Labour hold four and gain one in this week’s local by-elections

Labour had an excellent night of local by-election results as they held all four of the seats they were defending and gained another from an Independent. In the other principle authority elections on Thursday the Greens managed to hold Keith Taylor's old seat in Brighton as the group's former leader now enjoys a seat in the European Parliament.

I'll start in Caerphilly where popular Independent Councillor Keith Etheridge stood down for 'personal reasons'. This gave Labour an excellent opportunity of a gain on this competitive council. Caerphilly Council is run by a minority Plaid Cymru/Independent coalition, and a victory for Labour would mean they held 30 of the 73 seats. I suggested that the personal vote of Etheridge meant that Labour were closer than the numbers suggested and they managed to take the seat with a majority of 76. Cllr. Nigel Dix is again representing the Blackwood Ward he narrowly lost in the 2008 election.

There was another vote in Wales yesterday in which Labour were defending the Tredegar Central and West Ward on the Blaenau Gwent County Council. They easily won this seat in 2008 with Peoples Voice, Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives all running candidates. Those three parties did not contest this by-election leaving Labour with just one Independent to beat to hold the seat. Cllr. Tony Gregory did this with ease as he received 70.5% of the vote.

In London the Chadwell ward of the Redbridge Borough Council was the most likely of the four Labour held seats to fall to an opposition party. The Liberal Democrats held all three seats in Chadwell during the last term but Labour managed to gain them back this May. It would have taken less than a 2.5% swing for the Lib Dems to retake the seat, which seemed possible considering the by-election was triggered because the recently elected Councillor was disqualified as he was employed as a teacher in the Borough. Labour managed to hold the seat quite comfortably in the end with the Lib Dems slipping behind the Conservatives into third place. Cllr. Wes Streeting was elected with a majority of 220 votes.

The by-election in Barking & Dagenham was also taking place because a newly elected Councillor was disqualified. Cllr. Louise Couling was employed by the Council as a Lollipop Lady and so therefore illegible to stand. Couling resigned from her job to contest the re-run and the voters in the Goresbrook ward elected her a second time in as many months. This is an important victory for Labour considering the concerted effort in the area to defeat the BNP. The extremist party did hold 12 seats on the Barking and Dagenham Council during the last term, including two in Goresbrook, but Labour managed to win all 51 seats in May, as well as both Parliamentary seats.

The final seat Labour were defending on Thursday was in Darlington. The by-election for the Cockerton West Ward was trigged when the newly elected Labour MP Jenny Chapman resigned from her Council seat. They were defending a pretty large majority but they almost lost it the Liberal Democrats. Cllr. Jan Cossins just managed to win the seat with a majority of 41. The Lib Dems currently do not hold many seats on Darlington Borough Council so this will be an encouraging performance ahead of next years full Council election.

In other by-election news, the Greens held onto the Council seat vacated by Keith Taylor MEP. He replaced Caroline Lucas MP after his party's leader won the Greens' first seat in Westminster this May. Cllr. Lizzie Deane easily won the by-election by 936 votes. Finally, the Greens lost a seat on the St Ives Town Council (Cambridgeshire) to an Independent.

Caerphilly County Borough Council									Blaenau Gwent County Borough Council
LAB		PC				IND			IND		LAB		PV			LD
30	+1	32		-		11	-1		20	-	15	-	5	-		2		-
Candidate			Votes		Vote %		+/-%		Candidate				Votes				Vote %
Nigel Dix (E)			545		35.4%		+13.6		Tony Gregory (E)				797				70.5%
Claire Louise			469		30.5%		-25.2		Bernard Willis				334				29.5%
Andrew Farina-Childs			355		23.1%		+7.4
Ian Chivers			170		11%		+4.2

 

