A Look @: West Scotland (Part III)

This post looks at the List seats in the region. To find the constituency seats in the centre of the region click here, and the east and west here.

Here is the notional 2007 result for this regional list:

Party	Const. Seats	Region Votes	Region Votes %	Add. Members	Total Members
Labour	8	101546	34.6%	0	8
SNP	1	83867	28.5%	4	5
Conservative	1	43324	14.7%	2	3
Lib. Dem.	0	23965	8.2%	1	1
Green	0	8700	3%	0	0
Senior Citizen	2.0%	SLP			0.6%
Solidarity	1.8%	Scottish Unionist			0.5%
Christian Party	1.4%	UKIP			0.3%
BNP	1.2%	Scottish Voice			0.2%
Christian Peoples	1.1%	Jacobite Party			0.2%
Save NHS	1%	Socialist Equality Party			0.05%
Socialist Party	0.6%
Additional Members
1. Stewart Maxwell			2. Gil Paterson
3. Ross Finnie			4. Annabel Goldie
5. Bill Wilson			6. Stuart McMillan
7. Jackson Carlaw

As you can see the allocation of the regional seats were relatively unchanged by the boundary review despite the fact one of the constituencies has notionally changed hands. This is because that constituency has gone from Labour to the Conservatives and as that still leaves Labour with eight constituencies they are over represented in this region. The notional gain for the Conservatives does mean their second list seat is more vulnerable than it was in 2007.

In the constituency posts I tried to keep the number of seats in the Too Close column to a minimum as polls open in less than 24 hours. Still, I couldn't bring myself to call two of them and so this post will investigate how they could affect the eventual make-up of the Scottish Parliament. The two constituencies I felt were too tight are Eastwood and Cunninghame South. Among the more controversial calls is Dumbarton, which I've popped in the SNP column as a gain from Labour. It's a shame there isn't more time to canvass opinion of these seats but unfortunately our tight timetable was pushed off schedule last week and we'll have to go with what we have.

Eastwood is the notional gain for the Conservatives that is alluded to above. The sitting Labour MSP has the unenviable task of overturning a 3500 vote notional majority to keep his job but on recent polling that is possible. In Cunninghame South the SNP require a 4.7% swing to gain the seat from Labour but as this is a relatively small constituency and within reach on current Uniform Swing projections so it is very much in play. I'll go through the scenarios from a good night for Labour to a bad one.

As mentioned before we are averaging the regional voting intentions from recent polls by what we regard as established companies. This post is based on the Mori and YouGov polls from 21^st April. The final forecast will recalculate these seats based on the final polling expected to be released today.

So, if Labour win both constituencies then how would the regional seats break:

Party	Const. Seats	U-Swing	Regional Members	Total Members
Labour	8	35.9	0	8
SNP	2	38.0	4	6
Conservatives	0	11.8	2	2
Lib. Dems.	0	4.4	0	0
Greens	0	5.9	1	1

Seat 1: Stewart Maxwell (SNP), Seat 2: Annabel Goldie (CON), Seat 3: Derek Mackay (SNP), Seat 4: Gil Paterson (SNP), Seat 5: Fiona McLeod (SNP), Seat 6: Jackson Carlaw (CON), Seat 7: Steen Parish (GRN).

In this scenario the first seat would go to the SNP and so their lead candidate Stewart Maxwell would take the first seat and thus win a third term in the Scottish Parliament. Maxwell was their lead candidate in the 2007 election as well. The Scottish Conservative leader Annabel Goldie would win the second seat and secure a fourth term at Holyrood. The third seat is allocated to the SNP but we have assumed their #2 candidate Kenneth Gibson will hold his Cunninghame North constituency Derek Mackay takes the seat. The leader of Renfrewshire Council is a new addition to the Nationalist's list this year and the 33 year old is thought of highly within the party. Even if Gibson loses his constituency seat at number three on the SNP regional list Mackay is very likely to win a seat in Parliament.

