Barnsley Central wasn’t the only by-election Labour won on Thursday…

Understandably, the focus yesterday was on Labour's win in Barnsley Central; and the Liberal Democrats poor showing. However, Labour's performance in Thursday's Council by-elections was arguably a more impressive. Not only did they hold both the seats they were defending with increased majorities but they gained a seat each from the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru. The Tories managed to defend the final seat without any fuss.

The big result of the night was clearly in Cardiff. The by-election for the Riverside ward took place following the resignation of Plaid Cymru Councillor Gwenllian Lansdown, who is moving to Powys after her recent marriage. The Welsh Nationalists selected 'Mr Riverside' as their candidate and they had a healthy notional lead so they looked good value to hang on to this seat. As it was Labour managed an, almost direct, 14% swing to comfortably win the by-election. Iona Jordan received just under half the vote as she recorded a 601 vote majority. The result will not help the current Liberal Democrat/Plaid coalition in charge of Cardiff as their majority is cut to just five in the 75 seat Council.

Cardiff Council
LD		CON		LAB			PC			IND
34	-	17	-	14		+1	6		-1	4		-
Riverside
By-Election Candidate					Votes			Vote %			+/-
Iona Gordon (E)					1700			46.8%			+14.4%
Steve Garrett					1099			30.3%			-13.6%
James Roach					369			10.2%			-2.0%
Yvan Maurel					277			7.6%			+7.6%
Gwilym Owen					187			5.1%			-6.4%

Labour also recorded an impressive gain in Wigan as they took a seat from the Conservatives. The vacancy for the Wigan Central ward arose following the resignation of Cllr. Henry Cadman due to ill health, although the Council had already voted against extending his sick leave anyway. In 2008 Cadman was comfortably elected but things have not gone well for the Conservatives in this ward since then. One of Cadman's fellow Tory Councillors in this ward Gareth Fairhurst broke away from the party in 2009 to form an Independent group and last May he stood for re-election as a 'Wigan Independent Conservative'. As a result, Labour were able to gain the seat as the Tory vote split between their current and former candidates. Fairhurst stood again in this by-election and the same thing happened again. This time, however, the winning Labour candidate Laurence Hunt out-polled the combined Conservative plus Independent Conservative vote total, thanks largely to the absence of a BNP candidate. This indicates the Tories are going to struggle to hold their final seat in this ward when it is contested in May regardless of whether Fairhurst stands again. This gain adds another seat to Labour's handsome majority on Wigan Council.

Wigan Central (Wigan)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Lawrence Hunt (E)	1165	48.6%	+6.4%
Robin Gibson	652	27.2%	+1.2%
Gareth Fairhurst	393	16.4%	-2.2%
Keith Jones	189	7.9%	-0.2%
N/C (BNP)	0	0.0%	-5.2%

Unsurprisingly the Labour candidate Brenden Ryan in the Walkden North, Salford MBC by-election won easily, securing almost three quarters of the vote in the process. The collapse in the Liberal Democrat vote was the most notable aspect of this contest as they lost 14% of their vote share from last May to come last with just 62 votes. In First-Past-The-Post losing heavily isn't necessarily a bad thing if you win small in the important seats. The Liberal Democrats are getting very good at the former; we'll have to wait until 5^th May to see if they can manage the latter.

We here at Britain-Votes.co.uk like a good Scottish by-election for the simple reason that AV results are far more interesting from a psephological perspective than FPTP. So imagine our disappointment when the Kilpartick, West Dunbartonshire by-election, caused by the resignation of Labour Councillor Margaret Bootland for health reasons, was won on first preferences alone! The Labour candidate Lawrence O'Neill received just over 60% of the first preferences and so the count ended after just one round. To be fair, we weren't expected any different considering Labour received over half the first preferences in 2007 and are riding higher in the polls compared to that election. In that respect, the Scottish National Party will be relatively pleased their vote share held steady and Labour didn't pull too far away. They will be hoping this will be repeated in the Scottish Parliament elections in two months time, although as there wasn't a Liberal Democrat candidate in this ward for Labour to take votes from that may be wishful thinking. The win takes Labour back up to 8 Councillors in this 22 seat Council, just one behind the SNP who are running West Dunbartonshire as a minority group.

