tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post4691676773460076727..comments2024-02-20T08:37:57.138+00:00Comments on Britain Votes: Scotland Votes: Mid Scotland and Fife Part 1: FifeBritain Voteshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00982679942856883673noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-86533301073253342392011-04-29T18:50:07.700+01:002011-04-29T18:50:07.700+01:00I have edited my regional seat analysis and this p...I have edited my regional seat analysis and this post to reflect the comments on this. I would like to thank everyone once again, clearly I made a fairly bum analytical error. It happens.Chris Terryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09108660502775726208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-28799483703212173132011-04-29T18:31:50.161+01:002011-04-29T18:31:50.161+01:00Considering the comments above I'll definitely...Considering the comments above I'll definitely be moving Dunfermline to 'Labour lean' at a later date. Thank you.Chris Terryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09108660502775726208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-72560211500921569992011-04-28T17:35:11.290+01:002011-04-28T17:35:11.290+01:00Basically the list vote decides the number of MSPs...Basically the list vote decides the number of MSPs a party receives unless the party gets more than they should in constituencies. The LDs got 13% in 2007 and 12% in 2003 on the list and ended up with 2 MSPs and with such a swing away from them I don't see how they can get more than one seat in total. If they win NE Fife their list vote gets divided by 2 which would mean they have almost no chance of that vote being enough for another seat but if they don't win NE Fife they should probably just about have enough to get one on the list. In that instance, if they do lose NE Fife then it means the SNP is having a good night so probably couldn't squeeze out another list seat, so the lost LD seat on the list may go to Labour or even in the Greens.Calum Wnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-11323110388967290222011-04-28T10:01:00.412+01:002011-04-28T10:01:00.412+01:00Interesting what might happen on the Regional List...Interesting what might happen on the Regional List if Rowley is the next MSP for Dunfermline. Even with the Libs losing a constituency seat, that doesn't guarantee their No 1 list person, a seat on the list as their support in freefall across both votes.<br /><br />It's complicated system to work out and I get lost with it sometimes , but anyone any idea what might happen on the list for Mid Scotland and Fife ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-84192514669079425042011-04-27T18:19:56.449+01:002011-04-27T18:19:56.449+01:00I agree. Chris seems to be forgetting that the Hol...I agree. Chris seems to be forgetting that the Holyrood elections in 2007 were just a year after Willie Rennie's spectacular by-election win in the equivalent Westminster seat (kind of disproving the notion that the LDs have any real incumbency in this seat)and that this was what provided the basis for the Holyrood gain. Rennie lost his seat comfortably in 2010, and that was with the LDs polling around 18% nationally, so when they're polling 5-9% nationally then I don't see how on earth they can possibly retain Dunfermline. They look to me like being third, as the suburban vote that won this seat for them narrowly swings towards the SNP and also somewhat to Labour. <br />And most of the longstanding Lib Dem councillors, along with Ming, are in the seat where I live, NE Fife, and even here they appear to be struggling to hold off a strong SNP challenge.Calum Wnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-15567223217490475572011-04-27T15:50:25.534+01:002011-04-27T15:50:25.534+01:00Tolson not as popular as you make out, the betting...Tolson not as popular as you make out, the betting has got Lib Dems at 8/1 ... so on that basis they would be third.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-60053185428209293842011-04-20T14:58:36.800+01:002011-04-20T14:58:36.800+01:00To be fair these projections are purely short-term...To be fair these projections are purely short-term, I'll come back and re-evaluate them closer to the day. I certainly see where you're coming from. If Jim Tolson was standing down I might be tempted to call it as 'Labour Safe', my entire reason for calling it as 'Too Close' is entirely because of Tolson. His performance in 2007 was nothing short of spectacular and the Lib Dems get a huge incumbency bonus typically. To get elected in an area like that, as a Lib Dem, on that sort of swing is almost impossible so Tolson must have done something to gain a personal vote, and personal votes tend to solidy once you are in office. This is something Lib Dem's tend to be very good at. My feeling is that throughout the UK the polls are probably largely accurate, but that the Lib Dem vote is probably dropping off more in regions where they don't have incumbent MPs, MSPs, AMs or councillors. The Lib Dem record on incumbency is incredible - Lib Dem incumbent MPs often defy uniform swings to stay in office. The 1979 election is a good example of this actually - the Lib Dem vote halved but they lost only one MP. They have also historically been good at winning by-elections (something that appears to have changed now they are in government) but much less good at holding by-election wins, though I do see your point about Rennie, though I would note that while he was beaten by 5,000 votes he gained almost 15% of the vote. Statistical analysis of Lib Dem swings at the last election also show this incumbency bonus exists at a statistically significant level and is beyond any such factor in any other party.<br /><br />Lib Dem MPs and representatives create a large personal vote for themselves. In a sense there is no other reason a constituency would vote Lib Dem en masse. They are not going to form the government or have the premiership, so what you're left with is 'I like that guy, he seems like a good guy.' So you basically see a series of fiefdoms because Lib Dem MPs often campaign on totally different issues (and sometimes even in contravention of the party manifesto). What that means is that for incumbent candidates there is someone to identify with beyond the Lib Dem leadership. If you are an average voter living in an area like Central Scotland the only Lib Dem you will really see is Clegg. The majority of people don't like Clegg anymore, especially the sort of left-leaning Lib Dems you have in Scotland. You might have some vague knowledge of Tavish Scott, but let's be honest, Tavish Scott is not a man who impresses on anybody a particularly strong sense of self, you might have heard of Hugh O'Donnell, the party's one list MSP in the region but really who knows who their list MSPs are, and equally O'Donnell has now left the party to run as an independent. I watched the Lib Dem PEB and was very interested to note that Nick Clegg was not mentioned or shown once whereas Charles Kennedy delivered a monologue to camera for the last 30 seconds. Fife is different though. You have Tolson, you have Ming Campbell running around, and he's kinda popular in Fife from what I hear, you have Lib Dem councillors. Basically you have people to identify the party with who aren't Nick Clegg. In the seats that the Lib Dems don't hold I'm certain their vote will collapse, but in the seats they do its a harder call. This is ultimately why I called it as a 'Too Close'. <br /><br />Of course, Other Opinions Are Available, as it were.Chris Terryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09108660502775726208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-61762864101518543342011-04-19T18:44:18.670+01:002011-04-19T18:44:18.670+01:00Dunfermline,will go back to Labour,
The ex mining...Dunfermline,will go back to Labour,<br />The ex mining villages are returning strong prefs for Rowley,much the same as last year(for Docherty) when all the Lib Dems thought that W.Rennie would hold on,he was beaten fairly easily by 5000+ votes.To be honest I think that it will pan out as 1st Lab,2nd SNP,and a battle for 3rd and 4th between CON and Lib Dem,i really dont think that folk down South realise how toxic the Lib Dems are (at the moment) are up hereYahoorsurhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18165634885488986746noreply@blogger.com