A Look @: Central Scotland (Part II)

This posts looks at the constituencies wholly contained within the South Lanarkshire and Falkirk Council areas. To find the other five constituencies seats click here, and to find the regional discussion click here.

Constituency	MSP	Majority	Swing Required	First Elected	B-V.co.uk
East Kilbride	Andy Kerr	2108	3.4%	1999	LAB Lean
Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse	Tom McCabe	3623	6.7%	1999	LAB Safe
Falkirk East	Catty Peattie	1839	3.1%	1999	Too Close
Falkirk West	Michael Matheson	743	1.3%	2007	SNP Lean

A month ago Labour's Andy Kerr seemed set for an easy return to the Scottish Parliament but as his party have lost support during the campaign his East Kilbride constituency has become a key marginal. Kerr has held this seat since the first election for the Scottish Parliament but the surge in support for the Scottish Nationalists has left him fighting his toughest campaign yet. The constituency has undergone some changes as a result of the boundary review as the South Lanarkshire ward of Avondale & Stonehouse has been moved from the constituency and split between the Clydesdale and Hamilton Larkhall & Stonehouse seats. This has increased Kerr's notional majority slightly as the ward was marginally SNP leaning.

On most recent polls the Scottish Nationalists would have taken this constituency on a Uniform Swing but today's final poll from YouGov would leave them just short. They have kept faith with the same candidate that has contested this seat in every Scottish Parliament election Linda Fabiani. She has been a list MSP for the Central region since 1999 and will be hoping to beat the national swing to win this constituency. As the SNP tend to under perform their polling at the ballot box I think Kerr will just hold out, but it should be tight.

The newly created Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse seat is quite different from the old Hamilton South constituency that the Labour MSP Tom McCabe has represented since 1999. It has lost the Blantyre ward to the Rutherglen seat and gained Hamilton North & East, Larkhall and the Stonehouse part of the Avondale & Stonehouse ward. On paper McCabe's notional majority is virtually unchanged from four years ago but he will not have the advantage of a personal vote in some areas of this new constituency.

The SNP are in second place and they have selected their Central Scotland MSP Christina McKelvie to contest this seat. She was first elected to Holyrood in 2007 when she won her regional seat after failing to gain this constituency. The 6.7% swing required for McKelvie to win is asking a lot and I expect McCabe to return for a fourth term.

The two constituencies within the Falkirk Council area have been virtually unchanged in the boundary review. Both seats are key LAB/SNP marginals in the battle to become the largest party in the fourth Scottish Parliament. Falkirk East MSP Catty Peattie is another Labour incumbent who has seen her chances of re-election diminish in recent weeks. Her notional 3.1% majority seemed enough at the start of the campaign but even as the SNP have dropped back from their polling high at the end of April this is right on the edge of the National Swing. The Scottish Nationalists have selected local Councillor Angus MacDonald as their candidate and he has to fancy his chances of winning this seat. The bookies regard this as very close and so do I.

The only constituency in Central Scotland that Labour are not defending is Falkirk West. In fact, despite holding the Westminster seat they have failed to win the equivalent Scottish constituency since the Parliament was set up. This is mainly down to an internal dispute in the lead up to the first devolved elections when the then Labour MP for Falkirk West Dennis Canavan left the party after failing to secure the nomination for the Scottish Parliament seat. He stood as an Independent and won with a huge majority as the official Labour candidate managed only 18% of the vote. Canavan held the seat in 2003 but then stood down in 2007, leaving behind one of the most unpredictable open seats in Scotland.

The SNP just came out on top four years ago as Michael Matheson was rewarded for his persistence and won the seat at the third time of asking. With a notional majority of just 743 he look vulnerable before the campaign got going but with the final polls showing the SNP significantly up on 2007 he looks set to win a second term. Labour have kept faith with Dennis Goldie, who narrowly missed out at the last election. It's likely to be close but I think Matheson should come out on top.

A Look @: West Scotland (Part III)

This post looks at the List seats in the region. To find the constituency seats in the centre of the region click here, and the east and west here.

