Labour gain Southmead as Lib Dems slip to third

Labour were celebrating a gain in Bristol last night as they took a seat in the Southmead ward from the Liberal Democrats. To add insult to injury the Lib Dems were pushed to a poor third behind the Conservatives, who appear to have ran a strong campaign in this by-election. Elsewhere, an Independent comfortably won a ward in North Somerset, replacing another Independent, and the Tories easily held a seat in Essex.

I'll start in Bristol where the Liberal Democrats made an unsuccessful defence of a seat in Southmead. The vacancy arose following the resignation of Cllr. Jacqueline Bowles due to ill health. It was a seat the Lib Dems snatched in 2009 when Labour in the doldrums so it seemed likely this would switch back. Bowles' margin of victory in 2009 was only 20 votes and a year later Labour easily held the other seat in Southmead on the General Election turnout.

Brenda Massey comfortably won the seat for Labour and she increased her party's share of the vote by 5.1% on last year's election. Although that was expected, the strength of the Conservative vote in this by-election came as a surprise. They managed to increase their vote share by 10.7% on the 2010 result, pushing the Liberal Democrats into a disappointing third. The Lib Dem vote was down 12.2% from last year and 17.1% on their victory in 2009.

During the naughties the Conservatives were consistently ahead of the Liberal Democrats in Southmead, which was a pretty safe Labour ward before they started to really struggle electorally in the later part of the last Parliament. Despite this the Tories found it difficult to get more that 25% of the vote and so their performance in this by-election is quite impressive.

The Liberal Democrats have been running Bristol as a minority administration since this May's elections and this result is unlikely to change this. The next partial council elections are due to take place in 2013.

Bristol City Council
LD		Lab			Con			Grn
32	-1	22	-		14	-		2		-
Southmead
By-Election Candidate				Votes			Vote %		+/-
Brenda Massey (E)				1109			45.5%		+5.1%
Rondo Brace				765			31.4%		+10.7%
Barry Cash				365			15.0%		-12.2%
Chris Millman				120			4.9%		+2.3%
Stephen Wright				77			3.2%		+0.6%

There was another by-election taking place last night just down the road from Bristol in Backwell, North Somerset. The vacancy was caused by the death of Independent Councillor Tom Collinson, who had won first his seat in 2007. Previous to that it had been a solid Conservative ward but Collinson, along with his running mate, changed that and the two Independents easily held their seats in May.

The sole Independent running in this by-election Geoff Coombs was endorsed by the sitting Independent and also happens to be the Chair of a Parish Council within the ward. All that, combined with the fact he was the only candidate who lived in the ward, made Coombs favourite to win this rural by-election and he didn't disappoint. Coombs received over 60% of the vote and there was little to suggest the Conservatives will be challenging for this seat anytime soon. Labour and the Liberal Democrats both fielded candidates when they didn't in May and neither made much of an impression.

The Conservatives have a huge majority on North Somerset Council with the next all-out elections due to take place in 2015.

Backwell (North Somerset)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Geoff Coombs (E)	816	61.7%	-5.6%
Peter Burden	314	23.7%	-8.9%
Terry Connell	124	9.4%	+9.4%
Nick Alderton	69	5.2%	+5.2%

The other by-election taking place yesterday was across the country in Essex. The vacancy in the Stock division was caused by the disqualification of the former Conservative Leader of the Council Lord Hanningfield as he was sentenced to nine months on jail for false accounting. He had claimed £14,000 for overnight stays in London when he was anywhere but, and the disgraced peer was finally ousted from the County Council when his appeal against the conviction was rejected.

Despite the fact the Conservatives had suspended Lord Hanningfield's membership when he was charged there was a chance his actions would affect their performance in this by-election. As it was they held the seat with ease and Ian Grundy's victory represented just 5% drop in vote share compared to the 2009 election. What was interesting in this by-election was the strong performance from UKIP, who polled 24% from nowhere. Given that we have generally seen their vote drop when compared to 2009 results, which took place on the same day as the European Union elections, it is interesting that they didn't field a candidate two years ago.

The Conservatives enjoy a large majority on Essex County Council with the next all out election due to take place in 2013.

Stock (Essex)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Ian Grundy (E)	1820	59.3%	-6.5%
Kesse Pryke	736	24.0%	+24.0%
Marian Elsden	160	5.2%	-7.3%
Maurice Austin	275	9.0%	+3.7%
Reza Hossain	80	2.6%	-6.1%

 

Tom Harris

By-Election Preview (8th September)

There are three by-elections taking place tomorrow, including two barely 10 miles apart from each other. The Liberal Democrats are defending Southmead, Bristol whilst just south west of the city a vacancy in Backwell, North Somerset will be filled. The third contest is taking place in Essex where the Conservatives will be hoping the disqualification of a peer jailed for fiddling his Parliamentary expenses doesn't prevent them from holding the seat.