Redbridge Borough Council									Barking & Dagenham Borough Council
CON		LAB				LD			LAB			BNP		CON			LD
30	-	26		-		7	-		51		-	0	-	0	-		0		-
Candidate			Votes		Vote %		+/-%			Candidate				Votes		Vote %		+/-%
Wes Streeting (E)			800		31.5%		-1.2			Louise Couling (E)				881		46.6%		+3
Gary Monro			580		22.9%		0			Richard Barnbrook				642		34%		+6.8
John Tyne			576		22.7%		-2.7			Felicia Taiwo				136		7.2%		-2.1
Wilson Chowdhry			413		16.3%		+2.4			Paul Ayer				108		5.7%		-7.4
Julian Leppert			115		4.5%		+4.5			Warren Northover				63		3.3%		-3.5
Paul Wiffen			54		2.1%		-5.4			Nobby Manning				50		2.6%		+2.6
										Faruk Choudhrury				11		0.6%		+0.6

 

Darlington Borough Council									Brighton & Hove City Council
LAB		CON				LD			CON		LAB		GRN		LD			IND
29	-	18		-		6	-		25	-	13	-	13	-	2		-	1		-
Candidate			Votes		Vote %		+/-%		Candidate					Votes		Vote %			+/-%
Jan Cossins (E)			388		45.1%		+4		Lizzie Deane (E)					1816		56.8%			+5
Brian Jefferson			347		40.3%		+19.3		Tom French					880		28%			+5.5
David Davies			844		9.8%		-14.8		Rob Buckwell					365		11.4%			0
Paul Thompson			41		4.8%		-8.5		Trefor Hunter					103		3.2%			-5.1
									Gerald O'Brien					32		1%			-5.4

By-Election Preview (8th July)

There are six by-elections taking place today, and one or two could produce some interesting results. We have two in London, two in Wales and one each in the Unitary Authorities of Brighton and Darlington.

The one I expect to be the most interesting is the Chadwell Ward on the London Borough Council of Redbridge. It's being held because the recently elected Councillor, Mark Gittens, was disqualified as he was employed as a teacher in the Borough. The local Labour party claim it was an 'innocent error', but as this mistake has cost the Council thousands of pounds to hold a by-election the electorate may not be too lenient. Two months ago Labour gained 14 seats on the Council forcing, the Conservatives into a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. This coalition has a slim majority so an extra seat would be very welcome. In May Labour gained all three seats in Chadwell off the Lib Dems so they're best placed to take the seat. John Tyne will be their candidate tonight and he'll be hoping to regain the seat he lost in May.

The other by-election in London has also been trigged by a disqualification. This will take place in the Goresbrook Ward for the Barking & Dagenham Borough Council. Louise Couling was one of Labour's 19 newly elected Councillors in Barking & Dagenham after they took all 51 seats in May. In 2006 Goresbrook had elected 2 BNP Councillors and so the result was a ringing endorsement of a great campaign in the area. However, Couling was employed by the Council as a Lollipop Lady and so therefore illegible to stand. She has decided to resign her Council job to contest the re-run but it will be interesting to see how the voters react to cost of the new election. The BNP were the only serious contenders in May, and they have selected their former Councillor Richard Barnbrook to try and regain his seat. Obviously, Labour's majority on the Council won't be affected if they lose, but it will be a moral blow in their ongoing battle with the BNP.

In Brighton there will be a by-election held in the St. Peter's and North Laine Ward. As the Green Party's leader Caroline Lucas has become the MP for Brighton Pavilion she had to resign her seat as an MEP for the South East. Her seat in the European Parliament then shifts to the Green's next candidate on their list, which is Keith Taylor. He happened to be the Councillor for this ward in Brighton and hence the by-election. Follow all that?! St. Peter's and North Laine is where the Green Party's first Brighton Councillor was elected and they'll be hoping to hold onto this symbolic seat. The Council is currently run by a minority Conservative administration and as the nearest challenger here is Labour this election shouldn't affect the balance of power too much. The Greens have a big majority to defend so they should hold on anyway.

There's a similar, but simpler, situation in Darlington where the Council seat vacated by the new Labour MP for Darlington, Jenny Chapman, needs to be filled. Labour should hold her Cockerton West Ward with ease and shore up their smallish majority on the Council.

In Wales there is an interesting contest for the Blackwood Ward on the Caerphilly County Council as popular Councillor Keith Etheridge has stood down for 'personal reasons'. He was popular in the sense that he received almost twice as many votes in 2008 than any other candidate in this multi member ward. But Nigel Dix was less than 150 votes away for gaining a seat for Labour two years ago and so he'll fancy his chances of picking up this seat. The Plaid Cymru/Independent coalition in Caerphilly do not command a majority so if Labour do manage a gain tonight it will be fairly significant to the Council's balance.

