By-Election Preview (21st October)

In addition to the Tower Hamlets Mayoral election, previewed here, there are a number of local council by-elections taking place tomorrow. There are 4 top-tier and 9 District by-elections; yet another busy October night!

The most interesting by-election of the night is the River ward in Medway (Kent). You may be thinking we've already been here since the General Election, and you'd be right. The Conservative who gained the ward from Labour in August almost immediately resigned from his post. David Craggs was told he couldn't be a Councillor and a Special Constable, so he opted for the latter. Whether or not the Tories should have known this before the election is disputed in some quarters, but either way the new by-election is happening. The gain was significant for the Tories as it was the first they'd managed over Labour since the General Election. As an urban area in the south Medway is a key electoral region for Labour as their poor performance in such seats in May played a large part in their defeat. They have now been gifted an opportunity to take the ward back, with the strange circumstances surrounding the vacancy sure to play a part. If Labour do gain this seat tomorrow it won't have much affect on the balance of power in Medway as the Tories have a large majority.

Elsewhere the by-elections appear to be pretty uncompetitive. Each of the three main parties are defending safe wards in top-tier councils, and upsets are unlikely. The Conservatives are defending the Andover South ward on the Hampshire County Council. The by-election is due to the death of Cllr. David Kirk, who was just shy of securing half the vote in 2009. An unlikely gain won't affect the Conservative administration much at all as they have a comfortable majority.

Things are a little more interesting in Welsh County Council of Swansea, where a Liberal Democrat led coalition can ill afford to lose any Councillors. It's the Lib Dems themselves who are defending the Newton ward following the resignation of Susan Waller-Thomas. There nearest competition in 2008 were the Conservatives, but it is Labour who are the main opposition on the Council. In fact, Labour hold more seats than the Liberal Democrats, who are joined by Independents and Plaid Cymru in their coalition. It will take a large swing for the Conservatives to win this, although they'll be aided by the fact more candidates will be standing tomorrow than in the full elections. The Lib Dems will be disappointed if they lost though.

The final top-tier vacancy is to be held for the Manor Castle ward on the Sheffield City Council (South Yorkshire). They by-election was triggered following the death of Labour Cllr. Jan Wilson. The Council is currently run by a minority Liberal Democrat administration, but Labour are not far behind. If they hold this, and they should, then they will have just one less Councillor than the Liberal Democrats. Labour were aided by the defection of a Lib Dem Councillor to them last month, and they look set to take control of Sheffield next May.

Despite the number of District Council by-elections taking place, only a few of them are interesting. Most are taking place in safe Conservatives wards, but there are a couple to keep an eye on. In Oxford, Labour should gain the Barton & Sandhills ward from the Liberal Democrats. In May they comfortably gained a seat in the multi-member ward, having come close in 2007 and 2008. It will be a surprise if the Lib Dems hang on given the national political climate. The only other interesting battle is taking place in Elmbridge (Surrey), when the Conservatives are hoping to gain the St. Georges Hill ward from the St. Georges Hill Independents. The local Independent party managed to win this ward in 2006, 2007 and 2008 but lost to the Tories this May. Although the Conservatives have the advantage of being able to bus activists in to the ward, discounting local parties isn't a smart move considering recent by-election results. The Tories are also defending a ward in Elmbridge - Hersham North.

The Conservatives will face some competition in another Surrey Council, this time for the Capel, Leigh & Newdigate ward in Mole Valley. The Liberal Democrats held the seat in 2006, and they weren't too far behind the Tories in the last two elections. This is certainly the most at risk ward the Conservatives are defending tomorrow. The others are: Ashley Green, Latimer & Chenies, Chiltern DC (Buckinghamshire); Abbey, East Staffordshire DC; Ashwick, Chilcompton & Stratton, Mendip DC (Somerset). The Tories are also sort of defending the Great Missenden ward in Chiltern as the Councillor who has resigned was elected as a Conservative but then sat as an Independent. It will almost certainly be a Tory Gain/Hold. The final by-election taking place tomorrow is for the Harworth ward on the Bassetlaw DC (Nottinghamshire), which will be defended by Labour.

