Labour HOLD Inverclyde

Labour have held their Westminster seat in Inverclyde with a reduced majority. The Scottish Nationalists managed an 8.8% swing but it was no where near enough to take the seat. In fact, Labour's vote share only dropped slightly as the SNP mainly took their votes from the Liberal Democrats, whose vote collapsed by 11.1% and they lost their deposit. It's worth bearing in mind that area the Lib Dems have done well here in the past and they controlled Inverclyde Council as recently as 2007. The Conservative vote held steady and, despite early rumours suggesting they might come fourth, UKIP didn't make much of an impression in this by-election.

By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Iain McKenzie (E)	15118	53.8%	-2.2%
Anne McLaughlin	9280	33.0%	+15.5%
David Wilson	2784	9.9%	-2.1%
Sophie Bridger	627	2.2%	-11.1%
Mitch Sorbie	288	1.0%	-0.1%

If we cut through all the spin and bluster this result fits nicely with the pattern from last month's Scottish Parliament elections and subsequent local Council by-elections in Scotland since then. The SNP have almost doubled their vote share to close the gap to Labour but the huge deficit they faced proved too much to overcome. This is largely because their new found support is mostly coming from the Liberal Democrats, who crashed to just 2.2% of the vote. In the absence of a direct swing between them and Labour the SNP are always going to struggle to win seats such as Inverclyde.

So, where does this leave everyone compared to rational expectations of the parties' performance? Well, Labour will be very pleased to have held on to half the vote so soon after their disastrous Scottish Parliament election. Although the 2010 General Election was a bad one for Labour across England and Wales their Scottish leader helped them increased their vote share north of the border. In light of this, and the loss of David Cairns' personal vote, Iain McKenzie has done very well to keep his party's vote share up with last May's result.

Although they will be a little disappointed not to have won this by-election the SNP can also be happy with this result as a 15.5% increase in vote share would have won them a number of other Westminster seats. Although Scottish Labour politicians are doing the rounds claiming this result shows that the Salmond bandwagon has ground to a halt privately they will be worried about next year's Council elections across Scotland. The SNP would have won a lot more seats if they had stood more candidates in 2007 and bar any mishaps between now and next May they are set to be the big gainers next May.

As the for the coalition partners this is a by-election to forget. For the Conservatives they can quite literally let this slip from their minds as their vote share barely budged. It's the party they overtook for third place who have the most to worry about after this result. For the second time this Parliament the Lib Dems have failed to hold their deposit and it's hard to spin your vote share dropping 11%.

Almost without exception voters in Scotland and the north of England have punished the Liberal Democrats for their perceived betrayal in entering a coalition with the Tories. It's hard to see a way for them to turn this around unless they can show tangible benefits to voters in these areas that the Lib Dem presence in Government is improving their lives. So far the Liberal Democrats have managed to take most of the flak for the coalition whilst the Conservatives have enjoyed any credit. If this does not change then the 2011 local election results are going to be repeated every year, culminating in a very difficult General Election for the third party.

Finally UKIP have again failed to make an impression in a by-election, which will be disappointing for them following their outstanding performance in Barnsley Central. To be fair, Scotland is not fertile ground for anti-EU party and few were expecting them to improve much on their 2010 result.

Currently there are no future Westminster by-elections pending, although a vacancy in the Inverclyde South Council ward looks likely following Iain McKenzie's win last night.

Debates provide talking points in Inverclyde By-Election

After the Statement of Persons Nominated was released for the Inverclyde by-election for those watching from a far news on the contest has been scarce. The general assumption on our part was that the SNP were struggling to make any ground on Labour and the by-election was a foregone conclusion. However, a couple of debates scheduled late in the campaign appear to have changed things a little.

Exactly a week before polls closed STV's Politics Now programme aired a debate with four of the five candidates (UKIP were excluded). The event was sure to be a banana skin for Labour candidate Iain McKenzie who, all things being equal, should have been cruising to victory. Unfortunately for Labour he didn't exactly cover himself in glory as and, as others have pointed out, gifted the young Liberal Democrat candidate Sophie Bridger an amusing put down when he consistently talked over her (see from around 17 minutes).

The SNP are in the best position to take advantage of any slip ups from Labour in this by-election but their candidate Anne McLaughlin feels she has scored a major victory in this campaign. The issue revolves around a leaked document that the SNP claim defines the criteria for Inverclyde Council to make compulsory redundancies. The SNP candidate pushed McKenzie, the leader of Inverclyde Council, on the issue during the first debate but he avoided explicitly ruling out compulsory redundancies.