The SNP continue to pick up regional seats under this scenario and Gil Paterson is next in line. I don't think he'll be able to gain the Clydebank & Milngavie constituency for his party but Paterson looks set to win a second term as a regional MSP, despite falling two places in the list. The fifth seat would also go to the SNP and Fiona McLeod, who has moved up a place in the SNP list from 2007, would enter the Scottish Parliament. She is also contesting the Stathkelvin & Bearsden constituency, but it won't be an easy task to defeat the Labour incumbent there.

Finally we come to a potential winner from another party as the sixth seat in this scenario goes to the Conservative's #2 candidate Jackson Carlaw. He was first elected as a West of Scotland regional MSP in 2007 and although his party seem to have lost ground since then he should hang on to his seat. The really big news on the West Scotland list is that on current polling the Greens are on course to pick up a seat from the Liberal Democrats. In fact, on the Britain-Votes seat calculator there is nothing between them and the Conservatives in the race for the sixth seat. The Greens' lead candidate is Steen Parish and he'll be hoping his party can maintain its momentum and keep ahead of the Liberal Democrats.

With Labour winning far too many constituencies to compete for the regional seats and the Liberal Democrats vote share falling so low the final seat is actually quite comfortable for the Greens. They take it well ahead of the SNPs #6 candidate Stuart McMillan, who is a current MSP for the region. The sole Liberal Democrats MSP for the West of Scotland Ross Finnie is still their lead candidate but he will need a sharp upturn in his party's fortunes if he is to win re-election. The other current MSP who would not win under this scenario is the SNP's Bill Wilson, who has opted to stand on the Lothians list instead.

So, what happens of the SNP gain Cunninghame South and Labour win Eastwood?

Party	Const. Seats	U-Swing	Regional Members	Total Members
Labour	7	35.9	0	7
SNP	3	38.0	4	7
Conservatives	0	11.8	2	2
Lib. Dems.	0	4.4	0	0
Greens	0	5.9	1	1

Seat 1: Annabel Goldie (CON), Seat 2: Stewart Maxwell (SNP), Seat 3: Derek Mackay (SNP), Seat 4: Gil Paterson (SNP), Seat 5: Jackson Carlaw (CON), Seat 6: Steen Parish (GRN), Seat 7: Fiona McLeod (SNP).

The simple answer is pretty much the same as above. The order is a bit different but the same seven would head to Holyrood as the West Scotland regional MSPs. Of course, the big difference to the shape of the Parliament is that the SNP would score a tangible gain over Labour as their success in the constituency does not lose them a seat in the regional list.

Then there is the scenario where the Conservatives win Eastwood but Labour hold off the SNP in Cunninghame South:

Party	Const. Seats	U-Swing	Regional Members	Total Members
Labour	7	35.9	0	7
SNP	2	38.0	5	7
Conservatives	1	11.8	1	2
Lib. Dems.	0	4.4	0	0
Greens	0	5.9	1	1

Seat 1: Stewart Maxwell (SNP), Seat 2: Derek Mackay (SNP), Seat 3: Gil Paterson (SNP), Seat 4: Fiona McLeod (SNP), Seat 5: Annabel Goldie (CON), Seat 6: Steen Parish (GRN), Seat 7: Stuart McMillan (SNP).

Under this scenario the vote share currently projected for the SNP would still net them seven seats. The constituency gain for the Conservatives wouldn't be reflected in the total seats as they then lose a regional seat to the SNP. Therefore the Conservative MSP Jackson Carlaw will lose his seat but the SNP's Stuart McMillan sneaks back into Parliament. Labour are his closest challengers for the final seat and so their lead candidate Mary Fee would be in with a shout. In truth it is relatively comfortable on the above figures and they could cope with a 3% swing away from them.

Finally, how would the regional seats get allocated if Labour have a poor night and lose the two tight constituencies?

Party	Const. Seats	U-Swing	Regional Members	Total Members
Labour	6	35.9	1	7
SNP	3	38.0	4	7
Conservatives	1	11.8	1	2
Lib. Dems.	0	4.4	0	0
Greens	0	5.9	1	1

Seat 1: Stewart Maxwell (SNP), Seat 2: Derek Mackay (SNP), Seat 3: Gil Paterson (SNP), Seat 4: Annabel Goldie (CON), Seat 5: Steen Parish (GRN), Seat 6: Fiona McLeod (SNP), Seat 7: Mary Fee (LAB).

