tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post2761396282021170883..comments2024-02-20T08:37:57.138+00:00Comments on Britain Votes: Battlegrounds 2011 : Plaid CymruBritain Voteshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00982679942856883673noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-16084029189962215432011-05-08T21:31:27.843+01:002011-05-08T21:31:27.843+01:00It seems as though many bloggers and hacks who sho...It seems as though many bloggers and hacks who should have known better fell for the usual Ron Davies hype in Caerphilly - in the end he came nowhere near winning the seat for Plaid; Labour more than doubled their majority to almost 5,000.Alexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-36323088130042401062011-05-01T23:14:12.950+01:002011-05-01T23:14:12.950+01:00Plaid will not win Caerphilly. It'll be close,...Plaid will not win Caerphilly. It'll be close, but the theory of the 2007 plaid vote + 2007 Ron vote = more than Labour is flawed. <br /><br />The Lib vote (2,000 ish) will go to Labour in it's entirety, that takes the Labour vote up to 11,000. There will be people who voted plaid last time, that won't this time due to their candidate being Ron Davies, (I would say around 1,000 ex-plaid will vote Labour for this reason) That takes us to:<br /><br />Labour: 12,000<br />Plaid+Ron: 11,500<br /><br />And that doesn't take into account, the UNS that, as Welshguy mentioned above, will be much more evident in the valleys than anywhere else.<br /><br />Prediction - Labour: 12,500, Plaid: 10,500Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-81989833967237224222011-05-01T09:27:11.706+01:002011-05-01T09:27:11.706+01:00I believe the figures for Carms West and South Pem...I believe the figures for Carms West and South Pembs are incorrect here (no parts of the old Ceredigion seat are here by the way) - the Tories came from nowhere in 2007, to such a degree that nobody was more shocked than Angela Burns herself! <br /><br />The figures are 1999: Lab 35%, Plaid 30%, Tory 18%; in 2003 Lab 35%, Plaid 33%, Tory 21%. <br /><br />I believe the general consensus here is that it will be a close Plaid-Labour battle again, and that the Conservatives themselves aren't very confident here this year. Personally I'd be reluctant to rule them out.<br /><br />Also, I doubt very much that Arfon will be recount territory. Although it was closer last year than many expected, Plaid Cymru *should* still hold on here fairly comfortably. <br /><br />There was a recent poll in Ceredigion putting Plaid about 20% ahead of the Lib Dems, with a surge in the Labour vote, apparently from a reputable source which actally predicted the 2007 Llanelli result within the margin of error. Elin Jones should hold on here fairly comfortably.Hogyn o Rachubhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14216661024544140205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-86927458274629805142011-05-01T09:22:14.996+01:002011-05-01T09:22:14.996+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.Hogyn o Rachubhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14216661024544140205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-58031797621695003292011-04-30T14:08:50.775+01:002011-04-30T14:08:50.775+01:00A big swing from LibDem > Labour doesn't se...A big swing from LibDem > Labour doesn't seem too likely to adversely affect Plaid either. The Lib Dems are virtually nonexistant in most seats where Plaid are the main challengers to Labour (Llanelli, Caerphilly), and vice-versa (Swansea West, Newport East). The obvious exception is Ceredigion, but a swing from Lib > Lab there will make Plaid less likely to lose the seat, not more likely.Welshguynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-9553618194927688072011-04-30T13:18:02.247+01:002011-04-30T13:18:02.247+01:00Not sure I'd say Aberconwy "should change...Not sure I'd say Aberconwy "should change". I think Plaid have at least as good a chance as Labour or the Tories to win it. Labour have never won the seat before - the old seat of Conwy, which they won in 2003, was radically different in terms of boundaries; essentially the seat has lost Bangor (mostly Labour territory) and gained the Conwy valley (mostly Plaid territory) making the new seat much easier for Plaid and the Tories, much harder for Labour (Arfon in turn is easier for Labour to win than Caernarfon ever was). That it will be close is not in doubt, but I suspect Plaid Cymru will keep Aberconwy this year - just.<br /><br />UNS applies less to Plaid Cymru than any other party. There are areas of Wales, especially strong Welsh-speaking areas such as Caernarfon, where the Plaid is very strongly ingrained in the local population (rather like voting Liberal in the Shetland Isles). In the S Wales valleys on the other hand the vote is "softer" - Plaid gained many thousands of votes across the valleys seats in 2007 but Labour's majorities in those areas are so huge that it generally went unreported. If the polls indicate a national swing from Plaid to Labour, my instinct would be that this is mostly Plaid voters in the valleys "coming home" and is unlikely to mean that safe Plaid seats like Arfon or Carmarthen East are in danger. I reckon based on this that their least safe seat is Llanelli.<br /><br />Caerphilly seems the most likely gain this year, mainly for the Ron-factor of course. Other seats to watch from a Plaid-perspective include Islwyn, Rhondda and the Cynon Valley. These are all strong traditionally Labour seats (although Islwyn & Rhondda were won by Plaid in 1999) and I would fully expect them to go that way this time; but they are the kind of seats Plaid need to win if they are to become the biggest party in the Assembly.Welshguynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-19848742734085908342011-04-30T11:49:02.970+01:002011-04-30T11:49:02.970+01:00Labour are in fact 17% behind Plaid in Aberconwy. ...Labour are in fact 17% behind Plaid in Aberconwy. <br /><br />It is the Tories who came second 8% behind Gareth Jones.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com