Northern Ireland Votes: Mid Ulster

It may not surprise readers to learn that Mid Ulster sits pretty close to the geographic centre of Northern Ireland. The seat sits across county boundaries – in the North it takes in part of Londonderry, though the majority of the seat is in County Tyrone. Mid Ulster has a long history of being on the frontline of sectarian conflict which dates back to the 17^th century, aided by economic conflict; with the better land in this rural constituency usually held by Protestants. While there are mixed areas this is a very segregated constituency on the whole too. Demographic changes and a huge boundary change in 1997 have made this seat very Catholic however and the seat was 65% Catholic to 34% Protestant in 2001. Assuming demographic trends have continued, the seat is likely even more Catholic dominated than that. It may not be a surprise to know, therefore, that this is a very Sinn Fein dominated seat. Otherwise, the seat is a typical rural seat, fairly average economically, and with only seven towns with more than 1,000 people.

Candidate	Party	Vote	Change
Martin McGuinness	Sinn Fein	52.0%	+4.4%
Ian McCrea	DUP	14.4%	-9.1%
Tony Quinn	SDLP	14.3%	-3.2%
Sandra Overend	UUP/Con	11.0%	+0.4%
Walter Millar	TUV	7.3%	+7.3%
Ian Butler	Alliance	1.0%	+1.0%

Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness has been the MP here since 1997, and held this seat rather easily last May, increasing his already decent majority to an even bigger extent.

MLA	Party	First Pref	Round Elected
Martin McGuinness	Sinn Fein	18.2%	1
Ian McCrea	DUP	17.2%	1
Francie Molloy	Sinn Fein	14.9%	1
Michelle O'Neill	Sinn Fein	14.5%	1
Patsy McGlone	SDLP	11.2%	5
Billy Armstrong	UUP	10.8%	7

Losers	Party	First Pref	Round Eliminated
Kate Lagan	SDLP	6.2%	7
Walter Millar	UKUP	2.7%	5
Anne Forde	DUP	2.3%	6
Brendan McLaughlin	Independent (Republican Sinn Fein)	1.0%	4
Margaret Mitchell	Alliance	0.5%	4
Harry Hutchinson	Independent	0.4%	4

Overall Result

Party	Vote	Seats
Sinn Fein	47.6%	3
DUP	19.5%	1
SDLP	17.5%	1
UUP	10.8%	1
UKUP	2.7%	0
Alliance	0.5%	0

The Incumbents

Martin McGuinness (Sinn Fein) is the most powerful Sinn Fein politician in Northern Ireland, with the arguable exception of leader Gerry Adams. A former member of the IRA, it is unclear just how involved McGuinness was in the group and to what rank he climbed. He was an IRA commander in Derry but has, at times, been accused of being a powerful IRA leader, even the ‘IRA godfather of godfathers’, something he denies. What is known, however, is that he was convicted in 1973 on explosives and ammunitions charges and imprisoned for six months, declaring himself to a proud member of the IRA in the trial. Whatever the truth it has been an amazing transformation for the man to go from IRA member to Deputy First Minister. He was first involved in secret negotiations with the British government in 1972 and by the 1990s was Sinn Fein’s ‘Chief Negotiator’ for Good Friday. Since then he was Education Minister and once Sinn Fein overtook the SDLP he became Deputy First Minister. In this role he has often enjoyed high approval ratings, even positive approval amongst Unionists. A politician of McGuinness’s high standing, in a seat like this is sure to be re-elected.

Ian McCrea (DUP) replaced his father, William McCrea, as the MLA for this seat in 2007. William McCrea had moved to South Antrim, leaving this seat open for his son. He has also been a councillor in Magherafelt since 2001. While this a Nationalist dominated seat the DUP vote is more than enough to elect a MLA and fairly solid. McCrea should hold on easily.

