This week's two Scottish by-elections are coming from Oban North & Lorn ward of Argyll & Bute Council, and the Inverness South ward of Highland Council.
Addressing Argyll first, Oban North and Lorn is a largely rural ward covering a small portion of the north of Oban along with a wide rural expanse both to the north and south of the town. The by-election here was necessitated by the death of Scottish Nationalist Councillor Donald MacDonald. In common with much of rural Scotland, Independent candidates dominated the election here back in 2007, winning 2 out of 4 seats and taking half of the vote between six candidates. The other seat here went to the Liberal Democrats, who formed an administration along with most of the Independents on the council.
That pattern could be set to change however, with only two Independent candidates in this by-election, one of whom had stood in 2007 only taking 4% of the first preferences. The SNP look likely to be the strongest party in this by-election as they were quite comfortably ahead of the Lib Dems on first preferences last time around. Although the latter have the benefit of having the only party incumbent here, but it remains to be seen how much they will be affected in Argyll by their post-coalition drop in support across Scotland.
The Conservatives had a low vote share last time though, and there is no Labour candidate in what is a county where they essentially do not exist, meaning there is little in the way of organised opposition to take advantage of any Lib Dem collapse. Doyle could potentially increase his vote in the reduced field of independent candidates, although Gwyneth Neal is likely to be the Independent to watch, with a seemingly wide-ranging number of positions across various boards and bodies in the area.
Argyll & Bute Council | ||||||||
AoIC | SNP | LD | AF | Con | N-A | A&BICG | Vac | |
13 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
Oban North & Lorn | ||||||||
By-Election Candidate | 2007 | |||||||
N/C (Ind) | 50.7% | |||||||
Louise Glen-Lee (SNP) | 22.4% | |||||||
Graham Dale (LD) | 14.6% | |||||||
Roy Rutherford (Con) | 8.5% | |||||||
George Doyle (Ind) | 3.9% | |||||||
Gwyneth Neal (Ind) | - | |||||||
* AoIC = Alliance of Independent Councillors; AF = Argyll First; N-A = Non-Aligned; A&BICG = Argyll & Bute Independent Councillor Group.
Moving north to Inverness, the seat here was vacated by Labour Councillor John Holden after being jailed for benefits fraud. Inverness South covers the south-eastern fringe of the city along with a vast expanse of virtually empty land sweeping to the south along the A9 road and the River Earn, and as a point of interest also contains the site of the Battle of Culloden which ended the Jacobite uprising of 1745.
Any uprising this time around is likely to be to the benefit of the SNP who took the most first preferences here in 2007. In contrast to the Oban seat, Inverness South has much more significant party political support with a seat each for the SNP, Liberal Democrats and Labour as well as one independent. Akin to Labour in Argyll, the Highland Council area is a Tory-free zone for councillors, although this was one of their relatively stronger wards in the region. This time around, all four main Scottish parties are contesting the seat along with the Greens, a new Independent candidate, and the Christian Party who are fielding their Scottish leader who lives in the city.
The Christian Party poll relatively well here, and beat the Conservatives in an Inverness West by-election back in 2009. However, the likely contenders for the seat will be the SNP unless the Lib Dems can maintain their previous support here or if Labour can somehow increase their support despite their former councillor's departure under a cloud.
Highland Council | |||||||
IND | LD | SNP | Lab | IMG | IAG | N-A | Vac |
25 | 20 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
Inverness S | |||||||
By-Election Candidate | 2007 | ||||||
Ken Gowans (SNP) | 27% | ||||||
Carolyn Caddick (LD) | 23% | ||||||
N/C (Ind) | 22.4% | ||||||
Katherine MacKenzie (Lab) | 17.1% | ||||||
David Bonsor (Con) | 10.5% | ||||||
Donald Boyd (ChrP) | - | ||||||
Gale Falconer (Grn) | - | ||||||
David McGrath (Ind) | - | ||||||
* IMG = Independent Members Group; IAG = Independent Alliance Group.
We're back in the Midlands for this week's English by-elections and I'm not going to lie; they aren't exactly marginals! We have a couple from Scotland too though so look out for Kristofer Keane's article on them later this evening. First, here's Andrew Teale's preview of the elections in Leicestershire and East Staffordshire. TH
Syston Ridgeway, Leicestershire County Council; caused by the death of Conservative Councillor Mike Preston.
Located six miles north-east of Leicester on the Fosse Way and the road to Melton is the town of Syston. These days it's a commuter town for the city of Leicester, with Syston station having hourly trains to Leicester and Nottingham on the so-called Ivanhoe Line, and its politics basically reflects that. This county division combines the eastern half of the town with the even richer villages of Queniborough and Rearsby to the north and a rural area to the east as far as South Croxton. Only one of the division's six-and-a-half census areas (in central Syston) is within England's most deprived 40%, while two-and-a-half (Queniborough, Rearsby and another part of Syston) are in the least deprived 20%.