River (Medway)				Andover S (Hampshire)
Candidate	2007	2010 b/e		Candidate	2009
John Charles (LAB)	40.1%	39.4%		David Drew (CON)	49.1%
Andrew Mackness (CON)	39%	44.6%		Len Gates (LD)	22.4%
Garry Harrison (LD)	8.2%	7.5%		Anthony McCabe (UKIP)	21.4%
Martin Cook (UKIP)	6.6%	-		John Newland (LAB)	7.1%
N/C (MIG)	6%	-
Steven Keevil (GRN)	-	3.3%
N/C (BNP)	-	2.8%
Ron Sands (ED)	-	2.4%
Newton (Swansea)				Manor Castle (Sheffield)
Candidate	2008			Candidate	2010
Simon Arthur (LD)	54%			Terry Fox (LAB)	55.4%
Miles Thomas (CON)	37.4%			Robbie Cowbury (LD)	25.5%
N/C (GRN)	8.6%			N/C (BNP)	7.6%
Pam Erasmus (LAB)	-			Christina Stark (CON)	7.2%
Rob Lowe (PC)	-			Graham Wroe (GRN)	4.3%
Peter Birch (IND)	-

Rules are there to be broken – Preview of the Tower Hamlets Mayoral election.

In amongst all the ballots held on May 6^th this year was one for the creation of an executive Mayor in Tower Hamlets, and the referendum passed with a 60% yes vote. The creation of this post has resulted in an incredible Local Government saga is supposed to reach a conclusion on Thursday, although I wouldn't bet on it!.

An extraordinary election race in Tower Hamlets is hardly surprising given this is no ordinary Borough. It is one of the poorest in the country and has by far the biggest proportion of ethnically Asian residents, of which the vast majority are Bengali. Indeed, TH contains the Bethnal Green & Bow constituency which George Galloway sensationally, and somewhat controversially, won as the Respect candidate in 2005, defeating the incumbent Labour MP Oona King. Galloway was accused of choosing that seat specifically to 'whip up racial tensions' by prominent Labour politicians David Lammy and Tony Banks. If anyone hasn't seen the spectacular interview between Paxman and Galloway, conducted immediately after his victory, then follow this link. If you have already seen it…well, it's definitely worth five minutes! There were also allegations of electoral fraud for good measure.

So fast forward five years, and things are a little different. Galloway's gone. His result TH's other constituency, Poplar & Limehouse, was so poor he didn't even bother showing up for the count. At the local level Respect lost 7 of their 8 Councillors in TH, and the party looked decidedly uncompetitive without Iraq as a salient issue. With this in mind whoever won the selection to be the Labour candidate for this Mayoral election was sure to be shoe in. The actual election would be a mere formality…but this is Tower Hamlets.

The role of Mayor will replace the current Council Leader and Cabinet system and so it's not surprising the Labour candidacy was sought by a number of men with executive experience in Tower Hamlets. Lutfur Rahman was the leader of the Labour administration in TH from 2008 until this May, when he was ousted in favour of Helal Uddin Abbas. Rahman is a somewhat controversial figure and has been the subject of a Dispatches investigation into his links with the Islamic Forum for Europe; an organisation frequently accused of being extremist. Initially Labour sought to bar Rahman from seeking the candidacy, but following a legal appeal he appeared on the ballot.

Lutfur Rahman won the Labour members ballot and was installed as their official candidate on 6^th September. As David Hill noted:

'The voting figures show the wide margin of his victory but also give a clue to the extent to which he divides opinion among party members…as the field narrowed, he gathered only a further 39 votes while his nearest challenger picked up 69.'

Having seemingly done the difficult bit of securing the Labour nomination Rahman looked set to become the first elected Mayor of Tower Hamlets. However, barely two weeks later, and just three days before nominations for the election were due, Rahman was removed as Labour's candidate as a result of electoral fraud allegations. Predictably, more legal action ensued, but with such a short time frame things weren't looking good for Rahman. He managed to get his case heard very quickly but he was unsuccessful in his bid to block the NEC's controversial decision. This lead to a frantic few days which culminated in Rahman's taking his own controversial decision to run as an Independent candidate.

Curiously, Labour didn't replace him with London Assembly Member, and former TH Council Leader, John Biggs, who finished second behind Rahman in the ballot. Instead they opted for the third placed, and noticeably more Bengali, candidate Helal Uddin Abbas (who you may remember replace Rahman as the Council leader in May). It's also entirely possible Labour won't actually follow up the allegations which resulted in Rahman's de-selection as by running as an Independent he's no longer their problem.

