By-Election Watch (25/07/11)

Here are this week's changes to the by-election page:

Council	Type	Ward	Defending Party	Reason	Date
Knowsley	Metro.	Page Moss	Labour	Resigned	18th Aug
Bolsover	District	Shirebrook South West	Independent	Death	25th Aug
Perth & Kinross	Scotland	Highland	SNP	Resigned	15th Sep
Fenland	District	Staithe	Conservative	Death	TBA
Stafford	District	Walton	Conservative	Death	TBA

There are five by-elections taking place this week, including one taking place on a Tuesday. We will be Live Tweeting and Blogging on both nights so tune in from 2230 and the preview of tomorrow's by-election will be up this evening.

 

Tom Harris

Two holds in this week’s by-elections

Both of this week's by-elections were held by the party defending them, although one was a lot closer than expected. Plaid Cymru narrowly won in Gwynedd (Wales) as they suffered a large drop in their vote following the inclusion of Labour and Conservative candidates in this by-election. The Tories held a seat in Wokingham (Berkshire) with a far more comfortable margin despite the fact the by-election could have been construed as unnecessary.

I'll start in Wales where the Glyder division in Gwynedd was vacant following the death of Plaid Cymru Councillor Dai Rees Jones. He had won his seat comfortably in 2008 in a straight fight with the Liberal Democrats but the Welsh Nationalists were badly affected by Labour and the Conservatives standing candidates in this contest. Plaid's vote share fell by 25% whilst the Lib Dems managed to increased theirs slightly on the last election. In fact, the Liberal Democrats lost just 3 votes from 2008 but they still fell 13 short of gaining the seat from Plaid Cymru.

The result is still encouraging for Liberal Democrats as it shows that despite the party's national woes local candidates who have built up a personal vote can still compete. Doug Madge has been their candidate here for a number of elections and his vote total has remained constant throughout. Of course, one factor that needs to be remembered is that Plaid Cymru lost the personal vote of their Councillor, which could have played a part in their significant drop in vote share.

Still,, a win is a win and this one for Plaid ensures they have a majority in Gwynedd whatever the result of the forthcoming by-election in the Diffwys & Maenofferen division. As the next full Council elections are due to take place next May they are likely to remain in charge here for at least 9 months.

Gwynedd County Council
PC		IND		LG			LD			LAB			Vac
38	-	16	-	12	-		4	-		4	-		1	-
Glyder
By-Election Candidate						Votes			Vote %			+/-
Elin Walker Jones (E)						207			39.4%			-25.1%
Doug Madge						194			36.9%			+1.3%
Jennie Lewis						65			12.4%			+12.4%
Martyn Singleton						60			11.4%			+11.4%

In the other by-election taking place yesterday the Conservatives enjoyed a far more comfortable victory in the Remenham, Wargrave & Ruscombe ward, Wokingham. The vacancy on the Unitary Authority was caused by the resignation of Conservative Councillor Claire Stretton, who has moved from the area and managed to win a seat on the nearby Windsor & Maidenhead Council two months ago. The Tories recently lost a by-election in Torbay where the Liberal Democrats managed to secure a large swing by exploiting the unnecessary circumstances of the contest but the Lib Dems could not repeat the feat in Wokingham this week.

John Halsall secured almost two thirds for the vote for his party as the Conservatives held the seat by a big margin. The result represented a 3.8% swing towards the Tories on the 2010 result, although in comparison to 2008 election the Liberal Democrats have gained ground on the Conservatives. As these are the seats up for grabs next May there may be slight cause for concern for the Conservatives but as they hold such a large majority on the Council it's unlikely they will lose it next year.

Remenham, Wargrave & Ruscombe (Wokingham)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-*
John Halsall (E)	850	65.9%	+0.6%
Martin Alder	272	21.1%	-7.1%
Matthew Dent	94	7.3%	+0.7%
Andy Heape	55	4.3%	+4.3%
Martyn Foss	19	1.5%	+1.5%

* compared to 2010 result

 

Tom Harris

By-Election Night Live: 21st July

It'll start at 10.30...ish!

By-Election Preview (21st July)

There are two local Council by-elections taking place today and they are both in what on paper are safe wards. We are back in Gwynedd (Wales) for the fifth time since the 2010 General Election, with Plaid Cymru the defending party on this occasion. Elsewhere, the Conservatives are looking to hold a seat on the Wokingham Unitary Authority (Berkshire).