I'll start in Bristol where a currently split ward is up for grabs. The by-election in the Southmead ward is taking place following the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor Jacqueline Bowles due to ill health. She won her seat in 2009 by just 20 votes, ousting the sitting Labour Councillor in the process. A year later Labour comfortably won the other seat in the ward, with the General Election turnout working against the Lib Dems.

Given the drop in support for the Liberal Democrats since last May it will be a tough ask for them to hold this seat tomorrow. The 2009 result was a blip in what is general a solidly Labour ward and with this by-election it is likely to revert back to form.

The contest has sparked controversy locally as a row over a Liberal Democrat leaflet has broken out. In it the Lib Dems attack the Labour leader in Bristol, who coincidently was the former Southmead Councillor beaten by Bowles, with apparently little say about candidates running in the by-election.

The result of the by-election is unlikely to affect control of the Council as the Liberal Democrats currently run Bristol as a minority administration. Of course, losing another seat, on top of the five in May, will not help the Lib Dems with the next partial Council election due to take place in 2013.

Bristol City Council
LD	Lab	Con		Grn		Vac
32	21	14		2		1
Southmead
By-Election Candidate			2010		2009
Brenda Massey (Lab)			40.4%		31.4%
Barry Cash (LD)			27.2%		32.1%
Rondo Brace (Con)			20.7%		18.9%
N/C (BNP)			6.5%		0.0%
Chris Millman (Grn)			2.6%		6.2%
Stephen Wright (ED)			2.5%		11.4%

Despite being within 10 miles of each other geographically Southmead, Bristol and Backwell, North Somerset couldn't be further apart politically. Whilst the former is a working class urban ward the latter would a safe Conservative seat but for a strong Independent presence in recent years. The by-election in Backwell is taking place following the death of Independent Councillor Tom Collinson, who had won first his seat in 2007. With a particular focus on planning and highways issues Collinson, along with his running mate, secure two gains from the Tories which they successfully defended in 2011.

The Independent standing in the by-election Geoff Coombs has been endorsed by the other sitting Independent in Backwell and is the strong favourite to replace Collinson. Coombs is not only the Chairman of a Parish Council within the ward but he is also the only candidate who lives there. It seems fairly unlikely any of the political parties will be able to make a successful challenge against such a strong Independent.

Even if this by-election produces an upset the political balance of North Somerset is unlikely to be affected. The Conservatives enjoy a huge majority on the Council with the next full elections due to take place in 2015.

Backwell (North Somerset)
By-Election Candidate	2011
Geoff Coombs (Ind)	67.3%
Peter Burden (Con)	32.7%
Terry Connell (Lab)	0.0%
Nick Alderton (LD)	0.0%

The other by-election taking place this week is in Essex and the vacancy was caused by a fairly unusual reason. The Parliamentary Expenses scandal caused a Westminster by-election and countless MPs chose not to face re-election last year but the fate of one former Conservative Lord has resulted in a Council by-election. Lord Hanningfield had claimed up to £14,000 for overnight stays in London when he wasn't actually in the capital. Not only did the former shadow Business spokesman hold a seat in the Upper House of Parliament but also represented the Stock division on Essex County Council, as well as being the Council leader when he was charged in February last year.

Hanningford would have been disqualified from his Council seat when he was sentenced to 9 months in prison for false accounting but as he appealed against his conviction he was still technically a Councillor. Despite calls to resign he stuck it out, angering many in the local area as he was still claiming his Councillors allowance until the Council voted to suspend it. When his appeal was finally rejected a date was set to replace the disgraced ex-Tory peer.

Whilst all this may hurt the Conservatives in this by-election Cameron suspended Hanningford party membership when he was charged last February. As such he has spent the last year or so sat as an Independent and the local Tories will be hoping this will distance them from unsavoury circumstances leading this by-election. Their main advantage in this by-election is that it is difficult to see where a challenge will come from given that the Liberal Democrats were second in 2009 with just 12.5% of the vote. The Conservatives are likely to hang on to this almost by default.

The Conservatives enjoy a huge majority on Essex County Council so a surprise defeat will not affect the political balance. The next full Council elections are due to take place in 2013.

Stock (Essex)
By-Election Candidate	2009
Ian Grundy (Con)	65.7%
Marian Elsden (LD)	12.5%
Reza Hossain (Grn)	8.7%
N/C (BNP)	7.8%
Maurice Austin (Lab)	5.2%
Kesse Pryke (UKIP)	0.0%

By-Election Preview (11th August)

There are three by-elections taking place this week, all of which are in the south of England. Labour are defending, on paper at least, a three way marginal in Islington whilst the Conservatives are looking to hold a safe ward in Windsor & Maidenhead. The third contest is further west in North Devon where a fledgling Independent Group are looking to hang onto a seat they gained in May.