If you're wondering where Respect disappeared to in all this, they actually endorsed Rahman when he was the Labour candidate. His subsequent de-selection lead to the bizarre suggestion that Gorgeous George would drop everything and run as their candidate. As Andrew Gilligan articulates, there were two very good reasons why this would never have happened. The first is he'd almost certainly have lost, and the second is that he might have won! Neither would have interested Galloway, or more importantly – his ego. Respect's decision was made for them when Rahman announced he was running as an Independent, so they re-endorsed him.

If the NEC thought removing Rahman as the official candidate would be the end of the matter they were sorely mistaken. Given Rahman did win the Labour ballot it would be fair to assume that, even if the allegations are true, he had a few supporters within the party. Therefore, it was hardly a fall of a chair moment when a few of them turned up to a campaign meeting for his Independent candidacy. As a result, they were all expelled from the Labour party, whose rules on members publicly supporting opposition candidates are pretty clear. Of those who were automatically expelled from Labour, 8 were Councillors in Tower Hamlets. They have now formed a group, Independent Supporters of Lutfur Rahman, on the Council and with nine members (Lutfur himself, obviously!) are the second largest group, ahead of the Conservatives.

But wait, there's more. For the most part all this has slipped under the radar. There are a few in the blogosphere who have been regularly following the story (Andrew Gilligan and David Hill most notably), but given the imminent spending review dominating all platforms its minimal coverage is hardly a surprise it's not exactly national news. This all changed on Monday when Red Ken got involved…

The recently anointed Official Labour Party Candidate for London Mayor Ken Livingstone is backing Independent Candidate for Tower Hamlets Mayor Lutfur Rahman. Not content with a private 'I hope he wins' Livingstone was actually filmed on the campaign trail! Notable verbatim quotes from the clip are:

'It took five years to put the Labour party back together after George Galloway defeated Oona King down here. All that was blown away in a moment of madness by Labour's NEC'

And (my personal favourite):

'The stupidity…If they were going to get rid of you and they'd gone for John [Biggs] at least there was a credible, competent candidate.'

It's almost as if Ken's trying to get automatically expelled. A Labour spokesman humorously suggested Livingstone 'supported all Labour Party candidates everywhere; including Tower Hamlets.' Indeed, Ken himself has backtracked, suggesting he was merely campaigning to get second preferences for Rahman. Given the Labour party candidate is 99.9% certain to be in the top two (the election is employing the – ridiculous – Supplementary Vote system) this is an extremely weak excuse. To complicate matters further, Livingstone was elected to the NEC last month; the very body which is supposed to automatically expel him. [Un]Surprisingly, Livingstone is still a Labour party member, and their Mayoral candidate, at the time of writing.

So there you have it. You've got the Official Labour candidate Helal Uddin Abbas, who finished third in their ballot, against the former Labour leader of Tower Hamlets Council Lutfur Rahman, who is (definitely, maybe) backed by Ken Livingstone and (definitely) backed by Respect. There's even the remote possibility that the Conservative candidate Neil King could sneak it with Labour's vote split two ways. However, as the Tories only managed 27% and 13% in the two Parliamentary seats here in May it would take a significant protest against the Labour shenanigans to deliver such a result.

Candidate

Helal Uddin Abbas (LAB)

Alan Duffell (GRN)

John Griffiths (LD)

Neil King (CON)

Lutfur Rahman (IND)

I'll be around on Thursday night for the regular live result tweeting. There are a lot of by-elections taking place on Thursday as well, and they'll be (a little more briefly) previewed later on today.

Electoral Reformers should shift their focus from Westminster to Local Councils.

Discussions on electoral reform always centre on Westminster, but it is my view that after the referendum on AV is over with electoral reformers should concentrate on electing councils by STV. Why?

STV is a system whereby constituencies are multi-member, with generally a maximum of around about six representatives. Voters then rank candidates according to preference, if a candidate reaches a quota of votes set at the number of votes divided by the number of seats +1 then they are elected. Votes ‘over’ the quota, and votes from eliminated candidates are transferred until all the seats are filled. This sounds complex but it has several big advantages:

• It is semi-proportional. Generally STV parliaments end up with a reasonable representation of parties.
• Voters vote for people rather than parties, therefore meaning that every candidate has gotten there on their own work. Indeed there is a certain level of competition foisted upon candidates from the same party.
• Politics tends to become quite local. Candidates have to represent their constituents well because a bad constituency representative may be replaced by someone from the same party. Sometimes this is used to criticise the system. In Ireland it is occasionally argued that MPs spend too much time thinking about their constituents and not enough time thinking about the national picture!

