Ask the Chancellors

With the recession as it is inevitably the economy has taken something of a first priority. As such Channel 4 showed a debate between the three candidates for Chancellor of the Exchequer last night: Alistair Darling, current Chancellor, George Osborne, Conservative Shadow Chancellor, and Vince Cable, Liberal Democrat Spokesman on the Treasury (it can be viewed here if you missed it). If you are expecting huge arguments then you are in for a disappointment, the proceedings were very dry, and not at all bombastic. In some senses this was to be expected. The Chancellorship is a position that people like to feel is in the hands of someone very serious, and hardworking. The position attracts quiet, intelligent men who project stability and competence. It attracts Gordon Browns; it does not attract Tony Blairs. The public generally prefers for the Chancellor to be someone who projects the stereotype of an accountant, rather than the salesmanship that is generally desired of a Prime Ministerial candidate. There was also a large degree of consensus on display between the three men. Cable, Darling and Osborne all agreed that a combination of spending cuts and tax rises was necessary; the question was where, when and how. Here is a summation of the three men's performance.

Alistair Darling

Hot off the heels of Wednesday's budget Darling's goal was clear: to defend his time in office and to create a narrative about Osborne's capabilities. Darling was clearly attempted to contrast himself with Osborne, declaring that he was taking a cautious, rational approach whereas Osborne's approach was 'dangerous'. As Darling's policies are mostly already known (the budget is a well publicised event) this freed him up to make attacks on Osborne. We were told that Labour was following the international consensus, and that it was trying to be fair, targeting tax rises at the rich. While Osborne attacked Darling back I feel Darling was largely able to repel his attacks.

George Osborne

Osborne somewhat pre-empted the debate with a new announcement: if the Conservatives win the election they will not implement Labour's planned increase in National Insurance for those earning less than 45k a year. Darling was quick to refer to the plan as too radical and dangerous. Osborne prioritised pushing himself as the candidate of 'change', but Darling's attacks were frequent and some unfortunately stuck. One accusation that seemed to work badly for Osborne was when he was accused of 'flip-flopping', for instance declaring himself in favour of a tax on bank profits, and being reminded that he'd only recently changed his mind on it. However Osborne largely succeeded in projecting himself as competent nonetheless.

Vince Cable

Cable seemed to remain largely above the fray. Neither Darling nor Osborne really seemed to attack him in any way. Maybe this is because he's been seen by many as a sort of prophet of the financial crisis and they viewed it as possible it could backfire on them. Perhaps it was because as the Liberal Democrat they simply did not see Cable as worth attacking, or they desired to see him squeezed out of the narrative. It is also true that the kind of attacks made on Osborne by Darling are not so easy on Cable as Liberal Democrat economics policy has been much more stable, consistent and clear than Conservative policy, and has also been fully costed making accusations of negligence difficult. Cable's priorities appeared to be to push his policies (especially his much vaunted plan to raise the personal allowance to ten thousand pounds) and to remind voters of his much vaunted 'prophet' status. In this he was largely successful to my mind.

All in all the debate was an entertaining, if dry, affair and an interesting preamble to the much anticipated prime ministerial debates.

Plymouth candidate confident the Lib Dems are on course

Stuart Bonar, the Liberal Democrat candidate for Plymouth Moor View, is confident that his party is in a good position at this stage of the election cycle. Although the Lib Dems have struggled to stay above 20% in the polls, Bonar points out there is still a long way to go.

"The Lib Dems have been consistently performing better in opinion polls than in previous years. All the exposure that the campaign and the prime ministerial debates will give us will also ensure that more people hear what we have to say.

"And when people hear what we stand for, our popularity goes up."

This is a point that I made last month, and I would have to agree that the Lib Dems are still looking good considering the disadvantages they face in the current two party system. Although some voters dismiss them because they are unlikely to win the election, they are the main challengers to the Conservatives in the South West. Bonar feels that they will still do well in the region despite the Tories' resurgence.

"I see people beginning to ask themselves: what will the Conservatives actually do? The Tories have no real vision for the country. They are offering little but a hollow message of change."

"People don't just want change. They want real change, and that is what the Lib Dems are offering nationally and locally."

As for his own chances, Bonar is hopeful that he will cause an upset in a city where the Lib Dems haven't been competitive in recent years.

