By-Election Preview (25th August)

Like last week there are two by-elections on Thursday; one in Scotland and one in England. Kristofer Keane will take you through Labour's chances of holding a seat in North Ayrshire whilst Tom Harris looks at who will replace a long standing Independent in Bolsover (Derbyshire).

This week's Scottish by-election comes from the Clyde coastal towns of Saltcoats and Stevenston on North Ayrshire Council, after the resignation of Labour councillor David Munn.

This four-member ward elected two Labour councillors, one SNP and one independent last time around, although in terms of the first preference vote share Labour and the SNP were pretty close with an independent candidate also winning a fair chunk of the vote.

There's a fair plethora of candidates standing in this one too. In addition to the big four (including the Lib Dems who didn't stand here in 2007), there are also representatives from the Socialist Labour Party, the All Scotland Pensioners Party, as well as a new independent candidate.

The Socialist Labour candidate is Louise McDaid, their party's Scottish leader who contested the Glasgow North East by-election back in 2009 and stands as a perennial candidate in her local area. The All Scotland Pensioners Party (previously the Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party) is a minor party who previously had an MSP in the so-called "Rainbow Parliament" from 2003-07, whose primary focus is on campaigning for better pensions and greater rights for pensioners. That being said, neither of their candidates nor the independent (who I can't find anything about beyond the name) are likely to make an impact beyond possibly beating the Lib Dems into last.

As a typical Greater Glasgow seat, this one will be a battle between Labour and the SNP. Given the relatively narrow Labour lead on first preferences last time on top of recent SNP performances, it's likely to see an SNP gain as well. This could result in some pressure on the current Labour minority administration by reducing their plurality, but even an SNP gain is probably unlikely to result in a change of power so close to the all-out elections next year. KK

North Ayrshire Council
Lab	SNP	Ind	Con	LD		Vac
11	8	5	3	2		1
Saltcoats & Stevenston
By-Election Candidate					2007
Jim Montomerie (Lab)					34.8%
Nan Wallace (SNP)					32.0%
N/C (Ind)					25.6%
Chris Barr (Con)					7.6%
Gordon Bain (LD)					0.0%
Louise McDaid (SLP)					0.0%
Jimmy Miller (Pen)					0.0%
Gerard Pollock (Ind)					0.0%

Having already covered election related news in Derbyshire once this week we are back in the East Midlands County for a by-election. The vacancy in Shirebrook South West, Bolsover DC is due to the death of Independent Councillor Alan Waring. He won his seat by just one vote in 2007 in a straight fight with Labour but his re-election this May was a lot more comfortable.

In the absence of the evidently popular Independent Labour should easily win in a ward they had held unopposed previous to Waring's intervention. The Conservatives and the BNP did at least present voters with the option in May but they, along with the Green candidate, are unlikely to pose much of a threat to Labour.

Labour currently hold all but five of the other seats in Bolsover and the Greens, with their solitary Councillor, are the only other political party represented on the Council. The next all-out elections here are due to take place in 2015. TH

Shirebrook South West
By-Election Candidate	2011
N/C (Ind)	52.1%
Sandra Peake (Lab)	32.2%
Tom Key (BNP)	9.6%
Bob Newholm (Con)	6.1%
Ian Musgrove (Grn)	0.0%

Thameslink decision hurting coalition in Derby

A new poll from Survation shows that support for the coalition in Derby has derailed following Bombardiers' failure to secure the coveted Thameslink contract.

The six billion pound contract to build 1,200 new carriages was awarded to a consortium headed by the German firm Siemens. The decision has sparked outrage in the area with many people questioning the government's commitment to British industry and British jobs.

The survey found that 97% of people interviewed in Derby were aware of the Thameslink contract. More concerning for the government was the fact the 87% of people felt that the government did not act in the interests of Britain when awarding the contract to Siemens. It was also found that many people in Derby felt that the government has no loyalty to Derby, no commitment to British industry and that they were 'out of touch' with working class people.

The government has already faced pressure from Unite and opposition politicians to review the decision but Transport Secretary Phillip Hammond has already ruled this out. Bombardier's Derby site is the UK's last remaining train factory, currently employing 3,000 staff. However with several contracts nearing their end and the Thameslink deal going elsewhere the firm looks set to half its workforce. According to the Conservative leader of Derby Council, it has been estimated that the loss of the contract could cost the local economy as much as £200 million.