In 2009 there was a large Conservative majority with the British National Party finishing a rather distant second with 19% of the vote. The BNP have performed well in this part of Leicestershire over the last few years and in May they held their seat in East Goscote ward of Charnwood council (one of only two seats the BNP won in May). East Goscote ward borders this county division and the BNP councillor is standing in this by-election against the three main parties.
Syston Ridgeway (Lei'shire) | |
By-Election Candidate | 2009 |
Stephen Hampson (Con) | 52.6% |
Cathy Duffy (BNP) | 19.4% |
Richard Miller (LD) | 17.4% |
Colin Lovell (Lab) | 10.6% |
Yoxall, East Staffordshire; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor who "wants to spend more time on his farm" - he was elected for the first time in May so perhaps decided that being a local councillor wasn't for him.
East Staffordshire is a starkly divided local government district, with the usually-Labour brewing town of Burton-upon-Trent normally outvoted by the Tory town of Uttoxeter and the rural area of which this ward is a part. It consists of several villages on or just off the A515 Lichfield-Ashbourne road, with Yoxall itself at the south end, Newborough at the north end and Hoar Cross in between.
May's result was an easy victory for the Conservatives, although from Labour's point of view is an improvement on the 87%/13% drubbing they got in 2007. The by-election is another straight Con/Lab fight.
Yoxall (E. Staffs) | |
By-Election Candidate | 2011 |
Beryl Behague (Con) | 79.3% |
John McKiernan (Lab) | 20.7% |
We have six by-elections this week with two key contests taking place in the West Midlands. The minority Conservative group in Walsall are hanging on to control by a thread and a Labour gain tomorrow in the marginal Bloxwich East would bring the two parties level in seats. The Tories are also at risk in Newcastle-under-Lyme where the Newchapel ward is up for grabs. They lead a coalition with the Liberal Democrats in the Staffordshire Borough but Labour have the most seats and will be looking to take control in next May's elections.
Later today we have Kristofer Keane previewing the North Lanarkshire by-election, but without further ado I'll leave you with Andrew Teale's rundown of tomorrow's English contests. TH
Bloxwich East, Walsall MBC; caused by the death of Conservative Councillor Bill Tweddle.
Arguably the northernmost town of the Black Country, Bloxwich became famous in the nineteenth century as the UK's foremost manufacturer of awl blades, as well as for other light metalworking. The town was swallowed up into Walsall county borough relatively early, and Walsall Corporation built council houses on much of the land now in this ward, which is entirely on the eastern side of the A34 Walsall-Stafford road; as a result most of the census areas rank highly in the indices of multiple deprivation.
In Walsall this doesn't translate into a safe Labour ward because of Walsall Labour's wacky reputation; the three seats split 2C/1Lab when the ward was created in 2004 and stayed that way until this May; Labour held on by just thirteen votes in 2006, the Conservatives held in the following two years with increasing majorities (296 in 2007, 745 in 2008), and Labour held rather more comfortably in 2010 by 248 votes.
The change finally came in May with a Labour gain by just 6 votes, and Labour now have a chance to gain the final Conservative seat in this by-election.
Walsall Council | |||||||
Lab | LD | Con | Ind | Vac | |||
26 | 5 | 27 | 1 | 1 | |||
Bloxwich East | |||||||
By-Election Candidate | 2011 | 2010 | 2008 | ||||
Julie Fitzpatrick (Lab) | 42.8% | 45.8% | 25.4% | ||||
Les Beeley (Con) | 42.3% | 39.8% | 58.9% | ||||
Derek Bennett (UKIP) | 8.1% | - | - | ||||
N/C (DLP) | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.8% | ||||
N/C (LD) | 2.9% | 10.1% | 8.9% | ||||
Leandra Gebrakendan (Grn) | - | - | - | ||||
Chris Newey (ED) | - | - | - | ||||
Newchapel, Newcastle-under-Lyme BC (Staffordshire); caused by the resignation of Conservative Councillor Christian Barber.
The north-eastern corner of Newcastle-under-Lyme district, this ward covers a surprisingly hilly area between the towns of Kidsgrove and Biddulph which was once part of Kidsgrove Urban District. Running from Newchapel itself at the southern end, through Harriseahead and on to the hilltop village of Mow Cop, which rises to a summit of 335 metres (1100 feet) and straddles the Staffordshire/Cheshire border along the hill of the same name. The ward's two census areas are both in the middle of the deprivation indices.
