Lib Dems score only by-election gain of the night

In a somewhat surprising result last night the Liberal Democrats gained a seat from the Conservatives in Shropshire. This is in contrast to recent contests with the Tories where they have been uncompetitive as they struggle to stem the loss of votes to Labour. It's not all bad news for the Tories though as they won a vital seat in South Cambridgeshire and held off Labour in Brent.

It seems natural to start with the only gain of the night, which took place in Quarry & Coton Hill, Shropshire UA. The vacancy arose following the resignation of Conservative Councillor Maxwell Winchester, who is moving back to his county of birth - Australia. In 2009 the Liberal Democrat candidate Andrew Bannerman lost by just 73 votes but last night he won the race to replace Winchester. Bannerman managed an 8.8% swing to comfortably gain the seat for his party, despite Labour polling 23.1% from nowhere.

As good Labour results have usually come at the expense of the Lib Dems it's fair to say something is probably afoot locally. A quick flick through the Shropshire Star reveals a number of reports on Council spending cuts (H/T LordBonkers), and as the Council is dominated by the Conservatives they were in line to take the heat in this by-election. Of course, as part of the national coalition the Lib Dems are by no means blameless, but as Labour did not stand in the ward two years ago the yellows were best placed to capitalise on any local anger. The Tories are still very much in control of Shropshire with full Council elections not due until 2013.

Shropshire Council
CON		LD			LAB			IND
52	-1	13	+1		7	-		2		-
Quarry & Coton Hill
By-Election Candidate				Votes			Vote %		+/-
Andrew Bannerman (E)				356			41.8%		+5.7%
Judie McCoy				269			31.6%		-12.0%
John Lewis				197			23.1%		+23.1%
James Gollins				30			3.5%		-2.3%

The Conservatives did a better job defending the Bourn ward on the South Cambridgeshire District Council against the Liberal Democrats. The by-election was called because the incumbent Councillor David Morgan resigned to take a new job overseas. Although the Lib Dems required a smaller swing to take this than they did in Shropshire the Tories easily held the seat. It would seem that Clayton Hudson is a popular local figure and he increased his party's share of the vote by almost 11% from last May. The Liberal Democrats suffered a more typical drop in vote share, with their support heading to both Labour and the Tories. This result was important locally as this vacancy had wiped out the Conservative's majority on the South Cambridgeshire Council. Hudson's arrival will give them a one seat cushion until what are sure to be keenly fought partial elections in May.

South Cambrideshire District Council
CON		LD		IG			LAB			IND
29	-	20	-	6		-	1		-	1		-
Bourn (South Cambridgeshire)
By-Election Candidate					Votes			Vote %			+/-
Clayton Hudson (E)					874			56.2%			+10.9%
Nick Glynn					345			22.2%			-16.9%
Gavin Clayton					337			21.7%			+10.2%

Finally, the Conservatives successfully held off Labour to defend the Kenton ward in the London Borough of Brent. The vacancy arose due to the death of Conservative Councillor Arthur Steel, who was comfortably re-elected last May along with his two running mates. Labour required a 6% swing to take the seat which appeared well within their reach considering their recent results. It was not to be though as Suresh Kansagra limited the swing against the Tories to just 2.6% to win the seat by a 153 vote margin. This was despite the presence of a former Conservative Councillor standing as an Independent and the Liberal Democrats losing half their vote share. The smaller swing to Labour in this by-election is probably down to their strong performance in this ward last May and that they currently control Brent with a large majority. That said, this used to be a safe ward for the Tories so the fact this has become marginal should be pleasing for Labour.

Kenton (Brent)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Suresh Kansagra (E)	1063	44.1%	-2.2%
Ellie Southwood	907	37.7%	+3.0%
Robert Dunwell	185	7.7%	+7.7%
Chunilal Chavada	179	7.4%	-7.0%
Alan Mathison	75	3.1%	-1.5%

By-Election Preview (17th February)

There are three by-elections taking place this week and Conservatives are yet again defending them all. They won't be easy holds either as the vacancies are all in fairly marginal wards. Labour will be looking to take a seat of the Tories in Brent (London) whilst the Liberal Democrats seem best placed to worry them in Shropshire and South Cambridgeshire.