With this in mind it is not surprising that support for the government is waning in two key marginals in the area. According to the poll, Labour have benefitted in both the Derby North and the Derbyshire South constituencies, with both coalition partners suffering.

Derby North was a three way marginal in 2010 which Labour narrowly won but the fallout from the Thameslink contract would see them easily holding this at the moment. The 13.4% swing is far more than current national polling would suggest, although in this constituency the major collapse of the Liberal Democrat vote is clearly helping Labour.

Derby North
	2010	Poll	+/-
Labour	33.0%	51.1%	+18.1%
Conservatives	31.7%	23.0%	-8.7%
Liberal Democrats	28.0%	10.7%	-17.3%
BNP	4.4%	9.5%	+5.1%
UKIP	1.8%	2.1%	+0.3%
Others	1.0%	3.8%	+2.8%

In Derbyshire South the swing is more direct between Labour and the Conservatives but it's still staggering. The poll suggests that there has been a Con>Lab swing of 14.1%, which would see Labour comfortably reclaim the seat having lost it to the Tories at the last General Election.

Derbyshire South
	2010	Poll	+/-
Labour	31.4%	45.9%	+14.5%
Conservatives	45.5%	31.9%	-13.6%
Liberal Democrats	15.9%	9.1%	-6.8%
BNP	4.3%	1.3%	-3.0%
UKIP	2.4%	0.1%	-2.3%
Others	0.5%	11.8%	+11.3%

Though it is clear to see that Labour have gained a good share of the coalition vote the poll also suggests that, in North Derby at least, the BNP have also seen an increase in support. Although this is not mirrored in Derbyshire South responses for 'Another Party' are included in 'Other' figure and could be evidence of a 'shy' BNP vote in the more rural of the two constituencies.

Something we can be sure of is that confidence in the Government within the Derby area has suffered as a result of the Thameslink decision. It will be interesting to see whether the Government sticks to its guns or whether they decide to review the contract.

Kayleigh Lewis

Labour enjoy crushing victory in Bassetlaw

Last night, Labour continued their strong performances in Council by-elections as they received almost three quarters of the vote to gain a seat from the Conservatives in Bassetlaw (Nottinghamshire). The Tories themselves held two (yes, two…we'll come to that in a minute!) seats in Kent with the reds snatching second place in both contests.

We'll start in Bassetlaw, where the Worksop North East ward was vacant following the disqualification of Conservative Councillor Bill Graham for non-attendance. Graham narrowly held his seat in 2008 in a straight battle with Labour, but the reds hold the other two seats in this multi-member ward. Last May, Labour won here comfortably and if the Tories were to hold this seat yesterday they would have required a 20% swing towards them from that result. True to form, the swing was in the other direction as Labour gained the seat with an even bigger share of the vote. John Anderton was easily elected with almost 75% of vote, and this puts the current Conservative minority administration in Bassetlaw under serious pressure. They only have a one seat advantage over Labour with three Independent Councillors holding the balance of power. Labour look set to take control in Bassetlaw in May's partial Council elections.

Bassetlaw District Council
CON		LAB				IND
23	-1	22		+1		3		-
Worksop North East (Bassetlaw)
By-Election Candidate			Votes		Vote %		+/-
John Anderton (LAB)			1198		74.0%		+10.0%
Barry Bowles (CON)			317		19.6%		-16.4%
Mark Hunter (LD)			28		1.7%		+1.7%
Geoff Coe (IND)			75		4.6%		+4.6%

In Kent, there were actually two by-elections last night. We knew about the County Council vacancy for Romney Marsh, however no-one outside of Kent appeared to have realised that there was a by-election for Lydd, Shepway DC taking place as well. The death of Conservative Cllr. Willie Richardson caused both vacancies but the received wisdom was that there would be no by-election for the District seat as it fell under the six month rule.

