A disastrous night for the LibDems as Labour march on

Last night was one to forget for the Liberal Democrats as they performed poorly in a variety of seats. Although they had been doing badly in urban seats were they weren't competitive, this week they failed in a ward they had targeted and lost a rural seat to the Conservatives. Labour were the big winners, gaining two seats off the Conservatives and holding two wards where the Greens have been strong in recent years.

I'll start in Swindon, where Labour gained the Moredon ward from the Conservatives. The Tory Councillor Steph Excell resigned in protest against the proposed cuts to public spending, although how this squares with forcing her Council to pay for a by-election for a 6 month term...! Regardless, Labour took the seat on a 4% swing from May's result and Jenny Millen will hope to make this stick in next year's election. The swing doesn't tell the whole story though as the Tories' vote actually rose 2.6% from the spring. Labour picked up most of their extra votes from the Liberal Democrats, who collapsed from 18% to 5%. I was informed last night that this was the first seat the Conservative have lost in Swindon since 2002. This bodes well for Labour in there quest to reduce the Tories' comfortable majority on the Council.

Labour's other gain was in Coleridge, Cambridge. Although they were expected to win both seats they gained, this one was the easier of the two. They already held the other two seats in this ward and George Owers comfortably added the third last night. This is another example of the Liberal Democrats falling away spectacularly as their vote dropped from 25.5% in May to just 11%. Both Labour and the Conservatives profited, but the reds secured marginally more of the Lib Dems' vote to win the seat.

The by-election in Hulme, Manchester was perhaps the most disappointing of the Liberal Democrats' urban results last night. In May they had managed to force their way above the Greens into second place, apparently without trying. Then this by-election was triggered as the sitting Labour Councillor has caused a three car crash whilst under the influence of alcohol. So with a promising result earlier in the year, and the circumstances surrounding the vacancy, the Lib Dems campaigned in the ward this time. Their reward was to see their vote share drop back to 2008 levels as Labour comfortably held the seat. The Greens re-emerged as Labour's main challengers in Hulme, but they didn't come close to gaining the seat. Amina Lone was elected with over 60% of the vote and Labour look set to easily keep control of Manchester Council next May.

In the Ladywell by-election, Lewisham the Greens were clearly Labour's main worry. They had held all three seats in the ward until May when they struggled to deal with Labour's General Election turnout and lost them all. The Greens clawed back some of their vote share but it wasn't enough to regain a seat. A 1.6% swing from Labour left them 190 votes short as Carl Handley held the seat for his party. Both the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives lost votes from May as Labour remain firmly in control of this London Borough.

The most worrying result for the Liberal Democrats came in the Lyth Valley by-election, South Lakeland DC (Cumbria). All summer they have been strong in rural battles with the Conservatives but for the second time in a fortnight their national coalition partners got the better of them. They lost Newton, Swansea two weeks ago on a massive swing as Labour and Plaid Cymru fielded candidates when they previously hadn't. This time it was just Labour who disrupted this ordinarily Tory/Lib Dem battle and their inclusion appears to have made the difference. The Conservatives managed a 6.8% swing to win the seat by just 23 votes as Labour received 32 votes. It will be interesting to see whether Labour run more candidates in wards like this, and if they have this much impact.

I'll finish with a couple of mundane results. Eileen Armstrong held Ponteland East, Northumberland for the Conservatives and replaces her late husband on the Council. Also, in Wales there was an open seat in Carmarthenshire following the death of Independent Councillor Haydn Jones. Plaid Cymru easily beat the Conservatives in a two way battle to gain the seat.

Swindon Borough Council												Manchester City Council
CON		LAB			LD			IND				LAB		LD			CON			IND
40	-1	14	+1		4		-	1		-		62	-	32	-		1	-		1		-
Candidate				Votes		Vote %			+/-			Candidate				Votes			Vote %		+/-
Jenny Millin (E)				887		47.0%			12.1%			Amina Lone (E)				1031			60.6%		14.8%
Toby Elliott				775		41.0%			1.7%			Deyika Nzeribe				451			26.5%		4.6%
William Oram				129		6.8%			6.8%			Grace Baynham				151			8.9%		-14.1%
Chris Ward				98		5.2%			-13.4%			Will Stobart				67			3.9%		-5.2%

 