As you can see a further constituency loss for Labour is clawed back on the list as Mary Fee wins a regional seat at Jackson Carlaw's or Stuart McMillan's expense, depending on which way you look at it! The SNP would win the final seat on a 2% LAB>SNP swing on those figures but the Tories would have to do a lot better to take it. Essentially, if the Conservatives only poll around 12% on the regional vote then they are not going to be able to take more than two seats in total.

As for the SNP, if they manage to win one of their longer shots in the constituencies then they wouldn't really benefit overall. Strathkelvin & Bearsden and Clydebank & Milngavie are the possibilities but they would have to win both to win another overall seat at Labour's expense. As for the list personnel, Fiona McLeod and Gil Paterson are their respective candidates in those constituencies so they both have a good chance of heading to Holyrood either way. One thing is for sure, if Alex Salmond is going to get close to that coveted majority then his party will have taken a chunk out of Labour in this region.

A Look @: West Scotland (Part II)

This post covers the constituencies in the East and West of the Region, including the North Ayrshire, East Dunbartonshire, West Dunbartonshire and a bit of Argyll & Bute. The Central seats can be found here, and the regional discussion here.

Constituency	MSP	Majority	Swing Required	First Elected	B-V.co.uk
Cunninghame North	Kenneth Gibson	40	0.1%	2007	Lean SNP
Cunninghame South	Irene Oldfather	2160	4.7%	1999	Too Close
Strathkelvin & Bearsden	David Whitton	3583	5.1%	2007	LAB Lean
Clydebank & Milngavie	Des McNulty	3158	5.4%	1999	LAB Lean
Dumbarton	Jackie Baillie	1587	2.7%	1999	Lean SNP

The Cunninghame North seat is a key LAB/SNP marginal that could determine who ends up as the largest party. Before the campaign the Scottish Nationalist MSP Kenneth Gibson looked very vulnerable and can't have fancied his chances of retaining this constituency. He gained this seat in 2007 by defeating the incumbent Labour MSP on a 6% swing, securing a majority of just 48. The boundary changes have reduced that very slightly to 40 but the surge in support for the SNP during the campaign has shifted this contest firmly in Gibson's favour. With less than 48 hours left until polling stations open Labour do not look good value here.

Labour have kept faith with their losing candidate from 2007 Allan Wilson, who held the seat during the first two Parliaments. Following his defeat in 2007 Wilson considered legally challenging the result as there were over 1000 spoiled ballot papers, but after taking legal advice Labour decided not to pursue legal proceedings. More recently this seat has been at the centre of bizarre meeting between the SNP and Scottish Labour leaders. Last week Alex Salmond was campaigning in a local Asda store when the Iain Gray popped in to 'pick up some provisions.' The issue of who ran away from whom is sure to be a key issue locally in the last days of campaigning…! In truth, the SNP's lead in national polls should keep this seat out of Labour's reach.

Irene Oldfather has represented the Cunninghame South constituency since 1999 but this election is sure to be her toughest yet. Defending a notional majority of 2160 votes recent polling would suggest that this is within the SNP's reach. The Scottish Nationalists have selected Margaret Burgess as their candidate, who has led their Council group in North Ayrshire. Oldfather is the bookies favourite, but not by much, and there isn't anything to suggest that this seat will not follow the national swing. We'll wait until the final polls to call this one; either way it looks like it will be close.

On paper the Stathkelvin & Bearsden constituency is as marginal as the Cunninghame South seat just discussed. However, aside from the fact the seat is the other side of the region there are key differences. Firstly, the current Labour MSP David Whitton gained the seat for his party at the last election and, in general, first term incumbents get a boost as they build up a personal vote within the constituency. More importantly this seat has a much more interested electoral history than most.

