By-Election Preview (15th September) – Scottish Edition

This week's Scottish by-election comes from the Highland ward of Perth and Kinross Council (not to be confused with the Highland Council, neighbouring this ward to the north).  The ward covers the small, picturesque towns of Aberfeldy, Pitlochry and Blair Atholl, along with a vast wilderness of surrounding mountains, lochs and little villages.

Not only is the geography interesting, but there is also some history here with a previous by-election held in 2008.  Indeed, this is now the 4th ward in Scotland to have held two by-elections since the new multi-member wards were formed at the last all-out elections in 2007 (the others being Abbey ward in Dumfries and Galloway Council, and Drumchapel/Anniesland and Baillieston wards of Glasgow City Council).  Indeed, there is also a pending vacancy for another ward at the moment which will be a 5th such example, which seems to suggest given the large number of wards yet to see any by-elections that when one councillor in a ward is replaced it increases the likelihood of another by-election in the future!

In both that previous by-election and back in 2007, the ward was ultra-safe SNP.  It elected two SNP councillors and one Conservative councillor originally, and then the SNP held one of their seats in the past by-election.  The by-election this time around is the result of the other SNP councillor elected back in 2007 resigning, citing that he is emigrating to Australia, but also various internal party grievances.

One of the independent candidates contesting this seat, Chris Rennie (who also contested the 2010 Strathallan ward by-election in the same council area), is playing up this party infighting saying that an independent candidate is better placed to represent their constituents without party influence.  However, his result in his previous outing of just 1.2% of the first preference votes suggest the odds are stacked very firmly against him.

The other independent, William Leszke, may manage to make more of an impact as he comes into this by-election with a history of local organising in Aberfeldy, chairing local committees and having been voted "2008 Citizen of the Year" by the local rotary club.

Graham Rees is contesting the seat again for the Conservatives, having done so in the 2008 by-election where he managed a 1.4% swing from SNP to Conservatives on first preferences.  While he is the main challenger in this seat, he will require a very much larger swing than that to threaten the SNP for the single seat up for grabs here.

The Liberal Democrat candidate Victor Clements may do better in this ward than his party has managed in other parts of Scotland lately, as they have been somewhat more resilient in wards with a strong Tory vote elsewhere in the UK.  However, a substantial drop in their share would be more in character with their recent results in other parts of Scotland.

However, even without the massive swings to the SNP we've seen this year, this is a seat that already starts firmly in the SNP column, and their candidate Mike Williamson seems virtually certain to win the seat come Thursday night, likely on first preferences alone with a very substantial majority of the vote.  This will result in the current SNP/Lib Dem administration maintaining its majority control of the council.

Perth and Kinross Council
SNP	Con	LD	Lab		Ind		Vac
17	12	7	3		1		1
Highland
By-Election Candidate				2008 b/e		2007
Mike Williamson (SNP)				59.9%		58.4%
Graham Rees (Con)				29.8%		25.6%
Victor Clements (LD)				7.3%		13.5%
William Leszke (Ind)				0.0%		0.0%
Chris Rennie (Ind)				0.0%		0.0%
N/C (Lab)				3.1%		0.0%
N/C (Ind)				0.0%		2.5%

 

Kristofer Keane

By-Election Preview (25th August)

Like last week there are two by-elections on Thursday; one in Scotland and one in England. Kristofer Keane will take you through Labour's chances of holding a seat in North Ayrshire whilst Tom Harris looks at who will replace a long standing Independent in Bolsover (Derbyshire).

This week's Scottish by-election comes from the Clyde coastal towns of Saltcoats and Stevenston on North Ayrshire Council, after the resignation of Labour councillor David Munn.

This four-member ward elected two Labour councillors, one SNP and one independent last time around, although in terms of the first preference vote share Labour and the SNP were pretty close with an independent candidate also winning a fair chunk of the vote.

There's a fair plethora of candidates standing in this one too. In addition to the big four (including the Lib Dems who didn't stand here in 2007), there are also representatives from the Socialist Labour Party, the All Scotland Pensioners Party, as well as a new independent candidate.