The politics of the ward are quite interesting; when it was created in 2002 the Lib Dems won both seats, but promptly lost them in 2003 (to the Conservatives) and 2004 (to Labour; there was no Conservative candidate that year, presumably they messed up their nomination papers). The Conservatives decisively gained the Labour seat in 2008 but performed relatively poorly in a February 2010 by-election which saw a close three-way race for second place won by UKIP, who are very well organised in this borough.
Labour gained the ward in May by 50 votes and will now be looking to gain the other seat.
Newcastle-Under-Lyme Borough Council | |||||||
Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Vac | |||
24 | 20 | 12 | 2 | 2 | |||
Newchapel | |||||||
By-Election Candidate | 2011 | 2010 b/e | 2008 | ||||
Elsie Bates (Lab) | 32.7% | 22.2% | 23.3% | ||||
Carl Thomson (Con) | 27.3% | 33.5% | 44.1% | ||||
N/C (Ind) | 18.1% | - | - | ||||
Tricia Harrison (UKIP) | 15.4% | 23.8% | 13.5% | ||||
Colin Brown (LD) | 6.5% | 20.5% | 19.1% | ||||
Bude North and Stratton, Cornwall (Unitary); caused by the resignation of Liberal Democrat Councillor Nathan Bale.
Cornwall's northernmost town, Bude is a Victorian seaside resort with good surfing conditions, while its twin town Stratton, about a mile inland, is a more ancient market town which was once the centre of one of Cornwall's ten hundreds. Created in 2009 for the unitary Cornwall council, the ward is one of two-and-a-half wards within the area covered by Bude-Stratton town council; it contains the northern half of Bude, all of Stratton and the village of Flexbury just to the north of Bude.
In 2009 it was a straight fight between Conservative and Liberal Democrats, with the latter winning a by landslide; the Lib Dem Councillor had previously represented Poughill and Stratton ward on North Cornwall district council. Poughill and Stratton ward normally split LD/Ind, while Bude ward was safe Lib Dem in 2007 but the two seats split in 2003 between Lib Dem and Mebyon Kernow, the Cornish nationalist movement, who were not far behind the two Lib Dem candidates in 2005 in the former Bude-Stratton county division.
Candidates for the by-election are the three main parties (and if there has ever previously been a Labour candidate here it's a very long time ago) plus an Independent amusingly named Louise Emo. It'll be interesting to see if there's an Emo vote here.
Cornwall Council | ||||||
Con | LD | IG | MK | Lab | Ind | Vac |
47 | 39 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Bude North & Stratton | ||||||
By-Election Candidate | 2009 | |||||
David Parsons (LD) | 72.4% | |||||
Trevor Macey (Con) | 27.6% | |||||
Louise Emo (Ind) | - | |||||
Adrian Jones (Lab) | - | |||||
Wyreside, Lancashire County Council; caused by the death of Conservative Councillor Bob Mutch.
This county division is basically the rural northern half of the Fylde peninsula, covering the area between Garstang and the Wyre estuary together with a few villages on the south side of the Wyre, the largest of which is Great Eccleston. The main settlements in the ward are Pilling, Preesall, Hambleton and Knott End-on-Sea, from which the ferry to Fleetwood departs that is the only link between Fleetwood and the rest of the Lancaster and Fleetwood parliamentary constituency. It's an agricultural and surprisingly low-lying area, with the main road from Pilling to Lancaster once regularly flooded by high tides. All of the division's census areas are within the 40% least deprived in England with the exception of Knott End, which has a significant retiree population.
The division is safe Tory and wasn't seriously contested in 2009; in 2005 it was a straight fight between Tory and Labour, the Conservatives winning with just under two-thirds of the vote. I'm not sure of the reason for the Green strength as the Greens only stood in one of the constituent district wards in May (Pilling, polling 21%), but this division does border the Green-held county division of Lancaster Central. The same Green candidate is contesting the election.
Wyreside (Lancashire) | |
By-Election Candidate | 2009 |
Vivien Taylor (Con) | 65.9% |
Sue White (Grn) | 21.1% |
Kevin Higginson (Lab) | 13.1% |
Simon Noble (UKIP) | - |
Thornton Dale and The Wolds, North Yorkshire County Council; caused by the resignation of Conservative Councillor Ron Haigh in order to care for his wife.
This is an enormously-sized division covering a swathe of countryside between Norton, Pickering and Scarborough. From the northern end it runs along the Whitby-Pickering road past the Hole of Horcum, down to the beautiful village of Thornton-le-Dale on the Pickering-Scarborough road (Thornton Dale ward), then across the low-lying Vale of Derwent to take in some small villages up on the Yorkshire Wolds (Rillington, Sherburn and Wolds wards). With the exception of Thornton-le-Dale, which is more upmarket, most of the census areas are in the middle of the deprivation indices.