We'll start with the South Cambridgeshire DC by-election, which has the most at stake locally. The Bourn ward is up for grabs following the resignation of Conservative Councillor David Morgan, who has taken a new job overseas. The vacancy has left the controlling Tory group on the Council with exactly half the seats. Morgan was elected last year in a close fight with the Liberal Democrats and they will be looking for a 3.1% swing from last May to take the seat. However, Labour have been consistently increasing their vote share in by-elections at the Lib Dems' expense. If this is repeated in this contest it will help the Conservatives hold the seat. A win for the Tories would give them a one seat majority until the partial Council elections in 11 weeks time.

South Cambridgeshire District Council
CON	LD	IG	LAB		IND		VAC
28	20	6	1		1		1
Bourn
By-Election Candidate				2007		2008		2010
Clayton Hudson (CON)				44.1%		49.4%		45.3%
Nick Glynn (LD)				-		41.6%		39.1%
Gavin Clayton (LAB)				14.0%		9%		11.4%
N/C (UKIP)				-		-		4.2%
N/C (IND)				41.9%		-		-

The situation in Shropshire is very similar to that in Cambridgeshire. The Quarry & Coton Hill ward for the Unitary Authority is vacant following the resignation of Conservative Councillor Maxwell Winchester, who is moving back to his county of birth - Australia. The Liberal Democrats were only 73 votes behind the Tories in 2009 so they will be hoping for a gain in this by-election. They have kept their candidate from the last election and he will need a 3.8% swing from that result to take the seat. Labour didn't field a candidate in 2009 but they have for this by-election, whilst the Greens are absent despite a strong showing last time around. The Tories have a large majority in Shropshire so they can cope with a loss. As the Lib Dems have struggled recently in battles with the Tories we are likely to see a couple of holds in these contests.

Quarry & Coton Hill (Shropshire)
By-Election Candidate	2009
Judie McCoy (CON)	43.6%
Andrew Bannerman (LD)	36.1%
N/C (GRN)	14.4%
James Gollins (IND)	5.8%
John Lewis (LAB)	-

The final by-election today is taking place in the London Borough of Brent. The death of Conservative Councillor Arthur Steel has left a vacancy in the Kenton ward. Labour were the runners-up here last May and they require a 5.8% swing to gain the seat. A recent poll has shown a 7% swing to Labour from the Conservatives in London since the last General Election so this should be close, although the red's performance in this particular ward last May was already an improvement from 2006. The Tories will have to deal with one of their former Councillors standing against them as an Independent which could work in Labour's favour. If Labour do manage to take the seat they will add to their comfortable majority in Brent.

Kenton (Brent)
By-Election Candidate	2010
Suresh Kansagra (CON)	46.3%
Ellie Southwood (LAB)	34.7%
Chunilal Chavada (LD)	14.4%
Alan Mathison (GRN)	4.6%
Robert Dunwell (IND)	-

LibDems gain a seat, despite vote share dropping

The Liberal Democrats managed to gain a seat in Thursday's Council by-elections despite the fact their vote share dropped in all four contests. They held onto their seat in Solihull (West Midlands) and gained one from the Conservatives in Conwy (North Wales). Elsewhere the Tories comfortably held a ward in Kent, and Labour received 70% of the vote to hold their seat in Manchester.

I'll start in Solihull where the Liberal Democrats came very close to losing a seat in the Olton ward. The vacancy arose following the death of Cllr. Honor Cox, who won the seat in 2008 with just over half the vote. The Conservatives required a swing of 8.5% from May to take the seat and they fell agonisingly short. After two recounts Claire O'Kane held the seat for the Lib Dems by just 9 votes. In recent by-elections the Liberal Democrats have generally lost votes to Labour but in this instance the Tories directly benefited, along with a Residents Association candidate. Labour's vote share stood still which could be as a result of the Lib/Lab coalition in control of Solihull. The reds would have been unable to attract any local protest votes. The narrow victory for the Lib Dems should allow the Council coalition to limp on until May, when the Tories are posed to take control on this evidence.