Lewisham Borough Council												Camarthenshire County Council
LD		LAB			CON			GRN				IG		PC		LAB			PF				LD				IND
12	-	39	-		2		-	1		-		29	-1	30	+1	11	-		2	-			1	-			1	-
Candidate				Votes		Vote %			+/-			Candidate						Votes				Vote %				+/-
Carl Handley (E)				1231		41.4%			3.3%			Eileen Armstrong (E)						843				62.6%				2.1%
Ute Michel				1041		35.0%			6.4%			Andrew Duffield						403				29.9%				1.6%
Ingrid Chetram				314		10.6%			-5.3%			Andy Avery						100				7.4%				2.9%
Ben Appleby				153		5.1%			-4.5%
Helen Mercer				233		7.8%			0.0%

 

Camarthenshire County Council
IG		PC		LAB		PF			LD			IND
29	-1	30	+1	11	-	2		-	1	-		1	-
Candidate							Votes				Vote %
Hazel Evans (E)							638				81.9%
Henrietta Hensher							141				18.1%

By-Election Preview (4th November)

This week we have seven by-elections, and a few of them look quite interesting on paper. Five of the by-elections are for top-tier councils and the other two are for District Councils. The by-election in Swindon looks like a potential Labour gain against the Tories, but they are also defending two seats against the Greens. In Cambridge there is another tight Tory/Labour marginal up for grabs so it is set to be an intriguing night.

I'll start in Swindon, where there is a vacancy for the Moredon ward. Conservative Councillor Steph Excell resigned in protest against the proposed cuts to public spending, and she has left her party a difficult seat to defend. Excell won her seat handily in 2007, but earlier this year the ward was a lot more competitive. Labour came within a 100 votes of gaining the seat and a cynic would suggest that as Excell's term finishes next spring this was in the back of her mind. Whoever wins will face the voters again next May, but it's always an advantage to fight an election as an incumbent. Labour need a 1.2% swing to gain the seat but even if they succeed the balance of power in Swindon won't be affected. The Tories currently hold 41 of the 59 seats, so will continue to control the Council whatever the result.

In London there is a vacancy for the Ladywell ward on the Lewisham Borough Council. The by-election has been called following the resignation of Labour Cllr. Tim Shand, who has left to work for a Human Rights group in South Africa. Shand was one of the three Labour candidates to gain all the seats in Ladywell from the Greens this May, and the environmentalist party will be seeking to take one back tonight. Their candidate, Ute Michel, was one of the defeated candidates earlier in the year. The Greens lost five of their six seats in Lewisham against Labour's General Election turnout, and as the smaller party they are disadvantaged in a by-election campaign. This election is sure to be well fought but it won't change the complexion of the Council. Labour have a handy majority in Lewisham and a loss wouldn't dent that.

They Greens are likely challengers in another by-election tonight, this time in Hulme, Manchester City Council. The vacancy is due to the resignation of Labour Cllr. Emily Lomax following her arrest for drink driving. Lomax was tipped as a rising star
within the Labour Party and was a defeated General Election candidate in May. She has admitted causing a three car crash which did not cause any fatalities (aside from her career(s)). With such exceptional circumstances surrounding the by-election there is the potential for a surprise result. Lomax won her election in 2008 by just 50 votes from the Green candidate, but it was the Liberal Democrats who sneaked into second place in May's election in this ward. The Lib Dems appear to be targeting this by-election, which doesn't bode well for the Greens chances. The Lib Dems are also Labour's main opposition on the Council, with 32 of the 96 seats, whilst the Greens do not currently have a Councillor elected in Manchester. Labour tend to pull around 40% of the vote in Hulme so if the opposition is split they may hold easily, despite the circumstances. This is the most likely scenario, but if Lomax's conduct harms Labour's vote then there could be an surprise gain…for someone!

In Wales there is a vacancy for the Cenarth ward, Camarthenshire following the death of Independent Councillor Haydn Jones. Jones easily won his seat against a sole Plaid Cymru challenger in 2008 and there will again be just two choices on the ballot paper. This time the Conservatives will battle with Plaid for the ward, and as the latter only polled 190 votes two years ago and the former do not hold any seats in the County there is little to go on. Plaid could do with the seat as a win would make them the largest group on the Council, although the anti-PC coalition would still have the majority. I'd assume Plaid are better organised locally than the Conservatives, but there must be a reason why they didin't even manage a quarter of the vote share two years ago.