Finally, the Conservatives easily held March North, Cambridgeshire County Council. The by-election was taking place following the death of Cllr. John West, who secured over 55% of the vote in 2009. Steve County won with a marginally reduced vote share from the last election, but the main story again was the drop in the Liberal Democrat vote. They lost 7% of their vote share from two years ago as Labour pipped them into second place by 5 votes. I'm sure very few will envy anyone standing for the Liberal Democrats in Council elections this May as they seem set to drop back across the country. The Tories have a comfortable majority in Cambridgeshire and full council elections are not due until 2013.

Walkden North (Salford)					March North (Cambridgeshire)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-		By-Election Candidate	Votes		Vote %		+/-
Brenden Ryan (E)	1291	72.6%	+21.6%		Steve County (E)	616		52.4%		-3.4%
Chris Bates	209	11.7%	-10.2%		Louis Sugden	282		24.0%		+10.3%
Laurence Depares	125	7.0%	-2.7%		William McAdam	277		23.6%		-6.9%
Keith Fairhurst	92	5.2%	+5.2%
Susan Carson	62	3.5%	-14.0%

 

West Dunbartonshire Council
SNP		LAB			IND			SSP
9	-	8	-		4	-		1		-
Kilpatrick
By-Election Candidate				Votes			Vote %		+/-
Lawrence O'Neill (E)				1382			60.1%		+4.2%
Frank NcNiff				758			32.9%		+0.1%
Douglas Boyle				161			7.0%		-1.3%
N/C (SSP)				0			0.0%		-3.0%

Labour HOLD Barnsley Central

Labour have held Barnsley Central with a big increase in their vote share from last May. Dan Jarvis received almost five times as many votes than his nearest challenger and he replaces Eric Illsley as the new Labour MP for this constituency. UKIP are celebrating a surprise second place as they beat both coalition partners comfortably. This by-election was a disaster for the Liberal Democrats as they lost their deposit and slipped into sixth place.

By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Dan Jarvis (LAB)	14724	60.8%	+13.5%
Jane Collins (UKIP)	2953	12.2%	+7.5%
James Hockney (CON)	1999	8.3%	-9.0%
Enis Dalton (BNP)	1463	6.0%	-2.9%
Tony Devoy (IND)	1266	5.2%	+3.6%
Dominic Carman (LD)	1012	4.2%	-13.1%
Kevin Riddiough (ED)	544	2.2%	+2.2%
Howling Laud Hope (OMRL)	198	0.8%	+0.8%
Michael Val Davies (IND)	60	0.2%	+0.2%

Clearly the big news from this by-election is the Liberal Democrats failing to reach the 5% threshold to keep their deposit. Not only did they slip behind the Conservatives but UKIP, the BNP and an Independent candidate as well! It seemed quite clear that the Lib Dems weren't exactly pulling out the stops in this contest but few were predicting a result as poor as this for Clegg's party. They held onto less than a sixth of their voters from last May, which is going to be very hard to spin whichever way you look at it. The only silver lining they can take from this is that in the two Parliamentary by-elections this year their vote held up when they had a chance of winning but dropped sharply when they were clearly also-rans. If this was replicated in a General Election, or even in this May's devolved assemblies and Council elections, they would hold more seats than a uniform swing model would predict.

The Conservatives will not be too pleased with the result either. Getting comfortably beaten to second place by UKIP doesn't look good for Cameron, who is already under pressure from the right wing of his party. Nothing should be taken away from UKIP's performance though as they recorded their best ever Parliamentary by-election result. Whether this is a blip or, as their leader Nigel Farage suggested at the count, they are truly broadening their appeal remains to be seen. It is clear that they are benefiting from the Conservatives leading a coalition Government, and they have an excellent opportunity to make a significant breakthrough in British politics during the next four years.