It was in a second debate on the Politics Show (44 mins) that McLoughlin brought up the issue again and the Labour candidate stated that there will be no compulsory redundancies and there were no plans for any in the first place. Both sides have been spinning this locally and with job creation such a big issue in this by-election this is sure to have played a role in the final week.

What is striking from the debates is how much the other candidates managed to wind up McKenzie. He was cautioned by the chairs for interrupting and certainly didn't give off the aura of a candidate confident of victory on Thursday. Annoyingly this is first by-election of the Parliament that has not been polled so knowing exactly where everyone stands in this contest is difficult. Besides, any fieldwork for a poll would have been conducted at the end of last week so the fallout from the two debates would not have been captured.

Given the lack of media attention on this by-election before last Thursday it's safe to assume Labour were heading for an easy victory and although the SNP are fighting hard in the final few days I don't think it will be enough. McKenzie should hold this for his party, but I expect his majority to be a lot smaller than the 14,416 David Cairns racked up last May.

By-Election Candidate	2010
Iain McKenzie (Lab)	56 %
Anne McLaughlin (SNP)	17.5%
Sophie Bridger (LD)	13.3%
David Wilson (Con)	12%
Mitch Sorbie (UKIP)	1.2%

Tom Harris

Inverclyde Parliamentary By-Election Candidates

(Source: Inverclyde Council)
Sophie Bridger (Liberal Democrats)
Iain McKenzie (Labour)
Anne McLaughlin (Scottish National Party)
Mitch Sorbie (United Kingdom Independence Party)
David Wilson (Conservative)

The by-election will be held on June 30th 2011 and as usual we shall be following the result live on Twitter and (fingers crossed) Cover it Live as well

Labour select Iain McKenzie as their candidate for the Inverclyde by-election

Labour have selected the Inverclyde Council Leader Iain McKenzie as their candidate for the forthcoming Parliamentary by-election in Inverclyde. McKenzie fought off four other candidates on the shortlist to win the nomination and he will begin his campaign wary of the threat posed by the Scottish Nationalists. Although on paper this seat is safer than some Labour have defended this year the previous three Westminster by-elections have been in constituencies where the Liberal Democrats were second at the last General Election. The SNP may require a swing of almost 20% from last year but their performance in the recent Scottish Parliament elections should keep Labour honest.

Anne McLaughlin was chosen as the Scottish Nationalist's candidate on Thursday and although a gain may be a step too far there is certainly a good chance this will be the first by-election where Labour's majority is cut this Parliament. The SNP were only 511 votes short of gaining the roughly equivalent Greenock & Inverclyde constituency last month and Labour are starting from a better position in this seat as their vote in Scotland actually increased at the General Election last year.

Currently no date has been set for the by-election although rumours of the 30^th June have been going around. If that is to happen the writ would need to be moved this week. There have been other suggestions that the contest will be delayed until the autumn.

Here's the 2010 result with the declared by-election candidates:

By-Election Candidate	2010
Iain McKenzie (Lab)	56%
Anne McLaughlin (SNP)	17.5%
- (LD)	13.3%
- (Con)	12%
- (UKIP)	1.2%

SNP chose their candidate for Inverclyde; Labour’s selection meeting Saturday

Things have started to move for the Inverclyde by-election despite the fact the date has yet to be set. The Labour MP David Cairns passed away last month and rumours of late June and September are circulating. With a gap of two months between the two suggested dates we could be in for a very short or a very long campaign.

It is the Scottish Nationalists who have been first to find their candidate as they have selected Anne McLaughlin to contest the by-election. The SNP were the nearest challengers to Labour here last year. She has fought numerous constituency elections for her party over the last decade and represented Glasgow during the second half of the last Scottish Parliament following the death of a regional MSP. She lost her seat in last month's elections having been selected eighth on the SNP's regional list.

