By-Election Preview: (9th September)

Although tonight's main event will be joint hosted by Exeter and Norwich City Councils, there is a pretty interesting undercard of by-elections to keep an eye out for. There are four top-tier vacancies to be filled using two different electoral systems. If you're wondering how AV works then the by-election in Edinburgh is the place to look. The other three are taking place in Middlesbrough, Poole (Dorset) and Cumbria. Excluding Exeter and Norwich there is one more District vacancy up for grabs tonight as well as two Town Council by-elections.

We'll start in Scotland where there is a by-election for the Liberton/Gilmerton ward on the Edinburgh City Council. The reason for the vacancy is that the sitting Labour Councillor is the newly elected Ian Murray MP. Murray narrowly held the Edinburgh South constituency for Labour in May and has subsequently resigned from his Council duties. Councillors in Scotland are elected by the Single Transferable Vote electoral system, which essentially becomes AV when there is only one vacancy to fill. And given the competitiveness of this ward this election could be a much better example of how the electoral system works than Labour's Leadership contest.

In 2007 the SNP candidate won just over a quarter of the first preferences to 'win' the vote. Labour fielded two candidates who were elected second and third, both receiving slightly under 20% of the first preferences. Furthermore, the Conservative candidate and the Liberal Democrat both received around a 15% of the first preferences each, with the latter overtaking the former to snatch the last seat. If all this was repeated tonight then the winner of the first preferences is by no means certain of winning the seat, but in reality Labour are likely to receive around the combined total of their 2007 candidates and so they should stay ahead with the second preferences. STV does not lend itself to majority rule and so it probably won't be a surprise to hear that a coalition is in control of the Council. It's between the Liberal Democrats and the SNP and they currently only command a majority because of this vacancy. The combined group holds 29 of the 58 seats a gain for either party tonight would be significant. The next full Council elections take place in 2012.

Back to the boring FPTP elections now, and the pick of the rest is the Ayresome ward for the Middlesbrough Borough Council. Barbara Dunne narrowly won her seat as an Independent in 2007 when the top four candidates for this two seat ward were separated by just 8 votes. She pushed Labour's second candidate into third place but then subsequently joined Labour anyway. Dunne has now resigned for personal reasons and there is just 8 months left of the term. The Council is controlled by Labour who have 28 of the 48 seats. Their opposition is very much divided as the second biggest group is the Middlesbrough Independent Members Association with just 7 Councillors. So although there is a chance Labour may lose the seat to the Independent candidate they will still enjoy a comfortable majority until next May.

In Poole, the Liberal Democrat Councillor Mike Plummer has resigned from his Newtown seat to devote more time to the 'Buy British' campaign. He leaves a safe ward for his party to defend so there is unlikely to be any change to the balance of power in the Council. This is another Council due for full elections next May and they are likely to be competitive. The Conservatives currently control Poole with 23 of the 42 seats, but the Lib Dems aren't far behind with 17 (if they hold tonight). The final top tier by-election is in Cumbria where the death of Conservative Cllr. Jim Buchanan has left a vacancy in the Aspatria and Wharrels ward. However, only the Greens are opposing the Tories in today's election so they are almost certain to hold onto this safe ward. The Conservatives are the largest group on the Council with 38 of the 84 seats and lead the cross party coalition in control of Cumbria. The next full elections are due in 2013.

The other elections taking place today are as follows: Kilnhouse, Flyde Borough Council (Lancashire); Middlestone AND Spennymore, Spennymore Town Council (Durham).

Lib/Gilm (Edinburgh)			Ayresome (M'boro)
Candidate	2007		Candidate	2007
Bill Cook (LAB)	35.4%		Stephen Cass (LAB)	42.6%
Richard Lewis (SNP)	26.6%		Bill Hawthorne (IND)	42.3%
Stephanie Murray (CON)	14.7%		James Ruddock (CON)	15.2%
John Knox (LD)	14.6%
Peter McColl (GRN)	3.6%		Asp & Whar (Cumbria)
Mev Brown (IND)	2.5%		Candidate	2009
Colin Fox (SSP)	1.6%		Mike Johnson (CON)	56.8%
N/C (Solidarity)	1.0%		N/C (LAB)	24.8%
Philip Hunt (Pirate Party)	-		N/C (LD)	18.4%
			Helen Graham (GRN)	-
Newtown (Poole)
Candidate	2007
Jo Clements (LD)	55.3%
Tony Reeves (CON)	32.5%
Jason Sanderson (LAB)	12.3%
Diana Butler (UKIP)	-
William Kimmet (BNP)	-

The Curious Case of Exeter and Norwich

This Thursday voters in Exeter and Norwich will head to their polling stations to elect 13 Councillors in each city. These elections were initially due to take place in May but they were postponed while the decision on whether the Councils would be granted Unitary status being taken. The move to split from their respective County Councils had cross party support within each city, and cross party opposition from other local representatives. Although the plans were initially given the go ahead in February the bill struggled through Parliament and was eventually passed in late March. However, with the Conservatives pledging to overturn the decision, and both Devon and Norfolk County Councils challenging the plan in the High Court, it looked unlikely that either city would actually become a Unitary Authority.