As for Labour, an 11700 vote majority is clearly cause for celebration, especially considering the turnout was a measly 36.4%. Jarvis' win represents a solid recovery in this constituency from the low point Illsley dragged his party to here last May. Labour's vote share was very similar to what they achieved in 2005 when they recorded a 66 seat majority. I doubt we'll be hearing any suggestions of a snap election anytime soon…!

Of course, when all the dust has settled on this by-election Labour will still have 258 seats, and won't be in power. If anything, the coalition parties will be more inclined to dig in and see out a full term as an early election would not go well for them. As for the more immediate elections in May - things are looking pretty good for Labour!

A Round-Up of the five Council by-elections will be up by Saturday morning. Labour did pretty well in those too, gaining two seats; one from the Conservatives, one from Plaid Cymru. Tune in tomorrow for updates on the Welsh Referendum result with Harry Hayfield.

Looking ahead to more Parliamentary by-elections, there still hasn't been a writ moved for the Belfast West vacancy, caused by Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams' resigning to stand in the Republic of Ireland General Election which took last week. We will also find out very soon if Sir Peter Soulsby has been selected as Labour's candidate for the Leicester Mayoral contest this May. If he is there is likely to be a vacancy in his Leicester South constituency. I believe the result for that selection will be known on Saturday…

“Super Thursday” is here!!!

If you are familiar with American politics then you should be versed in the importance of 'Super Tuesday'. Over here we don't generally get big election nights outside the first week of May but tonight is about as close as we will get! With the variety of elections taking place today we will get a timely insight into how the 5^th May will pan out, with actual votes as opposed to opinion polls.

The big vote is taking place in Wales where they are holding a national referendum on whether to extend the law making powers of the Assembly. Opinion polls are showing a big lead for YES which is in line with the received wisdom on issue. The step is a rather small one and in many ways probably doesn't require the effort of a referendum. As one is taking place there is something to look out for us politicos. Referendum on a technical political issue, hasn't really captured the nation, low turnout expected…sound familiar? As Mike Smithson points out, this referendum could indicate what how low turnout for the Alternative Vote ballot will be in areas with no council or devolved legislature elections taking place on the same day. This is quite important as, in general, more important elections are taking place in regions which sway towards YES where as in many rural areas the referendum is the only thing to go to the polling station for. We will have to wait until tomorrow for news on that as they are not counting until the morning.

Elsewhere we have the Parliamentary by-election in Barnsley Central, which is almost certainly going to return a Labour MP with a significantly increased majority. The battle for the minor placings is quite interesting though as a Survation* poll at the weekend showed the Liberal Democrats falling from second to fourth and barely saving their deposit. In the grand scheme of things I'm not convinced this will be as big an embarrassment as some are suggesting but I for one am intrigued to see how low they go. At least they're starting the expectations game in the best position!

Finally we have a handy mix of Council by-elections. There are vacancies in Wales and Scotland ahead of their devolved national assembly elections in May. There are also two seats up for grabs in North West Metropolitan Boroughs which will also host partial Council elections in two months time. Finally there is a relatively straightforward by-election in Cambridgeshire.

So there we have it. If I have managed to sell this to you as an exciting night worth following then I should probably suggest a way to keep up to date. We will be live tweeting from @BritainVotes from 10pm onwards, and (to my knowledge) you don't need to sign up to twitter to view a feed. So if that bit of self promotion didn't put you we'll see you all in an hour or so!

* Survation have kindly cross-posted our article on the Barnsley Central by-election to their blog.

By-Election Preview (3rd March)

After a week off we are back with a bang this Thursday! Not only do we have the Barnsley Central by-election and the Welsh Referendum tomorrow there are also no less than five Council vacancies to fill. They are a mixed bag as well with a couple for North West Metropolitan Authorities along with local by-elections in Scotland, Wales and Cambridgeshire. Labour and the Conservatives are defending two seats each with Plaid Cymru hoping to hold the other. Labour could pick up that seat from Plaid and they have an excellent change of relieving the Tories' of one of theirs.