Solihul Metropolitan Borough Council
CON		LD		LAB		ILD			GRN			IND			VAC
23	-	16	-	8	-	1	-		1	-		1	-		1	-
Olton
By-Election Candidate								Votes			Vote %			+/-
Claire O'Kane (E)								1188			39.7%			-11.0%
David Price								1179			39.4%			+5.7%
Andrew Mullinex								280			9.4%			+1.8%
Hayley Watts (RA)								228			7.6%			+6.3%
Ian Jamieson								115			3.8%			+1.5%

In Conwy there was a bizarre situation whereby the Liberal Democrats had a chance to gain a seat in the Marl ward even if their vote share dropped from the last election. The by-election had been called following the resignation of Conservative Councillor Linda Hurr due to heath reasons. Hurr was the runner up in the 2008 by-election behind the solitary Liberal Democrat candidate, so the Conservatives required a 14.1% swing just to hold the seat! Although the Tories did manage narrow the gap the Liberal Democrat candidate Susan Shotter won the vote fairly comfortably. The Lib Dems' vote share dropped by 10% but it was Labour, not the Tories, who benefited. The result gives the rainbow coalition in charge of Conwy an extra seat over the Conservative opposition group.

Conwy County Council
CON		PC		IND			LAB			LD
19	-1	14	-	14		-	7		-	5		+1
Marl
By-Election Candidate					Votes			Vote %			+/-
Susan Shotter (E)					389			40.4%			-10.1%
Julie Fallon					270			28.1%			+5.7%
Mike Pritchard					216			22.5%			+14.2%
Jason Landy					87			9.0%			-9.7%

The other two by-elections that took place on Thursday were notable for the collapse in the Liberal Democrat vote. The polls in Kent and Manchester both saw the Lib Dems' vote share drop significantly in wards they were runners-up at the last election. In Kent, the Tonbridge ward was vacant following the death of Cllr. Godfrey Horne, who topped the vote in 2009. There were no surprises this week as Alice Hohler easily held the seat for the Conservatives as their vote share rose by almost 10%. Eighteen months ago the Lib Dems won a tight battle for second place as Labour came fifth. However, on Thursday the reds saw their vote share increase by 12% to position themselves as the main challengers to the Tories here.

Tonbridge (Kent)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Alice Hohler (E)	3229	57.2%	+9.9%
Emily Williams	1216	21.5%	+12.2%
Garry Bridge	501	8.9%	-6.8%
Hazel Dawe	366	6.5%	-3.8%
David Waller	337	6.0%	-6.7%

If the Liberal Democrats were disappointed with third place in Kent then the Manchester result will not make good reading. The vacancy in the Baguley ward arose following the death of Cllr. Eddie McCulley. Labour were expected to hold the seat but they will be delighted that Tracy Rawlins was able to attract over 70% of the votes as she cruised to victory. Unsurprising for a North West by-election the bulk of Labour's increase was at the expense of the Lib Dems, whose vote share dropped by over 20% to just 3.7%. Although their May result in this ward was strong compared to recent years it's hard to spin this collapse. The Lib Dem vote share was less than half their 2007 result and they could only manage joint fourth with the BNP, and behind UKIP. In fact, they were only two votes away from slipping to sixth place behind the Greens. Although the yellows finished a Councillor up on Thursday night there is no escaping the scale of their defeat in Manchester. As things stand the Lib Dems are set to lose a lot of seats in the North West Metropolitan elections come May.

Baguley (Manchester)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Tracy Rawlins (E)	996	70.8%	+23.8%
Ralph Ellerton	160	11.4%	-4.8%
Christopher Cassidy	76	5.4%	-1.4%
Yvonne Donaghey	52	3.7%	-20.8%
Bernard Todd	52	3.7%	+3.7%
Mike Dagley	51	3.6%	+0.8%
Honor Donnelly	19	1.4%	+1.4%