I feel that STV makes particular sense at a local level because most council wards are already multi-member. In most councils what already happens is that wards have three members, one member is elected each year with the ward lying ‘fallow’ for one year every four years. What this means is that there are yearly elections to councils meaning that an informed voter has to lock into local politics once a year. This means that turnouts tend to be low (usually about 30-35%) and local elections tend to be reflections on the national performance of parties rather than the local performance of parties, indeed these are the terms in which they are usually analysed. With STV the same constituency boundaries could be used but elections could take place once every four years. Local parties could dedicate more resources to fighting one big election leading to bigger, shinier, clearer local elections, with more accountability. What’s more constituencies are already multi-member, so the argument for single representative FPTP is invalid – this does not exist in most local councils.

Similarly the typical arguments against STV and other electoral systems don’t necessarily apply. A typical argument against proportional representation is that it leads to unstable coalition government, but councils tend to operate by consensus anyway, and in any case many councils across the country are under no overall control. My own council, Weymouth and Portland, has not enjoyed the wonders of majority control since 1979! All manner of governance type can be found in British councils, coalitions of several types, minority governments, and so on. On the other end of the spectrum there are councils in some areas with zero opposition to one party, for example Barking and Dagenham council now has no members from any party besides the Labour Party since the BNP group was wiped out. Yet at the same time STV biases against extremist parties like the BNP because supporters of mainstream parties are highly unlikely to second preference them. In other words it is likely that Conservative voters will preference Labour before the BNP. In FPTP there is the danger that a divided mainstream could ‘let in’ BNP councillors, this is less likely under STV. Similarly too councillors tend to vote more as individuals than as parties and so STV would allow voters to select individuals on their stances rather than simply allying to a party. Finally, it should be noted that since 2007 Scotland has had STV elected local councils and so far the world hasn’t ended North of the border.

Yet why should electoral reformers particularly concentrate on this reform? Well firstly like it or not we have a referendum on AV in May. Once it is over the question of electoral reform will be sealed for some time. Win or lose it would be ludicrous to have another debate on Westminster electoral reform, whatever the system, within the next ten to twenty years. The question will have basically been decided upon for the time being, and so Westminster electoral reform should take a backseat for a little while. Yes, it should be a long-term objective, but it will be out of the public mind. Secondly, for the reasons I outlined above I believe it would improve local democracy, which can only be a good thing. Finally, however, if people get used to voting using STV at local level and dealing with it at a local level they will become more open to it at Westminster, and in the long-term this may be the best way of securing electoral reform at a national level.

By-Election Watch

Here are this week's changes to the by-election page. This Thursday is another busy week with over a dozen elections taking place across the country, including one for the new Mayoral post in Tower Hamlets. As always, they'll be a preview up on Wednesday.

Council	Type	Ward	Party	Reason	Date
Walsall	Metro.	Rushall-Shelfield	Conservative	Death	11th Nov
Liverpool	Metro.	Croxteth	Labour	Death	18th Nov
Liverpool	Metro.	Croxteth	Lib Dem	Resigned	18th Nov
Sandwell	Metro.	Wednesbury North	Conservative	Health	18th Nov
Bradford	Metro.	Worth Valley	Conservative	MP	TBA

Guest post at Who Rules Where

I've written a guest post over at Who Rules Where a blog by Fred Carver about international politics. It is an exploration of the 2010 Dutch coalition formation, so if you're interested please do go take a look! The post can be found here.

Labour enjoy an almost perfect night

Labour had another good night of by-election results as they held onto all four seats they were defending and gained one off Plaid Cymru. However, they were denied a perfect night by the Liberal Democrats who managed to hold their seat in Watford. Elsewhere, the Conservatives successfully held their seat in Leeds and there was a interesting result in Herefordshire.

I'll start with the night's only true gain. Labour had already held a seat on the Rhondda Cynon Taff Council this year, and last night they took one of Plaid Cymru. The Treherbert ward was vacant following the resignation of Plaid Councillor Leyton Jones due to work commitments. Labour already enjoy a comfortable majority on this South Wales Council, and that was added to as Luke Bouchard narrowly won this week's by-election by 28 votes. Labour also held the other seat up for grabs in Wales this week. The Neath North ward on the Neath Port Talbot Council was hosting its second by-election since the full elections in 2008. This time the vacancy was due to the death of Labour Cllr. 'Mannie' Loaring. Mark Protheroe easily held this seat for the reds, and they currently run the Council with a substantial majority.