I'll start in Wales where Plaid Cymru are defending the Riverside ward in Cardiff. The by-election is taking place following the resignation of Cllr. Gwenllian Lansdown, who is moving to Powys after her recent marriage. She was joint top in the 2008 poll as Plaid comfortably won all three seats in this multi-member ward ahead of Labour. It will take a 5.7% swing for Labour to gain this tomorrow and given the party's recent performances in by-elections this is certainly possible. However, Plaid took approximately 45% of the vote at the last election and they have selected 'Mr Riverside' as their candidate. It won't be easy for Labour to take this but they do have added incentive. The Liberal Democrats run Cardiff with Plaid as their junior partners and between them they currently hold 40 of the 75 seats. With just over a year until the next full elections it would be a blow to the local coalition if Labour won tomorrow.

Cardiff Council
LD	CON	LAB	PC	IND	VAC
34	17	13	6	4	1
Riverside (Cardiff)
By-Election Candidate				2008
Steve Garrett (PC)				43.9%
Iona Gordon (LAB)				32.4%
James Roach(CON)				12.2%
Gwilym Owen (LD)				11.5%
Yvan Maurel (GRN)				-

In Wigan Labour have much better chance of picking up a seat, this time at the expense of the Conservatives. The vacancy for the Wigan Central ward arose following the resignation of Cllr. Henry Cadman due to ill health, although the Council had already voted against extending his sick leave anyway. Cadman won his seat in 2008 with over half the vote but things have gone downhill for the Conservatives here since then. One of Cadman's fellow Tory Councillors in this ward Gareth Fairhurst broke away from the party in 2009 to form a four-strong Independent group with his father, wife and sister. When Fairhurst's term ended last May he stood for re-election as a 'Wigan Independent Conservative'. This spectacularly split the right of centre vote with the official Tory candidate allowing Labour to comfortably gain the seat. Fairhurst is standing again, as is the same Tory candidate from last year. With the Conservative vote set to split yet again Labour must be quite confident of adding another seat to their handsome majority in Wigan. Their only fear would be if the right leaning voters get behind one candidate and Farihurst is, naturally, hoping they back his Independent challenge.

Wigan Central (Wigan)
By-Election Candidate	2010	2008	2007
Lawrence Hunt (LAB)	42.2%	30.4%	33.1%
Robin Gibson (CON)	25.9%	50.5%	44.3%
Gareth Fairhurst (IND-CON)	18.6%	-	-
Keith Jones (UKIP)	8.1%	12.2%	-
N/C (BNP)	5.2%	-	6.3%
N/C (Community Action)	-	6.9%	6.9%
N/C (LD)	-	-	9.5%

The other seat the Conservatives are defending should be a lot easier to hang on to. March North, Cambridgeshire County Council is vacant following the death of Cllr. John West, who secured over 55% of the vote in 2009. The Liberal Democrats were quite a way back in second and they are more likely to drop away than take the seat. Having said that, they were close here in 2005 and they did produce a surprise gain a fortnight ago so I guess anything is technically possible! Even if there is a shock result tomorrow night the Tories will still comfortably control the Council.

There are few examples of Labour failing to defend a seat since the General Election so the by-elections in West Dunbartonshire and Salford should be straightforward holds for the party. As usual, we are mildly excited by the prospect of an AV by-election in Scotland but sadly this one isn't likely to show off the election system we could be using at the next General Election.