I'll start in Gwynedd, who have kept us rather busy over the last 14 months and the Welsh County Council is showing no signs of abating! This latest by-election is taking place following the death of Plaid Cymru Councillor Dai Rees Jones. Jones easily won his seat three years ago with almost two thirds of the vote in a straight fight with the Liberal Democrats. For this contest both Labour and the Conservatives are fielding candidates but given Plaid's by-election record in Gwynedd over the last year this is unlikely to affect the outcome all that much. The Welsh nationalists have managed to gain two seats in by-elections a narrowly missed out on a third by four votes so it's hard to see past a Plaid Cymru win in today in what is one of their strongest areas.

Following the 2008 elections Plaid Cymru controlled Gwynedd as a minority administration but their recent by-election victories have given them a slim majority on the Council. They will have a chance to extend that in the near future as the Diffwys & Maenofferen is again vacant following the resignation of Llais Gwynedd (Voice of Gwynedd) Councillor Richard Lloyd Jones, who won his seat in a by-election barely a year ago. The next full Council elections are due to take place next May.

Gwynedd County Council
PC	IND	LG	LD	LAB		Vac
37	16	12	4	4		2
Glyder
By-Election Candidate					2008
Elin Walker Jones (PC)					64.4%
Doug Madge (LD)					35.6%
Jennie Lewis (Con)					-
Martyn Singleton (Lab)					-

The other by-election taking place today is for the Wokingham Unitary Authority and this is also likely to result in a hold. The vacancy in the Remenham, Wargrave & Ruscombe ward has arisen following the resignation of Conservative Councillor Claire Stretton, who has moved from the area and managed to win a seat on the neighbouring Windsor & Maidenhead Council two months ago. She won her Wokingham ward in emphatic style three years ago with almost three quarters of the vote and although the Tories majority dropped slightly in 2010 they are unlikely to lose this seat, despite the circumstances surrounding the vacancy. The Conservatives currently control the Council with a large majority with partial Council elections due to take place next May.

Remenham, Wargrave & Ruscombe (Wokingham)
By-Election Candidate	2010	2008
John Halsall (Con)	65.3%	74.5%
Martin Alder (LD)	28.2%	21.4%
Matthew Dent (Lab)	6.5%	4.1%
Martyn Foss (Grn)	-	-
Andy Heape (UKIP)	-	-

 

Tom Harris

By-Election Watch (18/07/11)

Here are this week's changes to the by-election page:

Council	Type	Ward	Defending Party	Reason	Date
North Ayrshire	Scotland	Saltcoats & Stevenson	Labour	Resigned	25th Aug

Not much to report tonight… and there are only two by-elections this week, so it's quite quiet all round! The now usual Live Blogging and Live Tweeting will take place on Thursday so join us then for the results when we know them.

 

Tom Harris

Tories win this week’s only by-election; Lib Dems perform surprisingly well.

There was just one by-election taking place this week and it was for the Old Catton division, Norfolk County Council. The vacancy arose following the resignation of Conservative Councillor Stuart Dunn for reasons unknown. Dunn won comfortably in 2009 as the other parties split the rest of the vote quite evenly, and the Tories' comfortable victory in the identical Broadland DC ward just 2 months ago confirmed that they were unlikely to lose this by-election.

It therefore came as not surprise that Judy Leggett held the seat for the Conservatives but the victory margin of 250 votes was smaller than expected, as was the party that margin was over. The Liberal Democrats came third behind UKIP here in 2009 and although the anti-EU party were unlikely to repeat that performance in this by-election Labour looked set to establish themselves as the main opposition to the Conservatives in Old Catton. They easily came second ahead of the Lib Dems in the Old Catton & Sprowston West ward in May but Labour were pushed back to third on Thursday, despite increasing their vote share by 10% from the 2009 election.

Thursday's result represented a 12.4% increase in the Liberal Democrats vote share from the last County Council election but, more impressively, it was a 12.5% rise from this year's District Council election. In contrast Labour's vote share fell by almost 5% despite the fact they had Shadow Cabinet members campaigning for them. The Tories also suffered from the strong Lib Dem performance but they still held the seat comfortably. They also enjoy a large majority on the County Council with the next full Council elections due to take place in 2013.

Old Catton (Norfolk)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-*
Judy Leggett (E)	664	41.6%	-7.2%
Bob Fowkes	414	25.9%	+12.4%
Chrissie Rumsby	337	21.1%	+10.3%
Glenn Tingle	107	6.7%	-9.6%
Jennifer Parkhouse	75	4.7%	-5.9%

*Changes from 2009

By-Election Night Live: 14th July

I'll be dropping in and out of this, and the count for the one by-election may not be taking place tonight, but here's a LiveBlog for your entertainment anyway!