The Socialist Labour candidate is Louise McDaid, their party's Scottish leader who contested the Glasgow North East by-election back in 2009 and stands as a perennial candidate in her local area. The All Scotland Pensioners Party (previously the Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party) is a minor party who previously had an MSP in the so-called "Rainbow Parliament" from 2003-07, whose primary focus is on campaigning for better pensions and greater rights for pensioners. That being said, neither of their candidates nor the independent (who I can't find anything about beyond the name) are likely to make an impact beyond possibly beating the Lib Dems into last.

As a typical Greater Glasgow seat, this one will be a battle between Labour and the SNP. Given the relatively narrow Labour lead on first preferences last time on top of recent SNP performances, it's likely to see an SNP gain as well. This could result in some pressure on the current Labour minority administration by reducing their plurality, but even an SNP gain is probably unlikely to result in a change of power so close to the all-out elections next year. KK

North Ayrshire Council
Lab	SNP	Ind	Con	LD		Vac
11	8	5	3	2		1
Saltcoats & Stevenston
By-Election Candidate					2007
Jim Montomerie (Lab)					34.8%
Nan Wallace (SNP)					32.0%
N/C (Ind)					25.6%
Chris Barr (Con)					7.6%
Gordon Bain (LD)					0.0%
Louise McDaid (SLP)					0.0%
Jimmy Miller (Pen)					0.0%
Gerard Pollock (Ind)					0.0%

Having already covered election related news in Derbyshire once this week we are back in the East Midlands County for a by-election. The vacancy in Shirebrook South West, Bolsover DC is due to the death of Independent Councillor Alan Waring. He won his seat by just one vote in 2007 in a straight fight with Labour but his re-election this May was a lot more comfortable.

In the absence of the evidently popular Independent Labour should easily win in a ward they had held unopposed previous to Waring's intervention. The Conservatives and the BNP did at least present voters with the option in May but they, along with the Green candidate, are unlikely to pose much of a threat to Labour.

Labour currently hold all but five of the other seats in Bolsover and the Greens, with their solitary Councillor, are the only other political party represented on the Council. The next all-out elections here are due to take place in 2015. TH

Shirebrook South West
By-Election Candidate	2011
N/C (Ind)	52.1%
Sandra Peake (Lab)	32.2%
Tom Key (BNP)	9.6%
Bob Newholm (Con)	6.1%
Ian Musgrove (Grn)	0.0%

SNP win ‘the most interesting council by-election EVER’!

Thursday's battle royale in Scotland's most marginal ward resulted in a nail-biting wait through five rounds of counting, culminating in an SNP hold after an early Tory lead.

As expected, the first preference votes created a tight race for the top with the Tories leading on first preference but no candidate achieving even half of the quota. The Tory, SNP, Labour and Green vote shares each varied slightly on the 2007 first preferences, but it was the Lib Dem vote that collapsed completely from 20% four years ago to 7% on Thursday. At a raw glance, this vote seems to have gone mostly to the anti-tram independent, but I expect the actual pattern to have been similar to recent by-elections across Scotland with Lib Dem voters switching to the SNP and Conservatives while Carson, based on his transfers, seems to have mostly pulled support from the Tories.

City Centre
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Iain McGill	837	24.2%	+4%
Alasdair Rankin (E)	797	23.1%	+2.6%
Karen Doran	682	19.7%	+1.7%
Melanie Main	494	14.3%	-2.7%
John Carson	394	11.4%	+11.4%
Alistair Hodgson	251	7.3%	-12.6%

Carson polled well for an independent candidate in Edinburgh, possibly a showing of the strength of feeling against the problems caused by mismanagement of the tram project, and overall a majority of first preferences was won between him and the anti-tram parties of the Conservatives and the SNP. However, with no change in administration forthcoming the tram project seems certain to carry on.

Predictably, the Lib Dem votes transferred strongly in favour of the Greens, but there were simply too few Lib Dem votes in the first place to push them ahead of Labour. Carson's votes transferred mostly to the Conservatives' benefit, building them a considerable lead over the SNP. However, the elimination of the Greens narrowed that gap considerably and the final elimination of the Labour candidate pushed the SNP into the lead to retain the seat.