We'll start in London where, in the midst of the recent civil unrest, residents of the St Peter's ward will head to the polls today. The ward borders Hackney and so the rioting is sure to be at the forefront of voter's minds today. The vacancy has arisen following the resignation of Labour Councillor Shelly Coupland, who was charged with benefit fraud and stood down to clear her name. Coupland was in receipt of benefits as carer for her mother but she apparently did not declare her election, and subsequent allowance, to the Department of Work & Pensions.

Even before the events of the last few days the by-election was hard fought. Ken Livingston was campaigning against cuts to the Police here two weeks ago; an issue that will be in sharp focus at the ballot box today. Interestingly, Boris Johnson lives in this ward and Livingston will surely enjoy a victory in his rival's back yard, regardless of the fact Labour should beat the Tories here anyway. In fact, the Conservatives were third in St Peters last year and currently do not have a Councillor elected in Islington. The Liberal Democrats are Labour's main competition in this ward where the held all three seats as recently as 2006. Their candidate for this by-election stood in 2010 and came sixth, some 500 votes from the third placed Labour candidate.

Whatever the outcome of this by-election, Labour will continue to enjoy a large majority in Islington with the next full Council elections due in 2014.

St Peter's (Islington)
By-Election Candidate	2010
Alice Perry (Lab)	35.0%
David Sant (LD)	29.4%
Richard Bunting (Con)	26.3%
Caroline Allen (Grn)	9.3%
Martin Rutherford (Ind)	-

The by-election for the Fremington ward in North Devon is certainly and interesting one, albeit one in which the result should not be extrapolated to any national significance. The Conservatives easily beat the Liberal Democrats to the two seats here in 2007 but both Tories Councillors were ousted in spectacular fashion this May by a local Independent Group. The 'New Wave Independent Group' (NWIG) was only formed in February in response to 'feuds' on Fremington Parish Council and the group won four seats in the District elections.

Following this initial success the group faces a test in this by-election. The vacancy was caused by the resignation of Cllr. Joanne Bell who felt she could not continue in the role because of a long term illness. Not an unusual reason for a resignation but one usually seen during the latter stages of a term as opposed to just two months into one. I imagine the question of whether Bell should have stood in the first place has been raised during the campaign by her opponents.

I believe that Chris Turner is the de facto NWIG candidate in this by-election and his strongest challenge is sure to come from the Conservatives, who have selected one of the former Councillors defeated in May. The other Independent is also a Parish Councillor and came fifth here in May. Despite the fact they are the largest group on the Council the Conservatives do not control North Devon. The Liberal Democrats lead a coalition with the three Independent Groups and the Tories would like to cut their five seat majority with a win in this by-election. Full Council elections are due to take place in 2015.

North Devon Council
Con	LD	NWIG	IG	NDFG		Ind	Vac
18	14	3	3	3		1	1
Fremington
By-Election Candidate					2011
Chris Turner (NWIG)					61.2%
John Gill (Con)					18.5%
Tony Wood (Ind)					11.4%
N/C (LD)					8.9%
Neil Basil (Grn)					-

The final by-election taking place today is for the Eton & Castle ward in Windsor & Maidenhead. The vacancy has arisen due to the resignation of Conservative Councillor Liam Maxwell, who has been appointed as a Government advisor. Maxwell easily won his seat in May securing almost two thirds of the vote in the process. The Tories gained fourteen seats from the Liberal Democrats in Windsor & Maidenhead in this year's all out elections and they now hold 50 of the 57 seats on the Council. Needless to say a Conservative hold is likely.

Eton & Castle (Windsor & Maidenhead)
By-Election Candidate	2011
Adam Demeter (Con)	65.2%
George Fussey (LD)	27.8%
George Davidson (Lab)	7.0%
John-Paul Rye (UKIP)	-

 

Tom Harris

Lib Dems win another by-election

The Liberal Democrats were celebrating their second principal authority by-election win in eight days as they gained the South Petherton division in Somerset from the Conservatives on Thursday. This follows their victory in Warrington last week where they held a ward they had lost to Labour in the 2010 and 2011 elections.

The vacancy in South Petherton was caused by the resignation of Conservative Councillor Anne Larpent, who is moving to Australia because of her husband's career. She won her seat in 2009 by a 94 vote margin but the Liberal Democrats attracted more support here than the Tories in this May's District Council elections. Paul Maxwell built on that performance to take the seat comfortably with a majority of 390 votes.