One of the first moves made by the incoming coalition Government was to scrap the proposed Unitary Authorities. A month later the High Court deemed the initial decision unlawful and shortly after it ruled that the Councillors due for election in May had to stand down and face the voters. This very messy process will come to something of a conclusion on Thursday, although calls from the two cities to change their local Government structure are unlikely to disappear. It's hard to tell whether Labour, who essentially botched the entire process, or the Conservatives, who were against the plan from the start, will suffer more at the ballot box. Of course, this is the first major electoral test for the coalition as well, and so the Liberal Democrats will be under pressure too.

What it important to point out early is that neither Council will emerge from these elections with any one party in control, but a good performance this week could lead to further gains next May. Recent election results for each Council can be found on the top bar. Thursday is set to be interesting night so here's a quick look at some of the key wards in both cities.

The top line of the tables' show the current breakdown and the bottom line would be the result if all wards are won by the defending party.

Exeter City Council
LD	LAB	CON	LIB
9	8	7	3
12	13	11	4

In Exeter it's hard to see a change from NOC anytime soon. Labour are defending 5 seats, and four of them are fairly safe. They enjoy 10% plus majorities in Mincinlake, Newtown and Priory and the Conservatives' strong performance in Whipton Barton in 2008 is likely to be a high water mark. So with Labour likely to come out of this round of elections with 12 of the 40 seats it will be difficult for any other party to become the largest group, let alone command a majority on its own. The final seat Labour are defending is Exwick and that may well be lost to the Liberal Democrats. The Lib Dems have won the last two elections in this ward and so a third is very much on the cards. However, of the three seats the Lib Dems are defending two could fall to the Tories. St Davids will almost certainly be a Lib Dem Hold, but Duryard was won by the Conservatives in 2008 to split the ward. The Tories will also be looking to pick up Alphington on a swing of 2% from 2008, but the absence of a Labour candidate may well help the Liberal Democrats. As for the Conservatives they should defend Pinhoe, Polsloe and Topsham with ease, which would give them 10 seats. However, they only just held off the Labour challenge in Cowick in 2007 so this ward is sure to be a key marginal. Finally, the Liberal Party look pretty safe in Heavitree. It seems entirely conceivable that this round of elections could result in a 12/12/12/4 split, although Labour have a slightly better chance of getting a seat or two clear.

Norwich City Council
LAB	GRN	LD	CON
9	9	4	4
15	13	6	5

In Norwich the fight for control is a two horse race between Labour and the Greens. It's the latter who are in the ascendancy as they have cemented themselves in four wards during the last decade. Mancroft, Nelson, Town Close and Wensum are all safe Green wards and they appear to be targeting the Liberal Democrats' Thorpe Hamlet ward to add to that list. They also made headway in the University ward in 2008 and if they manage to snatch that from Labour then a Green controlled Council would be a very real possibility. Labour have more pressing threats in Catton Grove and Lakenham, where the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats respectively have gained seats from them in recent elections. Labour should be able to hold Corme, Mile Cross and Sewell though, which would leave them with a minimum of 12 Councillors. There's an outside change they'll be able to gain Bowthorpe from the Conservatives, having been close in 2006 and 2007, but the trend in Norwich is one of decline for Labour in recent years. The final ward is Eaton where the Liberal Democrats enjoy a comfortable 10% majority over the Conservatives.

The prospect of the Greens becoming the largest group should be the focus of the Norwich election, but the result in Lakenham will be interesting from a national perspective. This ward, and Exwick in Exeter, will be key indicators as to whether forming this national coalition will lead to losses in LibDem/Labour margianals. Duryard (Exeter), Alphington (Exeter) and Eaton (Norwich) are the wards to watch for evidence of pro-Lib Dem tactical voting disappearing to the Tories advantage. I'll be updating the 'Exeter and Norwich' page on the night as the results come through.

Re-Structuring

As the General Election was over four months ago it seems a little pointless leaving our stab at predicting the event on our limited page space. So we've finally changed it a little up there! Fear not, the posts are still searchable. The GE2010 page has links to the [now buried as blog posts] pages which in turn still link to the numerous Look @ posts. In the next few weeks we'll be utilising the space up there for more topical tables. As you can see now, the previous Exeter and Norwich City Council election results have pride of place. They'll be referenced in a preview post tomorrow and updated on Thursday night. Also, as the ballots have been sent out we will be blogging a bit more about the Labour Leadership battle in the run up to the announcement of the result on 25^th September. We've also got some material to publish on the General and Local election results from may that can go up now we have the space. However, that will probably wait until after this busy period of electoral activity.

By-Election Watch (06/09/10)

Here's our current list of forthcoming by-elections. This will be a busy month from here on in, starting with this Thursday's bumper night of local council elections. Exeter and Norwich City Councils have 13 seats each to fill, and there are four other top-tier by-elections taking place. Also, one Borough and two Town Council vacancies will be filled. Looking further ahead there are 11 more top-tier by-elections this month and the Labour Leadership contest will reach its conclusion.

