Brighton & Hove is home to one of the most exciting seats in the country this year. The Green Party could make an historic gain in Brighton if they can come out on top in a three way marginal. Currently Labour hold all three Parliamentary seats in the unitary authority but the Conservatives replaced them as the largest party on the Council in the 2007 local elections. The Tories were agonisingly close to gaining full control winning 26 of the 54 seats and are currently running Brighton & Hove as a minority administration. But the Greens also doubled their councillors from 6 to 12 in 2007 so their tails will be up going into the General Election in May.
Constituency | Incumbent | Notional Majority | Swing Needed | Favourite | Prediction | |
Brighton Pavilion | David Lepper | 5,867 | 6.6% | 7.2% | Evens | GRN Gain |
Brighton Kemptown | Desmond Turner | 1,853 | 2.5% | 1/6 | CON Gain | |
Hove | Celia Barlow | 448 | 1.0% | 1/8 | CON Gain | |
I shouldn't need to tell anyone this is a constituency to watch on election night! Brighton Pavilion is where Caroline Lucas hopes to make history this year and become the first Green MP to be elected to Westminster. Current Labour MP David Lepper won his seat from the Conservatives in 1997 and has been re-elected with comfortable majorities ever since. He is stepping down this year giving Labour's opponents a perfect opportunity to gain an open seat. In 2005 Lepper lost over 12% of his vote to Keith Taylor, who is the leader of the Green Party's group on the Brighton & Hove council. Taylor lost to Lucas in a close vote to be the Green PPC in Pavilion this year but has pledged his support to Lucas' campaign. 9 of the Green's 12 councillors in Brighton were elected from wards in this constituency giving them an advantage on the ground over Labour and the Conservatives, who have 5 and 6 respectively. Only two things are certain here. It's going to be a tight race and it will be won by a woman. Labour have selected Nancy Platts and the Conservative candidate is Charlotte Vere. I'd say Vere is more likely to spoil the Green's party as there is definite potential for the left leaning parties to split their vote. But I reckon this will come down to who wants it more and as it's by far their top priority I think Caroline Lucas and the Green Party will be celebrating in May; Green Gain.
Brighton Kemptown doesn't look too good for Labour either. Desmond Turner was another to ride the Blair wave into Parliament but he's standing down after 13 years an MP. He hasn't left Labour PPC Simon Burgess, the former leader of Brighton & Hove Council, with much of a majority to defend although the boundary commission didn't help in that respect either. The Conservative candidate Simon Kirby is also a former leader of his party's group on the Council and he's a strong favourite to win this back for the Tories. Tory gain is the likely result here.
Finally, Hove is another seat Labour look set to lose in the South East. Defending a tiny majority Celia Barlow has a lot of work to do to hang on to the seat she held for Labour in 2005. Especially as she has received a lot of bad press for claiming £28,000 in expenses for her constituency home in Hove. Like the two Brighton seats, Labour won this from the Conservatives in 1997 but that looks set to change this year. Mike Weatherly is the Conservative candidate charged to win this back and he'll be hoping to make his third run for Parliament a success. He's odds on to take it and I think Barlow would be struggling without her expenses problems; Tory Gain.