		Stage
Candidate	1stP%	1	2			3			4			5
Iain McGill (Con)	24.2%	837	67	27%	904	139	35%	1043	67	11%	1110	154	16%	1264
Alasdair Rankin (SNP)	23.1%	797	28	11%	825	68	17%	893	188	30%	1081	287	30%	1368
Karen Doran (Lab)	19.7%	682	34	14%	716	29	7%	745	223	35%	968	-968
Melanie Main (Grn)	14.3%	494	82	33%	576	59	15%	635	-635
John Carson (Ind)	11.4%	394	8	3%	402	-402
Alistair Hodgson (LD)	7.3%	251	-251
No-Transfer			32	13%	32	107	27%	139	157	25%	296	527	54%	823

The biggest winner in this contest seems to have been apathy, with a 23% turnout which is very poor by Edinburgh standards for by-elections. As I noted earlier in the week though, the election was held at a very poor time with both students away on summer break and much of the ward occupied by the ongoing Fringe festival, both of which will have reduced turnout.

The Tories had a strong showing for most of the counts, but the most spectacular result has to be that of the Lib Dems, who lost nearly two thirds of their first preference share from 2007. Extrapolating this to next year's city wide council elections large losses seem very likely, possibly even reducing their council group to a rump from the party's strongholds in the western suburbs. Who exactly will gain those seats though looks uncertain. KK

City of Edinburgh Council
LD		Lab		SNP		Con		Grn
16	-	15	-	13	-	11	-	3	-

So, from that epic AV by-election we head south to Knowsley where a slightly less exciting contest took place. A seat in the Page Moss ward was vacated by Labour Councillor Tommy Russell, who had resigned for reasons unknown. As Labour had won here in May with the support of more than nine in ten voters the result was something of a foregone conclusion. True to form Dave Tulley held the seat for Labour, although he only managed a miserly 82.5% of the vote. That represented a swing of 6.2% to the Liberal Democrats since the election three months ago. Not bad until you consider they received only 57 votes, down from 100 in May.

The most interesting figure this by-election threw up is surely the turnout of just 12.9%; something small 'd' democrats will surely be horrified at. The Knowsley Council is dominated by Labour, who should enjoy similar margins of victory across the Metropolitan Borough in next year's partial elections. TH

Page Moss (Knowlsey)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Dave Tulley (E)	541	82.5%	-10.6%
Matt Hughes	57	8.7%	+1.8%
Sean Watson	22	3.4%	+3.4%
Marie Rea	21	3.2%	+3.2%
Robert Avery	15	2.3%	+2.3%

By-Election Preview (18th August)

There are two by-elections taking place, and in contrast to last week we are heading up north! Labour are looking to hold one of the safest wards in Knowsley but by far the more interesting contest is taking place in Edinburgh. The SNP are defending what is on paper a five way marginal, although the Liberal Democrats' recent electoral record in Scotland would suggest they aren't likely to gain this. However, the reports on the ground suggest the Independent is popular and so this AV election could be won by any of five candidates! Shame they aren't counting 'til the morning, eh?! I'll leave you with Kristofer Keane…

This week sees a by-election taking place in what must be the most marginal seat in the whole of Scotland, if not the whole UK.  In the 2007 local elections, Edinburgh's City Centre ward saw a vote share difference between 1st and 5th place of just 3.4% on first preferences.  Each of Scotland's four largest parties stood a single candidate, as did the Scottish Greens who took their second highest vote share in any Scottish ward here (after Glasgow Hillhead).  In the end, the SNP, Liberal Democrats and Conservatives each won a seat after the transfer of Labour and Green votes as well as smaller transfers from the SSP, the Liberal Party and an independent.

City of Edinburgh Council itself is run by a Lib Dem-SNP coalition who hold exactly half of the council seats, so there could potentially be an administration change here if neither of them win the seat, which was vacated by the SNP councillor David Beckett who is off to lecture at Harvard University in the USA.  However, it is unclear what an alternative administration would look like as the remaining seats lie with the unlikely allies of Labour, the Conservatives and the Greens.