Anyway, on paper both looked like safe Conservative wards and the blues easily held them. In the County Council by-election Carole Waters increased her party's vote by 7.6%, probably at the expense of UKIP who dropped back from their strong 2009 result. Labour went from fourth to second but they weren't close to challenging the Tories for the win. In the District seat Tony Hills won the seat for the Tories with just under half the vote; a similar share to the 2007 result. At the last election the Shepway Independents were the main challengers but as they did not stand. Labour, however, did when they haven't in previous years. Despite their being another Independent on the ballot Labour took the bulk of the local party's vote share and came from no-where to take second place. The Liberal Democrats just managed third ahead of the Independent candidate. There are full elections in Shepway this May where the Conservatives will be defending their big majority.

Romney Marsh (Kent)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Carole Waters (CON)	2222	54.1%	+7.6%
Doug Suckling (LAB)	748	18.2%	+11.5%
Val Loseby (LD)	479	11.7%	-1.4%
David Cammegh (UKIP)	420	10.2%	-13.3%
Rochelle Saunders (IND)	238	5.8%	-0.8%
N/C (Shepway Independents)	0	0.0%	-3.6%

Lydd (Shepway)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %
Tony Hills (CON)	591	49.3%
Donald Russell (LAB)	247	20.6%
Ted Last (LD)	184	15.3%
Rochelle Saunders (IND)	177	14.8%

By-Election Preview (10th February)

There are two by-elections taking place tomorrow the Conservatives are defending them both. We are back in Kent for the third time in as many months and there is a vacancy in a CON/LAB marginal for the Bassetlaw District Council (Nottinghamshire)

We'll start with Bassetlaw, where the imaginatively named Worksop North East ward is up for grabs. The by-election is taking place following the disqualification of Conservative Councillor Bill Graham for non-attendance. Graham's extended absence was for fairly legitimate health reasons, but as control of the Council is slipping away from the Tories they were unable to prevent Labour forcing a vote to trigger this by-election. Graham held his seat three years ago in a close two way battle with Labour, and as the reds already hold the other two seats in this multi-member ward they will be very confident of a gain. There have already been two by-elections in Bassetlaw since the General Election and Labour enjoyed significant swings towards them in both. They won Worksop North East last May with almost two thirds of the vote so the Tories will need a huge swing towards them just to hang on to this seat. A Labour gain is very likely, and this will further harm the Conservative minority administration currently clinging to power in Bassetlaw. The Tories will hold 23 of the 48 seats if they fail to win tomorrow, and with Labour breathing down their necks it will be touch and go if they hang on until this May's partial council elections.

Bassetlaw District Council
CON	LAB	IND			VAC
23	21	3			1
Worksop North East (Bassetlaw)
By-Election Candidate			2007	2008		2010
John Anderton (LAB)			52.6%	46.8%		64.1%
Barry Bowles (CON)			47.4%	53.2%		35.9%
Mark Hunter (LD)			-	-		-
Geoff Coe (IND)			-	-		-

The by-election in Kent is likely to be a lot easier for the Conservatives. The vacancy for the Romney Marsh ward has arisen following the death of Cllr. Willie Richardson, who comfortably won his County Council seat in 2009. UKIP beat the other main parties to take second place two years ago but as there strong performance is likely to be linked to the European elections which took place on the same day they are likely to fall back. Neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats are very competitive in this ward so the Conservatives should hold this. They also enjoy a big majority on the County Council, so even if there is a shock result tomorrow the Tories will still have control of Kent.

Romney Marsh (Kent)
By-Election Candidate	2009
Carole Waters (CON)	46.5%
David Cammegh (UKIP)	23.5%
Val Loseby (LD)	13.0%
Doug Suckling (LAB)	6.7%
Rochelle Saunders (IND)	6.6%
N/C (Shepway Independents)	3.6%

By-Election Preview (16th September)

Following the deferred elections in Norwich and Exeter last Thursday, this week is not quite as busy. But there are still plenty of Council by-elections to keep us entertained with six top-tier vacancies along with three District Council seats and one Town. It's quite London centric with three by-elections taking place in the capital on Thursday. Elsewhere there are polls in Knowsley (Merseyside), Cambridgeshire and Nottinghamshire.