The constituency was easily won by Labour in 1999 but the MSP Sam Galbraith resigned two years later due to ill health. Enter Dr. Jane Turner, who contested the by-election as an Independent in protest against plans to cut services at a local hospital. Turner came second behind Labour with 18% of the vote but this failure did not deter the GP. She stood again at the full Parliament elections in 2003 and scored a sensational victory, defeating the incumbent MSP. However, Turner slipped to third in 2007 as Whitton took the seat back for Labour and she is not contesting this election. Turner still received 18% of the vote four years ago so where this falls on Thursday could have a huge impact on the result.

Looking at the previous results Turner took votes from all of the major political parties, but it was Labour who suffered the most from her candidature. Bizarrely, in 2007 Labour barely increased on their vote share from the previous election. Their victory was largely as a result of Turner's voters returning from other political parties heading back and Whitton won with just 31% of the vote. It is therefore quite possible that the bulk of Turner's remaining supporters were ex-Labour voters and so Whitton could be in a better starting position than the notional figures suggest. Still, if this is true they are, by definition, soft supporters and with the SNP surging in the polls their candidate Fiona McLeod, who was a West of Scotland regional MSP during the first Parliament, must fancy her chances. Having said that, I think this is a much tougher seat for the SNP to take than Cunninghame South and Labour should do enough to hold on.

Des McNulty is yet another Labour incumbent who will not have enjoyed the recent Scottish Polling as Uniform Swing calculations bring the Scottish Nationalists very close in his Clydebank & Milngavie seat. He has been an MSP since 1999 and he is currently Scottish Labour's Shadow Education Minister. The seat is split between the East and West Dunbartonshire Council areas and Labour have a slight edge at local level. The SNP have selected their regional MSP Gil Paterson to contest this seat and he is almost certainly going to close the gap to Labour. But as the SNP have far better targets locally I think Labour should hold on here. The bookies regard McNulty as a strong favourite so there could be a few quid available for anyone who has strong reasons to think otherwise!

The final constituency seat to look at in West Scotland is Dumbarton and it represents the best chance for a Scottish Nationalist gain. It is more rural than the previous two seats and they are starting with a smaller notional deficit of just over 1500 votes. The Labour incumbent Jackie Baillie has been the MSP here since the Parliament was formed and she is very much in the SNP's firing line. They have selected local Councillor Iain Robertson to challenge Baillie in what the current odds suggest is virtually a dead heat. As only one poll in the last four weeks would see Labour holding this seat on UNS I think the SNP have a very good chance of gaining this.

A Look @: Scotland West (Part I)

This post covers the constituencies in the central area of this region, contain within the East Renfrewshire, Inverclyde and Renfrewshire Council Areas. To find the other five constituencies click here, and to find the regional discussion click here.

Constituency	MSP	Majority	Swing Required		First Elected	B-V.co.uk
Eastwood	Kenneth MacIntosh	-3488	5.6%		1999	Too Close
Greenock & Inverclyde	Duncan McNeil	4517	7.9%		1999	LAB Safe
Paisley	Wendy Alexander	3811	7.4%		1999	LAB Lean
Renfrewshire North & West	Trish Godman	3105	5.6%	8.9%	1999	LAB Lean
Renfrewshire South	Hugh Henry	5936	10.3%		1999	LAB Safe

As with any boundary review there are a number of incumbents who face uphill tasks just to hold their seat and in this election Labour's Kenneth MacIntosh is a strong candidate for the most hard-done-by MSP. He held on to his Eastwood seat in 2007 with a majority of 891 but the constituency has been is vastly altered for this election. As the seat had the third biggest electorate in Scotland at the last election it has lost its northern areas, including Neilston and Uplawmoor parts of the Neilston, Uplawmoor & Newton Mearns North ward along with the Barrhead ward, to the Renfrewshire South constituency. As these were Labour leaning the notional result leaves a 3500 deficit for MacIntosh to overcome if he is to remain an MSP.

The Conservatives are the main beneficiaries from the boundary changes and their candidate Jackson Carlaw has an excellent chance of winning this seat. Carlaw contested this constituency in 2007 and although he lost his placement as the second candidate on the regional list saw him enter the Scottish Parliament for the first time. On uniform swing from the most recent polls Labour fall short here but MacIntosh should get a little incumbency bonus. Whether it will be enough to save his seat remains to be seen; this will be a tight one.