Now, the only boring one! The Conservatives will be defending Ponteland East, Northumberland following the death of Cllr. Mel Armstrong. Armstrong won secured 60% of the vote in 2009 so the Tories shouldn't have much problem holding on to this one; especially as they've selected his widow as their candidate.

In the Districts there is an interesting by-election for Coleridge ward, Cambridge City Council. The Conservatives are defending the ward but the Labour candidate, George Owers, has been in contact with us to say they are working hard on this by-election. Recent results in Coleridge have been very close between the Tories and Labour, with a margin of victory as small as 14 votes in 2008; the term for which this by-election is for. In May Labour managed a relatively comfortably 160 vote victory, and with their by-election performances over the summer this looks like another potential gain for the reds.

Finally, there is a vacancy in a LibDem/Tory marginal on the South Lakeland (Cumbria). The Liberal Democrats won Lyth Valley by 55% to 45% in 2008 but there will be a Labour candidate on the ballot today which could shake things up. In a similar situation in Cheltenham last week the Lib Dems' vote held up much better than the Tories'. Also, this ward is within the Liberal Democrat Presidential candidate Tim Farron's constituency, which might help their chances.

Moredon (Swindon)				Ladywell (Lewisham)
Candidate	2007	2010		Candidate	2010
Toby Elliott (CON)	47.7%	38.5%		Carl Handley (LAB)	38.1%
Jenny Millin (LAB)	35.6%	36.3%		Ute Michel (GRN)	28.6%
William Oram (UKIP)	8.8%	-		Ingrid Chetram (LD)	15.8%
Chris Ward (LD)	7.9%	18.1%		Ben Appleby (CON)	9.7%
N/C (BNP)	-	7.1%		Helen Mercer (IND)	7.8%
Hulme (Manchester)				Cenarth (Camarthen)
Candidate	2008	2010		Candidate	2008
Amina Lone (LAB)	42.2%	45.8%		N/C (IND)	77.5%
Deyika Nzeribe (GRN)	40.0%	22%		Henrietta Hensher (PC)	22.5%
Will Stobart (CON)	9.4%	9.2%		Hazel Evans (CON)	-
Grace Baynham (LD)	8.3%	23%
Ponteland E (Northumber)
Candidate	2009
Eileen Armstrong (CON)	60.6%
Andrew Duffield (LD)	28.3%
N/C (IND)	6.6%
Andy Avery (LAB)	4.5%

Normal by-election service will be resumed on Thursday night, which is good; this week has some exciting races!

Guide to the Northern Ireland Election Page

I've just put up our primer for the 2011 Northern Ireland election. This is the first (and longest!) of several guides we are creating for the 2011 elections, and it can be found at the top.

The London Mayoralty: A recipe for disloyalty

This past month we have enjoyed the spectre of both Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson causing trouble for their parties. First Ken got himself into trouble by appearing to endorse the Independent mayoral candidate for Tower Hamlets Lutfur Rahman the bizarre spectre of which Tom has already covered here and here. Theoretically Ken’s actions should lead to him being automatically expelled from the Labour Party but he remains in the party and the mayoral candidate. At the same time current mayor Boris Johnson has described the Coalition government’s housing benefits changes as likely to result in ‘Kosovo-style social cleansing’. Boris had already told the Greater London Assembly that he wanted London to be spared from the cuts back in July.

London Mayors and Mayoral candidates have developed a maverick streak it seems, but why, and why can’t parties do anything to prevent these types of outbursts? Firstly, it is only inevitable that parties at local level will take different positions to national level parties. Different areas have different needs, different demographics and different cultures to the nation as a whole. We can see this in the Welsh and Scottish Assembly and Parliament most clearly. Welsh and Scottish Labour have taken positions notably and proudly to the left of the national party. These are not just a function of the coalitions it has wound up in, but also as a part of its political strategy and the make-up of local parties. Former Welsh First Minister proudly proclaimed his left wing credentials. Yet no member of a devolved parliament would ever behave in a way as ‘maverick’ as Boris or Ken.

The reality is that its part and parcel of the London mayoral system itself. Unlike the vast majority of political leaders in the UK the London mayor is elected on an individual mandate. It’s essentially a Presidential system – the Mayor is elected directly and has a vast swathe of powers all of his own. The Greater London Authority is supposed to keep the Mayor to account but its powers are fairly weak, the balance of power is clearly slanted towards the Mayor. This means several things. Firstly, when someone votes for a Mayoral candidate they vote for a person – not for a party. This encourages parties to select maverick, well-known, likeable individuals to be Mayoral candidates. Both Mayors of London have so far matched this description. What’s more, in order to win the Mayoralty a candidate does not necessarily need a party or pre-existing structure behind them, as winning seats on the GLA has no impact on whether you win. This has been demonstrated by Ken winning the mayoralty as an independent in 2000. At the same time parties have far fewer mechanisms for keeping them in line than MPs - mayors are not whipped and being booted out of the party is far less a threat as they will continue to be mayor anyway, and enjoy all the power associated.