By-Election Preview (14th July)

There is only one by-election this week and I'm afraid it's not exactly a tight marginal. The vacancy in the Old Catton division, Norfolk CC is due to the resignation of Conservative Councillor Stuart Dunn for reasons unknown. The division is just on the outskirts of Norwich and it is pretty safe for the Tories. Their dominance here has been compounded in recent years because the other parties have conspired to split the non-Tory vote. Aided by the concurrent Euro elections, UKIP came second here in 2009 with just 16.3% of the vote. The Lib Dems, Labour and the Greens all managed over 10% of the vote but Dunn won easily with a majority of 800.

If May's result in the identical Broadland District Council ward is anything to go by Labour should emerge as the most likely challengers to the Conservatives in this by-election but a gain is quite unlikely. Labour would need a swing of around 13% from that election two months ago so it would be a big upset. In any case, the Tories have a huge majority on the County Council with the next full elections due in 2013.

Old Catton (Norfolk)
By-Election Candidate	2009
Judy Leggett (Con)	48.8%
Glenn Tingle (UKIP)	16.3%
Bob Fowkes (LD)	13.5%
Chrissie Rumsby (Lab)	10.8%
Jennifer Parkhouse (Grn)	10.6%

Have we just witnessed a massive drop in turnout?

The day before and after the 1992 general election proved the power of the tabloid press when the Conservatives turned a 3% deficit in the exit poll into an 8% lead when all the votes were counted (a turn around that most experts put down to the headlines above). However, with the news that News Corp has pulled out of it's bid for the shares in BSkyB that it does not own, I worry if there will be an editorial in the Sun tomorrow (or indeed one of the other papers he owns) saying (to quote Shakespeare) "A plague o' both your houses" and refuse to endorse any party at the next general election.

According to various sources, the Sun, Times and Sunday Times have a readership of approximately 10% of thre UK electorate and I fear that if News Corp do not endorse any party at the next election, then turnout will collapse to below 2001 levels (59%) and questions will no doubt be raised about the validity of elections in the United Kingdom.

Now do not take me the wrong way, I have long been concerned about one person having too much media control (the fiction of 1984 by George Orwell swore me off that long ago) but in this day and age we still need newspapers and print media to allow people to make an educated opinion come election time.

By-Election Watch (11/07/11)

Here are this week's changes to the by-election page:

Council	Type	Ward	Defending Party	Reason	Date
Somerset	County	South Petherton	Conservative	Resigned	4th Aug
Islington	London	St Peter's	Labour	Resigned	11th Aug
North Devon	District	Fremington	Independent	Health	11th Aug
Windsor & Maidenhead	Unitary	Eton & Castle	Conservative	Resigned	11th Aug
Birmingham	Metro.	Sparkbrook	Respect	Health	TBA
Gwynedd	Wales	Diffwys & Maenofferen	Llais Gwynedd	Resigned	TBA

We have a few more by-elections called for August now with the 11^th beginning to look like a busy night. In addition, the two new vacancies are in interesting wards. The Sparkbrook by-election in Birmingham is to be held following the resignation of Respect's leader Salma Yaqoob for health reasons and we've already been to Diffwys & Maenofferen since the 2010 General Election.

I may not be around on Thursday evening but fear not; a preview of the Old Catton by-election in Norfolk will be up on Wednesday and I'm going to set up a LiveBlog anyway due to popular demand. You just might have to find the result yourselves! (That is, if they are even counting on the night…)

Local By-election Review : July 5th 2011

If, like me, you're a Liberal Democrat member, activist and former council candidate, local by-elections are a very good indication of how things may turn out in your next set of elections. You can imagine my dismay then when (for what is becoming far too often an occurance for my liking) the Conservatives GAINED Lytchett Matravers from the Liberal Democrats on Purbeck (on a 6% swing) and in essence gained control of the council, came a distant third in Sawley on Derbyshire (Lab GAIN friom Ind), were beaten by UKIP in Horbury on Wakefield (Lab GAIN from Con) and Churnet Valley on Staffordshire (Con HOLD) and although polling 22% to get second place in Peckham on Southwark (Lab HOLD) were a good 38% behind Labour.

Add to which that as next year's elections will be a combination of wards last fought in 2007 (Scotland), 2008 (Wales) and 2011 (English mets and third rule non mets) and the average swing in the wards where by-elections have been held since the general election has been 1% from Lib Dem to Con and 9% from Lib Dem to Lab, you can see why I am extremely concerned for myself and my Lib Dem colleagues.

Two Gains for Labour in this week’s by-elections; Lib Dems lose another seat

At the risk of sounding like a broken record Labour were again celebrating gains in this week's by-elections whilst the national coalition partners struggled. Labour picked up seats in Derbyshire from an Independent and in Wakefield (Yorkshire) from the Tories whilst they enjoyed an easy hold in Southwark (London). The Conservatives made up for their loss by taking a seat off the Lib Dems in Purbeck (Dorset) and they also held a safe seat in Staffordshire.