The vacancy for the Kilpatrick ward in West Dunbartonshire was caused by the resignation of Labour Councillor Margaret Bootland for health reasons. Both Labour candidates passed the quota on first preferences in 2007 so there is a strong likelihood that only one round of counting will take place. Third and final seat was taken by the SNP but the disparity between vote totals of the elected candidate and his running mate is particularly interesting. Cllr. Jim Finn received 1092 first preferences but the other SNP candidate Frank McNiff only managed 403, which suggests that Finn enjoys a significant personal vote in this ward. The nationalists have selected McNiff as their candidate for this by-election so they actually have even more work to do than the previous result (below) would suggest. The Council is currently run by a minority SNP administration and Labour will hold just one seat less than nationalists if they win tomorrow.

Finally, the by-election for Walkden North, Salford MBC is taking place following the death of Labour Councillor Vincent Devine. He comfortably held his seat in 2008 and as Labour consistently won in this ward during the latter part of the last Government they shouldn't have a problem tomorrow. In the unlikely event they lost Labour would still have a huge majority on the Council.

March North (Cambridgeshire)			Walkden North (Salford)
By-Election Candidate	2009		By-Election Candidate	2010	2008	2007
Steve County (CON)	55.8%		Brenden Ryan (LAB)	50.9%	47.3%	49.6%
William McAdam (LD)	30.5%		Chris Bates (CON)	21.9%	34.6%	26.9%
Louis Sugden (LAB)	13.7%		Susan Carson (LD)	17.4%	18.1%	12.3%
			Laurence Depares (ED)	9.7%	0.0%	0.0%
			N/C (UKIP)	0.0%	0.0%	11.2%
			Keith Fairhurst (BNP)	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

West Dunbartonshire Council
SNP	LAB	IND	SSP		VAC
9	7	4	1		1
Kilpatrick
By-Election Candidate				2007
Lawrence O'Neill (LAB)				55.9%
Frank NcNiff (SNP)				32.8%
Douglas Boyle (CON)				8.3%
N/C (SSP)				3.0%

Ireland Votes: The Results

I was hoping to comment on this sooner, but I’ve been very busy the last few days. I wrote my Irish election guide last week and of course the election happened on Friday and results were pretty much finalised Monday. I was hoping to write big article covering the results but frankly Gael L’Hermine of the wonderful World Elections blog has posted a typically excellent analysis so go read that.

As for the outcome itself, Fine Gael and Labour were already making cooing noises at each other on Saturday, the animosity of the last year or so forgotten as it became clear that there was no reasonable alternative to a coalition between what are now the largest two parties. Fine Gael has almost twice as many seats as Labour though and as such this is going to be a very Fine Gael orientated government. Fine Gael did not achieve its aim of winning enough seats to form a single party government, but it has won enough seats that it will be clearly the senior partner in this coalition, and like the Lib Dems here Labour is bound to suffer in coalition (the party has always historically tended to be quite bad at being a junior coalition partner). The government will probably be formed quite quickly – Labour is holding a special conference on Saturday, and the new government will be anxious to kick caretaker Taoiseach Brian Cowen out and take their ministerial places.

Electorally there has been a revolution. Fianna Fail has suffered by far its worst result ever, whereas Fine Gael, Labour and Sinn Fein all achieved record results. The Green Party was wiped out of parliament. My suspicion is it will return eventually, in some form or another.

There are several groups that may be the beginnings of new political parties. The United Left Alliance is the most obvious – achieving five seats, the ULA had a decent performance and will likely increase cooperation to the point of a merger into a new party, providing a home for left-of-Labour voters who dislike Sinn Fein’s Republicanism. Additionally a smattering of right-wing independents were elected on a broadly populist, economically liberal platform. They may choose to form a party to occupy the right-of-FG/FF space which has been vacant since the dissolution of the Progressive Democrats (one, Noel Grealish, is a former PD deputy leader).

My suspicion is that the new government will hold a constitutional convention. Firstly, because this is a key plank of Labour’s policy platform, secondly because Fine Gael is in broad agreement and thirdly because if FG gives Labour that then it is one less thing it has to give them elsewhere and constitutional conventions are cheap compared to social welfare or protection from taxes for the poor.

It remains to be seen what the long-term effects from this election will be, but my bet is that Irish politics will never be the same again.