Council	Type	Ward	Party	Reason	Date
Cumbria	County	Aspatria & Wharrels	Conservative	Death	9th Sep
Edinburgh	Scotland	Liberton/Gilmerton	Labour	MP	9th Sep
Exeter	District	All Wards		Ineligible	9th Sep
Middlesbrough	Unitary	Ayresome	Labour	Personal	9th Sep
Norwich	District	All Wards		Ineligible	9th Sep
Poole	Unitary	Newtown	Lib Dem	Work	9th Sep
Cambridgeshire	County	Cambridge East Chesterton	Lib Dem	Resigned	16th Sep
Hackney	London	New River	Conservative	Death	16th Sep
Kensington & Chelsea	London	Cremone	Conservative	Misconduct	16th Sep
Kensington & Chelsea	London	Earls Court	Conservative	Misconduct	16th Sep
Knowsley	Metro.	Park	Labour	Personal	16th Sep
Nottinghamshire	County	Worksop West	Conservative	Death	16th Sep
Gateshead	Metro.	Lobley Hill & Benshaw	Labour	Death	23rd Sep
Gateshead	Metro.	Saltwell	Labour	MP	23rd Sep
Cheshire East	Unitary	Alderley	Conservative	Death	30th Sep
Durham	County	Brandon	Labour	Death	30th Sep
Gwynedd	Wales	Bowydd & Rhiw	Llais Gwynedd	Personal	30th Sep
Tameside	Metro.	Longdendale	Labour	Death	30th Sep
Gwynedd	Wales	Seiont	Independent	Death	7th Oct
West Sussex	County	Maidenbower	Conservative	MP	7th Oct
Tower Hamlets	London	Mayor		Created	21st Oct
Carmarthenshire	Wales	Cenarth	Independent	Death	TBA
Durham	County	Deneside	Labour	Death	TBA
Hampshire	County	Andover South	Conservative	Death	TBA
Herefordshire	County	St Nicholas	Independent	Death	TBA
Leeds	Metro.	Guiseley & Rawdon	Conservative	MP	TBA
Liverpool	Metro.	Croxteth	Labour	Death	TBA
Medway	Unitary	River	Conservative	Resigned	TBA
Neath North	Wales	Neath Port Talbot	Labour	Death	TBA
Ponteland	County	Northumberland	Conservative	Death	TBA
St Helens	Metro.	Billinge & Seneley Green	Labour	Death	TBA
St Helens	Metro.	Haydock	Labour	Death	TBA
Sheffield	Metro.	Manor Castle	Labour	Death	TBA
Stockton-on-Tees	Unitary	Ingleby Barwick East	IND Group	Resigned	TBA
Stockton-on-Tees	Unitary	Mandale & Victoria	IND Group	Death	TBA
Swansea	Wales	Newton	Lib Dem	Resigned	TBA
York	Unitary	Hull Road	Labour	Illness	TBA

 

Labour hold in Skelmersdale

Last nights by-elections did not provide any shocks. Labour were defending two seats on the West Lancashire District Council; both on the outskirts of Skelmersdale. Labour were expected to hold both seats and they did so with ease. Although the Up Holland ward elected a Conservative in 2008, in this year's election Labour won by a considerable margin. Last nights result was a little closer but their 150 vote victory was comfortable considering the turnout. In Skelmersdale South they weigh Labour's votes rather than counting them! Both newly elected Councillors face the voters again in 8 months time.

As for the Town Council elections the Conservatives held West Ward on the Camborne Town Council (Cornwall), Town on the Sevenoaks Town Council (Kent) and Castle on the Oswestry Town Council (Shropshire). However, they did lose Castle on the Alnwick Town Council (Northumberland) to the Liberal Democrats.

Hopefully this is the calm before the storm – the storm being next week's bumper night of Council election fun! A third of both the Exeter and Norwich City Councils are up for grabs as well as four other top-tier by-elections. I'll be previewing the whole lot over the next week.

By-Election Preview (2nd September)

There are no top tier by-elections taking place today, but there are a couple of vacancies on West Lancashire District Council to be filled. Both are for neighbouring Labour held seats within the Lancashire West Parliamentary constituency, but one is a lot more marginal than the other.

The by-election for Up Holland ward has been called following the death of Labour Cllr. Terry Rice. In 2007 he won his seat by just 27 votes, and Labour subsequently lost to the Conservatives in 2008. However, in May this year Labour easily won the seat with the General Election turnout. With the Conservatives in power locally – they hold 31 of the 53 seats on the Council – and nationally it will be tough for them to make a gain.

The other by-election is also due to the death of a Labour Councillor. Doreen Saxton easily won her Skelmersdale South seat in 2007, and in the two subsequent Council elections her party has enjoyed large victories in this safe seat. It would be a surprise if Labour lost Up Holland… the Tories have little to no chance in Skelmersdale South. In addition, the Labour candidates have enjoyed visits from both Ed Balls and Andy Burnham during their campaigns. I doubt they needed the boost.

There are four Town Council by-elections taking place tonight: West Ward, Camborne TC (Cornwall); Town, Sevenoaks TC (Kent); Castle, Oswestry TC (Shropshire); Castle, Alnwick TC (Northumberland).