The City Centre ward covers the Old Town, New Town, Haymarket and Abbeyhill districts of Edinburgh.  These prestigious areas include such sights as the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh City Chambers and Edinburgh Castle, as well as many of the Edinburgh Fringe Festival venues - something which has proven a contentious point to campaigners in this by-election as traditionally many residents here let their flats out to performers and tourists during the festival while going off to spend the month away from the city's hustle and bustle. Turnout therefore is likely to be very low, especially with the large student contingent still away on holidays as well.

The five major parties from last time are all standing again, but as if to just make this seat even more marginal, a populist independent standing on a scrap-the-trams platform is joining them.  The trams are a highly contentious issue in Edinburgh, and especially in the city centre where much of the traffic disruption has been caused.  The trams were originally supported by Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens, and were originally envisaged as a city-wide network stretching north, west and south from the city centre.  However, after a rejected congestion charge referendum, government spending cuts, and then a protracted legal dispute with the firm who won the council contract to build the tram infrastructure, the project has been massively scaled back while managing to run substantially over-time and over-budget.  Independent Carson could therefore very well pick up a decent protest vote.

The Lib Dems, although winning the first seat here in 2007 after Green transfers, are likely to fall back considerably due to their Westminster coalition as well as their responsibility in supporting and delivering the trams. Certainly a big fall would follow the pattern seen here in the Holyrood elections in May and across Scotland in recent by-elections.  The SNP, as junior administration partners, may get some flak over the trams although they have largely managed to be seen as opposing the trams from Holyrood while allowing them through at council level and so may have saved themselves on that one.  Based on recent elections, they would expect to increase their vote on 2007.

Labour are the largest opposition group on the council, but they failed to win a seat here in 2007. Their candidate also had an unfortunate fall while campaigning and ended up hospitalised with a broken ankle, impeding her campaigning.  The Conservative candidate is an experienced campaigner and given they hold the only opposition seat in this ward, they may be hoping to capitalise on protest votes as well.  The Greens meanwhile have been pulling in resources and campaigners from across the country to try to gain the seat, and may benefit from a large part of the voters switching from the Liberal Democrats.

One thing for sure is that no party will win this on first preferences, and transfers will probably determine the winner.  In this, the independent single-issue candidate is likely to do poorly, as well as the Conservatives who generally get poor transfer shares.  If the Liberal Democrats are eliminated early on, that should largely benefit the Greens and then the SNP.  At that point, if the Greens are eliminated before Labour, that could help push Labour on to victory while vice versa a Labour elimination would boost the Greens.  All in all, this one is far too close to call. KK

City of Edinburgh Council
LD	Lab	SNP	Con	Grn	Vac
16	15	12	11	3	1
City Centre
By-Election Candidate				2007
Alasdair Rankin (SNP)				20.4%
Iain McGill (Con)				20.2%
Alistair Hodgson (LD)				19.9%
Karen Doran (Lab)				18%
Melanie Main (Grn)				17%
N/C (SSP)				1.8%
N/C (Ind)				1.6%
N/C (Lib)				1%
John Carson (Ind)				-

On a scale of marginal wards in the United Kingdom Page Moss, Knowsley would on the complete opposite end to City Centre, Edinburgh. The Labour candidate in May enjoyed a majority of 82.6% over his Liberal Democrat opponent. Although magnitude of victory was exaggerated by the fact anger in Liverpool against the Lib Dems' decision to enter a national coalition with the Conservatives Labour have always enjoyed huge wins here. This vacancy has arisen following the resignation of Tommy Russell, for reasons unknown, and his win in 2008 was achieved with over three quarters of the vote. It's safe to say there won't be recount tonight!

Labour hold all but four seats on Knowsley Council with partial elections due to take place next year. TH

Page Moss (Knowlsey)
By-Election Candidate	2011	2010	2008
Dave Tulley (Lab)	93.1%	85%	78.7%
Matt Hughes (LD)	6.9%	15%	21.3%
Robert Avery (Con)	-	-	-
Marie Rea (Grn)	-	-	-
Sean Watson (Ind)	-	-	-

 

As the Edinburgh by-election result is likely to be quite interesting we are looking into the possibility of running a LiveBlog on the Friday Morning. We'll announce further details on tonight's LiveBlog, which is sure to be riveting. Who doesn't want to find out how high Labour's vote share can go?!