The win not only represented a 9.4% swing from the 2009 election but a swing of approximately 7% from the District elections just three months ago. Although the Liberal Democrats have won two by-elections since their disastrous May 5^th the previous victories were aided by controversial circumstances hindering their opponents. As far as I can tell there was no such help for the Lib Dems in this victory, which would indicate the 2011 elections may well have been the low point for the party. It has always been quite clear that their support has held up a lot better in areas where they have a strong local presence (this division is in David Laws' Yeovil constituency) and party activists must be buoyed by the fact that with a good campaign they can still win these marginal by-elections.

The Conservatives still enjoy an eight seat majority on Somerset County Council which they should hold until the next elections in 2013.

South Petherton (Somerset)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Paul Maxwell (E)	1333	53.6%	+13.3%
Paul Thompson	943	37.9%	-5.4%
Ian Greenfield	108	4.3%	-2.8%
Godfrey Davey	104	4.2%	+4.2%
N/C (Ind)	0	0.0%	-9.2%

In minor by-election news we heard that the Liberal Democrats also won a seat on Aberystwyth Town Council. The circumstances were a bit strange as the vacancy was caused by the resignation of a Councillor who was elected as a Lib Dem, resigned from the party, resigned from the Council and then contested the resulting by-election as an Independent! I'll send you over to Mark Cole's blog to read more about that result.

 

Tom Harris

By-Election Preview (4th August)

There is just one by-election taking place tomorrow but to keep us all entertained it should be a close one. The South Petherton division on Somerset County Council is vacant following the resignation of Conservative Councillor Anne Larpent, who is moving to Australia because of her husband's career. Larpent's gained the seat from the Liberal Democrats in 2009 with a victory margin of 94 votes but it will be tough for the Tories to hold this seat tomorrow. The division covers the South Petherton and Eggwood wards on the South Somerset District Council and in May, despite their generally poor performance, the Lib Dems received a slightly higher share of the vote than the Conservatives across the two wards.

Both the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates for this by-election won District seats in this division earlier this year. Paul Thompson topped the poll for the Conservatives in the two-member South Petherton whilst Paul Maxwell held Eggwood for the Liberal Democrats. Interestingly, the Green candidate in this by-election contested this division in 2009 as an Independent despite the fact the Greens were also standing.

The Conservatives hold a comfortable majority in Somerset so although losing this seat would be disappointing they should keep control of the County Council until the next all out elections take place in 2013.

South Petherton (Somerset)
By-Election Candidate	2009
Paul Thompson (Con)	43.3%
Paul Maxwell (LD)	40.3%
N/C (Ind)	9.2%
Ian Greenfield (Grn)	7.2%
Godfrey Davey (UKIP)	-

Labour come from 4th to take seat in Gloucestershire

For the second time in a month Labour have gained a seat from the Conservatives in a ward where they were way off the pace in the 2009 County Council elections. Three weeks ago they produced a shock in Cornwall and last night's impressive performance was again in the South West; Gloucestershire. The Tories held the Stroud District Council seat that was also up for grabs.

The two vacancies were caused by the death of Conservative Councillor Stephen Glanfield, who held the Rodborough County seat as well as the Amberley & Woodchester ward on Stroud DC. The County by-election was always likely to be the closest with the Liberal Democrats very close to beating the Tories here in 2009. The two frontrunners had selected District Councillors from the ward but they were both beaten by Labour Brian Oosthuysen, who took his party from fourth place to win by just 3 votes. Oosthuysen is hardly a political novice himself as he chairs Stroud CLP, but however you look at it a 20% increase in vote share is pretty impressive. Labour took votes from all three of their competitors, although the Greens suffered the most with an 11% drop. The Tories and the Lib Dems lost 4% and 5% respectively, but more importantly an election they thought they had a great chance of winning. Oosthuysen becomes Labour's fifth County Councillor in Gloustershire with the next full elections due in 2013.

Rodborough (Gloucestershire)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Brian Oosthuysen (E)	793	31.7%	+19.4%
Nigel Cooper	790	31.6%	-3.7%
Christine Headley	660	26.4%	-4.9%
Phil Blomberg	260	10.4%	-10.7%

The District by-election result was quite boring in comparison. There were no shocks here as Rhiannon Wigzell easily held Amberley & Woodchester for the Conservatives with virtually the same vote share Glanfield managed in 2008. The Greens came second in that election but as they did not field a candidate for this contest their vote was divided between Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

Amberly & Woodchester (Stroud)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Rhiannon Wigzell (E)	366	54.9%	+0.5%
Jo Smith	177	26.5%	+10.8%
Adrian Walker-Smith	124	18.6%	+6.8%
N/C (GRN)	-	-	-18.1%

The third by-election taking place last night was in Angus, Scotland but they only started counting an hour ago. I'll pop up another post in the evening for that result.