"I am campaigning hard, and the response I am getting from local people is positive. The swing I need to win was achieved or exceeded in a quarter of all seats in 1997, so it's certainly winnable."

The swing Bonar requires is 12.8%. This would be very impressive as his party don't presently have any representatives on Plymouth City Council. Therefore, the Liberal Democrats need foundations to build upon in future elections and in the midst of this volatile election, Bonar will be hoping he can get his party's message heard in a city that has traditionally been a LAB/CON battleground.

UKIP Set Sights High in Plymouth Sutton & Devonport

UKIP have identified Plymouth as their #1 target in the General Election as Andrew Leigh aims to become the party’s first Member of Parliament. It may seem like little more than a pipe dream for the anti-European Union party to secure a seat under the First-Past-The-Post electoral system but Leigh certainly feels he has much to be positive about.

“In Plymouth UKIP topped the poll in the European Elections last June so this is most definitely the platform from which we will win our first seats”, declares Leigh. “West Country people are traditionally ‘non-conformist’; loyal to the country but sceptical of the way the main parties conduct themselves.” In fact UKIP polled more votes than Labour and the Liberal Democrats put together in Plymouth last year which would suggest the main parties would be foolish to dismiss Leigh as irrelevant.

The UKIP Candidate also rejects the notion that his votes will come mainly from disaffected Conservatives:

“We will almost certainly gain more Labour than Conservative voters in this election and a very large number from the Liberal Democrats. Most traditional Labour voters are patriotic and highly suspicious of the EU.

“Many South West Liberal Democrat voters do not support the party’s fanatical enthusiasm for the EU and are now seeing a better place to register their protests. We are a centre ground, Libertarian party concerned that our democracy is being eroded by unelected, foreign lawmakers in Brussels”

With this year’s election set to throw up more than a few surprises UKIP are sure to give their more established opponents a headache in the coming months. Leigh’s biggest obstacle is the electoral system but he is confident he can persuade the people of Plymouth to vote positively in May. He states, “We believe that we can win the seat. I wouldn’t be putting in so much effort if I believed differently!”

With the expenses scandal fresh in people’s minds I’m sure Leigh will secure a significant proportion of the vote on Election Day. Turning Plymouth ‘pink’ is perhaps a step too far but big changes in British politics are certainly on the cards. Minor parties are increasingly adapting to the current electoral system by targeting a small number of seats and I for one will not be surprised if we see a few historic gains this year. So even without electoral reform, by the end of the decade we could see pockets of the country taken over by minor parties and the South West is primed for a UKIP advance. Andrew Leigh is hoping electorate of Plymouth Sutton & Devonport are already prepared to send shockwaves through British politics and return the first member of UKIP to Parliament.

Liberal Democrats Hope One Becomes Two

Matthew Taylor’s (LD) constituency Truro & St. Austell has been split into two by the boundary commission. Terrye Teverson and Stephen Gilbert are hoping they can secure both these new seats for the Liberal Democrats in an area that has returned a Liberal MP every election since 1974. Gilbert is running in St. Austell & Newquay and he’s encouraged by the recent Council election results in the area.

“We did very well in the unitary elections in June electing 10 Lib Dem Cornwall Councillors to 7 Conservatives. Towards the end of the year we also won by-elections in Newquay and in St Austell. Labour had no candidate in the Newquay by-election and in St Austell polled less than 5% of the vote - clearly the Labour Party is out of the race. Overall, the St Austell by-election took the Cornwall Councillor numbers to 11 Lib Dems, 6 Conservatives (plus 5 independents and 1 MK).”

Gilbert’s notional majority is very awkward to calculate due to the success of independent candidates in the local elections. Figures range from 600 to 6000 votes making any prediction on the seat extremely difficult. Gilbert, naturally, disagrees with my inclining that the Conservatives will pick up this seat but that is based on the assumption that the Tories would strongly target this seat. This contest is one of the most intriguing in the local area and is we’ll certainly be keeping a close eye on it. As the Lib Dem PPC states himself, “I have no doubt that the St Austell & Newquay seat will be a keenly fought contest”.

A bit further west Terrye Teverson is contesting Truro & Falmouth. She is also confident of winning and feels that her ties to the local area and the tradition of Liberal MPs in Cornwall will see her elected to Parliament.