Finally, the death of Labour Councillor Derek Morris has triggered a by-election in the Tredegar Central and West Ward on the Blaenau Gwent County Council. The main parties are not contesting this seat, nor are Plaid Cymru or The Peoples Voice. This leaves just one Independent to try and prevent a Labour hold so it's likely their candidate, Tony Gregory, will prevail.

Chadwell (Redbridge)		Goresbrook (Bark. & Dag)
Candidate	2010	Candidate	2010
Wes Streeting (LAB)	30.3%	Louise Couling (LAB)	43.6%
John Tyne (LD)	25.4%	Richard Barnbrook (BNP)	27.2%
Gary Monro (CON)	22.9%	Paul Ayer (CON)	13.1%
Wilson Chowdhry (GRN)	13.9%	Felicia Taiwo (LD)	9.3%
Paul Wiffen (UKIP)	7.5%	Warren Northover (IND)	6.8%
Julian Leppert (BNP)	-	Nobby Manning (UKIP)	-
		Faruk Choudhrury (IND)	-
St. Peter's & N Laine (Brighton)		Cockerton West (Darlington)
Candidate	2007	Candidate	2007
Lizzie Deane (GRN)	51.8%	Jan Cossins (LAB)	41.1%
Tom French (LAB)	22%	David Davies (CON)	24.6%
Rob Buckwell (CON)	11.4%	Brian Jefferson (LD)	21%
Trefor Hunter (LD)	8.3%	Paul Thompson (BNP)	13.3%
Gerald O'Brien (IND)	6.4%
Blackwood (Caerphilly)		Tredegar C & W (B Gwent)
Candidate	2008	Candidate	2008
Claire Louise (IND)	55.7%	Tony Gregory (LAB)	32.6%
Nigel Dix (LAB)	21.8%	N/C (PC)	23.7%
Andrew Farina-Childs (PC)	15.7%	N/C (Peoples Voice)	22%
Ian Chivers (CON)	6.8%	N/C (LD)	21.8%
		Bernard Willis (IND)	-

By Election Watch (05/07/10)

Here's our current list of forthcoming by-elections. As there are six elections to cover I'll preview them later in the week in a separate post.

Council	Type	Ward	Party	Reason	Date
Barking & Dagenham	London	Goresbrook	Labour	Ineligible	8th July
Blaenau Gwent	Wales	Tredegar Central & West	Labour	Death	8th July
Brighton	Unitary	St. Peter's & North Laine	Green	MEP	8th July
Caerphilly	Wales	Blackwood	Independent	Personal	8th July
Darlington	Unitary	Cockerton West	Labour	MP	8th July
Redbridge	London	Chadwell	Labour	Ineligible	8th July
Gwynedd	Wales	Diffwys and Maenofferon	Llais Gwynedd	Arrested	15th July
Surrey	County	Worplesdon	Conservative	Death	15th July
Walsall	Metro.	Bloxwich West	Conservative	Death	15th July
Camden	London	Frognal and Fitzjohns	Conservative	Death	22nd July
Kensington & Chelsea	London	Holland	Conservative	Minister	22nd July
Rhondda Cynon Taff	Wales	Cymmer	Labour	Death	22nd July
Torbay	Unitary	St Mary's with Summercombe	Conservative	Death	22nd July
Wolverhampton	Metro.	Bilston North	Conservative	Death	29th July
Bath & North East Somerset	Unitary	Radstock	Independent	Death	29th July
Cumbria	County	Aspatria & Wharrels	Conservative	Death	TBA
Durham	County	Brandon	Labour	Death	TBA
Gwynedd	Wales	Seiont	Independent	Death	TBA
Knowsley	Metro.	Park	Labour	Personal	TBA
Rotherham	Metro.	Sitwell	Conservative	Death	TBA
Sheffield	Metro.	Woodhouse	Labour	Death	TBA
St Helens	Metro.	Billinge & Seneley Green	Labour	Death	TBA
West Sussex	County	Maidenbower	Conservative	MP	TBA

Lib Dems gain a seat in Shropshire, and hang on in Yeovil

Thursday night was good one for the Liberal Democrats in Council by-elections. The two top tier battles taking place were both caused by Councillors resigning in disgrace in seats the Lib Dems were second last time round, and they managed to take the ward of Clee in Shropshire from the Conservatives. However, in Lambeth Labour had a big enough majority to comfortably hold Tulse Hill in spite of the circumstances. The Liberal Democrats were also defending two wards on Town Councils in David Laws' Yeovil constituency and they'll be pleased to hold onto one of them considering the MPs less than favourable recent media coverage.