I'll start in Derbyshire where the battle to replace the long serving Independent Councillor Bill Camm in Sawley was always going to interesting. Camm had been a Councillor at various levels for 50 years before he passed away in early May. On the available evidence the Conservatives looked like the party to beat having won five of the six District Council seats which make up this Division just nine weeks ago. However, Labour were not too far behind them and with the added incentive of cutting the Tory majority in Derbyshire to just two a close result was expected.

As it was Labour candidate Cheryl Pidgeon triumphed with a majority of 154 votes, which represents a LAB>CON swing of roughly 6% from the District elections in May. The new composition of the Council will not make life easy for the Tories and the next full elections are not due until 2013.

Derbyshire County Council
CON		LAB			LD
33	-	23	+1		8		-
Sawley
By-Election Candidate				Votes		Vote %
Cheryl Pidgeon (E)				1351		41.7%
Chris Corbett				1197		36.9%
Fiona Aanonson				692		21.4%

Labour's win in the Horbury & South Ossett, Wakefield MBC by-election was a little more comfortable than their victory in Derbyshire as they gained a seat from the Conservatives. They vacancy had arisen following the resignation of Tory Councillor Elizabeth Hick because of ill health. Hick had won a tight election in 2010 but as Labour had gained a seat in this ward two months ago they were strong favourites to add another on Thursday.

Indeed, Janet Holmes eased to victory by 715 votes, which represented a 6.5% swing from May. More importantly the CON>LAB swing from the 2008 election was 12.4% which would suggest that Labour are likely to increase their already large majority on Wakefield Council in next year's partial elections.

Horbury & South Ossett (Wakefield)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Janet Holmes (E)	1776	51.5%	+2.4%
Richard Wakefield	1061	30.8%	-10.6%
David Dews	232	6.7%	+6.7%
Mark Goodair	200	5.8%	-3.8%
Norman Tate	93	2.7%	+2.7%
Mark Harrop	88	2.6%	+2.6%

Whilst Wakefield Conservatives were coming to terms with their defeat their counterparts in Purbeck (Dorset) were celebrating a gain from the Liberal Democrats. The vacancy in the Lychett Matravers ward was caused by the
resignation
of Cllr. Mark Gracey, who felt the stress of being a Councillor was detrimental to his personal life. Recent results in this ward have been close and this by-election was no exception. Peter Webb secured a 5.4% swing to win this seat for the Tories by 70 votes. The District Council is now finely balanced as although the Liberal Democrats run Purbeck as a minority administration the Conservatives how hold half the seats. If the result does not lead to a change in control on the Council the Lib Dems will have to struggle on until next year's half Council elections.

Purbeck District Council
Con		LD				Ind
12	+1	10		-1		2		-
Lytchett Matravers
By-Election Candidate			Votes		Vote %		+/-
Peter Webb (E)			669		52.8%		+5.4%
John Taylor			599		47.2%		-5.4%

The other two by-elections this week were in what looked liked safe wards and neither seat changed hands. The vacancy in Churnet Valley, Staffordshire CC was caused by the death of Conservative Councillor Barrie Mycock. Mike Worthington easily held the seat for the Tories but the bigger story in this by-election was the collapse in the Liberal Democrat vote. Their vote share dropped 18% with most appearing to head to UKIP, who did not stand at the last election in 2009. The Tories have a large majority in Staffordshire and the next full Council elections are to take place in 2013.

Churnet Valley (Staffordshire)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Mike Worthington (E)	1063	52.0%	-1.9%
Mahfooz Ahmad	491	24.0%	+4.4%
Darren Federici	316	15.5%	+15.5%
Nicholas Brewin	173	8.5%	-18.0%

Finally, Labour enjoyed a comfortable victory in Peckham, Southwark LBC. The by-election was taking place following the death of Cllr. Tayo Situ and Labour's Chris Brown held the seat with a slightly increased majority. In contrast to the result in Staffordshire the Liberal Democrat vote held up well, limiting the LD>LAB swing to just 1.7%. The victory shores up Labour's small majority on the Council.

Southwark Council
Lab		LD			Con			Ind
33	-	25	-		3	-		1		-
Peckham
By-Election Candidate				Votes			Vote %		+/-
Chris Brown (E)				1754			70.1%		+7.7%
Jennifer Blake				554			22.1%		+4.4%
Diana Atuona				86			3.4%		-5.1%
Brian Kelly				63			2.5%		+2.5%
Jason Evers				46			1.8%		-4.3%

 

Tom Harris