“I have an excellent chance of winning Truro and Falmouth and am tipped to win. My 20 years of personal campaigning in Cornwall will also help. The Liberal Democrats have a strong following in the SW due to the MP’s that are elected working hard all year round. Even David Cameron acknowledged that Liberal Democrats made ‘good local MP’s’”

I’d have to admit I wouldn’t bet against the Lib Dems taking both these seats which would be an excellent result for the third party. Regardless of what the polling figures are currently 2010 is going to be a Conservative year and so if the Liberal Democrats to hold many of their rural seats in this environment they are sure to play a significant role in the next Parliament.

Conservatives Aware of UKIP Challenge

In 2009 European Elections UKIP beat both Labour and the Liberal Democrats to second place, securing two MEPs in the process. It’s often assumed that UKIP voters are Conservatives unhappy with their party’s stance on Europe and so their strength in the region is cause for concern to local Tory candidates. Given the national situation between the main parties it’s not surprising that the Conservative candidate George Eustice is confident of becoming the next MP for Camborne and Redruth. But as a former UKIP candidate himself Eusitce is aware of the need to win these voters over

Eustice feels that a vote for him is the sensible choice for euro-sceptics at a General Election. “My sense is that many people who voted UKIP in the euro elections will support me in the General Election because to support UKIP is to reward the very Lib Dem MP who refused to vote in favour of a referendum on the EU constitution when it was debated in parliament.”

In fact, all Liberal Democrat MPs in Cornwall followed their leadership’s direction to abstain from the referendum vote. With the EU such a contentious issue in this part of the country it will be interesting to see if this will have any affect two years on. Derek Thomas, the Conservative candidate in St. Ives, shares Eustice’s view that euro-sceptics should vote Tory.

“UKIP voters will need to choose their own priorities, a change in Government at a time when our finances are in disarray or an isolated position on Europe from a place where they can not possible change things.” Thomas feels other issues, such as housing and transport, will be more important to the voters in St. Ives and intends to focus on these rather than Europe.

The EU is unlikely to become a major national issue as David Cameron does not want the ideological splits within the party to be on display during the campaign. Locally, however, they may need to win over UKIP voters in order to secure victory in these close contests and how the Conservatives deal with this could be the difference between success and failure.

Labour Candidate Optimistic

Despite Labour's current plight nationally Jude Robinson feels she has a good chance of winning back the Camborne and Redruth seat they lost at the last General Election. Although many seeing her challenge as a long shot, Ladbrokes are offering 33/1 on a Labour win here, Robinson believes there are many reasons to be optimistic. Labour do not have much of a foothold in the South West and this constituency represents their best chance of a gaining a seat in the region.

Robinson describes the seat as "a genuine 3 way marginal seat, one of very few in the country and it is also the area of Cornwall with a strong Labour core vote". She feels the boundary changes and the actions of the incumbent Lib Dem MP are to her advantage. "The anti Tory vote in Hayle went to Andrew George from 1997 onwards and he has a strong personal vote there, rather than a Lib Dem loyalty. Julia Goldsworthy is one of the MPs whose behaviour over expenses has appeared greedy and self serving."

The Liberal Democrats have been the main party in Cornwall during the last decade and had control of the County Council up until last year. But the Lib Dems were instrumental in the recent restructuring of the local government which has proved unpopular and Robinson feels this will harm them in the General Election.

"The Lib Dems hold all the seats in Cornwall and promised much in 2005, which they have not delivered. There is a mood on the doorstep that is quite fed up of their incompetence, lack of responsibility and accountability - particularly over the Unitary process and transition."

Although the Conservatives were the main beneficiaries in the 2009 local elections the demographics of this constituency may well aid a Labour challenge. There is enough in this part of Cornwall to suggest it's not a lost cause for Robinson but it will be seen as some achievement if she manages to gain a seat for Labour in this election.

Local Candidates

Britain-Votes.co.uk have been asking local PPCs how they view their chances in the forthcoming General Election. Naturally they are busy people and so we are thankful for those who spared the time to get back to us. As Parliament is still sitting the incumbent MP’s were unable to respond but we hope to try again when the election is called. In the meantime we’ll be running with what we’ve got starting with the candidates in Cornwall tomorrow.