Here is the notional 2007 result for this regional list:

Party	Const. Seats	Region Votes	Region Votes %	Add. Members	Total Members
Labour	8	101546	34.6%	0	8
SNP	1	83867	28.5%	4	5
Conservative	1	43324	14.7%	2	3
Lib. Dem.	0	23965	8.2%	1	1
Green	0	8700	3%	0	0
Senior Citizen	2.0%	SLP			0.6%
Solidarity	1.8%	Scottish Unionist			0.5%
Christian Party	1.4%	UKIP			0.3%
BNP	1.2%	Scottish Voice			0.2%
Christian Peoples	1.1%	Jacobite Party			0.2%
Save NHS	1%	Socialist Equality Party			0.05%
Socialist Party	0.6%
Additional Members
1. Stewart Maxwell			2. Gil Paterson
3. Ross Finnie			4. Annabel Goldie
5. Bill Wilson			6. Stuart McMillan
7. Jackson Carlaw

As you can see the allocation of the regional seats were relatively unchanged by the boundary review despite the fact one of the constituencies has notionally changed hands. This is because that constituency has gone from Labour to the Conservatives and as that still leaves Labour with eight constituencies they are over represented in this region. The notional gain for the Conservatives does mean their second list seat is more vulnerable than it was in 2007.

In the constituency posts I tried to keep the number of seats in the Too Close column to a minimum as polls open in less than 24 hours. Still, I couldn't bring myself to call two of them and so this post will investigate how they could affect the eventual make-up of the Scottish Parliament. The two constituencies I felt were too tight are Eastwood and Cunninghame South. Among the more controversial calls is Dumbarton, which I've popped in the SNP column as a gain from Labour. It's a shame there isn't more time to canvass opinion of these seats but unfortunately our tight timetable was pushed off schedule last week and we'll have to go with what we have.

Eastwood is the notional gain for the Conservatives that is alluded to above. The sitting Labour MSP has the unenviable task of overturning a 3500 vote notional majority to keep his job but on recent polling that is possible. In Cunninghame South the SNP require a 4.7% swing to gain the seat from Labour but as this is a relatively small constituency and within reach on current Uniform Swing projections so it is very much in play. I'll go through the scenarios from a good night for Labour to a bad one.

As mentioned before we are averaging the regional voting intentions from recent polls by what we regard as established companies. This post is based on the Mori and YouGov polls from 21^st April. The final forecast will recalculate these seats based on the final polling expected to be released today.

So, if Labour win both constituencies then how would the regional seats break:

Party	Const. Seats	U-Swing	Regional Members	Total Members
Labour	8	35.9	0	8
SNP	2	38.0	4	6
Conservatives	0	11.8	2	2
Lib. Dems.	0	4.4	0	0
Greens	0	5.9	1	1

Seat 1: Stewart Maxwell (SNP), Seat 2: Annabel Goldie (CON), Seat 3: Derek Mackay (SNP), Seat 4: Gil Paterson (SNP), Seat 5: Fiona McLeod (SNP), Seat 6: Jackson Carlaw (CON), Seat 7: Steen Parish (GRN).

In this scenario the first seat would go to the SNP and so their lead candidate Stewart Maxwell would take the first seat and thus win a third term in the Scottish Parliament. Maxwell was their lead candidate in the 2007 election as well. The Scottish Conservative leader Annabel Goldie would win the second seat and secure a fourth term at Holyrood. The third seat is allocated to the SNP but we have assumed their #2 candidate Kenneth Gibson will hold his Cunninghame North constituency Derek Mackay takes the seat. The leader of Renfrewshire Council is a new addition to the Nationalist's list this year and the 33 year old is thought of highly within the party. Even if Gibson loses his constituency seat at number three on the SNP regional list Mackay is very likely to win a seat in Parliament.

The SNP continue to pick up regional seats under this scenario and Gil Paterson is next in line. I don't think he'll be able to gain the Clydebank & Milngavie constituency for his party but Paterson looks set to win a second term as a regional MSP, despite falling two places in the list. The fifth seat would also go to the SNP and Fiona McLeod, who has moved up a place in the SNP list from 2007, would enter the Scottish Parliament. She is also contesting the Stathkelvin & Bearsden constituency, but it won't be an easy task to defeat the Labour incumbent there.

Finally we come to a potential winner from another party as the sixth seat in this scenario goes to the Conservative's #2 candidate Jackson Carlaw. He was first elected as a West of Scotland regional MSP in 2007 and although his party seem to have lost ground since then he should hang on to his seat. The really big news on the West Scotland list is that on current polling the Greens are on course to pick up a seat from the Liberal Democrats. In fact, on the Britain-Votes seat calculator there is nothing between them and the Conservatives in the race for the sixth seat. The Greens' lead candidate is Steen Parish and he'll be hoping his party can maintain its momentum and keep ahead of the Liberal Democrats.

With Labour winning far too many constituencies to compete for the regional seats and the Liberal Democrats vote share falling so low the final seat is actually quite comfortable for the Greens. They take it well ahead of the SNPs #6 candidate Stuart McMillan, who is a current MSP for the region. The sole Liberal Democrats MSP for the West of Scotland Ross Finnie is still their lead candidate but he will need a sharp upturn in his party's fortunes if he is to win re-election. The other current MSP who would not win under this scenario is the SNP's Bill Wilson, who has opted to stand on the Lothians list instead.