The most intriguing result of the night came just over the border in Herefordshire, where the death of Independent Cllr. David Benjamin had left an open contest for the St. Nicholas ward. With no obvious successor as an Independent candidate, the Liberal Democrats, who came second here in 2007, would have fancied their chances. But a recently formed local party It's OUR County ended up victorious in their first election. The group was formed in August and had a group of four on the Council, including a joint Green/IOC Councillor. I speculated earlier in the week that this new party may emerge as serious competition for the vacancy as one of their Councillors holds the other seat in this ward. As it happens they easily won the by-election with their candidate, Justin Lavender, secured 45% of the vote.

Thursday night wasn't a complete disaster for the Liberal Democrats as they held on to both of the District seats they were defending. The St. Pauls ward on the Winchester City Council was expected to stay yellow, but the Central ward on the Watford Borough Council was at risk from Labour. The Lib Dems have done fairly well in by-elections since the General Election, despite their relatively poor poll ratings. There vote may have fallen sharply in seats they run paper candidates, but where they are already strong they have held on to their share. However, up until now these by-elections have mostly taken place in rural areas, where the Tories have been their main competition, so this defence in an urban ward against Labour was a significant victory for the Lib Dems. So far it seems the national coalition is not affecting them in the elections which matter.

Elsewhere, the Conservatives held the Guiseley & Rawdon ward on the Leeds City Council. The vacancy arose due to the election of Tory Councillor Stuart Andrew as the MP for Pudsey in May. The seat was slightly at risk from Labour, but Paul Wadsworth comfortably won the by-election for the Conservatives, limiting the swing against his party to just 2% from May.

Labour's other three victories all took place in the North of England. Alison Bacon held Billinge & Seneley Green, St Helens MBC for Labour to shore up their small majority on the Council. In York, Mick Hoban managed an impressive 25% increase to the Labour vote share as he won the by-election for the Hull Road ward. The victory was achieved by taking votes from all four opposition parties. Finally, in the Deneside ward of the Durham CC Jennifer Bell secured 82% of the vote as she held the seat for Labour. Not bad.

Rhondda Cynon Taff County Borough Council																Neath Port Talbot County Borough Council
LAB		PC		IND				LD				CON				LAB		PC		IND		LD		SDP		IG
46	+1	19	-1	6		-		3		-		1		-		38	-	11	-	6	-	4	-	3	-	2	-
Candidate					Votes				Vote %				+/-			Candidate						Votes			Vote %
Luke Bouchard (E)					883				50.8%				+9.7			Mark Protheroe (E)						437			57.2%
Irene Pearce					855				49.2%				-9.7			Breandan MacCathail						144			18.8%
																David Howells						132			17.3%
																Mathew McCarthy						51			6.7%

 

Leeds City Council																Herefordshire County Council
LAB		CON		LD			IND					GRN				CON	IND	LD	IOC/	GRN		LAB
48	-	22	-	21		-	6			-		2		-		31	10	9	4	1		2
Candidate					Votes				Vote %				+/-			Candidate			Votes		Vote %
Paul Wadsworth (E)					2075				45.1%				+4.9			Justin Lavender (IOC - E)			589		45.2%
Mike King					1708				37.1%				+8.9			Anthiny Murphy			385		29.5%
Cindy Cleasby					818				17.8%				-5.3			Colin Mears (IND)			173		13.3%
																Vivienne Jones			156		12%

 

St Helens Council													Durham County Council
LAB		LD			CON			VAC					LAB		LD		IND		CON			IG		LIB
27	-	15	-		5	-		1		-			68	-	24	-	11	-	10	-		10	-	3	-
Candidate				Votes			Vote %		+/-				Candidate						Votes				Vote %
Alison Bacon (E)				1288			56.4%		+6.9				Jennifer Bell (E)						917				82.4%
Elizabeth Black				624			27.3%		-2.7				Margaret Reid						196				17.6%
Tom Gadsden				229			10%		-10.4
James Winstanley				141			6.2%		+6.2

 

York City Council
LD		LAB			CON			GRN
20	-	18	-		7	-		2		-
Candidate				Votes			Vote %		+/-
Mick Hoban (E)				860			58.7%		+25.6
Robin Dickson				296			20.2%		-5.8
Rachel Williams				183			12.5%		-4.2
John Cossham				84			5.7%		-8
Trevor Brown				42			2.9%		-7.6