The 2009 result suggests that this should be an easy Conservative hold.
Thornton Dale & The Wolds (North Yorkshire) | |
By-Election Candidate | 2009 |
Janet Sanderson (Con) | 61.5% |
Mike Beckett (LD) | 29.7% |
N/C (Lab) | 8.8% |
Andrew Teale
Here are this week's changes to the by-election page:
Council | Type | Ward | Defending Party | Reason | Date |
Wrexham | Wales | Ruabon | Plaid Cymru | Death | 17th Nov |
Bradford | Metro. | Great Horton | Labour | Resigned | 24th Nov |
Norfolk | County | Lakenham | Lib Dem | Resigned | 24th Nov |
Cornwall | County (U) | Wendron | Independent | Death | 24th Nov |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Adur | District | Eastbrook | Lib Dem | Disqualified | TBA |
Tamworth | District | Mercian | Conservative | Death | TBA |
Our by-election list is a little bit shorter this week as just two new vacancies have replaced the nine that took place last week. We're going to be busy right up until December as there are currently at least four by-elections scheduled every week until the 24th November.
As mentioned last week, it will be interesting to see if the Adur by-election is actually called or whether they hold it back until May next year. The Conservatives were very vocal in their opposition to the last by-election taking place barely six months before the partial Council elections.
Of course, they were defending the seat last week and came very close to losing it to Labour.
They will be strong favourites to gain the Eastbrook from the Liberal Democrats so they might be less inclined to brand this by-election a 'waste' of money. The fact this term runs until 2014 could be used to differential the two by-elections (see comments).
If a by-election does take place we will try and do a bit better with our pre-count coverage. At least we aren't strangers to the good political folk of Adur now!
Tom Harris
As some of you will know, the sometime Britain-Votes contributor Kayleigh Lewis accompanied me to the count on Tuesday. She is a trainee journalist and so she came along for the 'experience'. Here is her take on the evening's events... TH
Tens (16) gathered on Tuesday night for the exhilarating climax of a hard fought campaign for the hearts and minds of Cokeham, Adur District Council. The ward is found in the tiny town of Sompting on the A27 somewhere between Brighton and Worthing but not particularly close to either.
Here the results were counted up in a small local church which smelt exactly like… a small local church.
There was no sign of the Green candidate. In fact I was asked by the Labour agent whether I was the Green candidate, which suggested that no-one knew who the Green candidate was……
However, there was somebody wearing a lot of green and masquerading as a potential Green candidate, but I wasn't fooled. This was just a regular guy in a green coat, green hat with a string around his chin and a generally outdoors-y appearance; he was actually a Labour member.
There were other
fashion faux pas on display throughout the evening, such as the far-out UKIP candidates, ablaze with yellow upon purple, a feast for the eyes if ever there were one. This did make a change from a sea (puddle in this case) of suits and corduroy
As things heated up a few more keen observers arrived, though they were mostly elderly and might have just spent a bit more time getting to the venue.
And there was still no sign of the Green candidate.
There was a flurry of excitement as the counters counted, I noticed the founder of Britain-Votes.co.uk on tippy-toes trying to get a better look at the 'action'. The only other person sitting, stood up, as if to suggest that the time was now and the end to this fascinating event was nearing.
Unfortunately he appeared to be mistaken.
The political throng fidgeted, restless, eager, whilst the counters continued to count, I remained seated, ambivalent at best. Bored, my gaze turned to the window sill where I noticed a box of lost property. A small pink fleece seemed to be trying to escape out of the window. I sympathised.
Then an announcement, the winner (I think); it was nothing like the movies suggested, and certainly no champagne moment, but a winner nonetheless (hurrah)! Nicholas Piggott was elected, the returning Conservative, there were just six votes in it but the Labour party seemed almost as happy, although (visibly) it was more relief than joy.
Meanwhile the LibDems were putting on a brave face after coming last, getting less votes than the Green candidate who I'm not even sure campaigned. UKIP were neither up nor down from last May so their snazzy ensembles clearly didn't win over the classy people of Cokeham ward.
So with all the fun over it was time to head home from my first, and possible last, by-election count.
Needless to say there was still no sign of the Green candidate.
Kay is planning to provide a weekend slot on Britain-Votes.co.uk which will be a bit more light-hearted than our usual content. Naturally, most political blogs are written by people who are firmly inside the 'political bubble' (this one is, certainly!) so hopefully Kay will be able to offer something a bit different as an interested, but not engrossed, observer.
