Harman was popular among Labour members where her feminist campaign likely played well amongst young progressive activists and Jon Cruddas was popular among the trade unionists where his traditional left-wing rhetoric played well. However his inability to attract New Labour transfers led to his elimination.
Candidate | Members of Affliated Organisations (%) | Members of Labour Party (%) | MPs and MEPs (%) | Percentage of Electoral College |
Harriet Harman | 48.58% | 56.49% | 46.26% | 50.43% |
Alan Johnson | 51.45% | 43.5% | 53.73% | 49.56% |
In the sixth and final round Harman won by a hair breadth over Alan Johnson. While her campaign had little to do with Socialism per say it was identifiably to the left of Johnson's and this may have helped her win transfers from Cruddas. Yet it is worth noting that amongst Cruddas's key territory of trade unionists she lost, as among the MPs and MEPs. Harman's real success was amongst the Labour membership, the only group she won. Yet there is no sign of universal hatred amongst trade unionists and MPs and MEPs, she still achieved 46% amongst her worst group (MPs and MEPs). I have to say this system is my favourite electoral method of the three main parties as it gives a fair voice to the party base, but guarantees that a leader unpopular with MPs is not chosen, which can lead to a rebellious parliamentary group (see Iain Duncan Smith who was elected under less well thought out rules). It is also worth noting that this system makes it very unlikely that a left-wing candidate like Abbott, Cruddas or McDonnell can win due to the MPs (though it is not impossible).
Britain Votes will continue to cover the leadership election as it continues. Expect to see more soon.
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