Labour are also not wasting any time as there is a selection meeting due to take place this Saturday to choose their candidate. According to LabourList the local party will pick from the following:

• Frankie Caldwell
  
• Iain McKenzie
  
• Martin McCluskey
  
• Melanie Ward
  
• David Whitton
  

As with all the by-elections thus far in this Parliament Labour are favourites to win. However, following their outstanding performance in the Scottish Parliament elections last month the SNP will hope to run Labour close. The Scottish Nationalists produced a 6.9% swing to come just 511 votes short of an unlikely gain in the Greenock and Inverclyde constituency, which is the closest equivalent to the Inverclyde seat Labour are defending in this by-election. The dynamics of this campaign are going to be vastly different to the Scottish Parliament one but this is likely to be the first by-election since the General Election where Labour's majority does not substantially increase. It's also worth remembering that Labour did much better in Scotland than the rest of the UK last year and so they are starting from a better position than in their other recent defences.

Here's the 2010 result:

		2010
Labour		56%
SNP		17.5%
Lib Dems		13.3%
Conservatives		12%
UKIP		1.2%

Statement of Persons Nominated Released for Belfast West by-election

As promised yesterday the Statement of Persons Nominated has been published for the Belfast West by-election to replace Gerry Adams. In addition to the three names we had already the UUP, Alliance and People Before Profit Alliance (PBPA) are fielding candidates for this contest.

Bill Manwaring of the UUP and Gerry Carroll of the PBPA both stood for their respective parties at the recent Assembly election and Manwaring was the UUP candidate for the 2010 General Election. The Alliance have selected Aaron McIntyre who unsuccessfully stood for them at the recent Lisburn City Council elections.

Here's the full list of candidates along with the recent election results in the seat:

By-Election Candidate	GE2010	NIA2011
Paul Maskey (SF)	71.1%	66.1%
Alex Attwood (SDLP)	16.4%	13.2%
Brian Kingston (DUP)	7.6%	7.5%
Bill Manwaring (UUP)	3.1%	4.2%
Aaron McIntyre (All)	1.9%	1.1%
Gerry Carroll (PBPA)	-	4.8%
- (Workers Party)	-	1.7%
- (Socialist Party)	-	1.1%
- (IND)	-	0.4%

Candidates for Belfast West (thus far)

UpaI believe that nominations for the Belfast West by-election close tomorrow but there are a few declared candidates already. The seat is vacant because Gerry Adams stood down to contest the Irish General Election and you will be hard pressed to find anyone suggesting that Sinn Fein will not retain this by a comfortable margin. Paul Maskey has won the coveted nomination to be Sinn Fein's candidate and the Belfast West MLA is sure to replace his leader as the new MP on June 9^th.

As for the other candidates, the SDLP, who should come second in this Nationalist area, have kept faith with Alex Attwood. He is their sole MLA in Belfast West and has stood for this Westminster seat in every election since 2001. The DUP are the only other party likely to save their deposit at this by-election and they have selected Brian Kingston as their candidate.

Here's last year's General Election and this year's Assembly result for your perusal:

By-Election Candidate	GE2010	NIA2011
Paul Maskey (SF)	71.1%	66.1%
Alex Attwood (SDLP)	16.4%	13.2%
Brian Kingston (DUP)	7.6%	7.5%
- (UUP)	3.1%	4.2%
- (All)	1.9%	1.1%
- (People Before Profit)	-	4.8%
- (Workers Party)	-	1.7%
- (Socialist Party)	-	1.1%
- (IND)	-	0.4%

 

Update (1030): Harry has informed me that nominations closed yesterday afternoon and the Statement of Persons Nominated will be published later on today.

More by-elections (parliamentary) in the offing?

Firstly, the dutiful hat tip to Political Betting.com and specfically "Morus" (aka Greg Callus) who has posted this morning that thanks to various international "problems" there could be a few more parliamentary by-elections on the horizon soon. These "problems" revolve around the proposition that the IMF might be in need of a new Managing Director and that the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policym has not been made to feel that welcome around the EU table. So where does he think the next by-election to the UK Parliament may be?

Well, for the position at the IMF the honourable member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Gordon Brown MP) has had the financial background (being Chancellor from 1997 - 2007) but a) could the IMF really have a person who was Prime Minister during a financial crisis as chairman of an organisation who bails out countries and b) could David Cameron really have the PM before him looking over his shoulder. Which brings us to the honourable member for Rushcliffe (Ken Clarke MP) who is also a former Chancellor of the Exechequer, but Greg believes he would be happier as a Trade Commissioner in the European Union one day.

