tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post2002656557666804806..comments2024-02-20T08:37:57.138+00:00Comments on Britain Votes: The Sixth Periodic Review is here!!!Britain Voteshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00982679942856883673noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-16505886620892278702011-09-13T19:52:59.801+01:002011-09-13T19:52:59.801+01:00I have looked at all the current LibDem seats and ...I have looked at all the current LibDem seats and the Guardian's estimate of 14 LD losses is way out . I make it 5 or 6 net losses . 11 or 12 seats lost but 5 or 6 seats gained . There are a number of very marginal seats where the methodology of calculating the notionals is the deciding factor .<br /> On my calculations I still have LD's in a narrow lead in Eastleigh , the Southampton and Test Valley wards moving in to the seat were all LD in 2010 and 2007 respectively . My figures and some other calculations have the LD's in front in BOTH the new Portsmouth seats nut because of the uncertainty re the Havant ward moving into East I have given the Conservatives and LD/s one seat each .Mark Seniornoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-60158279135185551692011-09-13T00:54:26.317+01:002011-09-13T00:54:26.317+01:00In North Staffordshire, it would appear that Labou...In North Staffordshire, it would appear that Labour have slightly tightened their grip on Stoke-on-Trent South, regaining 95% of what was transferred into Stoke-on-Trent Central in 2010, this stays a Labour-leaning borderline marginal. Stoke-on-Trent Central appears to have come off extremely well, gaining three rock-solid Labour areas from Stoke-on-Trent North, which only retains three (Labour) Stoke-on-Trent Wards, and adds 12 Wards from Newcastle-under-Lyme, most of which are traditionally Labour (the Liberal Democrats had made some gains prior to May when they were decimated). This looks to remain a pretty safe Labour seat, but might provoke an intra-Party challenge, as both Joan Walley (Stoke North) and Paul Farrelly (Newcastle) have a significant constituency interest in this seat.<br /><br />Bill Cash's Stone seat disappears entirely, with six Wards placed in the new Newcastle-under-Lyme and Stone seat, along with 12 existing Newcastle Wards. At first glance this looks a pretty safe Conservative seat (which makes me think that Paul Farrelly might be tempted into a run against Joan Walley) conceding this seat to Bill Cash (presuming the veteran anti-EU Tory doesn't opt for retirement). <br /><br />Staffordshire Moorlands remains largely unchanged, and remains on paper a Conservative favoured seat, but one which Labour held between 1997 and 2010 on pretty much the existing boundaries. A lot will depend on whether the towns of Biddulph, Cheadle and Leek revert back to Labour after flirting, at local level at least with Independents and UKIP.<br /><br />Jeremy Lefroy seems to have been reinforced in Stafford, gaining most of the rest of Bill Cash's current Stone constituency and four Wards from South Staffordshire (two of which might, in a good Labour year, marginally increase the Labour vote).<br /><br />I'm not overly familiar with the South of Staffordshire, but note that Cannock Chase seems to be pretty much unchanged, and will take some defending by the Conservatives, after only once before being Conservative (when it included Burntwood and was held by current Aldershot MP and Defence Minister Gerald Howarth) between 1983-87 prior to its surprise switch to the Conservatives last year following the retirement on health grounds of Tony Wright.Tim Mullennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-25233468446900611672011-09-12T20:40:42.838+01:002011-09-12T20:40:42.838+01:00Its interesting to see that Exeter, North Devon, T...Its interesting to see that Exeter, North Devon, Torbay and Tiverton & Honiton are all unchanged. <br /><br />So that means Labour are as you were in Devon, and the Lib Dems have two fairly safe seats (well, as safe as you can get these days).John Ruddyhttp://jruddy.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-87148323897738158262011-09-12T20:40:23.725+01:002011-09-12T20:40:23.725+01:00I have outlined a quick overview of the North West...I have outlined a quick overview of the North West at my blog<br /><br />http://liampennington.blogspot.com/2011/09/boundary-proposals-north-west-england.htmlDoktorbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15236566237119488631noreply@blogger.com