I have no idea why Ken Livingstone apparently endorsed Rahman in Tower Hamlets. He may have wanted to re-enforce his ‘maverick’ image, he may have genuinely thought him the best candidate, he may have hoped to re-enforce his ties with an area of London that has always voted strongly for him, or it may have been none of these things, or all of these things, but I do know one thing – whatever happened Ken Livingstone would have been on the ballot paper in May 2012. If Labour had ejected him he’d have simply run as an Independent, and in boroughs like Tower Hamlets ‘Livingstone’ carries a lot more respect and loyalty than ‘Labour’ – the effect would have likely been to have him run as an Independent, and push Labour into an embarrassing third place. At least with him in the party the party has some modicum of influence over him, however small.

Boris, on the other hand, appears to just be dealing with political reality. London is naturally a centre-left city. Labour won London in the 2010 election – winning 36.6% of the vote and 38 seats compared to 34.5% and 28 for the Conservatives and 22.1% and 7 for the Liberal Democrats. What’s more the Mayoral election is in 2012. By this point the cuts are likely to be truly biting, and the coalition government may well be particularly unpopular. What’s more opposition voters tend to see elections like this as a chance to stick two fingers up at the government – in other words Labour voters may be more enthusiastic about voting than Conservative ones. While Boris is polling encouragingly it is not enough to make him certain of victory. Picking fights with the government allows him to distance itself from it, and by echoing the attack points of Labour MPs he appeals to centre-left voters. If the Coalition takes a hit for Boris Johnson then that is acceptable – it is about winning. Some wish to perceive this as part of an attempt by Boris to become Conservative Party leader – I wholeheartedly disagree. The Mayoralty is a poor place to jump to leader from, Boris is distant from the MPs he would need the support of and would need to be a MP himself. What’s more attacking a Conservative government from the left is hardly a way to make yourself popular with Conservatives. This is purely about the Mayoralty.

In creating a quasi-Presidential London politics Tony Blair created a system that encouraged personality over party. Mavericks and oddballs are the recipe du jour. It has to say something that the current favourite for the Lib Dem nod is Lembit Opik, with the spectre of Boris vs. Ken vs. Lembit likely to secure a Mayoral race that is at least interesting. The system weakens political parties with regard to London local governance. Mayors and mayoral candidates will always be out of party control, and parties should not be surprised when they embarrass them. In fact they should come to expect it.

Guest Post @WhoRulesWhere Mk. III

The second part of my US Mid-Term preview is up on the WhoRulesWhere blog. This post is focussed on the key battles for Governorships and State Legislatures. Fred seems to think the key selling point of the article is the lovely picture! The elections are taking place tomorrow so if you want a quick overview of what's been happening across the pond I'd like to think my articles fit the bill. If you missed it earlier in the week, here's the first one on the Congressional elections.

Any fans of our Thursday night by-election tweeting may be pleased to hear we'll be up all night tomorrow to cover the US elections. We'll be tweeting from @BritainVotes, @tnjharris and @CTerry1985. Fred will also be around on @WhoRulesWhere. Although Eastern Time is four hours behind GMT the night shouldn't be much longer than a UK election. Many states' polling stations close as early as 6pm, so we're likely to know what the overall picture is earlier than this year's General Election!

By-Election Watch (01/11/10)

Here are this week's changes to the by-election page. This is the second week in a row with very few new by-elections called; our list is beginning to shrink! Incidentally, the Tower Hamlets vacancy is just Rahman's ward left open following his election as the Mayor of Tower Hamlets. It isn't due to any acrimonious fallout from his victory.

Council	Type	Ward	Party	Reason	Date
Worcestershire	County	Bowbrook	Conservative	Death	25th Nov
Poole	Unitary	Poole Town	Conservative	Death	2nd Dec
Blackpool	Unitary	Stanley	Conservative	Death	TBA
Tower Hamlets	London	Spitalfields & Banglatown	Labour	Mayor	TBA