So, what happens of the SNP gain Cunninghame South and Labour win Eastwood?

Party	Const. Seats	U-Swing	Regional Members	Total Members
Labour	7	35.9	0	7
SNP	3	38.0	4	7
Conservatives	0	11.8	2	2
Lib. Dems.	0	4.4	0	0
Greens	0	5.9	1	1

Seat 1: Annabel Goldie (CON), Seat 2: Stewart Maxwell (SNP), Seat 3: Derek Mackay (SNP), Seat 4: Gil Paterson (SNP), Seat 5: Jackson Carlaw (CON), Seat 6: Steen Parish (GRN), Seat 7: Fiona McLeod (SNP).

The simple answer is pretty much the same as above. The order is a bit different but the same seven would head to Holyrood as the West Scotland regional MSPs. Of course, the big difference to the shape of the Parliament is that the SNP would score a tangible gain over Labour as their success in the constituency does not lose them a seat in the regional list.

Then there is the scenario where the Conservatives win Eastwood but Labour hold off the SNP in Cunninghame South:

Party	Const. Seats	U-Swing	Regional Members	Total Members
Labour	7	35.9	0	7
SNP	2	38.0	5	7
Conservatives	1	11.8	1	2
Lib. Dems.	0	4.4	0	0
Greens	0	5.9	1	1

Seat 1: Stewart Maxwell (SNP), Seat 2: Derek Mackay (SNP), Seat 3: Gil Paterson (SNP), Seat 4: Fiona McLeod (SNP), Seat 5: Annabel Goldie (CON), Seat 6: Steen Parish (GRN), Seat 7: Stuart McMillan (SNP).

Under this scenario the vote share currently projected for the SNP would still net them seven seats. The constituency gain for the Conservatives wouldn't be reflected in the total seats as they then lose a regional seat to the SNP. Therefore the Conservative MSP Jackson Carlaw will lose his seat but the SNP's Stuart McMillan sneaks back into Parliament. Labour are his closest challengers for the final seat and so their lead candidate Mary Fee would be in with a shout. In truth it is relatively comfortable on the above figures and they could cope with a 3% swing away from them.

Finally, how would the regional seats get allocated if Labour have a poor night and lose the two tight constituencies?

Party	Const. Seats	U-Swing	Regional Members	Total Members
Labour	6	35.9	1	7
SNP	3	38.0	4	7
Conservatives	1	11.8	1	2
Lib. Dems.	0	4.4	0	0
Greens	0	5.9	1	1

Seat 1: Stewart Maxwell (SNP), Seat 2: Derek Mackay (SNP), Seat 3: Gil Paterson (SNP), Seat 4: Annabel Goldie (CON), Seat 5: Steen Parish (GRN), Seat 6: Fiona McLeod (SNP), Seat 7: Mary Fee (LAB).

As you can see a further constituency loss for Labour is clawed back on the list as Mary Fee wins a regional seat at Jackson Carlaw's or Stuart McMillan's expense, depending on which way you look at it! The SNP would win the final seat on a 2% LAB>SNP swing on those figures but the Tories would have to do a lot better to take it. Essentially, if the Conservatives only poll around 12% on the regional vote then they are not going to be able to take more than two seats in total.

As for the SNP, if they manage to win one of their longer shots in the constituencies then they wouldn't really benefit overall. Strathkelvin & Bearsden and Clydebank & Milngavie are the possibilities but they would have to win both to win another overall seat at Labour's expense. As for the list personnel, Fiona McLeod and Gil Paterson are their respective candidates in those constituencies so they both have a good chance of heading to Holyrood either way. One thing is for sure, if Alex Salmond is going to get close to that coveted majority then his party will have taken a chunk out of Labour in this region.

A Look @: West Scotland (Part II)

This post covers the constituencies in the East and West of the Region, including the North Ayrshire, East Dunbartonshire, West Dunbartonshire and a bit of Argyll & Bute. The Central seats can be found here, and the regional discussion here.