A few weeks ago Duncan McNeil looked safe as houses to hang onto his Greenock & Inverclyde seat, which now covers most of the Inverclyde Council area. Defending a 4500 vote majority should be pretty easy for a Labour incumbent this year but the surge in support for the Scottish Nationalists during the campaign has turned this election on its head. The SNP have selected one of their West of Scotland MSPs Stuart McMillan to contest this constituency for the second time. McMillan increased his party's vote share by an impressive 15% in 2007 to position the SNP as the main challenge to Labour here but I think it will be a tough ask to repeat that again this year. Although a UNS calculation would bring the SNP quite close the fact Labour have an incumbent to rally around in what wasn't regarded as a target seat before the campaign started should keep this constituency red.

In a parallel universe Wendy Alexander would be on the verge of becoming Scottish First Minister this week. When she replaced Jack McConnell as Leader of Scottish Labour in 2007 that would certainly have been the aim as she looked to make her party's time in opposition as brief as possible. Sadly her short stint in charge of her party was dogged by controversy surrounding donations she had received for the non-existent leadership campaign. Barely 10 months in the job Alexander resigned claiming the 'vexatious' campaign from her political opponents would be a continued distraction for Scottish Labour.

Alexander seemed set to defend the Paisley seat for her party but at the start of February she announced her decision to stand down, citing family reasons. Evan Williams has been selected the new candidate here and he is defending a fairly comfortable majority. This area has been completely redrawn as party of this boundary review and this Paisley seat has been constructed using the four wards that cover the town, which had been previously split between the Paisley North and Paisley South constituencies. The MSP for the former, Hugh Henry, is to defend the Renfrewshire South seat discussed below.

The Scottish Nationalists are notionally in second place and they have selected local Councillor George Adam, who contested the Paisley North seat in 2003, as their candidate. Recent polling has brought this seat into play somewhat and with the seat open the SNP might fancy scoring a surprise gain here. In truth it is probably out of reach for the Nationalists and Williams will hold it for Labour, albeit not quite as well as Alexander would have.

Nominally the Renfrewshire North & West constituency is the successor to the Renfrewshire West seat held by Labour's Trish Godman for the first three Parliaments but there are major changes as a result of the boundary review. The new constituency picks up Renfrew North and Renfrew South & Gallowhill from the old Paisley North seat and then covers the northern part of the Renfrewshire Council area. The old Renfrewshire West constituency did contain some wards from Inverclyde but aside from part of the Inverclyde East ward they are now mostly in the Greenbank & Inverclyde seat.

At 71 Godman did not seek her parties selection to defend the new constituency and so Labour have opted for local Teacher Stuart Clark to contest this election. He is starting in a strong position, although the recent surge in support for the SNP may be giving Clark the jitters. Under UNS the Scottish Nationalist candidate Derek MacKay would run this very close and he is currently the leader of the Renfrewshire Council so should be be well known locally. A major problem for MacKay is that the Conservative candidate is their Leader in the Scottish Parliament Annabel Goldie and so there is potential for the anti-Labour vote to be split. Clark should hold on but if the polling is accurate this could be quite a lot tighter than he would like.

Hugh Henry has been the MSP for the Paisley South constituency for three terms but the Renfrewshire South seat he is hoping to win this Thursday is significantly different to his old one. Henry has only represented a small part of the new constituency, which covers the southern wards of the Renfrewshire Council area, minus Paisley, and the northern part of the East Renfrewshire Council area. Luckily for Henry Labour have a big notional majority here so the fact he is campaigning in a virtually new seat shouldn't harm his chances. The SNP are second notionally and they have selected Andrew Doig as their candidate. This isn't the first time Doig has fought a constituency campaign having come second in Paisley North in 2007 and then again in Paisley & Renfrewshire South at last year's General Election. He is likely to come second again on Thursday as Henry should secure a fourth term in Parliament.