What about the honourable member for South Shields (David Milliband MP)? As Greg points out "for the bonus prize of irritating Gordon Brown, Cameron should try and manoeuvre DM into the IMF job, but I suspect he lacks the economic policy chops for that" which brings us to the most suprising suggestion of all and that is the honourable member for Sheffield, Hallam and current Deputy Prime Minister (Nick Clegg MP) where Greg notes "He is multi-lingual, a former MEP, pro-European, and as Deputy Prime Minister has the pedigree to be a Vice President of the Commission. I think he would be perfectly suited to Brussels, should he find himself knifed by his own party, or should Cameron need a consolation prize and mark of gratitude if he decides to dissolve the Coalition and call a General Election"

So keep your eyes on Brussels, New York and Washington DC (as it's very likely the next UK by-election could well be triggered there more than anywhere else)

Things are finally moving in Belfast West!

It has taken almost four months but the writ for the Belfast West by-election has finally been moved. The Government Chief Whip Patrick McLoughlin did the deed yesterday and the date is expected to be 9^th June. The seat has been vacant since Gerry Adams resigned from Parliament to successfully contest the Republic of Ireland General Election in March.

The real contest to become the next MP for Belfast West will take place before the actual by-election when Sinn Fein decide on their candidate. Gerry Adams secured over 70% of the vote last year's General Election and Sinn Fein continued their dominance in this constituency earlier this month as their candidates won two thirds of the first preferences cast in the Assembly Election. Paul Maskey pipped his running mates to the top spot on May 5^th and he is the only person to throw his hat into the ring thus far. Apparently, Sinn Fein's selection will take place this week.

Here's the 2010 result:

	2010
Sinn Fein	71.1%
SDLP	16.4%
DUP	7.6%
UUP	3.1%
Alliance	1.9%

 

Nb. In related news, I have finally found the time to update our Council By-Election page; there will be no rest for the wicked!

Inverclyde MP David Cairns has passed away; aged 44

On Monday evening the Labour Member of Parliament for Inverclyde David Cairns sadly passed away after a short illness. Cairns was admitted to hospital in March with acute pancreatitis. Aged just 44 his death is a huge shock and we offer our condolences to his family and friends.

Cairns was first elected in 2001 having already won his first political battle. As an ordained Catholic Priest an ancient law would have barred him from taking up his seat if he was successful in his bid to become the MP for Greenock & Inverclyde, as the seat was known then. Just before Parliament was dissolved a bill was passed to revoke the act that would disqualify Cairns. He went on to easily win the safe Labour seat.

During his time as an MP Cairns successfully championed a bill to prevent shop workers being forced to work against their will on Sundays. He went on to became a junior minister in the Scottish Office in 2005 but he resigned in 2008 as he was unable to publicly support Gordon Brown. You can find fuller obituaries on all the newspaper's websites and many political blogs. Our personal recommendation would be the Glasgow South MP, and good friend of David Cairns, Tom Harris', which you can find here.

There will be a by-election for the Inverclyde constituency in due course which will be covered on this website. However, it doesn't seem quite right to start talking about the political fallout after just 48 hours; we'll come back to this in a week or so.

Labour comfortably hold Leicester South

In amongst the many elections taking place last Thursday there was the small matter of a new Member of Parliament to find. The by-election to replace Sir Peter Soulsby as the MP for Leicester South was easily won by Labour as Jon Ashworth received almost 60% of the vote; an 8.3% swing from last year's General Election.

By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Jonathan Ashworth (LAB)	19771	57.8%	+12.3%
Zaffur Huq (LD)	7693	22.5%	-4.4%
Jane Hunt (CON)	5169	15.1%	-6.2%
Abhijit Pandya (UKIP)	994	2.9%	+1.4%
Howling Laud Hope (OMRL)	553	1.6%	+1.6%

The Labour hold was hardly a surprise, but rather less expected was the resilience of the Liberal Democrat vote. Given their performance in the Barnsley Central by-election most were expecting the Lib Dems to slip into third place, but they stayed comfortably ahead of the Conservatives. Of course, this is scant consolation given the party's other poor results last week but their candidate Zaffur Huq should be pleased with himself. He received more votes in Leicester South than the Liberal Democrats' mayoral candidate managed across the whole city. The Lib Dems could do worse than look at this result, along with others that bucked the trend, as they regroup from this round of elections.

The Conservatives doing poorly in a Westminster by-election is hardly news but it is interesting that UKIP did not profit. The anti-EU party surprised everyone as they snatched second place in Barnsley and although they doubled their vote share from last May here they still lost their deposit by some way. The fact this by-election took place in conjunction with local council elections was sure to favour the more established parties in the city but UKIP's PR disasters during the campaign can't have helped their chances. I think we'll need to wait until the next Parliamentary by-election to see if Barnsley was a flash in the pan for Nigel Farage's party or the start of something a little more substantial.