Constituency	MSP	Majority	Swing Required	First Elected	B-V.co.uk
Cunninghame North	Kenneth Gibson	40	0.1%	2007	Lean SNP
Cunninghame South	Irene Oldfather	2160	4.7%	1999	Too Close
Strathkelvin & Bearsden	David Whitton	3583	5.1%	2007	LAB Lean
Clydebank & Milngavie	Des McNulty	3158	5.4%	1999	LAB Lean
Dumbarton	Jackie Baillie	1587	2.7%	1999	Lean SNP

The Cunninghame North seat is a key LAB/SNP marginal that could determine who ends up as the largest party. Before the campaign the Scottish Nationalist MSP Kenneth Gibson looked very vulnerable and can't have fancied his chances of retaining this constituency. He gained this seat in 2007 by defeating the incumbent Labour MSP on a 6% swing, securing a majority of just 48. The boundary changes have reduced that very slightly to 40 but the surge in support for the SNP during the campaign has shifted this contest firmly in Gibson's favour. With less than 48 hours left until polling stations open Labour do not look good value here.

Labour have kept faith with their losing candidate from 2007 Allan Wilson, who held the seat during the first two Parliaments. Following his defeat in 2007 Wilson considered legally challenging the result as there were over 1000 spoiled ballot papers, but after taking legal advice Labour decided not to pursue legal proceedings. More recently this seat has been at the centre of bizarre meeting between the SNP and Scottish Labour leaders. Last week Alex Salmond was campaigning in a local Asda store when the Iain Gray popped in to 'pick up some provisions.' The issue of who ran away from whom is sure to be a key issue locally in the last days of campaigning…! In truth, the SNP's lead in national polls should keep this seat out of Labour's reach.

Irene Oldfather has represented the Cunninghame South constituency since 1999 but this election is sure to be her toughest yet. Defending a notional majority of 2160 votes recent polling would suggest that this is within the SNP's reach. The Scottish Nationalists have selected Margaret Burgess as their candidate, who has led their Council group in North Ayrshire. Oldfather is the bookies favourite, but not by much, and there isn't anything to suggest that this seat will not follow the national swing. We'll wait until the final polls to call this one; either way it looks like it will be close.

On paper the Stathkelvin & Bearsden constituency is as marginal as the Cunninghame South seat just discussed. However, aside from the fact the seat is the other side of the region there are key differences. Firstly, the current Labour MSP David Whitton gained the seat for his party at the last election and, in general, first term incumbents get a boost as they build up a personal vote within the constituency. More importantly this seat has a much more interested electoral history than most.

The constituency was easily won by Labour in 1999 but the MSP Sam Galbraith resigned two years later due to ill health. Enter Dr. Jane Turner, who contested the by-election as an Independent in protest against plans to cut services at a local hospital. Turner came second behind Labour with 18% of the vote but this failure did not deter the GP. She stood again at the full Parliament elections in 2003 and scored a sensational victory, defeating the incumbent MSP. However, Turner slipped to third in 2007 as Whitton took the seat back for Labour and she is not contesting this election. Turner still received 18% of the vote four years ago so where this falls on Thursday could have a huge impact on the result.

Looking at the previous results Turner took votes from all of the major political parties, but it was Labour who suffered the most from her candidature. Bizarrely, in 2007 Labour barely increased on their vote share from the previous election. Their victory was largely as a result of Turner's voters returning from other political parties heading back and Whitton won with just 31% of the vote. It is therefore quite possible that the bulk of Turner's remaining supporters were ex-Labour voters and so Whitton could be in a better starting position than the notional figures suggest. Still, if this is true they are, by definition, soft supporters and with the SNP surging in the polls their candidate Fiona McLeod, who was a West of Scotland regional MSP during the first Parliament, must fancy her chances. Having said that, I think this is a much tougher seat for the SNP to take than Cunninghame South and Labour should do enough to hold on.

Des McNulty is yet another Labour incumbent who will not have enjoyed the recent Scottish Polling as Uniform Swing calculations bring the Scottish Nationalists very close in his Clydebank & Milngavie seat. He has been an MSP since 1999 and he is currently Scottish Labour's Shadow Education Minister. The seat is split between the East and West Dunbartonshire Council areas and Labour have a slight edge at local level. The SNP have selected their regional MSP Gil Paterson to contest this seat and he is almost certainly going to close the gap to Labour. But as the SNP have far better targets locally I think Labour should hold on here. The bookies regard McNulty as a strong favourite so there could be a few quid available for anyone who has strong reasons to think otherwise!

The final constituency seat to look at in West Scotland is Dumbarton and it represents the best chance for a Scottish Nationalist gain. It is more rural than the previous two seats and they are starting with a smaller notional deficit of just over 1500 votes. The Labour incumbent Jackie Baillie has been the MSP here since the Parliament was formed and she is very much in the SNP's firing line. They have selected local Councillor Iain Robertson to challenge Baillie in what the current odds suggest is virtually a dead heat. As only one poll in the last four weeks would see Labour holding this seat on UNS I think the SNP have a very good chance of gaining this.