I'll start in London where by far the most competitive top-tier election is taking place. The New River ward in Hackney is up for election following the death of Conservative Cllr. Maureen Middleton. She was one of only four Conservative Councillors in this Labour dominated Borough and her party will struggle to defend her seat. Middleton pipped the third Labour candidate in New River to third place with a margin of just 39 votes. The other two seats in this multi-member ward are held by Labour. The Conservative candidate defending this seat for his party was 136 votes behind Middleton early this year. Labour currently hold 50 of the 57 seats in Hackney so it's not as if they need another. But given the fact Middleton's personal vote seemed to be the only reason they didn't pick up all three seats here in May a gain looks on the cards.

The two other by-elections in London are taking place in Kensington and Chelsea. Although both are in safe Conservative wards the reason for the two vacancies are noteworthy. They have arisen after an e-mail scandal engulfed the London Borough leading to the resignation of two Conservative Councillors; Barry Phelps and Mark Daley. They represented the Earls Court and Cremone wards respectively. Given the reason for these by-elections there is potential here for an upset, but there has already been a by-election in this Borough since the scandal broke. Two months ago the Tories easily held the Holland ward and so the local electorate didn't punish the party for Phelps and Daley's behaviour on that occasion. We'll soon find out if the voters who backed the pair in May take a different route. As the Tories currently hold 43 of the 54 seats in Kensington and Chelsea this result will not affect the balance of power on the Council.

In Knowsley there is a vacancy for the Park ward. This is due to the resignation of Labour Cllr. Margaret Dobbie for Personal Reasons. The ward is such a safe one for Labour no-one opposed Dobbie in 2007. This year the Liberal Democrats put up a candidate who was soundly beaten. Labour enjoy a huge majority on the Council and so even if they suffered an unlikely loss they would still control Knowsley.

In Cambridgeshire the East Chesterton ward has been vacated by the Liberal Democrat Councillor Siep Wijsenbeek, who has apparently moved to France! The Lib Dems are only defending a 10% majority in this by-election and so it's unlikely the local party are too chuffed with having to defend this seat. The Conservatives hold 42 of the 69 seats so this is yet another Council which will be unaffected by a gain.

In Nottinghamshire, there is a by-election for the Worksop West ward following the death of Conservative Cllr. Michael Bennett. Bennett easily won this seat in 2009 and so the Tories should be able to hold this on Thursday. If they fail though then their slender majority will be even smaller. The Tories currently hold 35 of the 66 seats so they'd be left with a majority of just 2 if they lost this seat.

The following by-elections will also take place on Thursday: Worksop South, Bassetlaw District Council (Nottinghamshire); Cadley, Preston City Council (Lancashire); Stanwix Urban, Carlisle City Council (Cumbria); Northcourt, Abingdon Town Council (Oxfordshire).

New River (Hackney)			Cremone (Ken. & Chel.)
Candidate	2010		Candidate	Vote %
Jonathan Burke (LAB)	37.5%		Gerard Hargreaves (CON)	50.2%
Benzion Papier (CON)	33.6%		Mabel McKeown (LAB)	23.1%
Benjamin Mathis (LD)	15.7%		Peter Kosta (LD)	21.9%
Stuart Coggins (GRN)	13.2%		David Coburn (UKIP)	4.9
Darren Fraser (IND)	-		Julia Stephenson (GRN)	-
Park (Knowsley)			Earls Court (Ken. & Chel.)
Candidate	2010		Candidate	Vote %
Tony Brennan (LAB)	79.9%		Malcolm Spalding (CON)	44.9%
John White (LD)	20.1%		Joel Bishop (LAB)	18.8%
Gary Robertson (CON)	-		Linda Wade (LD)	20.5%
			Michael Enright (GRN)	10%
E Chesterton (Camb.)			Elizabeth Arbuthnot (IND)	5.7%
Candidate	2009		Jack Bovill (IND)	-
Ian Manning (LD)	35.8%		Antony Little (UKIP)	-
Matthew Bradney (CON)	24.8%
Gerri Bird (LAB)	15%		Worksop West (Notting.)
Peter Pope (GRN)	14.7%		Candidate	2009
Peter Burkinshaw (UKIP)	9.7%		Alec Thorpe (CON)	50.8%
Anna Gordon (SOC)	-		Kevin Greaves (LAB)	32.9%
			Leon Duveen (LD)	16.3%
			Terry Coleman (IND)	-
			Ron Dawes (IND)	-