As for forthcoming Westminster by-elections the only one confirmed is Belfast West, for which the writ has yet to be moved.

Don’t forget about Leicester South!

A Parliamentary by-election is usually a relatively rare and exciting (well, I speak for myself!) event but the one taking place today in Leicester South is unlikely to live long in the memory. Not only is it buried in a night with along with the English local elections, the Scottish Parliament, the Northern Irish Assembly, the Welsh Assembly, the AV referendum and Northern Ireland locals(!) Labour are sure to win with ease. Those lucky ducks in Leicester South have 4 ballots to put in the box between the AV referendum, the locals, their first elected mayor and this by-election.

The by-election was called when Sir Peter Soulsby MP announced he was standing down to campaign for the Leicester mayoral election, for which he is the Labour Party candidate (and clear favourite).

Labour selected Jonathan Ashworth for the seat. Ashworth is Ed Miliband's 'head of party relations' and he became the immediate favourite. The Lib Dems initial candidate Parmjit Singh Gill then resigned in mysterious circumstances and was replaced by Zaffur Haq. A recent Survation poll has reaffirmed Ashworth's favourite status, showing him on 61% to 20% for Hunt (Con) and 14% for Haq (LD).

The big news late in the campaign is a mysterious fake Liberal Democrat leaflet outlining the party's policy on homosexuality. The leaflet was distributed in Muslim areas with the clear intent to incite homophobic voters within the community.

According to Political Scrapbook, this isn't the first time this dirty trick has been tried in Leicester South as a similar incident occurred during the 2004 by-election campaign, which the Liberal Democrats won. The most baffling part of this sorry episode is that the Lib Dems have no realistic chance of winning this time, so why employ such underhand tactics?

Anyway, here's the 2010 result and the key articles we have written on the by-election:

By-Election Candidate	2010
Jonathan Ashworth (LAB)	45.6%
Zaffur Huq (LD)	26.9%
Jane Hunt (CON)	21.4%
N/C (BNP)	3.0%
N/C (GRN)	1.6%
Abhijit Pandya (UKIP)	1.5%
Howling Laud Hope (OMRL)	-

 

1. Soulsby resigns

2. Labour and Liberal Democrats select their candidates

3. Lib Dem candidate resigns and UKIP select

4. Conservatives select their candidate

5. Survation poll shows Labour miles ahead and UKIP candidate in a spot of bother

Labour on course for easy Leicester South win

A Survation poll for the Independent on Sunday shows that Labour's Jonathan Ashworth is set for a comfortable victory in this week's Parliamentary by-election in Leicester South. The contest has slipped under the radar somewhat with the national media attention focussed on the AV Referendum and the Scottish Parliament Elections taking place on the same day, as well as the small matter of a royal wedding. Labour are defending the seat after their MP Sir Peter Soulsby stood down to contest the inaugural Mayoral election in Leicester and they have been considered strong favourites from the off. Here are the headline figures from the poll:

By-Election Candidate	Poll	+/-*
Jonathan Ashworth (LAB)	61%	+15
Jane Hunt (CON)	20%	-1
Zaffur Huq (LD)	14%	-13
Abhijit Pandya (UKIP)	5%	+3
Howling Laud Hope (OMRL)	0.3%	+0.3

* Changes from the GE2010 result.

Labour's increase in relation to the 2010 result has largely come at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. This is very much in line with the national polls and the result of the Barnsley Central by-election a couple of months ago. The difference between this contest and Barnsley is that the Liberal Democrats are starting from a stronger position but this poll indicates they will hold on to barely half of their support from last May. The Lib Dems do have more of a presence on the Council in Leicester but with local elections and the AV referendum taking place on the same day they are not able to commit any extra resources to this by-election. This has left Zaffur Huq very much at the mercy of national trends.

An interesting finding in this poll is that the Conservatives appear to be holding on to most of their support from the General Election. Again, this is in line with the current national polling but it would represent a change in fortunes for the Tories compared to recent Westminster by-elections. In the two that have taken place so far this Parliament the Conservatives have seen their vote share fall drastically in both, although almost certainly for different reasons. In Oldham East & Saddleworth their supporters tactically voting for the Liberal Democrat candidate in a failed attempt to prevent Labour from holding the seat and in Barnsley they leaked a lot of votes to UKIP as the anti-EU party attracted protest votes from Tories dissatisfied with the coalition. As the Lib Dems do not have any realistic chance of winning this by-election and UKIP are spread thin because of the other elections taking place the Conservatives are looking good for a comfortable second.