Francie Molloy (Sinn Fein) has a fine pedigree in Republican electoral politics. During the 1981 hunger strike he was Bobby Sands’ Director of Elections. He has been a Councillor on Dungannon Council since 1985 and is the current Chairperson. He’s also been a MLA from this seat since 1998. In 2005 he was briefly suspended from the party due to disagreements on party policy regarding local council reorganisation and was accused of being an informer by DUP MP David Simpson in 2007, accusations he, of course, completely denies. Despite this the fact that he was elected in the first round in 2007, as well as a strong vote in his political base of Dungannon should be enough to see him sail to re-election.

Michelle O’Neill (Sinn Fein) was Molloy’s political adviser until she was elected as a councillor in 2005 on Dungannon council, and then elected as a MLA in 2007. She is currently serving as the council’s first female Mayor and was previously the first female mayor. O’Neill is young, bright and attractive and appears to be a rising star in the party, in fact she was nominated as ‘up and coming politician of the year’ in 2007 for the Slugger Awards. Considering the Sinn Fein strength here can counted as safe.

Patsy McGlone (SDLP). It’s taken me four MLAs to get through, but I’ve finally got to the first candidate in this seat elected on transfers rather than in the first round! McGlone is the SDLP’s deputy leader and he has been a MLA for this seat since 1998. He was also a Councillor in Cooksdown from 1993 to 2009. As a prominent SDLP politician with a strong base in the constituency and a strong SDLP vote behind him, McGlone should be perfectly fine on Election Day.

Billy Armstrong (UUP) is a veteran MLA, elected in 1998. At 67 years old it is he is standing down to retire.

The Challengers

There is only one question in Mid Ulster, and that is who will take the open UUP seat. Were the UUP standing Armstrong, I believe that the party would just about hold the seat, but given Armstrong’s retirement it is open and at risk.

The UUP’s candidate to hold the seat is Sandra Overend, a former Office Manager for Armstrong who stood as the UCUNF candidate here in 2010. She actually managed to slightly increase the UUP vote, despite a strong TUV performance, which just goes to show you shouldn’t write them off. The DUP could attempt to go for the seat, but going by their 2010 score it’s likely the TUV will simply split their vote too much, and the TUV themselves will need to substantially outperform their 2010 score to win the seat.

Finally there is the possibility of a fourth Sinn Fein MLA in the seat, but this strikes me as unlikely as well as the combined Unionist vote in this seat last May was 32.7%, more than enough to elect two MLAs, provided voters preference in a sane manner. They could also target the SDLP seat, though the SDLP vote appears too strong. That said Sinn Fein would be silly not to run a fourth candidate here as there is no apparent risk in doing so, though the chances of electing a fourth MLA are low.

This seat has had 3 Sinn Fein MLAs, 1 DUP MLA, 1 SDLP MLA and 1 UUP MLA since 1998. It is highly unlikely that this will change in my view.

Labour set for Barnsley Landslide

As we reach the final days of the Barnsley Central by-election campaign a Survation poll has shown that the Labour candidate Dan Jarvis will almost certainly replace the disgraced Eric Illsley in Parliament. As Labour have held this seat (and its predecessor) since 1935 this isn't really a surprise, however in which order the other parties line up behind the expected winner is worthy of at least a passing interest. The poll does not look very good for the Liberal Democrats and, to a lesser extent, the Conservatives. The former look set to lose a huge chunk of their vote share to Labour and the latter may well leak a few votes to UKIP.

By-Election Candidate	Poll	+/-*
Dan Jarvis (LAB)	63%	+16%
James Hockney (CON)	13%	-4%
Jane Collins (UKIP)	9%	+4%
Dominic Carman (LD)	6%	-11%
Enis Dalton (BNP)	4%	-5%
Others	5%	-

*Changes from GE2010 Result

On the face on it this LD>LAB swing is huge; 13.5% since last May. It is certainly a lot higher than a uniform swing based on current polling would show. So why is there likely to be such a big swing towards Labour in Barnsley tomorrow? The answer is linked to how poorly Labour have performed in recent elections as a result of their falling popularity and the conduct of the outgoing MP.