The by-election in Clee, Shropshire was triggered because the sitting Conservative Councillor was found guilty of making 'persistent and personal attacks' on a junior employee. Considering the Lib Dems only needed a 0.6% swing to take the seat they would have been fairly confident of a gain here, and it was easily achieved. Richard Huffler won with 60% of the vote; an increase of almost 25%. It doesn't dent the huge majority the Tories enjoy on Shropshire Council, but given their declining polling numbers this result has given the Lib Dems something to celebrate.

Shropshire County Council
CON		LD		LAB			IND
53	-1	12	+1	7	-		2		-
Candidate				Votes		Vote %		+/-%
Richard Huffer (E)				946		60.3%		+23.4
Hayley Fernihough				506		32.3%		-5.7
Graeme Perks				116		7.4%		-17.7

There was also a chance of a gain for the Lib Dems in Lambeth, but this was always going to be a much harder seat to win. Although the sitting councillor was arrested on suspicion of having child porn images on his computer Labour received over 20% more of the vote in Tulse Hill less than two months ago. The by-election result was very comfortable for Labour as Ruth Ling was elected with a majority of 490 votes. The Lib Dems only managed a 1.2% swing which doesn't bode well for them in the forthcoming by-elections in London.

Lambeth Borough Council
LAB		LD			CON			IND
43	-	15	-		4		-	1		-
Candidate				Votes		Vote %			+/-%
Ruth Ling (E)				1235		52.2%			+1.4
Terry Curtis				745		31.5%			+3.8
George Graham				256		10.8%			-1.1
Will Blackburn				94		4%			-5.6
Robin Lambert				36		1.5%			+1.5

As for the rest of last Thursday's by-elections the results for the Central Ward of Yeovil Town Council (Somerset) and the Crimchard Ward of Chard Town Council (Somerset) were the most intriguing. The local press were billing these elections as a test for the local Liberal Democrats in the wake of David Laws' resignation from the Cabinet in May. The results were fairly inconclusive as the Lib Dems held Yeovil with a majority of 351 votes and lost in Chard to an Independent by 59 votes. On balance, I'd say it suggests the party won't be spectacularly losing Paddy Ashdown's old seat at the next election unless something else crops up!

So for a round up of the other by-elections from last week, the Conservatives gained Ribby with Wrea on the Flylde Borough Council (Lancashire) from an Independent and they held Huntington and Hatherton on the South Staffordshire District Council. However, the Tories failed to gain Rainworth from Labour on the Newark & Sherwood District Council (Nottinghamshire) when a swing of just over 3% was all that was required. The Conservatives also lost Shepton West on the Mendip District Council (Somerset) to the Liberal Democrats to round of an inconsistent night for the party. Finally, Labour comfortably held Peel on the Hyndburn Borough Council (Lancashire).

All in all it was a pretty good night for the Liberal Democrats in light of the recent polls. Although they are almost 10 points down on their General Election performance they do not appear to be suffering when the voters head to the polling booths. The third party usually polls poorly during the mid term so it's debatable whether their current figures are much worse than if they were shut out of the debate in opposition. Labour have been doing well in by-elections since the General Election and they'll be hoping this will continue through July. They are defending four seats in top-tier Councils on Thursday, which will be a much sterner test than they've had so far. The Conservatives are facing a tough couple of months in local elections now they're in Government. Their current number of Councillors represents a high watermark achieved whilst in opposition nationally, and they'll struggle to defend every seat against a resurgent Labour Party. The Tories are defending at least 6 wards in top tier Councils later in the month and it will be interesting to see how they fare.