Although UKIP do not look likely to repeat their Barnsley performance in Leicester they may well manage to save their deposit. The absence of a BNP candidate in this by-election when they stood at the General Election is likely to help UKIP achieve the 5% required to get their money back. It is worth noting that news of the UKIP candidate Abhijit Pandya's controversial comments on Islam broke in the middle of the fieldwork and so it's not entirely clear if this will harm them. Of course, it is possible that voters sympathetic to UKIP are less likely to find Pandya's views offensive anyway.

One last thing that is worth looking at going into this by-election is how the vote share's will compare to previous elections in the constituency. As this contest is taking place on the same day as a host of other elections the circumstances are about as normal as you're going to get mid-term. Labour's vote share could be a used as a barometer to measure how far they have recovered from last May's poor election.

	1997		2001		2004 b/e	2005	2010*
Labour	58%	55%	30%	39%	46%
Conservative	24%	23%	20%	18%	21%
Liberal Democrat	14%	17%	35%	31%	27%

*As the Leicester South constituency was barely altered in the last boundary review the figures are comparable.

If Labour poll above 60% in this by-election it would represent a return to 1997 levels of support here. This would be a nice moral boost for the party if it wasn't overshadowed by their likely loss in the Scottish Parliamentary Election taking place on the same day. Equally, if the Liberal Democrats only manage 14% that would be no lower than they achieved 14 years ago when they won 46 seats nationally. In short, if the Lib Dem vote halves at this by-election it is not compelling evidence on its own to suggest the party is heading for meltdown at the next General Election. Their performance in the English Council elections will provide a much better idea of how well and, more importantly, where the Liberal Democrats can hold on to their seats they are defending.

UKIP Controversy in Leicester South

There is a, admittedly slim, chance you are wondering what has been going on in the Leicester South by-election. Early this week I realised our last post on the contest was almost two weeks ago but, quite frankly, nothing had happened since the Statement of Persons Nominated was released so there was nothing to report. Since then we have a bit of news, and it isn't too good for UKIP.

On Wednesday the Leicester Mercury picked up on an interesting entry on the UKIP candidate Abhijit Pandya's blog (H/T Lord Bonkers). Amongst other things Pandya called Islam 'morally flawed and degenerate' and freely agreed with the controversial Dutch politician Gert Wilders that the religion was a 'retarded Ideology'. Perhaps more worrying for UKIP is the fact Pandya wrote the article in question on Friday and it took until the following Wednesday to reach even the local papers. Regardless, it did finally surface and as around 20% of the population within the constituency are Muslim this doesn't appear to have been the wisest campaign move.

This 'gaffe', if you can call it that, comes in the wake of complaints that the UKIP candidate for the Leicester Mayoral contest is not up to the job. It has been widely reported that their 18-year-old candidate Regine Anderson has been largely absent from the campaign trail. The official explanation is that she is busy 'studying for her A-Levels'. It would seem 'I completely forgot about a major commitment in my life before I sought and won the selection to stand as a candidate' syndrome is quite prevalent in Leicester. Only a month ago the initial Leicester South by-election candidate for the Liberal Democrats Parmjit Singh Gill withdrew his candidacy five days after his selection when he remembered he suddenly remembered his young family.

Back to UKIP, and they have sent their leader Nigel Farage to the Midlands city to try and salvage the situation. I have to say, publicly confirming you are running a paper candidate in an election is a campaign tactic I have not come across before. To be fair, I imagine Farage is quite grateful this is all getting buried amongst the other election noise and not really reaching the national media. It will be interesting to see if these shenanigans affect how many Tories switch to UKIP in Leicester South compared to the previous two by-elections.

Here is the 2010 result with the full candidate list; for traditions sake:

By-Election Candidate	2010
Jonathan Ashworth (LAB)	45.6%
Zaffur Huq (LD)	26.9%
Jane Hunt (CON)	21.4%
N/C (BNP)	3.0%
N/C (GRN)	1.6%
Abhijit Pandya (UKIP)	1.5%
Howling Laud Hope (OMRL)	-