Labour have not only dominated this corner of the world historically, 13 years in power hasn't significantly diminished their influence locally. They control Barnsley Council and they are the only political party to hold any seats within the Barnsley Central constituency. Conversely the Liberal Democrats are virtually non-existent in the Yorkshire town. They do not hold a single seat on Barnsley Council and bar Sheffield and, to a lesser extent, Kirklees they aren't that strong in the surrounding area either. As we illustrated in the run up to the Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election strong local election performances don't necessarily translate into success at constituency level. However, it does man a party enjoys a more solid base of support for Westminster elections.

Without a strong local presence the Liberal Democrat vote in Barnsley Central is very much linked to Labour's. The Lib Dem (and Alliance) vote share in this constituency since it was established has mirrored Labour's rise and fall. As Labour recovered from their poor result in 1983 the Lib Dem/Alliance vote fell until Blair's landslide victory in 1997. That year Eric Illsley won 28000 votes, which equated to 77% of the vote share, but a combination of Labour's increasing unpopularity and Illsley's expenses controversies reduced this to 17500 votes (47%) last May. The Lib Dems increased their vote share by around 8% during the same period and, considering how weak the party is locally, this is likely to be down to Labour supporters staying at home or casting protest votes.

With Labour now in opposition, and Illsley gone, it would have been difficult for the Liberal Democrats to hang on to these voters even if they had turned down the opportunity to enter into a coalition Government with the Conservatives. As South Yorkshire is an area of the country which is unlikely to endorse the third party's decision to support the Tories, and their plans to deal with the deficit, the Lib Dems should have already prepared themselves for a pasting in this by-election.

The Conservatives should fare a little better purely because their core vote here appears larger than the Liberal Democrats'. However, the poll shows that UKIP are likely to pick up votes as Tory supporters on the right of the party look to register their own protest against the current Government. As a result the most interesting aspect of this by-election is whether the anti-EU party can pip the Lib Dems into third place. As Survation found very few people actually expressing any intent to vote for the Lib Dems (their headline 6% is thanks to the reallocation of undecideds) it would seem UKIP are the likely victors in this battle. The Liberal Democrats will have to hope their core vote in this constituency is enough to save their deposit in what is likely to be a low turnout by-election.

Assembly Poll Additional Information

After a bit of badgering of You Gov, they have published the full data of that referendum poll and whilst there is not a specific voting intention poll, it is possible to make an estimate.

The poll's main question was "How will you vote in the referendum on Thursday?" and was divided up into Con, Lab, Lib Dem and Plaid Assembly voting intentions. The figures were: 1,003 people sampled, Con 145, Lab 394, Lib Dem 46, Plaid 151 which gives a total of 736 (indicating 267 don't know's or wouldn't vote). Converting those into percentages you get Con 19.7%, Lab 53.5%, Lib Dem 6.3%, Plaid 21.9%

However, they do not list the regional element (but using the average from past polls, it is possible to make an estimate for the regional list of Con 19%, Lab 44%, Lib Dem 6%, Plaid 22%).

Therefore it cannot be really classed as an Assembly voting intention poll but if it were it would produce the following Assembly:

Constituencies: Con 3 Lab 31 Lib Dem 0 Plaid 6
Regionals: Con 9 Lab 2 Lib Dem 0 Plaid 9
Totals: Con 12 (unchanged) Lab 33 (+7) Lib Dem 0 (-6) Plaid 15 (unchanged) Others 0 (-1)

So in a definite case of "you pays your money and you takes your choice" take what information you want to from this information

By-Election Watch (01/03/11)

Here are this week's changes to the by-election page:

Council	Type	Ward	Party	Reason	Date
Highland Council	Scotland	Wick	IND Group	Resigned	7th April
Aberdeen	Scotland	Dyce/Bucksburn/Danestone	Lib Dem	Death	TBA
Amber Valley	District	Heage & Ambergate	Conservative	Resigned	TBA?

After a weekend away it will be business as usual until the May elections. The main thing we've missed has been the Barnsley by-election poll from Survation. Headline figures (with changes from GE2010) were LAB 63 (+16), CON 13 (-4), UKIP 9 (+4), LD 6 (-11), BNP 4 (-5). We'll have posts on all Thursday's elections up in the next couple of days, and live tweeting on the night.